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  • SunEdison prices second lien loans, strikes debt exchange transactions; shares -13.8% (updated)  [View news story]
    On the second lien loans, there are 19.8 million shares associated with $500 million (25.25/share) and 8.9 million shares associated with $225 million (25.28/share). Using 317.6 million shares outstanding; those warrants associated with the second lien term loans represent a possible increase of 9% in the share count.

    The warrants associated with the second lien are not dilutive at the current share price. I don't expect any of these warrants will be exercised anytime soon, especially since the holders can collect LIBOR+10% on their money.
    Jan 7, 2016. 11:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    IMO, if there is any interest by the majors it would be more toward cherry-picking assets at distressed prices. No point in acquiring the whole thing with the all the associated debt.
    Jan 6, 2016. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    The bonds tell you better than the stock price that survival is in question. Those big discounts on the bonds tell you that bondholders don't expect to get paid.
    Jan 6, 2016. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing CVR Partners LP: What Caused The 25% Price Decline?  [View article]
    These types of lawsuits (http://bit.ly/1Z1l1Gn) happen almost everytime there is a merger or buyout. And there is usually at least a series of "investigations" by various law firms that specialized in the business.

    The shareholders can vote it down if the offer is not good enough.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: The Year Stocks Went Nowhere  [View article]
    In the past, such an incident would have put a "fear" premium on. Now there is no fear. I agree that they aren't looking for an active war. They are doing very well with proxies. Maybe the launch was more of a message for KSA.
    Dec 30, 2015. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: The Year Stocks Went Nowhere  [View article]
    The only surprise today is that oil is down despite the Iranian missile incident: http://tinyurl.com/h5z....
    Dec 30, 2015. 07:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Slides On Weak Commodities After Disrespecting Shareholders  [View article]
    IMO, it was not an attempt to diversify. It was a straight-up bailout of Moffett (who held a lot of shares in those companies and served as Chairman--big conflict of interest) and his buddies. He couldn't find more financing so he used FCX and did not allow a shareholder vote.

    Without the oil & gas baggage, I think FCX would be attractive. As it stands now, I have to wonder if they can survive.
    Dec 30, 2015. 07:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Slides On Weak Commodities After Disrespecting Shareholders  [View article]
    Its down because of the amount of money being paid to Moffett. The man who broke the company is being paid an amount equal to 30% of the quarterly dividend. And then he gets another $1.5/year as a retainer besides his regular retirement benefit which is substantial. He made millions more on FCX's buyout (a bail out really) of the McMoran oil & gas interests.
    Dec 29, 2015. 07:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources Axes Its Distribution 75%  [View article]
    Apparently the link to Moody's report doesn't work. Summary is the rating is B3 with a negative outlook; although its not on credit watch.

    Moody's indicates that they will probably downgrade the debt if the retained cash flow to debt ratio drops below 5%.  As of September 30, the ratio was at 6.5%.

    As one would expect, the cut in the distribution is favorable for the debt; however the bonds are still quite risky as reflected in the price.
    Dec 24, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources Axes Its Distribution 75%  [View article]
    Yield is still over 50% on the bonds. Here is a link to Moody's report: http://bit.ly/1VcRitJkQo6vaSPB3iWjNM=

    So bonds will keep paying for now and have almost a 4X upside IF VNR survives.
    Dec 24, 2015. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Parade Of Pontificating Pundits  [View article]
    Nice alliteration.
    Dec 20, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Are Utility Dividends Any Safer?  [View article]
    Lets see TEP came close to Chapter 11 (http://bloom.bg/1IdSc7p), and had a $70 million default. And Washington Public Power defaulted on over $2 billion in bonds; with bond holders receiving about $0.40 on the dollar (http://bit.ly/1ll167j).
    Dec 18, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Will It Survive?  [View article]
    If they hadn't bought McMoRan Exploration to bail out Jim Bob Moffett and his buddies; we wouldn't be having this discussion imo. Doing that without a shareholder vote was criminal. I would suggest spinning off the garbage that was McMoRan, but I doubt that agreements in place with lenders would allow that to happen.
    Dec 9, 2015. 01:57 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Painfully Wrong About Keurig Green Mountain  [View article]
    Its an all cash deal at $92/share. It looks like it should close in April, but it could take longer. If you hold you receive the $92 in cash, when and if the deal closes. The arbitrage isn't too high, but its there at about 2.67% based on 89.6 as the current price as I checked it. So that is what you could make by holding, but the risk (albeit low) is that something happens and the deal doesn't close.
    Dec 9, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Will Never Buy An MLP Again  [View article]
    There are all kinds of MLPs. BX is an MLP for example.
    Dec 7, 2015. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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