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  • Citigroup and Visa take AmEx's spot with Costco [View news story]
    I for one most likely will not use AMX after march 2016. I only use it for COSTCO.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Roth Advantage No One Talks About [View article]
    I think the abuse for the retirement account are by the wealthy who owns business or people who took loopholes like hedge fund managers and have something like 100 million dollars in their tax defer accounts. There should be a limit of how much you can have total so that you cannot put something into the account and valued them so low that you get away with having so much money into the tax shelter. regular people do not have much in their Roth account that the government should worry about.
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At $159, Can Wynn Be A Solid Bottom Fish Now? [View article]
    I was at Wynn Las Vegas last month for 4 nights for a conference. I was told most of the rooms were occupied. But the casino was pretty empty. We found a coupon for a room rate of $129 with 2 free buffet (breakfast or lunch) each day. The poker room is very quite. The top table is a 2/5 NL hold them. The problem is that there is only one table that is full and have action. The second table average 5 players that is playing and no action. They cannot get the 5/10 table started.
    My understanding is Macau will not recover for the next 2 years. 65% of their income are from VIP high rollers. As of today about 1/2 of the VIP rooms have shut down and out of business. The rest is sucking air. So even if all the rooms are full are useless.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of Market Tops [View article]
    Today the key difference is money supply. After the US pump all the new money into the world now is Japan and EU. Both Japan and EU are printing money like there is no tomorrow. China may have no choice to start pumping money because it cannot stand slowing of economy and the appreciation of the Yuen. The US also now cannot afford to have the dollars keep going up and so the US cannot raise interest rate. Where do you think all those money are going? Not much into new business or infrastructure. All going into the stock market. That is why stock market in most part of the world are going higher every month. Most are at record high. It will end someday but I do not know when. As long as I do not see interest rate going up and central banks stop printing money I believe stock market all over the world will continue to go up. The few exception are war and countries that is heavily depending on oil or commodity.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying LQD Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    great comment. thanks.

    I just read an article that someone want the SEC to investigate the bond market just on what you said. There is really no transparency at all in the price you buy or sell. The mark up is sometimes ridiculously high. Not only that you cannot really know if you get a quote to buy or sell how much is the mark up. For stock and options you can see the ask and the bid price.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Roth Advantage No One Talks About [View article]
    The debate about weather you should put your money into Roth or regular retirement account is quite complicated. There are many factors as they are mostly related to income tax. But one thing that is not related to income tax is the amount you can put away. You can in theory put away more money into your Roth because you paid your tax already.
    In general if you think your income tax rate is high while you work and is lower after you are past 70 then using regular IRA is better. Also keep in mind where you are going to live at 70. Say you work in new York city and plan to retire to a state that has no income tax on retirement funds your saving in tax could be even more.
    Another consideration is how high or how low the stock market is. If the stock market is at a low point like 2009 to 2011 then put your money into Roth (or do Roth conversion) is a good idea. You have better chance of capital gain when the market is low. Today when the market valuation is high you have less of an advantage.
    Also if you retire before 70 and you have a few years of not much earning you should do Roth conversion to pay some gains at lower tax rate.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Trapped Between A Rock And A Hard Place [View article]
    I have posted in the past that CVX stock is tie to the oil price. Now that oil price is at a very low level but other than very short term in the US the over all oil price probably will not go down much from here. Now CVX stock price is more related to its dividend than oil price. I learn that from watching IBM. IBM as a company has gone down by a lot but the dividend has keep going up and that supported the stock price. I also believe there will be some great opportunity to add to CVX in the next 12 months. Don't get me wrong because I know quite a bit about CVX and it is far from perfect. It has a lot of weaknesses that most people do not know. What I like most about CVX is their employee and most of them are very motivated and work hard to get things done. This is especially true in the US. They also have a lot of highly skilled people although they are losing a lot of them in the IT area due to retirement. But their engineering departments are great.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron raises $6B in biggest oil bond deal since rout [View news story]
    I believe CVX will increase its dividend this year and its stock price has a low protect at 95 no matter how low oil price go.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's One Hundred Year History Is About Cash, Culture And Mutualism [View article]
    In the tech industry it is always base on highly motivated employees. IBM today cannot attract any young talent. I have not heard of anyone in the SF bay area even mention IBM as a potential company they are looking at joining.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's One Hundred Year History Is About Cash, Culture And Mutualism [View article]
    I never thought anyone would have the guts to write an article like this about how IBM was , its history and how it is today.
    This is one of the best article I have read about IBM.
    I have personally see the changes in IBM in the last 40 years and my heart was broken long time ago. IBM was the best company in the world 30 years ago and is now one of the worst as in the tech industry.
    I have many true stories about how IBM treat their employees that have warm my heart in the 70"s and the 80"s. and I can never imagine it will be a company that will contribute to the 401k plan at the beginning of next year to people who is still with the company on December 31. IBM even cut employee salaries by 10% instead of letting them go to force them to leave on their own so that they can save on the little severance pay. If they keep doing the 10% cut every year eventually they will hit the minimum wage limit LOL.
    How bad did IBM hurt their employees? let me give you an example. My wife was looking at joining IBM or chevron in 1989. Lets look at just the retirement benefit. If my wife work for IBM she would have the retirement benefit ended in 1999 and the lump sum would be around 50,000. Assume it is roll over to an IRA it may grow to about 150,000. My wife will get over $800,000 in lump sum from Chevron. How about the 401k plan. My guess is there is another at least $500,000 difference. How do you expect IBM employee to have any good reason not to be very angry? That is why you do not hear anyone talk about joining IBM in the SF bay area. No young people I know of work for IBM if they can find another job working for another tech companies.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Hedging My Portfolio With UVXY [View article]
    If you look at the graph of VIX you can see in the last 2 major bear market the VIX was in the above average part many months before the market took the dive. So the current VIX graph is predicting a bear market is not in the next few months.
    I have no problem if people want to hedge against a bear market. I am more of just following trend and try not to predict when the trend is going to change. If you follow my recommended method you would have been fully invested in the stock market with no hedge from 2010 to now and have an average of over 16% return compounded yearly. You can set your stop lost at any reasonable level and the standard or most common one used is 15%. 99% of the time this means you will lost 15% from the top of the bull market and also lost 12 to 15 % of the gain from the bottom of the bear market. There is 1% chance this may not work and you get whip a few %.
    If you hedge during the bull market you are giving away 2 to 4% gain each year and that compounded yearly is a big number.
    My fundamental basis for this current long bull market is due to low interest rate that is introduced by almost all central banks of the world starting in the US. Currently EU and Japan is printing money like a mad man. The US cannot raise rate due to the US dollar is already too high. My prediction is the bull market will have many more months to go.
    PS if you are young you can do a 100% invested in the stock market all the time. In the long run no matter how bad the bear market is it will recovered. (As long as you are invested in something like SPY and not something that is speculative)
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now is the time to export domestic crude, Pioneer Natural CEO says [View news story]
    I am dead set against this. Oil should never be exported and low price should benefit the average US citizen. I am already sick and tire to see us pay twice as much as people in Canada for the price of drugs that are invented in the US and manufactured in the US. This is just ridiculous.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of Diversification: Year One Of My DGI Journey, Part 2 [View article]
    "The three companies each originally made their money from a single business: (1) textiles at Berkshire; (2) department stores at Diversified; and (3) trading stamps at Blue Chip. These cornerstone businesses (carefully chosen, it should be noted, by your Chairman and Vice Chairman) have, respectively, (1) survived but earned almost nothing, (2) shriveled in size while incurring large losses, and (3) shrunk in sales volume to about 5% its size at the time of our entry. (Who says "you can't lose 'em all"?) Only by committing available funds to much better businesses were we able to overcome these origins. (It's been like overcoming a misspent youth.) Clearly, diversification has served us well."

    The word diversification used in the above paragraph is different than when Buffet said "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."

    In the first place he was talking about the 3 main business in the company were all bad and he need to "diversify" into other business that will give him growth and profit. In the second instant he is talking about investing in specific companies or business. If you have done your homework you should concentrate in the opportunities that offer you the best return.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retire Well: Keep The Vigorish (Expenses) To A Minimum [View article]
    an excellent article.
    very few people write about the real life difficulty in investing. I trade options extensively and the most difficult part is not just coming out with an idea of a trade but actually executing trade and also exit the trade because of the spread between the ask and the bid. It is almost impossible to make money in the long run using options that has 4 legs. Even a single option sometimes is difficult to exit in the last day. The spread between the ask and the bid is just way too big. I have learn to just use the stock to close out the position sometimes but that means you need more margin power to do it.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's Calling The Sheep: Buy The Dip Now, Join The Slaughter Later [View article]
    how many people have david stockman hurt in the last 5 years?
    Does david stockman has any idea how many people listen to him and stay out of the market in the last 5 years?
    For all those people like my wife who retired this year they would have earn more money in the last 5 year with their money in the stock market than they have ever earn in their life time.
    There are many people who either have nothing or very low % of their money in the stock market in the last 5 years because they listen to people like david stockman.
    The title of this article is completely wrong. First of all it assumes the market will drop very soon like within a couple months. Secondly it assume you do not sell if it does drop. A normal protection of a bear market is a stop lost at 15%. Thirdly it assumes you have not already had a big gain. The market has went up 200% in the last 5 years. So those of us who have significant of our money in the stock market already have won the war. So even if we give back 15% is just lose a small battle. But how do you know the market will not continue to go up ? Money are being printed in Japan and EU in large quantities. China is not tightening. I would continue to ride this bull market momentum until I see at least a 7% drop. I advice people to still use the standard number of 15% drop before selling out. I may do it earlier because I do not need to take much risk now and would rather enjoy life than worrying.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment