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  • Safe Withdrawal Rates At Various Investor Risk Levels For ETF Portfolios Optimized With Adaptive Allocation [View article]
    Did I miss something. Other than the drawdown QQQ beats the algorithm by a big margin. Even SPY beat the algorithm.
    You have just provided me prove that with a bucket of cash equivalent to buffer the withdrawn needed so that you do not have to sell equity when the market is low and just use qqq or spy will outperform all asset allocation with algorithm.
    (A bucket of cash equivalent that has 2 to 5 years of withdraw need depending on how high the market is and move money from equity into the cash bucket when market is high or return is high)
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China A-Shares ETFs Rally Over? [View article]
    How do you know it is at the top? It is not even close to the middle. You just gave an example of Voltari that contradict your own point. If you look at the chart when it say went from 65 cents to 2 dollars it went up 200%. If you use the momentum investing you will get in because you see a bull market. You ride it until it falls down by at least 20%. I have no knowledge of Voltari. But if you bought it at $2 even if you wait till it fall to 11 you are still ahead.
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Yield And Value Oriented Strategies Underperforming Broader Market [View article]
    Just remember from 2008 to now is a period where interest rates have been going down to historical low. So dividend yield will help to keep the price of the dividend paying stock higher. When interest rate is going up the opposite will happen.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indexing Really Is The Future Of Investing [View article]
    I have been saying for at least 20 years that for most investors the majority of their investment should not be in holding stand alone company stocks. (Nothing wrong by having a small portion of the total asset in individual stocks)
    The most import part of investment today is asset allocation. How much money do you want to put in stocks, cash (CD), bonds, gold etc. Once to make your decision then you have to look into the sub categories. For stocks what type of stock do you want to allocate your money to. If you have a significant amount of money and you have enough time and knowledge you should look at different types of etf. Some could be sector oriented like biotech or medical and some could be income or dividend growth and some could be aggressive growth.
    Picking individual stocks for long term investment for some portion of your money is fine.
    For short term trading it is very difficult to beat the market maker using individual stocks. The main reason is that there are too many people who will have inside information on individual companies that you do not have. (Insider information will not affect long term position that much)
    I have posted once before that I have better luck doing short term trading using etf and companies that I do not have extremely deep understandings. In the last few years almost all my very bad trades come from companies that I have better knowledge than most of the analyst except in short term trade it is the insider short term information that move the market. When I believe I "know" the company I get careless and ignore the possibility of the unusual and that hurts even more due to my strategies of shorting stock options.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: The Insanity Of CEF Investors - Part III [View article]
    I like your idea very much and I have a big question for you.
    I look at the level 2 quotes for the 2 CEF you talk about and they have very little size in both the ask and the bid. For IID there are a total of 12 in the bid and 3 in the ask and then you have price that is just out of any trading range. What is your experience in buying or selling CEF? How do you say even get 1000 shares if the level 2 shows only 300 shares are within reasonable price?
    Apr 23, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Yield And Value Oriented Strategies Underperforming Broader Market [View article]
    You are not going to be popular because too many people here in SA think they can beat the market by picking the right high yield stocks or dividend growth stocks.
    I have nothing against any investment strategy that is reasonable and investing in stocks that pay good dividend definitely is a good strategy. High dividend growth stock with growth in revenue and earnings are definitely a great strategy. But the dividend must reflux the true revenue and earnings of the company and not by financial engineering.
    Also many other strategies especially in high growth stocks are just as good and that is what you get if you buy cap weighted index. If you want to pick stock you might as well pick sectors. In the past 30 years any index that is related to medical outperform most other stocks including high income, high dividend or dividend growth.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Replace The 4% Retirement Rule With These 4% Dividend Stocks [View article]
    You are really comparing apple with rice (not even orange)
    The 4% rule is a method or strategy on how much you can withdraw from your retirement investment into spending money.
    Investing in stocks or what ever that pay 4% dividend is how you invest your money.
    The 2 have nothing to do with each other. They are completely different subject.
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why You Are Still Diversifying Wrong [View article]
    there is no asset allocation that is good for all market conditions. When interest rate is as low as today almost everything will go down together if interest rate goes up a lot. I do not know when interest rate will go up a lot. it may not happen in many years.
    That is why investment strategies are more appropriate than just simple asset allocation for all market conditions. (unless you are young and have more than 30 years to go before you retired. then you can stay 100% invested in the market and just buy and hold or any other asset allocation that has at least 60% stock)
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why You Are Still Diversifying Wrong [View article]
    If you look at the graph of 1970 to 1982 if you start the point of comparing the 100% SPY to your 60/30/10 strategy in the early years you will end up with no difference at the end of 1982. The reason is very simple. Stock market was at a high level from 1970 to 1973. If you start at any time after 1973 especially if you start at Jan 1975 SPY will outperform by a big amount. If my memory is correct you can get 6 to 7% interest rates with 5 year CD in those years and so keeping your money in CD would have done just as good.
    The best investment in my life time was zero coupon 30 year treasury in 1981 for 18% interest rate and that will beat all combination strategies for 30 years.
    For the next downturn (I do not know when) cash will be the best investment. stock, bond and gold all will go down.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Removes Some Hot Money From Stock Market, Encourages Short Selling [View article]
    Epoch time is a political publication that target China and only say negative things about China.
    It has no integrity at all.
    All the moves by the Chinese government from the stock market point of view is to relax control and introduce more flexibility to make the stock market and the Chinese currency more global.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwab Touts Fundamental Indexes As Alternative To The S&P 500 [View article]
    Different ways to create an index have different results and there is really nothing good or bad about them. The worst one is the dow jone industrial which is weight by the stock price and that is just a joke with no good reasons. (so BAC can go up by 100% or go down to 0 and that will not change the index as much as IBM go up or down by 10%)
    The most common one are weighted by cap or no weight at all. The difference is very clearly defined. The weighted by cap favor the large cap companies and the non weighted one favor the small cap companies.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The RRR And Why Does It Make Chinese Stocks Go Up? [View article]
    "Let's say China Merchant Bank has $100 in cash at its vaults and in electronic reserves at the central bank. If the reserve ratio is 10 percent, it can loan out $1,000. If the reserve ratio is 20 percent, it could only loan out $500."

    Are you dreaming about virtual dollars?
    If that is true I would buy all the China bank stocks I can get

    Epoch time has no credibility
    You would think such a short article someone would have prove read it before they publish it
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    I have a very different view of the market makers. They do have better information or ways to predict the future movement of specific stock prices. The information comes in many forms and the total combination give them a big advantage. All you need to do is look at how seldom does the trading desk of the big banks actually have a losing day. There are many months that some banks may have no losing days in a month. They usually only have a few losing days in a quarter.
    There are many legal ways to collect information about what a companies current quarter number is going to be. They all involved some amount of expense and that is why you are not going to get them from writers who give away their information free or even at low cost.
    What would I do if I am a market maker in say IBM in a big bank? I would first find out who handles IBM business in the other departments that have inside information on IBM like someone who handle bond offering or even merger activities. Then you have lunch with them once in a while. Never even mention the word IBM to stay legal. Just about how everyday work load and things friends talk about in lunch. I would also have pay informers in at least 10 other companies that will get me current data about IBM. For hardware business that is quite easy. All you need is some low level employee in say shipping and receiving to give you a good feel on how this quarter is as compared with previous quarter or months. (there is nothing illegal if you only use general terms like I am working overtime or standing around playing games etc hahaha)
    Yes all the work involves time and money and that is why you will never get those information free or at a low cost. That is also why it is so difficult to make money doing short term trading in single company stock especially if you use strategies that do not give you big returns.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Low Economic Growth In China, Why Is The Shanghai Composite Soaring? [View article]
    If you look at the PE ratio China stocks are very cheap as compared with any other country in the world. Also People keep talking about slowing down of the economy in China. They forget even if it slow down by another 50% it is still better than most other developed countries. In my opinion china should slow down its growth rate to no more than 3% in the next 10 years. That should be the long term stable goal and avoid any short term gains.
    Also remember in the US 70% of the GDP are just domestic consumption. For China the domestic consumption is less than 40% of the GDP. Going forward as the middle class income continue to increase that number will grow. In 10 years I would project domestic consumption will be more than 55% of GDP and export will drop.
    I am very optimistic about the next 10 years for China as far as the living standard of the country is concern and overall stability.
    Apr 17, 2015. 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwest Airlines: One Airline We Don't Love [View article]
    I just short 42 put luv for my first trade ever in luv. I last trade aal
    Apr 15, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment