Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
In general I agree the US stock market is at a high level. But I do not believe it is a bubble. My definition of a bubble is something that will not recover once it is burst for a very long time or never. Many bubbles never recovered like the tulip, south asia trading, or even the DOT COM. Most of the dot com companies have went bankrupted and the rest together is still 40% below its peak.
BlackBerry Sales Are Sliding, But Are Still Higher Than Street Expectations [View article]
I am long $BBRY I agree with your view on Z10. I am very negative on Z10 and I am going to wait for 6 months to see the actual data. The Z10 is really not a good phone as compared with even the iPhone 5 and is way behind all the other new android and window phones. It has very little cpu and graphic power to run any app that is cpu or display intensive. The only reason why the UI is not slow is due to the 2G memory. (only newer phones like the s4 has 2G older phones like the iPhone has 1G) The q10 on the other hand has no competitor and has a good chance to at least keep all those who wants a real keyboard. They also can keep all those companies that are very conservative that will not change (like many government, Boeing etc.)
Apple: Consider It For 20-25% Upside Before It Embarks On A New Product Cycle [View article]
The last report I have on apple iPhone screen size was 4.7 and 5.7. If their reason (I believe it is marketing BS) for not having a larger screen is "quality" then why 5.7? (market size for 5.7 is now very small) The 5 inch size now is the most popular size other than what the iPhone size is now. Why not 5 inches. Well Apple has their ego problem again. They want to do it their way and sometimes it is not good. Their last usb connecter is one example of very bad choice and now that result in 2 USB cables for all apple products. Their waste of space with only one home button while all other phones has at least 3 buttons or one button and 2 more icon is more practical. Why waste the space? Again Apple's ego is too big. The $NOK 512 which sells in the US for $129 is a very good low cost smart phone and it sold out quickly for a while. Apple should be able to have a smartphone that sells at that price for other developing countries. BTW for all you Apple fan boys iPhone is no longer a designers label in most countries now. Market share now is the key for the future.
Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
Before earning report I will buy call options most likely one to two months out. If the price of the stock drops I'll take my lost ASAP. If the price did not drop or went up I'll use those options to write cover weekly calls.
Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
First of all I enjoy the article and do believe you have a very balance view point that I in general agree with. I only have one different take on options with $bbry. I was attracted to trade $BBRY mostly for the option premium. I can get 2% on the weekly at the money options and that is more than any other stock or even the 2x etf's. That premium have not change in the last 3 months. Usually option premium peaks for earning reports and reduced right after the report. So compare with what has been the the high premium of the stock options shorting any options that expired after the earning report is not as good a deal as compare to those that is before the earning report. (It is still a good deal because the premium is still very good) My current plan is getting out of all my covered call and short puts by Friday. I will hold only stock the last week. Just before earning report I'll decide how many call options I will buy. I am now giving a 2.5 to 1 odd that the earning report will be good and a 2 to 1 odd that stock price will gain after the earning report. (also as a side issue I suspect some institute or market maker that short $bbry stock may also short the call option.)
Why Intel Could Be Worth $50 A Share By 2017 - The Bull Case [View article]
Excellent article Intel is a stock for conservative investors and is extremely good for retirement accounts. It is not a fast moving or fast growth stock. Buy and hold Intel for the long run is a good choice. If you believe the market is high right now or it will not go up much in the next few years then Intel cover call (slightly out of money} is a good strategy also. I usually not just look at target price but look at the probability curve for the target price. Usually they are a simple normal distributional bell shape curves. In Intel's case the lower end is much smaller than the high end. (Apple has almost no lower end tail due to cash holding) It is a very good curve for cover call. So I am also using Intel cover calls (in the money) as an alternative to cash.
Argentina's YPFwill join Venezuela's offshore Deltana Platform natural gas project along with state oil company PDVSA and Chevron (CVX), Venezuela's oil minister says. Deltana is intended to extract and export natural gas from fields believed to hold some 7T cu. ft. Details on the size of YPF's stake are not revealed, but a portion of Deltana gas will be exported to Argentina. [View news story]
I believe that is more of a political issue than financial. I also would like to post here in SA that I will no longer comment on CVX any more in the future. I am long and will be long in CVX for the long term. My wife has just sign an agreement with CVX to not trade CVX due to her new project with access to financial data. I have never talk to my wife about any CVX business in the pass 25 years but I just want to make sure there is absolutely no conflict of interest. I will stop trading CVX and talk about CVX from now till my wife retired from CVX. Good luck to you all who is long in CVX for the long term. CVX is really an exceptional company very close to IBM in the 80's. I like their attitude of safety first. Employee's bonus will be reduced even if a very small amount of time lost due to job related safety issues. They even inspect the cubical every month just to make sure there are no safety issues. CVX is not perfect. I disagree with their cost saving moves by both moving operations and out sourcing their IT functions. I also disagree with their hiring too many contractors doing IT functions. Almost all other companies in the US are doing the same thing or even more. I feel sad for the next generation.
The Case Of The Bid-Button Happy BlackBerry Short Seller [View article]
I stop reading when you set a one year target of 30. You have 1% chance to be right I saw an old blackberry for the first time in months. Employee of Boeing. I am in Seatle this week If I tell you my Verizon store told me they have not sold even one q10 you probably will insult me like "canadian forever". It is the store at the great mall in Mulpitas California. Go check it out yourself.
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
I do not care if gold fluctuate more in the near future. I am always going to support anyone to have 5% of their asset in gold. I learn that from my father 50 years ago. There will be times in the future that a lot of unrest shock the world. Those 5% in gold is your insurance. Most people have a lot of insurance for their house, car health, life, long term care etc etc etc. How about looking at gold as just an insurance against unrest in the world. I am shorting puts in gld and I'll take them if price drop.
How Much Is Intel Spending To Beat Physics? [View article]
good article from a young man. a master degree or even a ph D degree in EE is not required to understand semiconductors. I have a M Sc. in EECS and was a Ph. D. candidate before I drop out to enter the real world of engineering. That did not help me to be better informed about chips. The key for Intel is lower power consumption for smartphone, tablet and ultrabooks. They already have enough for the server and desktops.I give intel a 95% chance to outperform the market in 1 to 3 years time frame. I believe Intel is one of the best stocks for retirement accounts with interest rate going up in the next 3 years The only negative I have about Intel is they now have a few more "BS" types in their engineering management and that drives those real working engineers crazy. One of my friend left Intel because of this.
Nokia Will See No More Mercy From Apple [View article]
Microsoft has many great enterprise software. The one bad one is hyper V. Hyper V really sucks big time. It crash even in the only instructor led lab at Tech ED. Other users told me the same thing. They all want Hyper V because it is so much cheaper than VMware but the performance is extremely bad.
Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
But I do not believe it is a bubble. My definition of a bubble is something that will not recover once it is burst for a very long time or never. Many bubbles never recovered like the tulip, south asia trading, or even the DOT COM. Most of the dot com companies have went bankrupted and the rest together is still 40% below its peak.
BlackBerry Sales Are Sliding, But Are Still Higher Than Street Expectations [View article]
I agree with your view on Z10. I am very negative on Z10 and I am going to wait for 6 months to see the actual data. The Z10 is really not a good phone as compared with even the iPhone 5 and is way behind all the other new android and window phones. It has very little cpu and graphic power to run any app that is cpu or display intensive. The only reason why the UI is not slow is due to the 2G memory. (only newer phones like the s4 has 2G older phones like the iPhone has 1G)
The q10 on the other hand has no competitor and has a good chance to at least keep all those who wants a real keyboard. They also can keep all those companies that are very conservative that will not change (like many government, Boeing etc.)
Apple: Consider It For 20-25% Upside Before It Embarks On A New Product Cycle [View article]
The 5 inch size now is the most popular size other than what the iPhone size is now. Why not 5 inches. Well Apple has their ego problem again. They want to do it their way and sometimes it is not good. Their last usb connecter is one example of very bad choice and now that result in 2 USB cables for all apple products. Their waste of space with only one home button while all other phones has at least 3 buttons or one button and 2 more icon is more practical. Why waste the space? Again Apple's ego is too big.
The $NOK 512 which sells in the US for $129 is a very good low cost smart phone and it sold out quickly for a while. Apple should be able to have a smartphone that sells at that price for other developing countries. BTW for all you Apple fan boys iPhone is no longer a designers label in most countries now. Market share now is the key for the future.
BlackBerry: Z10 Likely To Fail, Q10 And Q5 Give Hope [View article]
Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
I only have one different take on options with $bbry.
I was attracted to trade $BBRY mostly for the option premium. I can get 2% on the weekly at the money options and that is more than any other stock or even the 2x etf's. That premium have not change in the last 3 months. Usually option premium peaks for earning reports and reduced right after the report. So compare with what has been the the high premium of the stock options shorting any options that expired after the earning report is not as good a deal as compare to those that is before the earning report. (It is still a good deal because the premium is still very good)
My current plan is getting out of all my covered call and short puts by Friday. I will hold only stock the last week. Just before earning report I'll decide how many call options I will buy.
I am now giving a 2.5 to 1 odd that the earning report will be good and a 2 to 1 odd that stock price will gain after the earning report.
(also as a side issue I suspect some institute or market maker that short $bbry stock may also short the call option.)
Intel: Does The Memory Business Make Sense? [View article]
Intel's 14 Nanometer: Setting The Record Straight [View article]
I predict and hope Intel stock price will stay in a slow up trend of 5% above the market.
Why Intel Could Be Worth $50 A Share By 2017 - The Bull Case [View article]
Intel is a stock for conservative investors and is extremely good for retirement accounts. It is not a fast moving or fast growth stock.
Buy and hold Intel for the long run is a good choice.
If you believe the market is high right now or it will not go up much in the next few years then Intel cover call (slightly out of money} is a good strategy also.
I usually not just look at target price but look at the probability curve for the target price. Usually they are a simple normal distributional bell shape curves. In Intel's case the lower end is much smaller than the high end. (Apple has almost no lower end tail due to cash holding) It is a very good curve for cover call.
So I am also using Intel cover calls (in the money) as an alternative to cash.
Argentina's YPF will join Venezuela's offshore Deltana Platform natural gas project along with state oil company PDVSA and Chevron (CVX), Venezuela's oil minister says. Deltana is intended to extract and export natural gas from fields believed to hold some 7T cu. ft. Details on the size of YPF's stake are not revealed, but a portion of Deltana gas will be exported to Argentina. [View news story]
I also would like to post here in SA that I will no longer comment on CVX any more in the future. I am long and will be long in CVX for the long term. My wife has just sign an agreement with CVX to not trade CVX due to her new project with access to financial data. I have never talk to my wife about any CVX business in the pass 25 years but I just want to make sure there is absolutely no conflict of interest. I will stop trading CVX and talk about CVX from now till my wife retired from CVX. Good luck to you all who is long in CVX for the long term. CVX is really an exceptional company very close to IBM in the 80's. I like their attitude of safety first. Employee's bonus will be reduced even if a very small amount of time lost due to job related safety issues. They even inspect the cubical every month just to make sure there are no safety issues. CVX is not perfect. I disagree with their cost saving moves by both moving operations and out sourcing their IT functions. I also disagree with their hiring too many contractors doing IT functions. Almost all other companies in the US are doing the same thing or even more. I feel sad for the next generation.
The Case Of The Bid-Button Happy BlackBerry Short Seller [View article]
You have 1% chance to be right
I saw an old blackberry for the first time in months.
Employee of Boeing.
I am in Seatle this week
If I tell you my Verizon store told me they have not sold even one q10 you probably will insult me like "canadian forever". It is the store at the great mall in Mulpitas California. Go check it out yourself.
Nokia Will See No More Mercy From Apple [View article]
Someone should write an article with a title Apple will see no more mercy from sony in Japan for smartphones
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
I am shorting puts in gld and I'll take them if price drop.
How Much Is Intel Spending To Beat Physics? [View article]
a master degree or even a ph D degree in EE is not required to understand semiconductors. I have a M Sc. in EECS and was a Ph. D. candidate before I drop out to enter the real world of engineering. That did not help me to be better informed about chips.
The key for Intel is lower power consumption for smartphone, tablet and ultrabooks. They already have enough for the server and desktops.I give intel a 95% chance to outperform the market in 1 to 3 years time frame.
I believe Intel is one of the best stocks for retirement accounts with interest rate going up in the next 3 years
The only negative I have about Intel is they now have a few more "BS" types in their engineering management and that drives those real working engineers crazy. One of my friend left Intel because of this.
Nokia Will See No More Mercy From Apple [View article]