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Added DBA yesterday as it appears to have bullish broken above its recent downtrend resistance. Jul 14, 2011
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Euro and USD each testing key technical trendlines today. See if the US Dollar rally will have longer term legs... Jul 14, 2011
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Sad but true, Archman Jul 13, 2011
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I am now posting under the SA name "Playing the Ponzi"
Test time for US Dollar Rally
It appears to be test time for the US Dollar, should a turnaround from its 12 month slide be in the cards. The Dollar broke out bullishly from a flag pattern last week, only to be rejected at the 23% Fibonacci retracement of last June's high. But has now fallen all the way back to the supporting trendline from its May bottom.
The Euro has rallied back to the bottom of the flag pattern that it bearishly broke under last week. It bounced hard off trendline support from last year's bottom. Will the Euro touch resistance and resume its recent downtrend? Or will the longer term uptrend resume?
The answer, either way, is likely to be telling. It's worth noting that both agriculture (DBA as a proxy) and broad commodities index (DBC as a proxy) look like they broke to upside of short-term trendline resistance yesterday. Is that a clue that the Dollar's recent strength was a headfake?
Commodities break out?
Recently, it looked like a wide variety of commodities were on the cusp of significant technical breakdowns. Fast forward a couple weeks and the script has flipped. DBA (Agriculture) appears to be breaking to the upside of bearish triangle patterns:
Commodities (using DBC as a proxy) had all the makings of a very bearish Head-and-Shoulders, complete with a break under the neckline... only to rally ferociously starting last week. It has now broken above trendline resistance.
And "Dr. Copper" (using JJC as a proxy here) is also pushing higher after breaking above resistance: