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GrantQ

GrantQ
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  • Why U-Swirl's Share Price Could Double By Year's End [View article]
    apparently neither october nor january was the time to buy.

    seems the market doesn't share your faith in their growth plans. Not surprising since management makes ridiculous promises like "3,000 stores" when even a big supporter like yourself sees that's not realistic (short of merging with other big players).

    You put weight on "all U-Swirl has to do is collect the $25,000 initial franchise fee" which suggests you don't really understand franchising. In general, food franchise initial fees are rather close to breakeven since every new franchise requires a lot of work from the franchisor. That $25k only buys about 4 man-months of support staff, which isn't too much for opening a new food service location.

    That attitude, however, is exactly gives potential franchisees pause when they think about signing up. They may wonder if that $25k+5% is better off in their OWN pocket, which explains why so much of their growth comes from acquisitions and not from eager new owners looking to sign onto the brand name.

    This is a tough, commodity business on both ends. Kudos to this company for making a profit at it. It looks like the share price is getting close to its real value.
    Aug 13, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    the proposal appears ill-conceived; in particular: convertibles, Pref-Cs, Pref-Ds get screwed & have no reason to support the plan.

    yes existing shareholders would be heavily diluted, but they have to accept the reality that YLO only has $33m market cap vs. the bondholders forgiving ~$250m in debt. If the company was doing a secondary offering to raise *7.5x* its market cap in cash, just how much dilution would be appropriate?
    Aug 16, 2012. 05:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    Looking in the rearview mirror at past performance just means you're not going to notice that you're driving off a cliff. That kind of analysis (They're making $x/yr, how can I lose!) is what cost current shareholders 99% of their investment.

    You mention 50% of revenues... 50% of last year's revenues? This year's? 5 years from now? It's easy for their digital revenue to be a bigger slice of the pie when that pie is constantly shrinking.

    If you think YLO really has what it takes to compete in the online space, then sure invest in the company. But if you make that analysis based solely on them being able to temporarily grow that business by picking low-hanging fruit from their existing customer base, then I expect you to follow this stock off another cliff.
    Aug 16, 2012. 05:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Would Buy SuperMedia If He Knew About It [View article]
    "I am locking in a 100-bagger with a 500% cumulative yield once they start paying out."

    If the proposed restructuring is approved, that "100-bagger" just got a kick in the nuts.

    Clearly your definition of "Risk-free 200% return" is different than most people's. Makes me question the rest of your analysis.
    Aug 12, 2012. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    A company with this much positive cashflow shouldn't require "recapitalization" but management screwed up so badly, there apparently is a real risk of bankruptcy if they don't get some relief on their financing.

    Common shareholders now will own 100% of nothing... at least 17% of a viable company is better than that.

    I think anyone who believes YLO's bluster about "transforming into an online company" faces endless disapointment. How many years have they been spinning that line? Incumbents have been eating YLO's lunch for years and there's no reason to suspect they can suddenly become competitive after so much failure.
    Jul 30, 2012. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    Ouch, 1 year later and anyone who invested in this debacle has taken a 99% haircut.

    This "Simba Information" company clearly is inept. I can understand why private investors kept getting sucked into this value trap (value blackhole actually) but those so-called "experts" should be wearing paper bags over their heads.
    May 29, 2012. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The FCC Chose To Believe A Lie [View article]
    "HowStuffWorks recently looked at real costs, based on a new undersea cable now crossing the Atlantic."

    And do you REALLY think that an undersea cable is the only expense that ISPs incur to get data all the way to the modem sitting in your living room? If so, I worry for anyone following your investment recommendations.
    May 29, 2012. 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    Gotcha Patrick, I apologize for misreading that.
    May 17, 2011. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellow Media's Improved Prospects: Share Price Decline a Boon for Investors [View article]
    "... I decided to see what one of the market experts had to say. ...(extracted from the Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2011), "

    Kind of like asking the pope which is the true religion?

    These are the same guys who:
    a) managed to lose share price over the last 2 years despite the greatest stock market bull run in our lifetimes
    b) lost $100m+ on their Trader adventure, not to mention whatever operating income they poured into the venture
    c) bought in at $5.99 when a 25%+ discount was available just around the corner

    If those are the "experts" then i'll listen to the amateurs all day long.
    May 17, 2011. 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Better Deal Than Commodities Over the Long Haul. Here Are 3 to Consider [View article]
    Dividend stocks have already proven themselves, no need to wait 110 years.

    Not sure about these particular recommendations though... the first 2 are in decline (the 2nd for obvious reasons), while preferreds give you all the risk from rate hikes with none of the appreciation potential.

    There's much better dividend plays out there!
    May 13, 2011. 02:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Free Fall Continues, More Downside Remains [View article]
    Obviously his May 19th prediction (the one you linked to) was proven totally wrong.

    Makes me wonder how many other predictions he was backwards on but neglects to mention after the fact.
    Aug 28, 2010. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Short Squeeze: Once in a Lifetime Opportunity? [View article]
    Surely it's obvious that most SLV investors are only interested in the potential profits of owning an appreciating metal. i.e. at some point they're going to want cash they can actually spend on stuff.

    So what's the difference between taking cash in settlement, vs. demanding the physical metal and then immediately selling it?
    Apr 18, 2010. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Safest Dividends in the S&P [View article]
    Altria is literally killing its most loyal customers. Smoking is continually becoming more socially unacceptable which inevitably means decreasing sales. And low-priced competitors will keep attack the profit margins of this shrinking market.

    The returns may be good for now but even before we talk about lawyers & politicians, the growth potential looks really grim.
    Apr 9, 2010. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Debt - No Big Deal? [View article]
    "Oh, and if you ever expect to see GM pay back the money they got, well, I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one."

    As of the end of March, GM has paid back $2.4 billion. If you get such basic facts wrong, how reliable can anyone expect your conclusions to be?
    Apr 7, 2010. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Targeting Is Like a Norwegian Blue Parrot [View article]
    There's no books about "Collapse of the supply chain" and not really discussion of it on the internet except for comments posted by you or those likeminded to yourself.

    Perhaps this opens the possibility that the "Collapse of the supply chain", whatever that may be, isn't an imminent danger?
    Feb 16, 2010. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
28 Comments
22 Likes