Ben Stein: "The sad truth is that the economy is still extremely ill. The recovery we were all waiting for has not started in any meaningful way." [View news story]
Isn't this the same guy that talked about bargins at the end of 2007? Why should I believe anything he says?
2009 Is the Year of Premature Top Calls [View article]
Maybe people see a much lower risk in shorting at major resistance like 805 with a stop at 810 then going long with a huge/no stop that feels likely to be hit, but take any profits they can because of the obvious strength or raise stops to break even points. If they use trailing stops instead of targets they can even get low risk big reward with strategies like that if we ever do hit the lows.
People look at history and don't see V shaped bottoms of recessions and they find risk in saying this time its different. People find risk in trading against the major trend. And a lot of people find risk in buying something that has moved up so much. Mid term buying right now is basically Big risk Big reward. Short term trading is lower risk lower reward. Looking at risk as simply probability then yeah you may be right, but as a combination probability/money at risk I like the short term technical odds better even now.
I don't find this top calling surprising at all, and honestly don't think its a big deal one way or the other. I remember bottom calls every day while we were free falling including the day we really did hit bottom.
When Will the Global Recession End? [View article]
I really really dont like you Cetin. Not only do you post in every single news story advertising your blog, but you are just not a very good advisor. You take each and every piece of information and either spin it to be bullish or say it doesn't matter. It is painfully obvious to me that you have decided to go bullish for what ever reason and will never analyze anything critically to determine the other direction, and I hope you don't get any new follows from the blatant advertising you do on this site. I'm not saying you are wrong because you are a bull, I am saying you are wrong because you can't analyze the markets. Even if this is a straight line up you are still wrong.
Sure there are many bears who do the same thing, and take every news story as bearish, manipulated, or only temporary, but they don't post in every story here trying to get followers. I personally hope you get banned for advertising. I know you get around it by writing a new comment for every post and only link to it every other post, but the end result is a link to your blog on half of the pages here, and I don't think that's right.
We're Still Not Done with This Bear Market Rally [View article]
Indeed it feels like everyone is saying retest to 770ish and bull market from then on out. I find it very rare to find people saying just a straight line up and I find the only people saying new lows are commentators, not bloggers or pundits. It feels like to me many of the forum commenter are perma-bear too. As a contrarian, i guess you might want to wait until those retest crys go away somehow or waiting for even seekingalpha turning mostly bullish (i haven't been here long enough to judge it).
I admit this isn't near the bullishness of the 950 January high or the bearishness of the 666 lows, but it is getting there. It will be interesting to see the sentiment if we get up to the lower-to-mid 900s without a huge retest
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www.engadget.com/2009/.../
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Ben Stein: "The sad truth is that the economy is still extremely ill. The recovery we were all waiting for has not started in any meaningful way." [View news story]
2009 Is the Year of Premature Top Calls [View article]
People look at history and don't see V shaped bottoms of recessions and they find risk in saying this time its different. People find risk in trading against the major trend. And a lot of people find risk in buying something that has moved up so much. Mid term buying right now is basically Big risk Big reward. Short term trading is lower risk lower reward. Looking at risk as simply probability then yeah you may be right, but as a combination probability/money at risk I like the short term technical odds better even now.
I don't find this top calling surprising at all, and honestly don't think its a big deal one way or the other. I remember bottom calls every day while we were free falling including the day we really did hit bottom.
When Will the Global Recession End? [View article]
Sure there are many bears who do the same thing, and take every news story as bearish, manipulated, or only temporary, but they don't post in every story here trying to get followers. I personally hope you get banned for advertising. I know you get around it by writing a new comment for every post and only link to it every other post, but the end result is a link to your blog on half of the pages here, and I don't think that's right.
We're Still Not Done with This Bear Market Rally [View article]
I admit this isn't near the bullishness of the 950 January high or the bearishness of the 666 lows, but it is getting there. It will be interesting to see the sentiment if we get up to the lower-to-mid 900s without a huge retest
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]