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losbronces

losbronces
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  • Copper Makes A Move - Is Copper The Next Oil? [View article]
    The number of mines that can produce copper below $1/lb is very low now. Lower fuel cost will help, but that alone won't make $1/lb copper feasible for all but a handful of mines.
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Makes A Move - Is Copper The Next Oil? [View article]
    I have puts against FCX. Besides copper, they are exposed to high-cost oil production.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining: Looking Into The Puzzling 30% Decline [View article]
    We used to store No. 6 fuel oil (AKA Bunker C) for long periods without problems. It was to used to run a back-up power plant that saw only intermittent use. That plant would not be operated for months at a time.
    Jan 12, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Oil For Pennies On The Dollar [View article]
    Okay, then look just at the Canadian oil & gas P & E companies in 2009. There were outsized gains from March 2009 through March 2011. PWE tripled by 2011 off those lows, while BTE went from under $8 to over $60 in the same period.
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Largest Net Lease REIT Is Ripe For A Takeover [View article]
    Sometimes selling the parts actually generates more profits than trying to find someone to take the whole thing. That strategy has been fairly common especially with activist investors involved.
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne says rig prices down 10% amid "ugly" land driller outlook [View news story]
    Break even cost for tight oil is much higher than that: http://bit.ly/1AuxMBu. Berman estimates $80-$85/bbl for the Bakken, and thats the best of the shale plays (i.e., others will have higher break even). Per Berman, there will be no new financing for drilling tight oil with oil under $90.

    Sure, once you are producing the cost is low (maybe that is where your $5 comes from). But every well has an EUR associated with it. If you are going to break even; then you have to cover all of your costs with that recovered production. Some of the producers may be forced to continue to generate some cash to meet high interest debt requirements, but some will turn of the tap in an effort to eventually recover their investment.
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Eurozone Prices Fall For First Time Since 2009 [View article]
    You clearly didn't look very hard. Try Googling "sensitive urban areas in France".
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Eurozone Prices Fall For First Time Since 2009 [View article]
    Islamists control various sections of French urban areas where the police will not enter, and Shiria law is practiced within those confines. They are called "sensitive urban zones" and are actually authorized under French law.

    Its not looking the other way, these autonomous zones are something they have provided for by law. 
    Jan 7, 2015. 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Eurozone Prices Fall For First Time Since 2009 [View article]
    I expect the ECB's version of QE to be announced on January 22, the next meeting date for the ECB's directors.
    Jan 7, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Quick Observations On Crude [View article]
    Yes, around 1999-2000, at least some of the majors were using $10/bbl to evaluate new projects. And drilling was just not happening in the USA. Of course that was before the BRIC ascendancy and the associated increase in demand.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Oilfield writedowns loom as crude slump guts drilling values [View news story]
    At $50/bbl, I believe there are a lot of current reserves that will go away for companies that need to report based on the SEC rules. It will take some time to actually see those writedowns though.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Action Forces RAIT Financial Book Value To Plummet [View article]
    Sounds like a good idea. Bought $7 July puts @ 0.65. Should shake out by then.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Oilfield writedowns loom as crude slump guts drilling values [View news story]
    This is straight from the SEC regulations on reporting oil & gas reserves (link to rule here: http://1.usa.gov/QmEvWg):

    The definition states that the economic producibility of a reservoir must be based on existing economic conditions. It specifies that, in calculating economic producibility, a company must use a 12-month average price, calculated as the unweighted arithmetic average of the first-day-of-the-month price for each month within the 12-month period prior to the end of the reporting period, unless prices are defined by contractual arrangements, excluding escalations based upon future conditions.

    So the writedowns will come, but perhaps not as quickly as some would like to think. I don't think you will see $50/bbl oil reflected in SEC compliant reserve reports yet.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We want Greece! - German econ min [View news story]
    The timely payments will stop shortly imo.
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Returns For BDCs In 2014 [View article]
    That is not a charge, it is an additional margin maintenance requirement. What it means is that if you are buying BDCL on margin, you can only use 75% of the marginable value of your account. So if you have $100K, you could only buy $175K of BDCL. This is basically to avoid having frequent margin calls (forcing you to sell a portion of your stock to get back into compliance with margin requirements) just due to the volatility experienced by the stocks on the "Subject to a Higher Maintenance Requirement" list.

    If you look at the list (click on "Stocks Subject to a Higher Maintenance Requirement" on the home page), you will see that some stocks, such as MNKD, have a 100% requirement, which essential means you can't use margin at all to buy that one.
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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