Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View hahaha48's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Samsung Galaxy S4: A Gift To Apple Shareholders [View article]
    I am now beginning to think a very bad quarter in april to june is very possible now for Apple. I still want to wait until this quarters result is out to make that prediction. But a lot of real information from the current iPhone sale is pointing to below current projections.
    Mar 16 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Spend Cash On R&D, Not Special Dividends [View article]
    i am sure Apple will not need to spend more money on R and D
    Samsung has many many times Apples products in many many other areas so comparing the 2 is meaningless
    I am sure Samsung is not spending more on smartphones than apple is
    Mar 14 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Wall Street's Ignorance At Large Again [View article]
    are u nuts?
    they are happen losing all thier money in their stock options and smiling?
    Mar 12 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Wall Street's Ignorance At Large Again [View article]
    Most the number analysis that is base on the last 3 years for apple is meaningless. Only foreward looking numbers are relevent.

    The market still could be very wrong. All I am saying is that the market or the stock price is pointing to a drop in revenue year to year for apple and a significant drop in earnings year to year for apple. There is some chance for it to happen in the current quarter and an extremely good chance for it to happen in the april to june quarter. This is due to Apple so dependent on just one line of product. Everything from the information collected in the field say the iPhone sales today is below estimate. Since iPhone 5s will not be ship in the april to june quarter and other vendors all have new versions of top of the line phones start shipping in march to june that makes the quarter April to june a very difficult quarter for Apple.
    The market cap for Apple is too big for just a few people to move it. Keep in mind something like 65% of the Aple stock is hold by institution and they all have to report their holdings at the end of each quarter. If they think that may be a problem they would unload. Those who have no position may pick some up because that would not look bad for them.
    Mar 12 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple-nomics And Gross Margins 101 [View article]
    People please pay attention.
    Most of the profit oversea are not make because of regular business but are from deliberated tax avoidance moves.
    There are many ways to do this.
    The simplest way is to set up a company in just a low tax rate country like Irland. Every tech company I know of that has a lot of profit has a company in Irland for its 12.5% tax rate and no tarriff for shipping to the EU or europe as a whole. The company in Irland can buy whatever product from the US corporation at an inflated price so the US company will have very little profit.
    Even better is to set up a company with a local government that will give them say 15 years of no income tax in exchange for a building campus and say 500 jobs. There are plenty of places you can do that. Then you just sell your product from that company and report all your profit for no income tax. When the 10 to 15 years is up you move that company to another location in the same country and repeat this all over again.

    That is why you cannot just give a tax holiday. If you do the US will have very little tax to collect especially from companies that make money from selling products.
    Mar 12 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
    Apple has a lot to worry and not just margins.
    Since 65% of rev is from the iPhone and the only thing the iPhone 5 has over the last iPhone was 4G lte. iPhone 5s Is going to have a hard time competing with other top of the line phones. According to all the romus I heard it is not larger. Good luck
    Mar 8 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Recapture Old Magic By Looking To The East [View article]
    Apple now do not have the best smart phone no matter how you measure it either by hardware or by softwat. It only has a brand name.

    In Asia and China it is not just the price it is features. iPhone 5 is slower and smaller than all other top of the line smart phones and that is not going to work outside of US
    Mar 8 05:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    I do not think Andy is a bad person who only want to make money for himself. He is just not an experienced trader that was lucky for a short time.
    Mar 7 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    This is call the safe choice.
    IBM was very good in the 70's 80's and even the 90's when it come to the main frame and large systems. But at no time it was the "best" solution. The reason why very few people buy anything else is that you cannot get fire if you choose IBM. If you choose anything else and it went wrong you are sure to get fired.
    Finally in the 90"s the world realize there are other solutions that are just as good and is a lot cheaper.
    Mar 7 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has No Choice But To Make A Larger iPhone [View article]
    No matter what Apple do in other areas the iPhone is still the main rev and earning engine for Apple. If Apple has a significant drop in rev and earning in the iPhone they cannot do well even if they increase all other product business by 50%. As it stand today Apples best chance for growth in the next 3 years is their iPad business.

    Apple is going to have a very difficult time competing with its iPhone line of product in the next 12 months. If all the rumor about the iPhone 5s is true it is no match even against the current top of the line phones and definitely behind the curve of all the new phones coming out in the next 9 months. I have a htc dna from verizon and it has a quad core 1.5 and 5 inch full 1080p screen. It runs very smoothly and it has not hung or slow down since I got it 2 months ago. For all of you who claim the iPhone 5 is a great phone you can do yourself a favour and go visit a store and try out this phone. I believe AT&T has one that has a different name. It is not perfect. It has no sd card slot (stupid verizon) and some apps do not run on this phone.

    I'll get another phone in December. Most likely it will be an 8 core phone and I doubt it Apple will have one. Apple may have a 4 core one by end of 2013. Also I am looking foreward to have a real window 8 phone that can run all the window 8 app and regular window programs with at least a chip as fast as the i3. I do not think it will be available by year end. I would even wait till march of 2014 if I kn ow for sure it is coming. I want my home page on my phone have live tiles that show me some web cam of my grandsons, some stock quote and clock and weather without me having to switch apps.

    By the way for those of you who think the iMac pro is great I am buying a box with the 6 core i7 chips for about $1400 from a top vendor on ebay (they only sell through ebay with 100% rating) Top of the line cpu chip is another $350 more) Apple run their market share for the mac up to 25% in 1989 and then lost it all to less than 5 % because it is a "close system" Apple will repeat the same error in the next few years if they do not change
    Mar 7 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    I am predicting Apple wll increase its dividen in the next board meeting. My reasoning is that the board do not want to be sue in the future for not acting in a reasonable manner. Those on the board other than iCook has nothing to lose if they increase the divident. How much is another story. To just protect themself they can increase it by a small amount. My guess is the divident will be increase to just above 3%
    Mar 7 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time For Apple To Buy BlackBerry [View article]
    cannot happen
    antitrust again
    Mar 7 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    Risk management is not only to try to preserve your capital but also preserve you "life". Many people that suffers a hugh lost in capital will have healthy and family problems. You have to ask yourself do you want to risk that?

    Before the last crash that started in 2008 I was happily playing the stock market with most of my families money. I only have about 30% of my wifes 401k account in cash and everything else in stock. I also have one medium size account all in FXI with margin. The market start to go down and I just watch and did nothing. The first problem I need to face is margin calls for my FXI holding. At least I was smart enough not to put more money in and just took an 80% lost and sell all my FXI and stay cash. At the bottom in early 2009 I have lost about 40% of all the money in those accounts and about 30% of all my net assets. I did what I usually do when the market crash and that is nothing. I know in early 2009 the market probably has bottom but I did not move any of my cash into the market. I waited until October of 2010 before I become 100% in stocks (not counting my cash reserves enough for 12 months of expense assuming no other income) My thinking is as follows. I am 90% sure the market has bottom. If I am right and do nothing I am still going to be very happy with recovering all my losts. What if that 10% happen and i am wrong. Well I am going to lose even more of my money and I may have to depend on social security for half of my income when I am 70 years old and I sure do not want to do that. As of today all my accounts are at all time high with one that is about 2% below its high 2 weeks ago. Could I have make more money if I took some more chances? The answer is definitely yes. But I want to weight the reward against that small chance of me being dead wrong and lost more capital.

    One other reason why I am so humble now is that for some reason I do the wrost in trading CVX and CSCO which I consider to have more knowledge than all other stuff I trade. I really do not know that much about BAC and GLD etc and yet I do much better trading them. I also have some difficulty timing FXI compare with EWZ and I definitely know a lot more about China than Brazil. As a result I now take a lot more precaution and will not take too big a risk even in things that I believe it is a great trade and 90% sure.
    Mar 7 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    The dot com bust was the worst and more wide spread experience for people. I was doing consulting work in the middle of it because the money was good and I love software development work (which I did not do as an executive for over 10 years)

    Some people I work with who knew my background as an executive often ask me for advices in their career and insight in the hi tech business. But no one knew my expertise in stocks and options and trading. During that time in any hi tech companies people just talk about stock every day. Since I never say a word about stocks they just assume I have no interest in it. In those days since the stock prices usually go up a lot and people usually just trade stocks and not much interest in options. During that time I actually was trading options mostly on Oracle and Sun Micro. I would estimate those who make good money in the hi tech industry at that time 90% of them put a lot of their savings into stocks. When the crash came almost all of them lost everything. To make things even worst salary drops by a big % and good job is quite difficult to get after the crash. Many people that went through that peroid never put any money into stocks again. I have very little of my asset in stocks during that time and I only traded options and I escape with no lost. I did advice some of my friends to be careful but I know in my heart most likely I am wasting my time. I still remember one friend say to me any one who do not make 25% a year in stock is just plain stupid. You can throw your money in to any stock and at least make 25% a year. Why put it in a bank and collect 5%? I have not heard him talk about stocks in the last 11 years and my guess is that he lost most of his money during the dot com bust.
    Mar 7 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has The Cash To Drive Its Shares Back To $700 [View article]
    Now is too late
    whatever apple do it may move the stock some but it will not matter much anymore.

    What matters is when iPhone 5s will be shipped and what is its spec.

    65% of rev and profit is the iPhone and the next version will determine how apple do in the 6 to 9 month time frame
    Mar 6 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by hahaha48