If I Could Buy Just One Stock, It Would Be This One [View article]
There are a few reasons why you shouldn't invest in Berkshire right now and the author is spot on. But them not paying dividends shouldn't be one of the reasons. IF you desire an annual income from your investments, you could always sell the requisite amount annually (say 5%) and still find your remaining stocks gaining enough over the next period for the "dividend" sale next year and so on. Does that make sense?
Additionally, you don't pay income tax on this "dividend". Just the cap gains tax which most likely is lower for you.
"... I've realized that it's those "boring" stocks like MCD which are giving me stable returns and appreciation in portfolio value as opposed to the hyped up ..."
100% agree. Lets me sleep better too. The reason I could go do what I do with my "play" money is because I know in my worst case scenario, I'm still covered by what boring stocks like MCD, BRK, DIS are squeezing out for me consistently.
BlackBerry: 3 Million BB10 Units For Breakeven In Q1 FY14 [View article]
@ Guest Eh & Mondego - glad you find my notes helpful. The aim is to offer a little industry perspective that while things are definitely looking up, we're not home free yet.. and yes, I'm still very much a long beyond the year.
@ thecatman: a keyboard tablet? Didn't they try that first before making tablets? Was it netbook or something (10" notebooks)? Didn't quite work.
a phablet + keyboard though, that's something else. A ph-net-blet, anyone?
BlackBerry: 3 Million BB10 Units For Breakeven In Q1 FY14 [View article]
Ember, I would also wish that to be the case, being a BBRY long myself.
However, I'm not quite as confident though... seeing a couple of challenges to that scenario ("Numbers for the Q10 will easily outpace the Z10.").. and very likely to happen so:
1. Z10 sales would have consisted of some previously BB7 users, cannibalizing the full potential of BB7-to-Q10 migration. This means that Q10 sales will not be as high in demand as expected.
2. I have a feeling Q10 will be priced VERY high for the reason that you mentioned (no other keyboard phones out there).. It's a scary scenario. Sure, the margin will be great right?... if it sells. I mean, how many consumer will pay an extortionate amount (anything >$650) for a phone, no matter how great. Moreover, for the subsidised market, Operators will be careful not to over-subsidize as well which will leave the subsidised Q10 uncompetitive vs iPhones, Samsung Notes etc. Worst case, they may not even range the Q10. So, BBRY, if you're reading this, please please please be very clever and prudent with the pricing strategy.
3. BBRY is launching 2 more QWERTY keyboard phones before the end of year, according to Thorsten. All phones will be on BB10 and all will have largely the same functionality. We're talking about largely the same phones with the difference in price possibly to be just availability of "non-critical" features e.g. LTE, storage configurations, camera quality and quality of aesthetics (e.g. plastic vs metal). Again, cannibalization to happen.
4. Lastly, during last quarter, there was for awhile, a supply issue for Z10. Thorstein (or someone) then said they will increase production from 1mil to 2mil(?) units a month. I believe that is already in motion now. Well, this is a gamble in itself. It just raises the stakes. If Q10 sales don't pan out for any reason at all, we're going to find ourselves stockpile of phones that won't move and channels that are stuck. Prices will have to drop to move the products and after everything, damage will already have been done on reputation and sentiments.
But hey, maybe I'm just being overly pessimistic. :)
Truth be told, I still think it's a long road to recovery, there will not be a shotgun recovery and Q10 will not be the trigger for that. People will be disappointed come Q1 results but beyond that, after the bears have their way... then we'll begin to see the true recovery, a steady and unremarkable path to gains again, into 2014 calendar year.
You know what the irony is here... there are 17 comments (so far) and based on my very perceptive and scientific interpretation, most ppl find the article unhelpful... yet, the author is paid nicely by Seekingalpha.
In fact, if Seekingalpha wanted to look into improving the quality of articles and their billing mechanism, it should also take into account stuff like article-based viewership scoring, and not just to reward articles that draws in clicks with interesting / teasing titles but are actually hollow inside.
When I make speculative positions, I try to keep a 123 list of "fallback" rationale to help me sleep better at night. With BBRY, it can't be more true esp on days when I wake up (in Aus) to -11% drops!
So my current "fall back" theories in holding long are: 1. BBRY has stopped bleeding cash. From here, I don't need them to do anything spectacular, just continue breaking even in cash flow and I will have guaranteed book value of $18.
2. Great team. Thorsten Heins' track record has been great so far. I think he's doing a good job in building trust and a rapport with his investors. So far, his words are dependable and seemed to be erring on the side the caution. Prem Watsa. Well, good to have him on side and buying confidently at $17.
3. BBRY an oversold stock. What happens when a stock is overbought? It fizzles and pops at the first less positive news. What happens in the inverse (e.g. BBRY)? How much more can you sell it on bad news. On the other hand, any slight positive sales data / analyst reports / takeover rumours / competitor fkup etc will be enough to nudge it the other way.
Anyway, just a theory. Let's see how it plays out.
Precisely my thoughts. Like +1. Now that the company has show the incredible achievement of turning around this first transition quarter with cash intact (extremely important insight to the management's astute business & financial acumen), that $18 mark being the value of the book, becomes the new $14 mark as the new floor.
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
Noteworthy. It's okay, we all fall down flat on our face and eat some sand once in a while. Reminds us of our fallability, and be acquainted with a noble trait called Humility that's not-so-trendy these days.
Pick yourself up, dust off, pick up your banners and come join us to usher in the era of the BB-bulls.
11 Egregiously Extended Stocks Vulnerable To Rally Reversal [View article]
I've been following LNKD with a modest short interest for awhile since $170. I have to say there's a lot of greater fools around, which is not so good for my position. Actually, they will bleed me out if they keep piling in like that!
I didn't see any big insider trade coming up in edgar nor Morningstar's register, but definitely a signal if the CFO did take his profits.
Oaktree Capital Offers 8.4% Yield Led By Legendary Howard Marks [View article]
Warren Buffett is pretty old. Come to think of it, I have entrusted 60% of my investible wealth with the two guys who is aged 75 yrs old on average. Yikes!?
But I like to think they understand investing like no one else do and they see opportunities and risks where others don't. More importantly, I believe they act in the interest of shareholders and have a credible, proven and competent management team. Part of this belief is that they would have a succession plan in place.
Hope there's some rational logic there somewhere (and not sounding all groupie!)
If I Could Buy Just One Stock, It Would Be This One [View article]
Additionally, you don't pay income tax on this "dividend". Just the cap gains tax which most likely is lower for you.
McDonald's Stock: Buy Or Sell? [View article]
100% agree. Lets me sleep better too. The reason I could go do what I do with my "play" money is because I know in my worst case scenario, I'm still covered by what boring stocks like MCD, BRK, DIS are squeezing out for me consistently.
BlackBerry: 3 Million BB10 Units For Breakeven In Q1 FY14 [View article]
@ thecatman: a keyboard tablet? Didn't they try that first before making tablets? Was it netbook or something (10" notebooks)? Didn't quite work.
a phablet + keyboard though, that's something else.
A ph-net-blet, anyone?
BlackBerry: 3 Million BB10 Units For Breakeven In Q1 FY14 [View article]
However, I'm not quite as confident though... seeing a couple of challenges to that scenario ("Numbers for the Q10 will easily outpace the Z10.").. and very likely to happen so:
1. Z10 sales would have consisted of some previously BB7 users, cannibalizing the full potential of BB7-to-Q10 migration. This means that Q10 sales will not be as high in demand as expected.
2. I have a feeling Q10 will be priced VERY high for the reason that you mentioned (no other keyboard phones out there).. It's a scary scenario. Sure, the margin will be great right?... if it sells. I mean, how many consumer will pay an extortionate amount (anything >$650) for a phone, no matter how great. Moreover, for the subsidised market, Operators will be careful not to over-subsidize as well which will leave the subsidised Q10 uncompetitive vs iPhones, Samsung Notes etc. Worst case, they may not even range the Q10. So, BBRY, if you're reading this, please please please be very clever and prudent with the pricing strategy.
3. BBRY is launching 2 more QWERTY keyboard phones before the end of year, according to Thorsten. All phones will be on BB10 and all will have largely the same functionality. We're talking about largely the same phones with the difference in price possibly to be just availability of "non-critical" features e.g. LTE, storage configurations, camera quality and quality of aesthetics (e.g. plastic vs metal). Again, cannibalization to happen.
4. Lastly, during last quarter, there was for awhile, a supply issue for Z10. Thorstein (or someone) then said they will increase production from 1mil to 2mil(?) units a month. I believe that is already in motion now. Well, this is a gamble in itself. It just raises the stakes. If Q10 sales don't pan out for any reason at all, we're going to find ourselves stockpile of phones that won't move and channels that are stuck. Prices will have to drop to move the products and after everything, damage will already have been done on reputation and sentiments.
But hey, maybe I'm just being overly pessimistic. :)
Truth be told, I still think it's a long road to recovery, there will not be a shotgun recovery and Q10 will not be the trigger for that. People will be disappointed come Q1 results but beyond that, after the bears have their way... then we'll begin to see the true recovery, a steady and unremarkable path to gains again, into 2014 calendar year.
BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]
5 Solid Buys With Reasons To Rally And Room To Run [View article]
I don't remember reading that anywhere. Google didn't turn anything up either.
What Will We Do With BlackBerry? [View article]
In fact, if Seekingalpha wanted to look into improving the quality of articles and their billing mechanism, it should also take into account stuff like article-based viewership scoring, and not just to reward articles that draws in clicks with interesting / teasing titles but are actually hollow inside.
I don't know. Does this make sense?
BlackBerry: The Next Catalyst [View article]
BlackBerry - Is The End Near? [View article]
So my current "fall back" theories in holding long are:
1. BBRY has stopped bleeding cash. From here, I don't need them to do anything spectacular, just continue breaking even in cash flow and I will have guaranteed book value of $18.
2. Great team. Thorsten Heins' track record has been great so far. I think he's doing a good job in building trust and a rapport with his investors. So far, his words are dependable and seemed to be erring on the side the caution. Prem Watsa. Well, good to have him on side and buying confidently at $17.
3. BBRY an oversold stock. What happens when a stock is overbought? It fizzles and pops at the first less positive news. What happens in the inverse (e.g. BBRY)? How much more can you sell it on bad news. On the other hand, any slight positive sales data / analyst reports / takeover rumours / competitor fkup etc will be enough to nudge it the other way.
Anyway, just a theory. Let's see how it plays out.
BlackBerry: The Next Catalyst [View article]
BlackBerry: The Next Catalyst [View article]
Now that the company has show the incredible achievement of turning around this first transition quarter with cash intact (extremely important insight to the management's astute business & financial acumen), that $18 mark being the value of the book, becomes the new $14 mark as the new floor.
Why Blackberry's 3 Million Subscriber Loss May Actually Be Good News [View article]
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
Pick yourself up, dust off, pick up your banners and come join us to usher in the era of the BB-bulls.
11 Egregiously Extended Stocks Vulnerable To Rally Reversal [View article]
I didn't see any big insider trade coming up in edgar nor Morningstar's register, but definitely a signal if the CFO did take his profits.
Oaktree Capital Offers 8.4% Yield Led By Legendary Howard Marks [View article]
But I like to think they understand investing like no one else do and they see opportunities and risks where others don't. More importantly, I believe they act in the interest of shareholders and have a credible, proven and competent management team. Part of this belief is that they would have a succession plan in place.
Hope there's some rational logic there somewhere (and not sounding all groupie!)