jhartz

Is a Crash Impending?

Timing is everything. My puts are all expiring in less than two weeks. Even with this loss I'm taking, I still think I made the right play. Had I known, at the time I put on my position, that the Fed and the big money center banks would be propping up the market, I probably would have refrained from putting it on.

Tomorrow is a new day, and I'm still convinced that the market is bigger than those who would try to use it to bilk citizen's of their hard earned savings. If not next time, surely the time after that.

GDP: Here's a More Realistic Look

Out in the hinterlands the people are starting to make their discontent known to the politicians. No one is really listening to their protests yet.

Sadly, it will probably take some form of armed action to let the government finally understand the underlying consequences for their traitorous betrayal of American citizens.

Will we have to see a spate of violent criminal acts against our constituted authorities before they get an understanding of how unhappy the American people are to see their country being economically crippled?

How many political officials will have to be shot at before "REAL CHANGE" starts to take place? I never thought I'd hear these types of things being advocated. I'm hearing calls for action every day now.

I urge our political leaders to retreat from this abyss they're heading this country towards. We've lost most of our faith in the political process already. You take away all our hope and we'll have no choice but to engage you in a battle to regain control of the processes that once made ours the greatest country ever.

Fitch Report: Financial Companies Hold 99.7% of All Derivative Contracts

There will come a point where the ability to mortgage America's future will be taken out of the hands of the banksters and their confederates in government "service". When that happy day finally comes, a lot of criminals will be made to answer for the wholesale theft that is now being perpetrated on the American taxpayer.

You can only throw money down a rat hole for so long before intelligent people will put a stop to it. The problem I'm having is understanding why it hasn't been stopped already.

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

Don't be worried about Walmart going under. I forsee a time when large fleets of Chinese sailing junks ply the waters between the Chinese mainland and San Francisco. This fleet will carry four months of inventory for every Walmart in operation. Once off loaded in the harbor, another large fleet of freight rick-shaw vehicles will set off to make these deliveries. In the end, China will have found new employment opportunites for another twelve million of their citizens, not to mention the profits generated by these continuing sales to Walmart.

If you want to work on a HARD problem, then try to figure out how American shoppers will be able to come up with the wherewithal to purchase Walmart's offerings. Probably by opening up our borders to shoppers from Mexico and Canada.

Galbraith and Buffett: Second Stimulus Is Necessary

There is no magic panacea here. No amount of borrowed stimulus is going to improve the underlying problem that we have. Actually, everyone already knows it will hurt us in the longer term.

Why is it so difficult for politicians to bite the bullet and accept the necessary pain we'll eventually have go through in order to make things better in the future?

Our economic heart is damaged and scarred by too much excess, and these people keep trying to feed us more of the "speed" that caused the original damage.

Dead Cats Are Bouncing

You'll recognize when the real turnaround comes. The spokesmen for all the various government agencies will start making statements about the economy that coincide with what you, yourself, have been observing.

Won't it seem strange to once again believe what our elected servants are telling us?

Has the Fed Failed?

The Fed will fail. Not just fail in the sense of not accomplishing what it was set up to do, but fail in the sense that it will become insolvent beyond anything we saw with AIG.

They might believe that their ability to print money protects them from any near term accountability, but they are wrong to believe that. Every day, more and more concerned citizens are taking a closer look at what is happening in this country. When enough of the citizenry become anxious about what the Fed is really doing, there will be an audit.

I Was Wrong About GM Bankruptcy

When I go to WIC to pick up my coupons for free milk, cheese, cereal, peanut butter, baby formula and eggs, I'll be expecting a free Chevy Tahoe now too.

How great is a government that takes care of their needy citizens like that? I'm just damned glad I voted for BHO. Who would have thought an eighth grade drop out, unemployed and unmarried mother of six would ever be able to afford such luxury? Don King was absolutely right..............ONLY IN AMERICA!!!!!!!!!

What's Driving Single Family Home Investors?

I remember attending several foreclosure auctions at the County courthouse last year. Speculators were bidding up prices on homes to about 80% of the previous peak.

At the time, all of them were cackling in glee, knowing that things would turn around again and they would end up with forty to fifty percent gains within the year.

Today, approximately one year after, these same types of houses are selling for fifty to fifty five percent of their peaks.

Next year, they'll be selling for still less. That is the nature of a deflationary asset collapse.

There is a price where it will be an excellent investment opportunity to buy such houses. Unfortunately, that price hasn't been reach yet.

Why the Recession Is Over

Here are some leading indicators for you. In the past month, twelve small businesses, some having been in business for more than forty years, closed their doors forever in the small city that I reside in.

For them, and for tens of thousands like them, all across this nation, this recession didn't end in June. I believe the powers that be are trying to stimulate the confidence of the people by misleading them about the true status of our economy. Instead, they are causing people to mortgage their futures in the vain hope that they'll somehow survive this economic debacle.

The money they take from their kids education funds to buy themselves another month of staying in business, believing the false promises of our elected and appointed officials, could have been better used to provide them with flour, rice, and beans as they struggle to survive the actual depression we are now in.

What we both write in this blog will be available for historians to read long into the future. If I'm wrong in my assessment, it will be a happy error. If you are wrong, how many future business failures will you have enticed to stick it out for just one more month?

America's Economic Credibility Crisis

Having long ago lost the cachet of being a creditor nation, and by now putting our sovereign currency at risk, America will soon be left with no real negotiating tool but that of being the BADDEST MUTHA@#$#ER in the world.

Those of you who try to rationalize what this administration, the banksters and Congress are doing to this country better pray real hard that our "BIG STICK" proves to be adequate to the challenge of protecting our shores from enraged foreign creditors.

Social Security, June 2009 Report: Ongoing Deterioration

Every laid off "Boomer" (or failed business owner) who opts for early Social Security benefits, represents a new mouth to feed and one less contributor to the scheme. what we'll soon be seeing is a steeper contraction than thought contribution index, and a larger than expected benefit payout. This is the worst possible scenario, although I'm relatively certain that Obama will give a speech bragging that his administration has allowed more than a million people to enter the golden years of retirement more quickly than any other preceding administration.

Property Tax Appeals Reflect Dire Economic Situations

California will be forced to make draconian cuts in state spending. The state is being run in ways that defy either rhyme or reason.

People with businesses, jobs, or personal wealth are finally so fed up with the 'something for nothing' crowd that controls state and local governments in California.

We will no longer support, with our tax dollars, a system that is rigged against those that earn more than they spend. Our public school systems and our hospitals are beyond being strained because of having to provide services to those who don't pay for them.

California is bankrupt, and they are going to have to start acting like it.

Once they cut spending to live within their means, they'll still have to address their system of preferments and entitlements that seem only to provide undeserved services to illegals and other, non productive parasites, whose sole intent seems to be sucking the lifeblood out of our once great state.

California is the precursor to what is taking place in our whole country.

This Recession Isn't Over: Now for the Hard Part

To answer your question: The data is being rigged. It is hoped that consumer confidence will return and that people will get right back on that debt horse and ride it closer to the chasm of national bankruptcy. Hope isn't going to change reality though. We need to get down to addressing our real problems by first admitting what they are. Our government has, to date, refused to do that.


On Jul 06 02:52 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> yes, the recession will never end and everybody on here seems to
> agree with that. Then why does the data suggest the recession likely
> ended in June?

This Recession Isn't Over: Now for the Hard Part

Predictions that are based on past events will prove less valid than usual, IMO, because we are all making assumptions based on interpretation of economic data that is being rigged to present the most optimistic readings.

Those people who look closely at their own small area of expertise keep finding clear differences between what the government and the media are reporting and what they, themselves, are personally observing.

I've visited some local malls and spoken with small retail business owners. I've looked at actual real estate sales taking place in the area where I'm most knowledgeable. The trends are all down, and many potential sales are not being made because the seller would take away nothing other than the capacity to pay off all or nearly all of his mortgage.

This recession isn't going to improve until people have reliable data to make their decisions. As long as the powers that be try to conceal important economic facts from investors, and manipulate all the markets in hopes of preventing collapse, we will be strangling all hopes of eventual recovery. We need transparency, and more importantly, lack of tampering, inside our capitalist markets.