rick12345

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

Thank you for your divinity, but the fact of the matter is that insiders were looking for any excuse to drive markets lower. Why? So they can buy stocks at a cheaper price before selling them in a week or two at profit.
Dubai has gone from 19% growth to 4% in just two years. It therefore becomes increasingly obvious that the government is losing precious income as a result of foreign investors holding off projects that were planned before the economic crisis. Nonetheless, The United Arab Emirates still sources most of its GDP derived income ($270 billion) from the sale of natural resources such as oil and gas (approx $208 billion).
I suspect this region will eventually return to some form of normality as the economic crises eases, however the country is not about to go broke and bring the world down with it like some bears wish.

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

How sad that the ruler of Abu-dhabi won't be able to buy another solid silver Audi.
Another lame attempt by insiders to acquire cheap stocks, but hey it worked. I must hand it to the British this time for being so opportunistic as to play this same card on a day when the world's biggest market is closed. It's a bloody restructuring, not a default.
I somehow won't be selling my holdings today or even next week. The markets were so much better before idiots began buying stocks over the internet.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

I have an even better idea. Instead of trying to blow the piss out of countries like afghanistan, Iraq & Iran while spending billions to do so, why doesn't the US offer to build a few Hospitals, Universities, nuclear power plants and the like, in exchange for oil. In the meantime open your trade borders' to these nations and work co-operatively to develop a long term solution to the problem of dwindling oil reserves.
A little international diplomacy can go a long way you know.

Being Thankful for Bullish Economic Data

I think you'll survive on duck for once.

Today in Commodities: Even Pilgrims and Indians Traded Commodities

i think the important thing to remember is that people are feeling confident enough to spend money this year.
Gold still worries me even though it keeps moving higher. The price is being pushed up because of investor concern that the world is moving away from usd and into gold as a reserve currency. Unfortunately, we all know what happens when liquidity gets to saturation point and there are no more buyers for those ridiculously priced etf's.

Today's Economic Data: Feeding the Market's Bipolarity

And you don't think a 3.5% improvement from -0.7 to 2.8 is impressive? Stimulus or no stimulus, it's better than the 10% negative GDP the US would have experienced had the government done nothing.
The economic theory of Laissez faire didn't work during the 1930's depression and it wouldn't work now. Japan is a prime example of allowing markets to correct themselves and demonstrates clearly the failure of adopting a Keynesian approach toward monetary policy. In my opinion, the economic crisis was brought about by a lack of government intervention, not the other way around.

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.8%

www.bea.gov/newsreleas...

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.8%

The GDP reading didn't really surprise anyone with half a brain in their head, hence the reason why markets consolidated earlier losses. Growth of 2.8% during any other time would be considered normal, but according to our media the developed world is headed toward another catastrophic recession. Did somebody forget to remind people that GDP in the previous quarter was -0.7%, a turnaround of 3.5% (annualized). For people intelligent enough to understand the numbers here's a link to the report, which by all accounts, is quite positive :
www.bea.gov/newsreleas...
/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Once again I find it amusing that the ICSC retail sales were completely ignored even though they showed another improvement in consumer spending. But then again they only make headlines when there is an unexpected fall.
I think it may be the media who are leading people astray with their selective reporting rather than the government.

October 2009 Existing Home Sales: Government-Sponsored Surge in Home Sales Continues

Republicans,liberals, Tories (whatever you want to call them) will always critique tax cuts unless they remain the privilege of those who are fortunate enough to sustain a high standard of living, regardless of economic conditions. The tax break helps those young families trying to purchase their first home, who up until now have been priced out of the housing market due to fat cat investors and greedy landlords. As someone above pointed out, I didn't see too many people complaining about tax cuts during the boom years, even though it was clear as day that the government was running unsustainable deficits.
The federal reserve knows fully well that the only way to fix the mess is to overhaul the tax system so that it becomes fairer for people on a low income and more expensive to those who can afford it. It has been proven time and time again in overseas models that a large deficit can only be eliminated if the powers that be introduce some type of value added tax which punishes spending and rewards saving. However, in order to push the barrow you need to fix the wheel first.

Today in Commodities: Sidelines vs. Market

re: natural gas

There are people still worried about the high level of natural gas being held in reserve. Demand is sluggish and will probably remain that way until the US views natural gas as a serious alternative to other sources of energy.

Is Japan the Catalyst for a Stronger Dollar?

Isn't it funny how none of the doomsday predictions ever become reality. For example the Dow Jones didn't fall to 1000, Natural gas never went to 0, the global economy hasn't contracted by 4% ,Asian markets still haven't imploded, and inflation in the US has barely registered a positive gain.

Is the Market Reversal Already Happening?

I can manipulate figures to prove any outcome I choose, however it doesn't necessarily make them true - 88 times -WTF??

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

The OECD won't allow the USD to fall much further than $0.75 Euro. Doing so would spell disaster for economic recovery around the rest of the world.

Today in Commodities: Expensive Game of Chicken

If the US dollar closes below 0.67 Euro it could spell "lights out" for gold.
VIX is nowhere near the volume required for a mass sell off, nor does it indicate the formation of an asset bubble. Gold, however, is another story which is why I'm staying the hell away (personal opinion - don't take it to heart).

Today in Commodities: Expensive Game of Chicken

9900 dow would indicate a further sell off. Ultimately this may or may not happen and I'm not ready to make that call yet. At those levels S&P would fall below the previous ceiling of 1040, sparking a deeper correction. Fridays' volume was light but prices went up instead of down so someone was buying. Unless there is particularly bad news I can't see markets heading south too much further.
Investors are presently in a "let's wait and see what happens" mode so markets will react according to the news of the day.