christophe

What Can Stop This Market Rally?

We keep hearing the equity markets will have to adjust the to "real" economy. Probably true. Using the same logic, one could say that to heal this economy, a good dose of inflation, over multiple years, is probably the best (safest? most likely?) way to "reboot".

China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s?

Vitaliy, your previous article about market types (bull-range-bear) was excellent. This one seems obviously mis-informed... from a certain perspective the comments it is generating are interesting.

We're Trapped in a Market Going Nowhere Fast

Thank you for this Vitaliy. Very interesting and relatively easy read.

1 Month, 24 Bank Failures: Random Event or Wilting Economy?

Thanks Carneades! Your article had the merit to spark some good reactions/comments and good data for all see things in balanced perspective.

Think Taxes Will Rise? Part I: Consider These Municipal ETFs

Thanks for this. I have some munis my self. Here are some the one's I track.

Volume is important for me when selecting a muni.

I was wondering if you could explain why EIM had huge dip on June 22 and then came right back up?

This was pretty traumatic and "forced" me out of that position... luckily I had purchase EIM in March so no loss.


PML 9.92 -0.05 (-0.50%) 574.88M
EIM 11.84 +0.03 (0.25%) 773.50M
BYM 13.24 +0.03 (0.23%) 342.87M
PZA 22.39 +0.03 (0.13%) 80.46M
HYD 27.73 -0.01 (-0.04%) 0.00
NAD 12.74 +0.07 (0.55%) 504.18M
NPX 11.58 +0.04 (0.35%) 437.11M
NVG 13.23 -0.05 (-0.38%) 395.64M
MHD 13.20 +0.15 (1.15%) 180.61M
MQT 10.80 +0.02 (0.18%) 242.09M
MAV 10.56 +0.10 (0.96%) 244.05M
MHI 11.75 +0.04 (0.34%) 260.63M
NMZ 11.17 +0.32 (2.95%) 264.70M
NMD 10.69 +0.17 (1.62%) 167.67M
PMM 6.13 0.00 (0.00%) 350.38M
PMO 10.17 +0.02 (0.20%) 131.95M
MNP 12.32 +0.03 (0.24%) 121.10M

Looking forward to part 2!

Jon Stewart Takes on Goldman Sachs [Video]

Blindly and religiously following a party is the opposite of being free. When I see one party unnecessarily hurting our collective interests or even just my interests, at the next election, I will vote for the other side, just as a warning or punishment. Maybe if we all follow this approach, in 20 years, we will have a majority of decent politicians.

My only exception to this rule, in my life so far, was Bush the 2nd. This president was so destructive and evil in his stupidity, that I suspect, I will have to give my vote, blindly to the democrats one more time, just on principal.

Be Free fellow investors!

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

Thanks for the article and advice.

Employment Numbers Uniformly Horrible

Many here (commentators) should do some thinking before simply repeating simplistic ideas. Think with your own brain. Look at history to try to comprehend the present.

Simply picking a camp or team and blindly repeating the brainless talking points without independent judgment and analysis makes reading most of those comments depressing and hopeless.

At the invasion of Iraq, 75% of Fox News viewers believed S. Hussein was behind 9/11. When most, even uneducated, people in the world know that nothing could have further then the truth. When will we cease to be so ignorant?

And how much exactly directly and indirectly will this little adventure cost us, 3, 5 or 10 trillions?

I guess this ignorance is a great opportunity for many to abuse and profit from. So continue being stupid all the way to the poor house.

Happy 4th!

Is Our Lost Decade on the Fast Track?

I think a lost decade is already the case. All major US indexes are at late 90s level. The question is, will we loose another one?

Why We Over-Weight Emerging Markets

Thanks for the article.

My asset allocations have been matching your thesis, since some time.

However, it's important to remember that in many of those countries radical societal moves (revolution, major regime change ...) are possible and maybe even to be expected. So the burden for those going "heavy" on emerging market is to follow closely the world event, their meaning and take action when required (i.e. exit).

Here are examples of realistic events concerning China:
a) China is a communist country with billionaires. How confused is that ;-)
A very serious contradiction that will have to be reconciled. It is possible that this reconciliation will be brutal and probably play out over a decade or more. Worst case scenario would be a freezing of foreign assets.

b) China's will face a multitude of other un-avoidable issues that have to be constantly monitored.
- Capital risk just getting too high, generating a capital exodus (back to where capital as been will treated for the last 100 years: US)
This could be triggered by a small political even, war ...etc... In my opinion, this is the most likely short term danger.

- China's most challenging task of bringing an additional 1 billion people to "1st world" living standards with all the traps and dangers in doing so (knowledge,revolt,reli... regions,water...etc...).

- The typical problems of developing countries at a huge scale (corruption,cooking the books...etc..)

- China's "1 child policy" will be a disaster for retirements. It is similar to the developed countries problem but x2.

Other emerging countries have similar issues with sometimes their own specificities.

China, Shipping and the Great Commodity Carry Trade

Good job Mark... I like your ideas, style and good nature!

Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Activity Catching Up to Oil (USO)

HardToLove you should make relatively small blog entries. With each entry trying to make one main point.

Everyday or even multiple times a day, when you want to share some idea, make a new entry.

good luck...

Top 5 Most Desired ETFs by Fund Flow Percentage

Thanks for the article.

I also think NG is due for a pop (in fact today it's doing a little pop). If NG is so cheap and OIL so high, the laws of capitalism dictate that demand for the cheapest energy will rise...basic 101 stuff....
Granted it could take time for this adjustment...

Gary concerning the ETF you have to take that with a grain of salt. For example in my Sharebuilder401k (owned by ING) account my only choice for emerging markets is EEM. My second none-US ETF is EFA.

If fact my total choice is around a dozen ETFs... so of course those 12 ETFs will look favored. I'm suspecting other ETF based 401k offer a similar choice....

The S&P 500 Still Can't Break Through the 200 Day Exponential Moving Average

Man did you cover your short..CROX up nearly 16% !


On Jun 10 05:28 PM discov wrote:

> I am getting short CROX myself. I think it's got a lot more quick
> downside potential. also the recent high at $4.25 is the obvious
> stop out point.
>
> My chart is here tinyurl.com/lel36y

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

Well done.
I agree 100% with your analysis. However I'm not certain about your conclusion (which is a possibility).

I can also see our society continue for another 20+ years by using more bubbles (like we have been for many years already) and maybe more wars towards the end. Honestly this could last another few centuries...

Similarly to your idea (the US will "collapse"), it is a certitude, that we will all die one day. But to live a healthy life we do NOT think about it every day... we will submit to it when it comes and all will be fine in the end...

----

Now for the purpose of debate, can you image a world with the US being bankrupt? If the US is no more the main economic force of "capitalism", who will it be:
- Communist China with it's one child per family rule (I'm bullish on china by the way)
- 3rd world country India with 42% living below the poverty line (about $1/day)
- ?

One could argue that the form of "wall street capitalism", as we know it today, will live and die with the dominance of the United States. In other words, with the collapse of the US, a new system will emerge with it's own set of rules and dynamics. At which time, the rich and the smart should also do well....nothing to fear but fear itself....

Peace,
C