Justice Kinky

Preview from Europe: Stocks Consolidate, But Financials Hit a Speed Bump

Interesting twist, but unlikely. Credit worthiness will continue to count as a litmas test for those who have "passed" the supposedly stern scrutiny of issuers of credit.


On Jun 03 08:18 AM prudentinvestor wrote:

> The link to the history of the credit card was interesting, but the
> author stopped at the present, short of predicting its future. So
> here is an attempt:
>
> As fees and interest since purchase become mandated by government,
> most people who always pay their balance in full will cut back both
> on the number of cards they carry, and their usage. These people
> will increasingly return to cash transactions or bank electronic
> payments or debit cards.
>
> The people who cannot afford to pay their bills will become the main
> users of credit cards, so, cards will increasingly be viewed as an
> indication of a poor financial condition, the very opposite of the
> image that was painstakingly cultivated by American Express.
>
> The flight of those who pay in full, and the increasing usage by
> those who cannot pay, will lead to a spiral of higher rates, higher
> defaults, and, possibly, to the demise of the industry as we now
> know it, after its 65-year lifespan.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Great comment! Fascinating isn't it? What's really exciting is watching the whole thing play out. If there was ever a time where it was possible to do the impossible, this is it!
Hope you're playing and not just watching from the sidelines. Good luck.


On Jun 02 10:41 AM Drew Horn wrote:

> You must admit, the whole thing gets to be more complex and interesting
> daily. It reminds me of the fellow on a street corner with a pea
> and walnut shells. He shows you exactly what he is doing, you understand
> it because what you see reinforces his claims, but ----- do you really
> see? Do you think you know? Do his actions move faster than your
> mind can comprehend?
>
> Banks "too big to fail" take billions one day and give them back
> the next. Insurance companies (too big to fail) sell policies but
> have little or no reserves to pay claims but continue to sell "insurance".
> Mortgage borrowers & lenders commit fraud and tip the worlds
> economy into panic, and are then encouraged to use a future unearned
> tax credit for a down payment on the next house and mortgage.
>
> The most interesting thing about this street corner game is that
> the fellow with the shells and pea is the president of the United
> States. And the people continue to watch and play his game!

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

Ted Butler:

I wonder if you realize that the singular most effective argument to keep anyone out of silver is your consistent harping on the "evidence" that silver is hopelessly manipulated.

If you want people to invest in geese that lay proverbial golden eggs, why keep bleating that there is a conspiracy afoot to keep the population of golden egg laying geese down forever?

Further, where is the evidence that your effort to stop the ongoing "manipulation" is effective? Why should any potential investor believe that you will wrest silver from the dirty hands of the "evil conspirators"?

I read an article where the author (Mike Shedlock) said:

"With respect to the claims of silver commentators that prices are being suppressed, it should be noted that these commentators have never articulated a credible explanation as to why, for more than 25 years, buyers have not entered the market to purchase silver (at the supposedly depressed prices), thereby driving up prices to a level that these commentators believe is reasonable. In this regard, no barrier to entry has been identified that would prevent individuals or firms from buying cash silver or entering into long silver futures positions."

This invisible and unidentifiable "barrier to entry" of which these people speak.....could that be you and commentators like you, who constantly cast doubt on the ability of silver to resist manipulation while paradoxically urging people to buy, buy, buy? Most not-to-bright people (arguably a large segment of the population) who read your stuff and buy your fairytale might be tempted to conclude that silver is a bad bet. The problem is that you keep thinking that the more you scream about "conspiracy" the more people will buy into this "manipulated" market. Why?

I can't answer for the merit of your overall thesis but your writing lacks coherence. Look at your ridiculous statement on this forum:
"Even if they did have legitimate off-setting positions (which no one can prove) it still doesn't give them a green light to dominate a market"

Basically, you're using the premise that people would need to furnish proof you believe is not available.
Second, you nest this within a sentence that assumes the market is being dominated, a fact you fail consistently to prove.

Anyone can wildly make up a bunch of accusations based on the crafty insight that while they can't prove anything, nobody else can either. Sort of like the war between the camps of "unbelievers" vs. "believers" which goes something like this:

Camp 1: "Prove God exists".
Camp 2: "Prove God doesn't exist".

This is idiotic.

Far as I can tell, you and your buddies are one of the most effective hindrances to any confidence in silver as a good investment.

I wish you'd let go the microphone. Unfortunately, I believe you're having too good a time.

Silver will rise. Possibly despite you.

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

Whippet:

You said:

<< It is true that a a host and its parasite both seek profit, both
> seek life, both seek propagation of the species. What is not true
> is that the value of both are equal to mankind. A tapeworm cannot
> be judged as immoral for lodging itself in my small intestine. Likewise,
> it is not immoral for me to eradicate it.
>
> Do you desire a society infested with parasitic Mouches, or one with
> myriad Reardons? It seems by your statement that you abhor all absolutes
> besides one- there are no absolutes. The problem is that a version
> of your insidious logic is found in every bill passed by Congress-
> a version called "fairness". Marxist fairness that dictates "to each
> according to his need, from each according to his ability." The tapeworms
> must be nurtured, not destroyed. Your logic aids and abets its own
> destruction.>>


I desire society as it is. I'm not given to "fairness" or "unfairness". They are both useful constructs.

Let's consider a world full of the Hank Reardons of this world. They seek to privatize their ideas. They will sell their product only to those willing to pay the "fair" price. In our thought experiment we'll allow these Hanks to proliferate. They will guard their ideas from others and trade only with other men of ideas for a price that the market will sustain. So far so good. In our imaginary world, these myriad Hanks are happy and the world is a decent, upright place in which to live. In this world, the man who invents the wheel trades "decently" with the man who figures out how to distill alcohol who trades "honorably" with the man who changes tires. Each man hoards his skill or invention and participates in the marketplace at will. When he dies, unless he gave his brilliant enterprise over to a "parasite", his enterprise dies with him.

One day, in our imaginary world Hank Reardon dies. Now, the world must wait for Hank Reardon to be reborn. No more Reardon Steel. It lies in the grave of Hank Reardon. Perhaps Galt Steel will take its place? Or Taggart Steel? No wait, Galt is busy making engines. Dagny is busy running railroads. Everybody in the Hank Reardon world is busy with his own enterprise. The people who ride on the Taggart trains that need the Galt Engine for power and Reardon Steel for rails are useless. They do not invent anything or have hot scenes with sexy heroines. They are mere minions, grateful for their ability to bask in the reflected light of genius. They are followers. They exist merely as employees of the Reardons, Galts and Taggarts, or as passengers on the trains that run on the ideas of these few. No one thinks that the Reardons, Galts or Taggarts are parasites on these people. After all, nobody "needs" to live off them. Dagny could run the railroads all by herself and Hank (having poured his steel all by himself) and Galt (having manufactured his engines all by himself) and other "respectable citizens" could be the only passengers on Dagny's trains...and she'd still turn a profit....

But Hank is dead and John and Dagny are busy. Maybe Dagny (being such a powerhouse) will take on the running of Hank's enterprise. Galt could help her do it. It's an onerous burden, no doubt, but what to do? Those railways can't run without Reardon Steel......

Hmmmmm.....where's Wesley Mouch when you need him?

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

SW:
You said:

" I seek a system which is sustainable long term and
which engages the creative impulses of man. "

With all due respect, I submit to you, sir, that there is no need to seek such a system. It already exists. We and our children all exist within a system which is sustainable long term and which always has and always will engage the creative impulses of man. This system is the world as we know it. All systems in the world are based on cheating and corruption, morality and honest dealings. All men are creative. We dichotomize; calling one man a genius and another an imitator. The "genius" creates and relies on other men's admiration and self-interest to spread the force of his creative impulse for his benefit and theirs. He forms a closed group comprised of himself and a chosen few and guards the idea from "outsiders". The "imitator" of genius is no less important than the genius, because he proliferates the idea beyond the "in" group. He is, by virtue of his lack of virtue, the enemy of oligarchs, cartels and politburos in the egg. Where the genius would hoard the idea jealously, guarding his secrets for himself and his favorites, the imitator insists upon making it plentiful. We need them both, the genius and the imitator. The thief and the moralist. The taker and the taken. It's all good.

Within this system, corrupt as it is, human genius flourishes. There are marvels everywhere. For the man who cannot enjoy the geometrical pockets of sky between skyscrapers without seeing nature "despoiled", there is only a dull world without the power of man's unique brand of dimensionality. For such a man, this is a eunuch's world. A world without the hand of man to shape its soft contours, whether by moral compulsion or by corrupt impulse. For the man who loves "nature" more than his indivisible part in it, the world is a tepid affair: a chaste communion between wood and soil. A man who wants a world untouched by corruption, a man who longs for "purity" in all things, is a mental virgin: he wants nothing to do with the heat and thrust of existence. His world is pure and lacks resilience. He prefers it that way because at heart he is no contender, no maker of things.

Who was John Galt?

John Galt was a mental virgin. He could not take the world for what it was and savor its robust juices with the enjoyment of a gourmand, a drinker of delicious things. Instead, like all meddlers and saintly reformers, he wanted that tepid purity which only the man without guts requires in order to live.

Will men create when they know that they will be cheated of their creations? Yes. Men have always created knowing full well that they stand to be cheated of their creations. It is in our nature to thrive. We are not a puny species. Will people risk capital into a system that they know is corrupt? Yes. They always have. They always will. The system was always corrupt. The system was created and sustained by men. Men are created and sustained by the system. They will invest in it.

I don't always agree with the man who finds the world and its systems flawed and unsightly. Still, I like the fact that he exists. He adds something to the world when he participates, and even when he chooses not to participate. I celebrate the man who loves himself and the world which is his creation. He is the closest thing we have to native intelligence.



On May 21 10:57 AM SW Richmond wrote:

> Justice K,
>
> "And you, sir? What do you seek? What motivates you?"
>
> I have children. I seek a system which is sustainable long term and
> which engages the creative impulses of man. Systems based on cheating
> and corruption stifle human creativity. Will men create when they
> know that they will be cheated of their creations? No. Will people
> risk capital into a system that they know is corrupt? No, unless
> they are the either corrupt ones in charge and guaranteed to profit,
> or are craven enough to not care about the corruption and merely
> go along for the ride, and at others' expense.

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

Your insight into my deplorable character is spot on sir. Congratulations on your ability to perceive the heart of darkness that resides in those with whom you share this pretty planet.

I am motivated by greed.
I am motivated by greed like John Galt.
Like Hank Reardon.
Like Wesley Mouch.

You admire Hayek, vonMises, Ayn Rand, Locke.
These heroes of yours, what did they seek? Moral certainty? Royalties? Adulation? Carnal spit and thunder?
Can you swear that they sought no material profit? Can you swear that the seeking of profit is not motivated by greed?

The man who does not seek profit is not here. He has left the marketplace. In the marketplace you will only find greedy marketeers like Hayek, vonMises, Ayn Rand, Locke, Buffet and Gates, Obama and Clinton, the man on the street and myself. If any of these people deny that they are marketeers, they are liars. Motivated by greed, they sought and seek what all men seek: the profitability of ideas. The delicious material benefit which follows from word or deed. A word or deed that issues from the creative genius that lies within us. Words and deeds, ideas and incoherencies. These things are all material. Ideas are trade. Secrets are trade. Lies are trade. Corruption and conspiracy are trade. Corruption and conspiracies make fortunes. And the whistle-blowers, the men who "expose" corruption and conspiracy, are traders as well. They too, make fortunes. Because of greed.

There is nothing that isn't traded. Conspiracy theories make money. That is why there are more conspiracy theorists at any time than actual "conspiracies". Whistle-blowers who "expose" corruption are no less earning a living off corruption than men who engage in corruption for gain.

Like me, your heroes were capitalists. Like all men. They greedily capitalized on their own insights.
And some of them, like Rand, were incapable of analysis or understanding.
Rand saw an intrinsic difference between the John Galts and the Wesley Mouches of the world. A difference which does not exist, except in moral confusion.

It is no less corrupt or moral to profit by using other men (Mouch) then it is to profit by using yourself (Reardon). This is not a mere relativistic construct. It is truth.

In Rand's futile epistles, you see the conundrum explained:
John Galt used his ideas to control the utilization of other men's money. He "converted" men like Francisco from being "used" by the Mouches of the world, to being "used" by himself in order to make his escape from that world. How then was he different than Wesley Mouch?

Your remark is morally naive. Would you feel appeased if men cheat themselves of profit because it comes to them by way of insights into the massive wheel of corruption?

I seek profit. I invent. I design. I contrive. Above all, I desire. Therefore, I trade.

And you, sir? What do you seek? What motivates you?

The man of morals who speaks of his morality in high-sounding phrases is after something. You can bet on it.

Some men profit by the machinery of "virtue". Others profit by the machinery of "vice". They all seek profit because they desire. Desire is equivalent to greed. We use the word "greed" to wean men of their honest and profiteering desire. To shame them into quiet corners.

I am not one who has bought into that idea.

Your remark infuriated me.


On May 20 10:12 AM SW Richmond wrote:

> Justice K,
>
> "Corruption (aka manipulation) is predictable. It's a sure bet. If
> you know what's going on behind the scenes, you join in on the side
> that's doing the "manipulating". You benefit from your knowledge.
> Quietly. You don't spread the word."
>
> Not everyone is motivated purely by greed, but thanks for letting
> us know about yourself.

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

Great article. Thank you.

I can't offer any proof that gold is being manipulated. That's because if I have proof that gold is being manipulated and I know how it's being done, I'll use that knowledge for my own benefit. In fact, I'd be the last one to share the insight.

Reason tells me that if Butler and others of his ilk knew that gold/silver was being manipulated and had actually figured out how it was being done, they'd keep quiet about it and profit from their "insights" with an eye to becoming as rich as kings.

For example, in a recent diatribe, Butler illogically posits:

"The amount of silver remaining in existing inventories and available for investment purchase is limited and not about to change. The number of investors who will come to learn of the remarkable facts concerning the silver story, however, must change and their buying will tilt the equation against the manipulators. As more people become educated to the real silver story, they will buy. Phony stories about surpluses won't prevent that."

Note that while Butler usually attempts to defend his statements that the amount of silver is limited, he has no reason to claim that the number of investors "must change" when they "become educated to the real silver story". It does not logically follow that a change in the number of investors "must" occur unless these potential investors "must" absorb Butler's form of "education" i.e. buy his religion...er...thesis wholesale. What are the chances of that? The whole statement rests on the assumption that Butler et al. will be able to "educate" hoards of willing investors.

Since most of the newsletter-toting scions who scream from the rooftops that gold/silver is being manipulated merely continue to scream from the rooftops that gold/silver is manipulated, you can pretty much bet your camel that gold/silver is

(a) not being manipulated, but you certainly are if you pay for any services offered by the likes of Butler et al.

or

(b) gold/silver IS being manipulated, but these guys have only a vague suspicion of it and no idea how it's being done, since they need to sell their "insights" for a living.

Corruption (aka manipulation) is predictable. It's a sure bet. If you know what's going on behind the scenes, you join in on the side that's doing the "manipulating". You benefit from your knowledge. Quietly. You don't spread the word.

If Butler et al. knew the score, they'd play on the side where the "manipulators" play.

Alas for the absolute dearth of any provable evidence of limitless corruption. If only it were that easy!

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

"Back" to India? Is that where you came from originally? How nice that you feel no loyalty towards this country. So you came here because you thought you could use this great nation to make a buck and now that times ahead look tough, you're off back "home"?

How many "immigrants" like you are still here? Why are they here?Why did they get in in the first place?

Good riddance!

When you're back in Mumbai, rejoice in the fact that you can now walk on roads built by starving women and children, drink tea harvested by child laborers, shop at malls built by the hands of suffering.

No doubt, you owe America your "high-tech" proclivities, but remember this:
You're returning to India as uneducated, immoral and disloyal as you were when you got here.




On May 06 02:28 PM perf_guru wrote:

> I'm in high-tech, have been in the US for 20+ years, and am heading
> back to India for better growth and stability. In the US, we have
> spent 6% more than what we produced for the last five years and so
> have built an overcapacity of ~30%. Even assuming 2% real growth
> rates, going forward, it will take over a decade for the overcapacity
> to be productively utilized. So, resources are better channeled to
> use the machinery we have built here and redirecting that to customers
> / users world-wide. The world as a whole is feeling the pain from
> this great recession but countries with higher reserves / cushion
> will grow out of the pain faster.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

I was reluctant to post here because writers like this feed on sensationalism. Numerous comments, whether negative or positive, feed their aggrandized attitudes.

However, I decided to say this:

Big Jake, you do your readers a disservice. Use your typing finger for something worthwhile, like poking yourself in the eye.

Most of the comments/ratings here reveal a level of hysteria that is disturbing. There is no reason for such incredible pessimism (unless you find it exciting, that is, and want to revel in morbid fantasies). When writers like this spew their melodramatic garbage in the form of cheap thrillers and lurid ghost stories, does anyone pause to think that the country is relatively young, vibrant and still in the experimental stages?

Why would any of these scenarios be even a vague possibility? There are plenty of smart people in the nation who can and will rebuild what needs to be rebuilt (if anything ends up broken) and tweak problem areas that develop in the future.

Even if a worst-case scenario develops, we are strong, valuable people who love this country. Do you think we'll let it fall?

Don't fear-monger yourselves out of a good investment smorgasbord because you're too busy seeking thrills at the end of a hypodermic.

There's no nutrition in that.

The Week That Was: Market and Economic Activity, April 27 - May 1, 2009

Aaaaaawwwww....Ubi Transcendent....please don't make Cetin Hakimoglu shut up! He makes me laugh. Laughs are hard to come by on this gloom and doom forum. Cetin has willpower (even if he is recursive!). Talk about unquenchable! The dude has a comment for everything and the buoyancy of a Viterbi algorithm.

At least he doesn't hide behind an eroticized psychopathic fictional character, give himself airs (like he probably KNOWS being the third-smartest person in the world is tantamount to being plain dumb given who the first-smartest and second-smartest people in the world are) and doesn't refer to himself insistently with a royal (or is that de rigueur for split-personality types?) "we" like Mr. Tyler Durden!

"You don't ask questions. You don't ask questions. No excuses. No lies.You have to trust Tyler."

Give Cetin some points for unpretentious lunacy, sir!

And indomitable buoyancy.

I'm big and fat (solid wall of muscle) and I will protect Mr. Cetin (gently) from any and all detractors.

PS. I'm also a Tai Chi Master and famed with the boomerang, sir.

Is Biden Associated with a Hedge Fund Scandal?

For the sake of the archangels and their small furry pets, Tyler Durden, explain to me why you wrote this. Is it relevant? Interesting?

You endlessly point the finger at "Corruption" with its ubiquitous capital "C" but that word and state has been around a long time. Kind of like "Conspiracy". There's nothing new in pointing out that political figures and/or their minions and relatives are corrupt. They have to be. They opted for public office instead of filthy lucre. So they're corrupt? That's news? How else do you think they make up the difference in raw cash? As servitors of the hand that rocks the capital, they're often at the mercy of a short-lived spiel in office to make what they can when they can.

I've read a few of your articles and I think you're interesting, but baby, baby, do you have one big-a$$ chip on your shoulder.

Listen Tyler, if we had real levels of corruption here that were visible to the naked analytic eye, we'd all be rich as monkeys in spades. That's because corruption is predictable. If we could accurately plot the moves of corrupt government, we'd never put a foot wrong. If there was really a "conspiracy" that we could unveil, we wouldn't talk about it, we'd get rich off of our insights. It's the moral fellows you have to watch out for. They're the wild card that causes all the chaos in a pretty neat algorithm.

Now tell me, do your insights make you richer every day or do you languish in the state of finger-pointing just for the sake of finger-pointing?

I don't care for Obama. But then I don't care for Clinton, Biden, George 1 and 2, Cheney or Reagan. All I care about is using the predictable machinery of greedy men for gain, so if your dirt-digging helps you feather your nest or mine... cool!

Don't you want to be fantastically rich?

Okay. Maybe not (sigh). Maybe you're so fantastically rich that you siphon yachts out of a trust fund and luxuriate in bouts of dyspepsia and maudlin existentialism (double sigh). But corruption lives and waves its rotten flag at every level of society. That's what makes society predictable. So predict something based on your insights and show me the way to the money.

Man, if you can do that, I swear I'll be your slave forever. (Not that you'd want me: I'm lazy and sloppy).

Enough with the corruption.

Geez, one would think you don't like raw capitalism....

You have this one choice:

Use corruption or let corruption use you.

Is There a REIT Reverse Inquiry Conspiracy?

LOL. Quite succinct! Good for you!

I do not like this article. I don't trust the skinny premise on which it rests.

As to other comments: The empty spaces are temporary as wealth changes hands. This will pass. In the meantime, this sort of hyperbole will cause missteps for the gullible.

For what it's worth, ignore this kind of writing. It presumes too much.


On Apr 27 02:43 PM raytayzmd wrote:

> ...gosh, a mile long article with enough paranoia to flood an insane
> asylum and a bunch of pessimistic, disheartened responses...excuse
> me a minute -- I gotta go buy some more REIT's.

Rating Obama's First 100 Days

First off, rating Obama is pointless. The cosmetic job the media is doing 24/7 is going to keep the man afloat no matter what he does. I do believe he could very well sell the nation out from under us and we'd cheer him on...oh wait...he's doing just that and we're doing just that...never underestimate the massive intellectual power of we the people.

Even so, I'd give this administration a big "A" for

(a) Moving wealth out of the country fast

(b) Making big banks "special" (openly) as we always knew they were

(c) Bringing gold out from under everyone's underwear and getting them to sell it at "gold parties" for far less than value. (hey, who needs some FDR type Executive Order malaise when people are willing to gold party their gold into oblivion voluntarily)

(d) Panic and scare-mongering by drying up credit (always a good way to get people to sell their stuff for soon-to-be-debased dollars just to get by so that bargains can be picked up for pennies on the dollar.

Here, the trick is to first get people to sell stuff for low prices in debased currency, then get them to use the debased currency as it debases further to buy "new" stuff (like essentials) for inflated prices. Whew! Talk about transfer of wealth!

(e) Getting rid of the pesky industry that keeps plaguing this nation and preventing it from becoming about service and smiles.

(f) Having at least half of all Americans wear silly grins along with their disease-prevention gear and last-season's designer labels (now there's a feat!) while they rejoice that the "downturn" is showing green shoots and silver linings ad nauseam.

Not that any of it matters.

Instead, think about all that unemployment.

Best thing to do, if you can bring yourself to believe that Obama deserves an "A" for the above is buy into all things war-related. Gold is also good, You might also resort to fleecing your neighbors if you can stomach "partying" with idiots three days a week and feeling bad about yourself forever after.

Depends on your level of hardheaded cynicism.

The Swine Flu Swoon: What the Markets Didn't Need

Frankie Cooper: This isn't about the president. Any president would've said the same thing. It's all about Swine Flu and money and how money can serve Swine Flu and how Swine Flu can serve money.

How Does $9000 Gold Sound?

You know, I might be crazy but you certainly have a point there...


On Apr 27 07:10 AM DONE_SONZ wrote:

> 9K can be the new 900 some day.It doesnt really sound that crazy.