Peruvian shares bounce hard as Keiko Fujimori catches up to and has now solidly passed Ollanta Humala in polls for the June 5 election. This weekend's survey gives Fujimori a 6 point lead over the Chavez ally. The Peru ETF, EPU, is up nearly 15% in the past 3 weeks. [View news story]
Solidly passed??? Of three recent polls, the Datum poll (elcomercio.pe/politica...) is obviously being quoted here. It shows Fujimori ahead by over 5%, but still with less than 50% of the vote. One poll, the IMA, shows Humala in the lead and the Ipsos poll shows a less than 2% advantage for Fujimori. None of the polls show either candidate with 50% of the vote.
Anyway, the televised debate is yet to come. This is still a wide-open race and Humala has spent the most money so far and continues to spend more money than Fujimori and is also being very ably aided by the same Brazilians who helped Lula in his campaign for president in Brazil. Humala continues to deny his campaign is being financed by Hugo Chavez (the defense is "there is no definitive proof")--but then where does he come up with so much as a poor ex-millitary guy?
Having said that, Humala's party, Gana Peru ("Peru Wins" in English), won't have a majority in Congress. The Congressional elections are over and the seats are established. It will take Humala some time to break down the economy, perhaps more than a year. So if he is elected, I expect a drop in the local markets, but then a slight comeback (like a relief rally) as he won't able to do everything in his formal plan of government (which has already been published here: www.ollantapresidente.... in Spanish). I expect him to follw the Chavez model of government and that means taking out the AFPs, (and changing the constitution, running over the judiciary, calling for new Congressional elections, controlling the media, nationalizing various industries, etc.), which will drive the BVL down eventually. Infusions of AFP money help to underpin the BVL will stop. The AFP money currently generated has to go somewhere and public investment options in Peru are somewhat limited.
Fujimori is definitely the lesser of the two evils, but she also comes with baggage. Even if Fujimori wins, I expect some significant violence to take place in protest (outside of Lima that is). Not the best of times in Peru right now. And still a very unsettled situation if you are a long-term investor.
Saying that cutting £1B here or there isn't nearly enough, Jim Rogers expects the U.K. to need a bailout at some point. Rogers believes any government actually slashing enough spending to put a dent in the debt would quickly get voted out of office. [View news story]
And who is going to bail out the UK, China? The UK is simply too large for a bail out.
Add to those reasons that the CME has repeatedly tightened margin requirements for Silver and has scheduled further tightening through Monday. The tightening may not be the root cause of the steep decline, but it certainly provided the trigger.
Alcoa (AA +4% to $18) continues to climb amid rumors that Rio Tinto (RIO -1.6%) is preparing a $25.50/share bid for the aluminum giant. Investors are loading up May and June calls at an $18 strike price. It's not the first time traders have talked about Rio buying Alcoa, but existing ownership of Alcan might raise antitrust issues. [View news story]
AA, imo, is poorly managed, but not sure how RTP justifies that offer (appoximately a 42% premium) to their shareholders. They would be counting on some huge improvements in cost or Al prices. Smells like the rumor about X being taken out last August (in which nothing happened).
Dubbed "A Day of Martyrs," tens of thousands take to the streets in protests across Syria. For the first time, ethnic Kurds, which make up 15% of Syria's population, join the demonstrations. Various reports show several people killed in Duma after security forces open fire. [View news story]
Maybe a Kurdistan results out of all this turmoil. More problems ahead in the region.
Dubbed "A Day of Martyrs," tens of thousands take to the streets in protests across Syria. For the first time, ethnic Kurds, which make up 15% of Syria's population, join the demonstrations. Various reports show several people killed in Duma after security forces open fire. [View news story]
Well, Bashad Assad has said he is going down with the ship if it comes to that. The Alewites completely control the millitary and I'm surprised that things have gotten so far out of hand. Perhaps Bashad lacks the ruthlessness of his father that allowed him to destroy the Moslem Brotherhood in Syria--Basically, he killed them all.
Syria produces about 400,000 bbl of oil per day, but I believe there are some oil transportaton pipelines from Iraq that cross into Syria as well that allow shipment to Europe. So when does the U.N. jump in?
What David Sokol did was "front-running, and everybody knows that it is wrong," Alice Schroder writes. "When Sokol pitched the deal to Buffett (BRK.A), he was holding stock in Lubrizol (LZ) that had the equivalent of free lottery tickets attached... Instead of condemning Sokol, Buffett gave him a pat on the back on the way out... It’s too bad that Buffett missed an opportunity to show moral courage." [View news story]
So here is a guy who loaded up on the stock (close to 100k shares for his own account) of a company that he was negotiating to purchase and that is okay with the SEC.
If this isn't trading on inside information, than what is?
Peruvian shares stabilize after being hammered the previous 2 sessions on news Hugo Chavez pal Ollanta Humala has taken the lead in Presidential polling. Humala has campaigned on redoing trade agreements and taxing high mining profits. EPU +0.2%. SCCO +0.1%. FCX +0.3%. [View news story]
Well, even the PPK candidate is going for higher mining taxes--that is going to happen. Ollanta Humala is lying about the rest of his plans--an article in El Comercio pointed out similarities between Humala and Hugo Chavez. That article was printed on Sunday and was not digested in the latest poll. Anyway, the election on April 10th is still too close to call. There are five candidates bunched at the top, any two of which could emerge for the run-off. The certainty is that there will be a run-off with no one taking over 50% of the total vote.
I think Humala can do for Peru what Chavez did for Venezuela, create high inflation, decrease economic activity, oversee declining infrastructure and suppress freedom of expression. Everybody wants those things...
"There is no longer any possibility of mutual understanding with this regime and he has no choice but to surrender authority to the people," says the head of Yemen's opposition after today's massacre in which 42 were shot dead and hundreds wounded by security forces. [View news story]
So what does the U.N. do about Yemen now? Millitary intervention here too or not enough oil to make it worthwhile?
Breaking: The U.N. Security Council, by a vote of 10-0 with 5 abstentions, authorizes a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in Libya. Military strikes are expected within hours. April crude pops another $1 to $102.77/barrel. [View news story]
Russia could have vetoed this. They are looking for higher oil prices, nothing more.
Oil moves to new highs for the day following news the U.S. will ask the UNSC to approve a resolution authorizing a wide range of military options against Libya. The Obama administration now believes a no-fly zone by itself will be insufficient to save Benghazi from Gaddafi's forces. [View news story]
This is a recipe for disaster. More millitary options--just say no.
Events in the Middle East and Japan could push oil to $200, warns Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin. Japan will be importing significantly more oil, and Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Bahrain may provoke a response from Iran. "Much worse headlines can easily be imagined," says an RBS analyst. [View news story]
I hope he is wrong about a possible Iranian response. I know they would love to create a Shia crescent around the "Persian" gulf, but the timing doesn't seem right.
One can always imagine worse headlines, its not difficult given the current state of global affairs and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The bounce in oil is given renewed momentum by the escalation in violence in Bahrain. The opposition Wefaq party, worried about mass casualties, calls off protests, one of its members saying Bahrain is headed towards disaster. "The security forces are killing the people, we call upon UN to help us." [View news story]
Wefaq needs to learn from the Libya situation, no help will be coming to them.
Angela Merkel puts a three-month moratorium on Germany's extension plan for 17 nuclear plants, to enable an extensive safety review with "nothing taboo." [View news story]
After Joe Lieberman's comments yesterday, I expect something similar from the U.S.
Peruvian shares bounce hard as Keiko Fujimori catches up to and has now solidly passed Ollanta Humala in polls for the June 5 election. This weekend's survey gives Fujimori a 6 point lead over the Chavez ally. The Peru ETF, EPU, is up nearly 15% in the past 3 weeks. [View news story]
Anyway, the televised debate is yet to come. This is still a wide-open race and Humala has spent the most money so far and continues to spend more money than Fujimori and is also being very ably aided by the same Brazilians who helped Lula in his campaign for president in Brazil. Humala continues to deny his campaign is being financed by Hugo Chavez (the defense is "there is no definitive proof")--but then where does he come up with so much as a poor ex-millitary guy?
Having said that, Humala's party, Gana Peru ("Peru Wins" in English), won't have a majority in Congress. The Congressional elections are over and the seats are established. It will take Humala some time to break down the economy, perhaps more than a year. So if he is elected, I expect a drop in the local markets, but then a slight comeback (like a relief rally) as he won't able to do everything in his formal plan of government (which has already been published here: www.ollantapresidente.... in Spanish). I expect him to follw the Chavez model of government and that means taking out the AFPs, (and changing the constitution, running over the judiciary, calling for new Congressional elections, controlling the media, nationalizing various industries, etc.), which will drive the BVL down eventually. Infusions of AFP money help to underpin the BVL will stop. The AFP money currently generated has to go somewhere and public investment options in Peru are somewhat limited.
Fujimori is definitely the lesser of the two evils, but she also comes with baggage. Even if Fujimori wins, I expect some significant violence to take place in protest (outside of Lima that is). Not the best of times in Peru right now. And still a very unsettled situation if you are a long-term investor.
Saying that cutting £1B here or there isn't nearly enough, Jim Rogers expects the U.K. to need a bailout at some point. Rogers believes any government actually slashing enough spending to put a dent in the debt would quickly get voted out of office. [View news story]
What's Causing Silver's Slide? [View article]
Alcoa (AA +4% to $18) continues to climb amid rumors that Rio Tinto (RIO -1.6%) is preparing a $25.50/share bid for the aluminum giant. Investors are loading up May and June calls at an $18 strike price. It's not the first time traders have talked about Rio buying Alcoa, but existing ownership of Alcan might raise antitrust issues. [View news story]
Dubbed "A Day of Martyrs," tens of thousands take to the streets in protests across Syria. For the first time, ethnic Kurds, which make up 15% of Syria's population, join the demonstrations. Various reports show several people killed in Duma after security forces open fire. [View news story]
Dubbed "A Day of Martyrs," tens of thousands take to the streets in protests across Syria. For the first time, ethnic Kurds, which make up 15% of Syria's population, join the demonstrations. Various reports show several people killed in Duma after security forces open fire. [View news story]
Syria produces about 400,000 bbl of oil per day, but I believe there are some oil transportaton pipelines from Iraq that cross into Syria as well that allow shipment to Europe. So when does the U.N. jump in?
What David Sokol did was "front-running, and everybody knows that it is wrong," Alice Schroder writes. "When Sokol pitched the deal to Buffett (BRK.A), he was holding stock in Lubrizol (LZ) that had the equivalent of free lottery tickets attached... Instead of condemning Sokol, Buffett gave him a pat on the back on the way out... It’s too bad that Buffett missed an opportunity to show moral courage." [View news story]
If this isn't trading on inside information, than what is?
Peruvian shares stabilize after being hammered the previous 2 sessions on news Hugo Chavez pal Ollanta Humala has taken the lead in Presidential polling. Humala has campaigned on redoing trade agreements and taxing high mining profits. EPU +0.2%. SCCO +0.1%. FCX +0.3%. [View news story]
I think Humala can do for Peru what Chavez did for Venezuela, create high inflation, decrease economic activity, oversee declining infrastructure and suppress freedom of expression. Everybody wants those things...
"There is no longer any possibility of mutual understanding with this regime and he has no choice but to surrender authority to the people," says the head of Yemen's opposition after today's massacre in which 42 were shot dead and hundreds wounded by security forces. [View news story]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Breaking: The U.N. Security Council, by a vote of 10-0 with 5 abstentions, authorizes a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in Libya. Military strikes are expected within hours. April crude pops another $1 to $102.77/barrel. [View news story]
Oil moves to new highs for the day following news the U.S. will ask the UNSC to approve a resolution authorizing a wide range of military options against Libya. The Obama administration now believes a no-fly zone by itself will be insufficient to save Benghazi from Gaddafi's forces. [View news story]
Events in the Middle East and Japan could push oil to $200, warns Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin. Japan will be importing significantly more oil, and Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Bahrain may provoke a response from Iran. "Much worse headlines can easily be imagined," says an RBS analyst. [View news story]
One can always imagine worse headlines, its not difficult given the current state of global affairs and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The bounce in oil is given renewed momentum by the escalation in violence in Bahrain. The opposition Wefaq party, worried about mass casualties, calls off protests, one of its members saying Bahrain is headed towards disaster. "The security forces are killing the people, we call upon UN to help us." [View news story]
Angela Merkel puts a three-month moratorium on Germany's extension plan for 17 nuclear plants, to enable an extensive safety review with "nothing taboo." [View news story]