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tradingdayz

tradingdayz
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  • What Is Happening With DryShips? [View article]
    My two cent worth. I don't own any drys but I own a Free, and they are very similar and different in ways. I don't think any traders need a lesson in markets, but a run down of the discussion is always good--these stocks trade pretty much like an option on the BDI (and BHSI for Free), Drys looks to the iron and coal markets, Free tends to look at secondary stuff, fertilizer, corn, cement. A rising world trade works to raise all ship, granted, but so can bubbles, which divert trade--for example, the iron trade got going with India then the rupee bubble burst, China lost local production and will keep losing it, Vale, Rio, BHP, will keep churning it out since they would rather sell at cost and bankrupt as many smaller players in the meantime, as possible, plus they have no choice, they made that decision to keep up cashflows, especially RIO which could a meltdown, BHP spent a fortune to become lowest cost producer down south, its in their future. The inventories, excellent point btw, will need to be reduced in China, for the big ships to take off, but the big ship market is competitive, yes the bigger ships go to insane prices, but when? The main point for me is, volatility in all sorts of markets creates, not new trade, but shifts that require ships over rail and truck and local products being knocked out by the bubbles. When will the astute Chinese cash in on low iron? The chinese government will think hard about a stimulus, and they will pull the trigger a bit later than usual, its part of their opposing concerns to reign in municipal spending and shadow banking, but money is starting to leave China, and they will try to lure it back to stem the flow--in a country where half the wealth is in a few party official's hands, it could all disappear in a wink, so they must keep their bubble going--why? Because there is no such thing as a soft landing, that is a myth--but there is a tried and tested formula to do crazy things as long as others are doing crazier--Japan EU, US in that order, so blow up the bubble and keep blowing till your neighbour collapses first, and THAT is what they will end up doing, so we will end up with both tailwinds, growing pie and shifting trade patterns, which will drive spot and especially smaller ships, to move the speculative opportunities that QE III will keep creating, till QE IV comes, a secret that no one ever understood is Belgium, No one reports on it, know one thinks 140 billion roughly of treasury buying by Belgium was a bit weird last year? Yup QE IV coming, around January, and even without it, the Japanese have adopted QE infinity and China loves to copy Japan in all respects, and it will again, once the shadow banking has been sufficiently scared off--thoughts? FREE is leveraged to the hilt, no better trade but DRYS has a great rig business and I will buy some at about 4 bucks.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Dying Fast: Mexico Senate Attacks [View article]
    Last time Ryan said there was an Ocenica uproar, i checked online and indeed there were six comments posted on one article, and three by the same person. Short away, why not? Its legal, we don't really care what false news you post, we care that you have money to burn and control a stock, that is great, so get to it. Just pray there isn't more gold announcements. Did you forget? You forgot to mention it,
    Jul 28, 2014. 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oceanica Looks Dead In The Water: Environmental Opposition [View article]
    good job Ryan, most of the posters are so witless, you are in a different league. Its incredible to think people who think 'they are talking to the army' are in the trading world to begin with, or those who think the cash is actually strapped, but perceptions rule and in a sea of one-eyed, you've proven your point, go for the stupid investors. I still think you should worry about an exit plan, since army gold is still out there, and its all for the salvager, so I am long and you are short, lets see, you can have this round, perhaps we'll lose the less intelligent, and the rest will be harder to knock out, but I am ready to see it go down, since the field needs clearing out, once that happens, hopefully soon, it can't be stopped and you know that.
    Jul 24, 2014. 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Ivanhoe Energy Have A Future? [View article]
    Well Done, you did a great job last time and this time is as good, and this is coming from a long! We find our own exhuberence somewhat faded, irrational or not, some of us maintain a position since the cow is alive, just no milk, lets hope.
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carbonate Triangle's Athabasca Investment Guide: Ivanhoe Energy Edition [View article]
    Sounds like someone, a good sir no doubt, likes to cast doubt but not provide any reasoning, as if reasoning was not required in such a decision, just DD, yet forty hours of DD show me this is a 10$ stock selling at a discount because of downdrafts in all producers in the triangle for the last two years, they sold their chinese producing assets at the worst moment and took a fling on Tamarack approval by 2013 and it might have worked except CNQ sprung a leak in a shallow SAGD, and AER halted five projects seeking 2013 approval, so a bit of bad luck. But Ecuador is a much more ambitious project which is currently under negotiations. The thinking is they found a partner, likely CNPC, and Block 20 extra-heavy needs HTL in the middle of the jungle, so the success might be coming from another source. The real hope is HTL, is the crown jewel, and once it reaches full maturity in the first commercial plant, it will sell worldwide and for offshore applications. Ivan has lined up SBM for that part, but now IVAN needs to deliver Ecuador, or run out of money by July, so its tense; either they get this 6 billion barrels in the ground megafield of extra heavy, or they go bankrupt! I'm long since I think they will pull it off. Ecuador needs the revenue, and China needs the oil. HTL just landed in the sweet spot.
    Apr 11, 2014. 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivanhoe Energy Story Is Getting Even Better [View article]
    Has Ivan cooked the HTL deal in Ecuador? Is it ready? Block 20 extra heavy ain't comin out of the ground unless someone signs something--will they just sit around and let it fester another year? Pacifica would then be fed oil from other fields? Would be a shame to pass up the opportunity to get stock for the refinery now.
    Apr 10, 2014. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Double Bind Conundrum. Ivanhoe Energy Is A Short [View article]
    Well said, gambler, just wish your name added to my confidence! Just kidding. Well it looks like a battle is coming for IVAN, and wither she goes, as is a lady's perogative, is exactly where she pleases--the question the article does not answer is why was IVAN in the 3s and 4s, just a year and half ago--did they have a lot better prospects then or better now? If they are worse now, then SBM is not being counted, the Block 20 progress noted by the ITT project going ahead, and the fact that we have 3-d already, and can ask AER to let that portion go ahead while the rest is shot--in any case the news about all of this is due any day now, so short away, if folks have the stomach for it, since one morning...
    Jan 13, 2014. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earth Prices Are Poised To Rebound And Who Stands To Benefit [View article]
    Target, I think we can be clear, energy as light warps around a mass, mass is also attracted to mass, so therefore, when light bends is it not showing the same mass to mass attraction? a mass to mass attraction is similar to how two bowling balls roll to each other on spandex, so mass 'warps' space and makes other masses "fall" into the 'gravity' well? but what makes it fall? AH ?? gravity??? No, there is a force of attraction that all masses display to each other, it is a force, but what this force is we don't know--could if be magnetic? Yes it is possible, in a way we don't yet understand. So warps look like they explain forces and forces can sometimes be explained or modeled by warps--time is the next factor in the time-space continumn, since distance is a function of location and movement, all of space is defined by movement,, some thoughts, you could say gravity is like a force from another higher dimension that acts to suck matter from this universe--that actually makes sense.
    Jan 5, 2014. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earth Prices Are Poised To Rebound And Who Stands To Benefit [View article]
    oh yes, Aussie, you are one heck of an investor, your knowledge blew my mind as did the authors' but you won, and I am buying Lynas sometime in January--one brilliant company clearly.
    Dec 20, 2013. 01:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rare Earth Prices Are Poised To Rebound And Who Stands To Benefit [View article]
    I'm not sure Einstein said gravity is fictional but that it warps the space time continumn much like a bowling ball on spandex. So perhaps gravity and space time curvature are one and the same, but that doesn't demote gravity--I suspect he didn't understand it too well so he couldn't explain it.
    Dec 20, 2013. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Turnaround With Solid Growth Prospects [View article]
    Enjoyable read and excellent work all around, to really open our eyes to what the is more 'than the eyes can see'. Now I wish someone would tackle the finances, and cash burn issues, and oh, the "ecosystem" competition with LG and HTC also using Windows 8--can they outflank Nokia and beat her with her own sword (system 8)?

    Tradingdayz
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks Set to Benefit as Healthcare Goes Digital, And 3 Biotechs Looking Strong [View article]
    Just kidding, zum is a great guy but boy does he bash XOMA! AND he owns it--check out both LXRX and XOMA and decide--but I'm 100% behind XOMA for a triple this year alone.
    Jan 26, 2011. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks Set to Benefit as Healthcare Goes Digital, And 3 Biotechs Looking Strong [View article]
    zum is a loser pumptard. LRXX huge buzz but pps action, hmmm, maybe because GLP-2 is not a big deal over GLP-1.
    Jan 26, 2011. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Perfect Storm Brewing for Markets and the Economy [View article]
    Keep in mind that the Chinese stimulus was 6 times as large at least, per capita---this 1.2 trillion is still nothing--the problem is much as the author states, guessing the amount is dangerous, especially if too much, on the other hand, little steps might just get absorbed by hording and some new devious carry trade the to-big-to fails cook up to sequester the money--the economy might need much more, as long as it makes it to the real economy--how to guarantee that? That's the big question in my mind.
    Oct 17, 2010. 03:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman: We Need Up to $10 Trillion in QE [View article]
    I am somewhat surprised at the comments by most commentators, Mr. Adamson excepted. I am certainly not an economist but I still fear the amount of ignorance surrounding economics is perhaps our worst enemy. Let's just do some math instead of hypothesizing with our emotions or political leanings: How many dollars "exist" today? Fair starting point? Well lets look at capital pools, the markets hold about 55 trillion. The black pools and libor would account for another 30 trillion, so lets say 100 trillion, if we include home equity on 60 million mortages. The economy ciruculates about 14 trillion every year. What then is 10 trillion? about 10% as a devaluation, which by the way, is far less then the greenback has already lost against a basket comparison of currencies, being about 25%. NOW lets rethink what he is saying--so what IS he saying? Some of you think 10 trillion more dollars means 10 times as many apples--but this is one-sided thinking, only supply side thinking--the money suppy expands on BOTH sides--right? So, unless apple orchards multiply it means that 10% more DOLLARS (not apples) are chasing the same number of apples, and that means INFLATION (a desirable goal to prevent stagflation and deflation--the bogeys we currently face). It means that all of a sudden more dollars, which means people can pay that mortgage with albeit inflated dollars. In Japan, this would not work, by my guess, since they are not the world's fiat currency, but the US IS just that. In Japan the banks, I would guess, would simply engender yet another carry trade, but Krugman must be betting that would NOT happen in the US if the number of dollars is sufficient to swamp the banks ( I would guess his idea would be to split the supply between banks at 0% and direct expansionary policies by government ( ie, buy up cheap assets, shares, bonds, providing stumulus and direct investment in business).If the banks are thus swamped, AND they are in competition with the government in a clearly and heavily convictioned expansionary phase--they will be frightened of losing out, THEIR chief motivator (bonuses aside--are problem that remains to be solved by either party) being greed, will drive them to lend knowing the tailwinds are clearly expansionary and inflationary--ie cheaper dollars will reduce REAL returns but returns will likley outstrip inflation in any case, especially with the housing overhang being thus inflated away, in essence they will rally to spend as a group to beat out the government and take adavtange of the windfall --and all this would kick-start a new expansion--much as China already did last year. The fly in the ointment remains the debt to GDP ratio--but hell he has a Noble and I don't so I think he might have an answer to this also--- I suspect strongly the answer might have to do with the US's preimenent status--ie, in times of stress, all nations STILL run to the dollar, so Ratio be damned for now.
    Oct 17, 2010. 02:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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28 Comments
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