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tullii
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Studied: Power Engineering, Exploration Technology, Worked Upstream, Midstream, Downstream in Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Drilling, Refineries. I'm Interested in very big picture, game changers that come from sizeable economic deposits of Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Specialty Metals used in... More
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Tullii LLC
My blog:
Exploration Blog
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CrOblet Creating real opportunity by leveraging energy technology
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  • Iraq Prepares To Inject 800,000 Bbls To Global Supply Next Month

    If the below article comes to fruition, it should send low oil prices even lower, and that will make for a market bottom by July. With Iraq and Saudi squaring off for market share, the price war downward will set up conditions for the 1-1.5% excess supply to be battled out over the next 12-18 months. The June 5 OPEC meeting isn't expected any change in sentiment, so if that materializes and Saudi Arabia maintains their production, Oil supply is going to outpace demand leading to further price declines. This sets up a unique situation only seen once in 30 years and over the June / July period I will shortlist the best exploration picks with a 2-4 year buy and hold or buy and add strategy.

    [ REPOSTED FROM Jeff Reed on Oil Pro ]

    Iraq To Take Oil Market Share Battle To Next Level, Prepares To Inject 800 K/bd To Global Supply

    Iraq plans to increase oil exports to record levels next month, adding to an already saturated global oil market and indicating that Saudi Arabia isn't the only OPEC member dedicated to a market share defense strategy.

    As we have recently reported, all indications are that OPEC will adhere to its market share protection strategy at its upcoming meeting on June 5. Focus has largely and rightfully been on Saudi's adherence to this strategy, as the Royal Kingdom is the titular head of OPEC and sets the strategy for the 12-member group. But Tuesday brings news that Iraq is taking OPEC's market share strategy to a new level, even as it wages an ongoing bloody battle with ISIS militants.

    Iraq plans to increase oil exports by approximately 26% to a record 3.75 M/bpd next month, according to shipping programs seen by Bloomberg. The additional Iraqi exports are equivalent to roughly 800,000 bpd- almost 1% of global daily supply and surpassing OPEC peer Qatar's shipments. This represents a huge addition into already-saturated global market.

    The Bloomberg report notes that while shipping schedules are not concrete indications of future production, they are signs of what may come. Take a look at the following chart, which graphs scheduled tanker loadings (in red) against exports (chart source: Bloomberg & Iraqi Oil Ministry):

    As in recent months, Iraq may not achieve its June objective, as export capacity is now capped at 3.1 M/bpd, Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad al-Nimaa told Bloomberg earlier this month. However, any additional Iraqi supplies mean that OPEC will go even further beyond its 30 M/bpd output quota, according to Morgan Stanley.

    Here's another chart composed by Bloomberg that shows OPEC increasing production in recent months against its 30 M/bpd quota:

    Iraq's plans are especially significant given the country's ongoing battle against ISIS militants. In defiance of the threats posed by the terrorist group, Iraq has been increasing exports both from the Shiite south and the Kurdistan region in the north.

    http://oilpro.com/post/13589/iraq-to-unleash-tidal-wave-oil-into-global-market?utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_term=2015-05-27&utm_content=Article_2_txt

    Tags: OIL, WZGRF
    May 27 3:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Taranaki Basin Well Hits 7800 BBL/day For Cue Energy

    (source: Rigzone)

    Australia's Cue Energy Resources Ltd. announced Tuesday that production from the Maari MR6A development well in the Taranaki Basin, offshore New Zealand has been brought on stream, with an initial production rate of approximately 7,800 barrels of oil per day (bopd).

    The optimal production rate will be determined after several weeks of production history, taking into account reservoir management considerations. The Maari Field is currently producing approximately 14,000 bopd.

    Production commenced March 21 from the previously undeveloped Mangahewa Formation reservoir unit in the Maari Field. The well was drilled horizontally to a total depth of 15,016 feet (4,577 meters) of which approximately 4,265 feet (1,300 meters) was completed in very high net-to-gross, good quality reservoir section, as indicated by well log data.

    Based on initial production and currently available information the well is anticipated to meet or exceed pre-drill expectations and materially contribute to field production. The Maari Growth Project offshore Taranaki in New Zealand is being conducted to increase reserves, production, and recovery from the Maari field.

    Significant undeveloped reserves remain at Maari and Manaia and the additional development will enable extraction of these reserves.

    The Ensco 107 (400' ILC) jackup is now drilling the MR7A well to provide an additional in-fill producer in the Moki formation.

    Participants in the PMP 38160 Joint Venture are: Cue Taranaki Pty Ltd. - 5 percent Horizon Oil International Ltd. - 10 percent (a subsidiary of Horizon Oil Ltd.) Todd Maari Ltd. - 16 percent OMV New Zealand Ltd. (Operator) - 69 percent - See more at:

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/137809/First_Oil_Flows_from_Offshore_Maari_MR6A_Development_Well_in_Taranaki_Basin#sthash.wsl5GW3h.dpuf

    Tags: CUEYF
    Mar 24 3:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Albania Offers Steep Discounts From Same Time A Year Ago.

    (click to enlarge)

    PENYF (Petromanas) has a Market Cap of $38,153,210

    and yet over $260,000,000 has been invested in

    Blocks 2-3 alone.

    ~$260 million

    To me this has real value if you can look at it from a longer term perspective.

    I try to look at it this way, 85% of the $260MM already invested is now discounted in the current share price; partly due to the market perception of what a Barrel is worth at this moment in time, and partly what a USD will buy in comparison to other currencies in a basket at this moment in time.

    Were either of those metrics to change, the price of oil, or the weakness of the USD then this play and its prospective 500MM barrel discovery metrics would change too.

    Said another way you can enter into a play at 15% the cost of what other people already invested, and you will perhaps be rewarded in due time (2-3 years) to re-capture the invested value plus a healthy additional premium of whatever the future may hold.

    However you have to pay to play, and what you pay today is allowing your dead money to sit in the company account to be used how they see fit, and there is risk involved.

    You might see some dilution if they decide to raise equity later in the year after Q3, or you might get re-valued by a reverse split, or you might see them farm-down 10-15% to Shell Oil in order to raise capital sufficient to carry the exploration wells through to completion.

    One positive is that; Shell Oil cancelled a lot of exploration projects around the world after oil prices fell in 2014, but for some reason, they haven't cancelled Albania. This might not be worthy news to some, but its a key factor in how much potential unknown oilfield discoveries still temp these super-majors.

    My take on it, even in these terrible markets, the prize is worth the long term gain.

    Shell thinks 20-30 years ahead and perhaps so should you, but the quantity of potentially new 500MM barrel oilfields to be found within European borders over the next few decades is slim, which accentuates its potential.

    (click to enlarge)

    Last weeks Petroleum Summit in Albania indicated that Albpetrol the country's state oil company is likely to be put up for sale in the near future.

    This will likely see bidders from SuperMajors who would rather renovate an existing oil producer than build one from absolute scratch. When the auction comes, the price of Albpetrol will give indications of what the future barrels and acres of Petromanas might fetch.

    Time is a factor as well, these wells are very deep, very expensive and take over 1 year to drill on average. So keep that in mind, investors are going to need to be quite patient on this one.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    We can see comparable geology in ALBANIA, which has impressive production even decades later. This is very compelling compared to a BAKKEN oilfield which experience deep declines in production... the Italian fields are still banging out thousands of barrels per day decades later. This creates forward looking investors a compelling value proposition.

    (click to enlarge)

    The empty well site below represents the Shpirag 3 site. Which is supposed to Spud (start drilling) in 2015.

    It will take 1 year at least and when completed it will test the reservoir parameters that are helping prove up the size of the prize in blocks 2-3.

    It will be followed by completing the M-1 or Molisht-1 well which was suspended in 2014 due to needing a higher Horsepower Rig.

    When M-1 is finished, likely in 2016, it will be flowing barrels from geology that has yet to see a drill bit, and that means we could be witness to a new multi-decade long producer that will change the economics of not just Shell and Petromanas but Albania as well.

    The final punch line is Golemaj, which although a longshot resides some 17Km away from the other wells which if successful and if connected to same geologic structure would translate to perhaps the largest discovery in continental Europe in 50 years or forever.

    So although we might not see 4 flowing wells until 2020, we should have an idea what the prize is by 2017, and between now and then lots of newsworth ups and downs to trade, add, take profits, or downsize your positions.

    and while we wait on Albania, we still have 2 other developments...

    (click to enlarge)In France

    (click to enlarge) In Australia

    Mar 24 3:27 PM | Link | Comment!
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