H Nguyen

The Fed Already Buys Back Last Week's Treasury Notes

They will and have been bidding the market

Is Anyone Else Skittish About Markets Lately?

Have you noticed that the mainstream media and the analysts are beginning to sing the same song? If you look back you can see that negative sentiment was the theme in early 2009 all the way to March 9, 2009. Look into the short to see who lent out the shares for short traders. Then the rally in early march was boosted with the help of the media screaming BULL all the way into July, short squeeze, and the FED reflating prices just as John Law did for FRANCE. Now they are at it again. If you look beneath the econ numbers, they represent a different reality. It is almost perfect that they now know what to look for in the next wave. That's why we have gotten to learn surfing!

Unemployment: Historical Chart Sends Scary Message

Nothing to be freaking out, brother. All you have to do is learn to surf. Gone with the wind, baby!

FHA: Growth Is the Problem

FHA is subprime with guarantee

4 Companies with Solid Dividend Growth Metrics

These analyses and metric have worked well in the past. However, if the macro econ does not pick up soon, earnings are threaten and cash dividend is likely to follow.

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

While it's true that the long term prospect is dim, we all have to survive. That means we all have to navigate this market so we can prosper while waiting for a striking opportunity.

Wishing you a good buy or short.

Peace!!!

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I agree to the fact that markets are breaking down, but there is a chance of a rally in the range of 200 - 350 points in the Dow before this month ends, then we might see a correction of about 10% (maybe a slight chance of 12%) in the Dow as early as 2nd week of July. The FED's target 10 yr yield is about 2.375% - 2.75%. Then we will have 2Q earnings.

If a Rally Runs on Volume, This One Is Running Out of Steam

While we are waiting for signs of deterioration in the market, just consider one point: The market can go higher very slowly into the coming months, maybe all the way though July or August since the banks have over $800 billion war chest (excess reserve) that they can buy this market up. All the big banks have trading desks and programs, and they certainly can out last all the shorts. Also, the government is backing them up big time.

We appreciate the charts and the TA, but price will move and change all the TA in the short term. If certain conditions exists, with a small amount of equity, you can manipulate the market. This is what we call minority effect.

Employment Report Indigestion

Quick point: The unemployment (in my opinion is an early indicator) during a recession. When a person is unemployed, is he/she more or less likely to spend money? We all can answer this question without any doubt. What does that say about an economic recovery when 70% of GDP is is base on consumer spending? Not only we will see no recovery in the 2nd half of 2009, consumers will reduce spending significantly from the lost of wealth, deflation (look at the price of technologies), lost of credits, and jobs. Baby boomers will have to work more and save even more since they have lost over 30% of their wealth, can't count on pension, face higher healthcare costs, social security benefit is about to be cut (in fact, medical for dental has been cut for adult over the age of 21 effectively July 2009), and higher taxes.

TARP Repayments: Investors Get Screwed Again

Yes, small guys get smack, but the damage from the small guys compare to the damage for those who sent their monies from overseas (countries) that benefited from out sourcing and high oil price) are so small.

Credit Default Swaps May Be Playing a Supporting Role in Chrysler Bankruptcy Filings

Amen!!!


On Apr 30 01:27 PM infp wrote:

> The Barry O comment was tacky. However, I do agree that with Summers
> as his chief financial adviser all the moves of the Obama administration
> will be to protect Wall Street at the expense of the nation.

Why is the Market Ignoring American Express's Bad Report?

The market is looking forward, some people still expect an economic bottom in 2Q and Summers and Bernanke think 3Q. Just wait for about a month when people see the retail sales and consumer spending coming negative, that is when reality will set in. Just remember to profit from it.