Marco Hickey's Comments

Visa: Next on the S&P 500?

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 07:33:35 -0500

Looks like today is the day we've waited for! Announced after hours Friday and up almost 4% as of now.

On Jul 01 09:03 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:

> I agree with you marco Ive been waiting anxiously for v to dip below
> 60
> A great buy!

37 Breakout Stocks on Big Volume, November 16, 2009

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:08:37 -0500

Not a bad pick for choosing out of 37 stocks, taking profits in it today.

4 Earnings Season Option Strategies

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:16:25 -0500

Yes before commissions, however I pay flat $9.95 for all trades whether it's 1 contract or 2000 contracts through OptionsHouse... Check them out at: www.kqzyfj.com/click-3...

On Nov 07 02:00 PM TCK wrote:

> " even on eBay (EBAY), which sold off nearly 10% after earnings.
> I was able to purchase back the put options (closed the position)
> for a $4 per contract gain the following day. "
>
>
> After looking at the the option prices, presuming this means the
> profit was .04 per contract before commissions ?

4 Earnings Season Option Strategies

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:06:05 -0500

Yes, I took a quick beating on BIDU as it opened below my target price of 360; but just as I close the position on a large pop (as profit taking may occur in the next session(s)), I hold the put on a massive sell off with a stock like Baidu, I really don't mind taking ownership of (as stated in the article, is the key to this strategy), because buyers will most likely take advantage of the "new" lower price (as they did). Baidu is almost 50 points above the strike I sold with less than 2 weeks until expiration (not to mention the high theta just eating the premium away), and the position is currently resulting in a gain as of Friday's close. As stated in the post, these are all stocks I don't mind owning going forward, and if they get PUT to me, I'll take the stock at expiration and start cost averaging down by writing covered calls on them. Thanks for the comment.

On Nov 07 12:53 PM User 447425 wrote:

> You did not mention how thay BIDU earning strategy worked out for
> you?

Baidu and Perfect World: Two Trading Ideas

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:55:38 -0400

It should have been Monday October 26, as Baidu reports after the bell today. Sorry for any confusion.

An Earnings Season Options Strategy

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:36:52 -0400

I am quite happy I opened this position! Apple just killed the expectations! Will certainly be happy tomorrow! Another positive for me is that it is bringing shares of Google up to a new 52-week high after hours!

Baidu and Perfect World: Two Trading Ideas

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:17:18 -0400

Sold the 40 puts yesterday on PWRD for $150 per contract and just closed the position for $20 per contract.

Breakout Stocks to Watch This Week

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:20:02 -0400

This TIF strategy is really paying off!!

50 Four-Day September Expiration Option Ideas

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:33:09 -0400

Calculations are based on prices as of market close Monday September 14.

On Sep 15 09:42 PM S2009 wrote:

> The table is incomplete, no price at the time of publication or no
> bid/ask for options. So if you do not see this table exactly at
> the moment of publication (which is not shown, is it Sep 2009 or
> Jan 2007 - nobody knows) it is basically useless.

Friday's Options Recap

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:39:42 -0400

I thought it was unusual to see the Regions Financial (RF) September 5 puts trade amongst the most active, as it would need to lose about 12% over the next 5 trading days (which includes a $0.10 dividend spin out) in order for the bet to pay off. I noticed there was an unusually large amount of straddles opened for the December S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 105 strike.

Today in Commodities: Is 9 Your Lucky Number?

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:08:14 -0400

Good article, I am using the UCO and USO for my oil trades and will remain in the call spreads until: (A) I get called out or (B) the dollar starts to get stronger (which I don't see anytime soon). I am also long the GLD LEAP 2011 50's and have been using diagonal call spreads to create income monthly. As of now I have written the September 98, 99, 100, and 101 against my LEAP GLD calls.

Not All Dividend Stocks Are Overvalued

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:39:03 -0400

Good information. I like CLX and ABT. Although the dividend has been cut greatly y/y, I still hold Frontline (FRO) for the yield.

Takeover Update: Short Positions on Cadbury and Kraft

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:36:00 -0400

Good info to know, thank you.

Using Option Spreads to Capture a Crude Move

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:51:25 -0400

Correction: Crude inventories will be released Thursday due to the holiday Monday.

Breakout Stocks to Watch This Week

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:46:00 -0400

Thank you Eli.

On Sep 09 08:52 AM Eli Hoffmann wrote:

> ENCO! Great call Marco!

AIG Up 409% and Still Not at Highs for the Year

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 12:23:44 -0400

I purchased some September 30 put contracts while the stock was near $50 a share at noon. I think it is way overbought! Implied Vol on the put side should keep rising meaning even if the stock continues to rise, I may profit from the volatility on the puts... Have an order in to buy them back for $150 per contract (in at $80).

The Next Shoe to Drop in Banking: An Options Strategy

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:52:20 -0400

Good thoughts. I have similar strategies and other short option positions on many financials. I am hedging with Citigroup January 2010 5/12.50 Vertical call spreads.

Will the Market Crash?

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 04:04:06 -0400

I have been selling in the money calls for a week now... I actually splurged and even bought September put options on Thursday and Friday as well for many major banks as well as the highly leveraged FAS.

3 Summer Rally Option Ideas: Large Upside, Limited Downside

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:46:56 -0400

No option delta is not a reason to buy or sell a stock/option in my opinion. I state that the pricing can change quickly over night and it does. No it's not my only analytical tool. This strategy is simply a way to get into a continued rally for cheaper than purchasing the stock (in case the market sells off). If you purchase slightly in the money calls on the major indices and it rallies you make money, if it sells off you have limited downside to the price paid for the spread. Have you read any other posts? Most of my posts talk about selling calls or puts on stocks to gain the premium and protect. See this site about price distribution www.hoadley.net/option...

3 Summer Rally Option Ideas: Large Upside, Limited Downside

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 22:07:59 -0400

When I write a covered call and have the chance to buy it back for a profit I do, then I'm patient and write it back out. The market is volatile and the slightest change in the underlying asset could result in a great change in the option premium. I have traded the higher strike option back and fourth multiple times in one day before if profitable. I don't know why I need to provide links when you can google it, but on my blog the post I talk about option probability is: optionmaestro.blogspot...

I don't base my trades on delta values but it gives me a quick idea on where to write and where to buy the option.

3 Summer Rally Option Ideas: Large Upside, Limited Downside

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 14:33:36 -0400

If you would have been buying spreads in the last 6 months you would have made a lot of money (as I have), so I don't know what you're talking about losing money. If you knew how to do some simple research (or even search my blog for option probability) correctly, you would find many ways of calculating option probability. Most brokerages give some kind of probability calculator tools out for free. Email me and I'll send you a copy of my e-book for free with the probability % highlighted if you'd like...

On Aug 02 01:58 PM LanceLink wrote:

> Option spreads, while not as risky as simply buying a call, is yet
> another example of directional trading, which only works if the underlying
> stock moves in the direction you want. If it goes the other way
> -- especially buying front-month calls (here, with three weeks left)
> -- your position is going to lose a lot, really fast. Even with
> spreads. The fact that you sold the upper-strike call is of little
> consolation.
>
> Also, as with almost every other article Mr. Hickey writes, he matter-of-factly
> peppers the prose with statements that "the __ strike call option
> is factoring in a __% chance it will expire at or above it at ___
> expiration." This obsession with "chances" and what "chance" is
> "factored in" is neither explained, nor is it a useful metric.
>
>
> [Note to Marco: I scoured your blog. I looked at your book. Other
> than perhaps a fleeting mention of the mechanics of option pricing,
> at no point do you explain your utter preoccupation with what price
> move the market is "factoring in." I have read a plethora of options
> related books and materials, over many years, and I have never before
> encountered anything coming close to the emphasis you have placed
> on this one pricing factor.]
>
> Sell calls. Sell puts, if you're comfortable doing that. But buying
> spreads is just another way to lose money, and gives you a false
> sense of security.
>
>
>

Recession Is Over: Long Live Depression

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 03:16:35 -0400

Great article. These are my thoughts exactly... Can you really cure a hangover with another drink?

20 Option Ideas to Protect and Profit: Financials

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 23:18:38 -0400

Thank you, delta neutral strategies see: optionmaestro.blogspot...

On Jul 31 03:51 PM Investing In The future wrote:

> good article - where did you get your probablitiies ?

Oil Takes a Dive; Is It Still Alive? 45 Option Strategies

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:51:50 -0400

I forgot to mention in this article that yesterday the third most active traded option contract was the January 55 USO call... See top ten from yesterday at: optionmaestro.blogspot... I just thought it was interesting that that many January 55 USO calls traded yesterday.

Breakout Stocks on Huge Volume: Three Option Trades

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:41:00 -0400

Yes I purchased several August call 5's for $35 per contract. 20% higher after hours... I'll definitely look to lighten up tomorrow.

Using Options to Get a Sirius Discount

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 14:40:39 -0400

Look at it in terms of % not $.. Its a 25% discount if you can get it... Bid is 5 cents right now. On the next spike you may see a 10 cent bid... I did say it requires some patience...

On Jul 27 02:33 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> No, timing is everything. Buy them on spikes, sell back on the dips.
> No spike right now, therefore its a fool trade. Good luck even getting
> .10 cents right now. But if some poor sucker puts up a .10 cent sell
> right now, the first spike will take it out, and .15 or .20 might
> have been possible. Wasted money. This is the bottom. No need to
> hedge a .40 cent stock. Unless you see BK in the next 6 months, which
> is impossible for 2 years, at least, and now probably never.

Using Options to Get a Sirius Discount

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:16:39 -0400

It's a way to lower your cost for someone getting long and not to trade it every day. It is lowering your cost by 25% and puts you in for roughly 30 cents a share. Sirius needs to be at $1.11 a share by December to make this bet not worth it. This is if you want to get long. Do you think Sirius is going to get to $2 or $3 ever again? If they could make money it is one thing, but they can't. Short interest is less than 4% on this stock. Not to mention it has a long way to go before any institutions buy it.

On Jul 27 11:42 AM relmar2003 wrote:

> This is terrible advice. Not worth giving up 6 months time on my
> shares for .10 cents. And you wont get .15 cents at even .50 cents,
> so nice try. No chance. Better to wait till it breaks .60 cents
> again, to begin even looking at them, which it will here shortly.
> This guy wants you to shoot your load too soon. Dumb play. I doubt
> this guys is making this trade. If he is, he doesnt know options
> or what Q3 is going to do to there bottom line, hence hes playing
> a company he doesnt understand. I would never lock up my shares for
> .10 cents, before the Q3 comes out. No way. Not a chance. Patience.
> Very little time decay if you wait until after Q2 or before for the
> run up, and then try for a .15 or .20 cent grab. In July,/August,
> I need at least .25 cents to make it worth it. If this stock does
> run to $1, keep your shares, and write calls for .60 cents or more
> a share, covering you all the way back to .40 cents. Thats if it
> happens in the next couple months.

3 Income Generating Strategies Using Index ETFs and Options

Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:40:20 -0400

Diagonal spread not calendar-typo

Why I Sell Put Options (Part II)

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:07:15 -0400

Limit stock orders.. You know what I mean. I use limit option orders to place my put option trades.

On Jul 21 04:54 PM Carneades wrote:

> If you never use market orders, and only rarely use limit orders,
> then what sort of an order do you use to sell the put option?

15 Breakout Stocks on Big Volume

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:30:13 -0400

Most brokerages will give you this probability easily, otherwise look into the Black-Scholes option pricing model. See two posts here:

optionmaestro.blogspot...

optionmaestro.blogspot...

On Jul 20 05:25 PM User 449106 wrote:

> Hi Marco,
> I wanted to know how you find out the probability of an option closing
> at certain price.For E.g in your CBLI vertical spread you say
>
> "but if the stock increases to 7.50 a share by options expiration
> (currently less than a 20% probability)"
>
> How do you find out that probability of closing at 7.50 is 20%

>
> Thanks,
> Vikas.
>
>