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tullii
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Studied: Power Engineering, Exploration Technology, Worked Upstream, Midstream, Downstream in Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Drilling, Refineries. I'm Interested in very big picture, game changers that come from sizeable economic deposits of Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Specialty Metals used in... More
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UNDER CONSTRUCTION TIL 2015
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CrOblet Creating real opportunity by leveraging energy technology
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  • Molisht-1 Nears TD

    As Molisht-1 nears total depth, excitement grows for investors who have anticipated the coming weeks as this well nears completion and testing. You can click below to read previous posts on this play.

    By year end, the M1 well test results should be released. Right now investors are anticipating an updated on the drilling of M1 and how close it is to Total Depth.

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    For now we focus on just Blocks 2-3 in Albania.

    A little Backstory:

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    Josef Schachter announces PMI as a pick as they spud the M1 well.

    Knowing that until M1 is drilled, the reservoir is still a prospect.

    This is a rough timeline of where we are at, and its been an entire year of drilling.

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    Shell covers first $50MM at M1 then PMI cover its 25% of costs after the first $50MM. Its expected to cost upto $70MM

    (The additional 25% cost shell $22MM up front)

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    DMW was previously called 'Manas' and PMI bought into the play in 2010 they named the company Petromanas. Back in 2007, Manas hired a consultant to evaluate the blocks 2-3, at that time they put a 36% chance of success on exploration wells in these blocks. (click to enlarge)

    However, using western technologies, PetroManas struck oil on S2 but not without several costly sidetracks and learning incidents. They acheived success to a degree on S2 and haven't repeated errors on M1 thus far.

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    (Click to watch PetroManas video on why they target carbonates)

    Link to "The most anticipated well of 2014"

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    Second BNN interview June 2014 click image to watch video

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    So with M1, we identify the potential of 18km in length upto A-A (position 2 above) Then Shpirag 2 will further define the sub-thrust play in 2015. Down the road in position 4 there is also potential that an additional 17Km of structure is possible and that isn`t even being talked about at the moment. You get goosebumps even thinking about it.

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    If you look at the chart of Bankers Petroleum you will see it did quite well in its heavy oil play in Albania. The patos marinza is where bankers is drilling, here is a history of that oilfield.

    But the Heavy Oil which Bankers is targeting is not what Petromanas is after. PMI is after light oil, which trades at a premium and is desired by refineries worldwide. Finding a monster sized deposit in the region of europe that Albania is situated presents a huge opportunity for all its neighbors in europe.

    I get a number of emails asking how we can know there are millions or billions of barrels beforehand. I`m not qualified as a reservoir expert by any stretch, but for the layperson its important to have an idea how this reservoir modelling works. I`ll offer what i can.

    Essentially, Data is gathered before, during and after the drilling of a well. Real data from the wellbore can be mixed with synthetic seismic data to create an approximation or model. An idea of how that would possibly work is offered below.

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    Without getting into the science of it. Real well data and synthetic data can be used to create a picture of what might lie below. A best guess using advanced computers can create a scenario for discussion.

    This image is not from Albania, and has zero to do with PMI so don`t construe anything other than it is possible to create models with the best available data and produce Original Oil in Place numbers that can be an approximation of what lies below ground.

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    Assuming that you can tie together the REAL data with SYNTHETIC data and get some concept of what is going on in the reservoir, you might paint a picture that indicates how much potential the oil reservoir holds. This is the essence of exploration - answering unanswered questions, moving towards a clearer picture.

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    If the data suggests ideal numbers, the project scale may get increased and more wells drilled, more data collected and better results are possible once you answer questions with the drill bit.

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    A simple objective is to use all this modelling to decide how to proceed in the Field, where the rubber meets the road and success or failure is the outcome of a whole pile of research, engineering and application of exploration technology.

    Stay tuned...

    Petromanas also has acreage in France and Australia and it won't hurt them that Apache just announced a large discovery in the Canning basin.

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    It is also noteable that RDS.A mentioned Albania in their address to Shareholders as being "important wells" to Shell in Q4 2014.

    Disclosure: The author is long RDS.A.

    Aug 14 4:50 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • PETROMANAS Rebounds As Quarterly Updates Are Near Reporting

    The past few trading sessions were dismal for Petromanas.

    With no update, no news and for no apparent reason, shares were tanking downwards?

    In what appeared as either a early shakeout (for triggering stop losses), or nervous nellies dumping their positions prior to going into the next quarterly update.

    Perhaps its was the Central Bank missing a mere $6.75 Million!

    If you want to know more about Albania, click the Cia link below

    No one seems to have a certain answer, but then today a newsletter writer suggested the old 'shaking a tree' analogy and the markets reacted with a 7% rebound on the shares and 28% rebound on the warrants. This tested shareholders resolve and now we seem to have a support price going into the next news flow.

    By this point I'll assume you know the PMI / PENYF story already and if you don't you can read more about it here...

    It helps that overseas the Balkans reports that Oil is flowing for all the other companies in Albania at a record pace. You can see below many players have set up shop in Albania. Blocks 2-3 onshore are where Shell and PMI have secured their exploration permits.

    You'll notice above Bankers Petroleum is chasing Heavy oil on Block F and has been re-investing up to $300MM annually in their PatosMarinza oilfields. Their investments have paid off and now Albania is reaching record energy production as you can see below.

    (click to enlarge) LINK

    All of which takes us back to PMI, who are drilling ahead to complete an exploration well chasing light oil in Albania.

    (SHARES - CDN)

    (WARRANTS - CDN)

    (Price History: Back in Feb when Shpirag 2 was deemed a discovery)

    (Several recent selloff days with no news,dubbed "Shaking the tree" )

    (July 30 rebound)

    (Shares Rebound Today 07/30/2014)

    (Warrants rebounded as well on low volume)

    (The USA Symbols)

    There are lots of sources to compare notes but you will find most lead to the same conclusions..

    Frank Holmes contributes at the Energy Report he also went to Albania earlier in the year, and he operates a Mutual Fund firm in the USA called U.S. Global Investors (see funds below) which holds shares in PMI. However the funds are $5K minimum USD to buy.

    c

    Frank Holmes (NYSE:R) is shown below with

    fellow investor Frank Guistra (NYSE:L)

    (This is the company with funds managed by Frank Holmes)

    A few other resources for you..

    CEO.CA has many historical posts and has been covering the play since inception. The above post re-affirmed that no apparent reason for the selloff was warranted.

    This Newsletter posting could have helped re-trigger the rebound today with the quick analysis of charts and support levels. Either way the shares and warrants rebounded.

    For entertainment this blog has some interesting albeit sometime rude and often misinformed characters posting as well, if you are new here please don't take any advice from a chat board without consulting a certified analyst first. It can be informative, but is not a source to make decisions on without checking credentials first.

    At any rate, it will be many months before any real decision making results provide proof or disprove this albania oil discovery.

    Jul 30 6:21 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Bitcoin Summit Reveals Interesting Metrics On Its Early Acceptance

    At the recent Bitcoin Conference in London, the worlds most interesting class of entrepreneurs gathered to discuss building the infrastructure, apps, wallets and security services for Digital Currencies.

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    At that conference this slide deck was shared with the audience and now the State of Bitcoin as of Q2 2014 is yours to read.

    What is an Oil Exploration blog doing sharing a Bitcoin presentation?

    Well Oil is traded in USD globally, any disruption to OIL, the USD or the metrics that affect any markets in which Oil or Currency is traded in is of side interest to me.

    After scanning through this presentation I think that you may take this new disruptive technology a tad more seriously as its no fad, and its not high school kids financing these multi-million dollar start-ups.

    This is now a serious technology with a fair bit of runway built with global impact and its happening whether you like or not, and whether you understand it or not, and whether you are ready for it or not.

    Here is the presentation from the CoinSummit in London.

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    Jul 18 5:53 PM | Link | Comment!
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