Axion Power Concentrator 132: July 28, 2012 [View instapost]
iindelco; many thanks, and much appreciated. Good to see that despite the difficult economic times in Europe; the push is still on to lower emissions; and hopefully; eventually axion will be part of that lowering - - jmcheln
Second... an article re: Siemens research... addressing electric trucks/freight... Into the future – with eHighway Innovative solutions for road freight traffic:
Axion Power Concentrator 99: May 13, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries [View instapost]
48 and DRich;
re: disruptive technologies for EOR/Energy Oil Recovery... if u have not already check out Wavefront Technology Solutions (listed on Canadian venture xchng as wee.v & on pnk sheets as wftsf.pk) .
Great tech, good company, dismal pps performance... similar to Axion in those regards. I believe patient longs will be handsomely rewarded; do yr. own dd.
Lithium-Ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles: Upgrading the Storm Watch to Storm Warning [View article]
JLP and readers; I was recently reading Scientific American (Nov. 2009) story entitled ‘The Future of Cars’. The article is definitely relevant to this blog, and worth reading. A preview of the full article is online at www.scientificamerican... .
The magazine editor does a group interview of industry leaders including Bill Reinert (Toyota, National Manager, Advanced Tech. Vehicles, and frequently cited in past JP blogs), Larry Burns (General Motors, VP, R&D and Strategic Planning), Mark Duvall (Electric Power Research Institute, Director Electric Transportation and Energy Storage), and JB Straubel (Tesla Motors, Chief Technical Officer). Much of the interview Q&A content addresses the future of Lithium Ion batteries in the auto industry; economic and technical viability, timing and market share penetration issues, etc… Much of what was being said confirms JP’s position. Basically, in a nut-shell, the gist is ... don’t expect lithium ion batteries to play a huge role in the auto industry in the next 5-10 years in terms of market penetration. And even well after that, into 2030, a mix of technologies including ICE, HEV, and EVs will prevail.
Below, I share those parts of the article that I found most interesting; I hope others do as well. Note: I use initials to precede each interviewee’s responses to the ED (Editor/interviewer); so BR=Bill Reinert, LB=Lary Burns, MD=Mark Duvall, JBS = JB Straubel. Also, w/ some of the text below it is paraphrased (i.e. not always verbatim). Again, I encourage readers to either buy online or go to your local library to read the full original Scientific American article. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ED: lets talk about transportation fuels leading up to 2030?
BR: Internal Combustion Engine/ICE will continue to dominate at least through 2015, and probably through 2020. In addition to gasoline and diesel… other fuels will have a role to play including biogasoline, and 2nd and 3rd generation biofuels, also synthetic gasoline, and synthetic diesel… probably from algae, maybe also from municipal solid waste. Yet by 2020-2025, we may see a developed battery, a replacement for lithium technology that allows full, no-compromise electric cars. But they would still be a niche. At 2030, we will still have a mix including an internal combustion type component, strong hybrids, probably range extended electric vehicles and small electric vehicles, and fuel cells…
ED: Batteries are essential to many of the advanced vehicles now under development. Are they good enough yet?
LB: the Volt will have a 16 kwh battery and we’ll use only half that energy to run the car. We will learn and discover, and we will improve for sure, but we’ve got to get out there and start doing it. Our industry in normal times builds 70 million cars and trucks per year. So for any battery based solution to matter, you’re going to have to get into tens of millions of units per year, and I think we’ve got a ways to go before (durability and cost issues are solved enough to allow that kind of scale). As a manufacturer, if you have to replace the battery one or two times in a vehicle with a 150,000-mile lifetime you are in trouble. I do believe there will be continuous improvement with lithium-ion batteries, but I think we’re going to need some invention and breakthrough to get the cost per kwh down to where we need it to be. We’ve got to have some breakthrough here on chemistry. There is a big difference between using these batteries in your recording devices and cell phones and in an automobile in terms of the temperature extremes and (changing demands for power) …
BR: … Toyota, and I assume other manufacturers, is going to be very cautious about how we cycle the batteries, … about the modes we operate them in… and about the actual size of the battery, with an eye toward warranty costs. Lithium-ion batteries are still not available with the 150,000 mile durability you have with an ICE. So that’s going to limit the penetration of the battery powered cars to either niche markets, urban cars, plug-in hybrids with very small batteries, or range extended cars with moderate sized batteries.
JBS: … another way to look at this is to think about the cost per mile (including changing the battery pack if need be). … On these metrics, we’re close, possibly over a threshold in some cases, where its actually cheaper to own and operate an electric vehicle than a gasoline car. That’s not the case necessarily with $2 per gallon gasoline, but it absolutely is the case with $3.50 or $4 gasoline in most parts of Europe. And especially if there are any political incentives or tax credits involved.
ED: Is it practical to use plugged in electric vehicles to fill in low demand times on the grid?
MD: … In the short run, we agree with the automakers that we need to reach certain objectives with the vehicles, including lifetime batteries. Then we can start talking about doing other stuff. To us, smart charging (where electric cars and the grid can schedule lowest-cost battery recharging) is a daunting enough task for the present.
ED: … The fuel efficiency, exhaust emissions and safety of vehicles all have to meet standards. What are your thoughts about future regulation?
LB: Whether its electricity or renewables or whether its hydrogen, none of them by themselves can displace the amount of petroleum and CO2 that we’re talking about. … All this technology will matter only if we can get it to high volume. Because you’re not going to have impacts on energy environment … if you only sell specialized niche products. I just find so many regulators and politicians and other people weighing in on this debate who don’t have a clue about what’s required to get to high-volume commercialization of a technology.
MD: Lets be careful before we adopt very expensive alternatives that try to create a one-size-fits-all technology. We need to avoid the silver bullet approach - - its always proved to be generally more expensive and have less of a chance of success.
New MS Therapies: A Hard Pill to Swallow? [View article]
The article in the text mentions: Minor to moderate adverse effects affect the tolerability of a drug. Despite excellent safety data, many patients stop taking Avonex (Biogen - BIIB; Elan - ELN),
Avonex is a Biogen - BIIB product only, Elan-ELN does not own, market, or have any stake in Avonex. The BIIB-ELN partnership pertains to Tysabri; not Avonex.
Axion Power Concentrator 132: July 28, 2012 [View instapost]
Good to see that despite the difficult economic times in Europe; the push is still on to lower emissions; and hopefully; eventually axion will be part of that lowering - - jmcheln
Axion Power Concentrator 132: July 28, 2012 [View instapost]
Long time Long; and Long time lurker. Love the APC's; much indebted to all the "istas". I've learned a lot.
A couple of articles... on two very different topics that might be of interest... (and hoping they haven't been posted already).
First, a short article re: the EU; politics, and the push (and push-back) for tougher CO2 emission regs:
EU push for car CO2 cuts faces industry, green flak
http://yhoo.it/OvDUjB
Second... an article re: Siemens research... addressing electric trucks/freight...
Into the future – with eHighway Innovative solutions for road freight traffic:
http://bit.ly/OufEMC
- - jmcheln
Axion Power Concentrator 99: May 13, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries [View instapost]
re: disruptive technologies for EOR/Energy Oil Recovery...
if u have not already check out Wavefront Technology Solutions (listed on Canadian venture xchng as wee.v & on pnk sheets as wftsf.pk) .
Great tech, good company, dismal pps performance... similar to Axion in those regards. I believe patient longs will be handsomely rewarded; do yr. own dd.
for those interested ...
http://bit.ly/J3ULJN
http://bit.ly/KguAf3
glta, do yr. own dd.
- - jmcheln
Lithium-Ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles: Upgrading the Storm Watch to Storm Warning [View article]
The magazine editor does a group interview of industry leaders including Bill Reinert (Toyota, National Manager, Advanced Tech. Vehicles, and frequently cited in past JP blogs), Larry Burns (General Motors, VP, R&D and Strategic Planning), Mark Duvall (Electric Power Research Institute, Director Electric Transportation and Energy Storage), and JB Straubel (Tesla Motors, Chief Technical Officer). Much of the interview Q&A content addresses the future of Lithium Ion batteries in the auto industry; economic and technical viability, timing and market share penetration issues, etc… Much of what was being said confirms JP’s position. Basically, in a nut-shell, the gist is ... don’t expect lithium ion batteries to play a huge role in the auto industry in the next 5-10 years in terms of market penetration. And even well after that, into 2030, a mix of technologies including ICE, HEV, and EVs will prevail.
Below, I share those parts of the article that I found most interesting; I hope others do as well. Note: I use initials to precede each interviewee’s responses to the ED (Editor/interviewer); so BR=Bill Reinert, LB=Lary Burns, MD=Mark Duvall, JBS = JB Straubel. Also, w/ some of the text below it is paraphrased (i.e. not always verbatim). Again, I encourage readers to either buy online or go to your local library to read the full original Scientific American article.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ED: lets talk about transportation fuels leading up to 2030?
BR: Internal Combustion Engine/ICE will continue to dominate at least through 2015, and probably through 2020. In addition to gasoline and diesel… other fuels will have a role to play including biogasoline, and 2nd and 3rd generation biofuels, also synthetic gasoline, and synthetic diesel… probably from algae, maybe also from municipal solid waste. Yet by 2020-2025, we may see a developed battery, a replacement for lithium technology that allows full, no-compromise electric cars. But they would still be a niche. At 2030, we will still have a mix including an internal combustion type component, strong hybrids, probably range extended electric vehicles and small electric vehicles, and fuel cells…
ED: Batteries are essential to many of the advanced vehicles now under development. Are they good enough yet?
LB: the Volt will have a 16 kwh battery and we’ll use only half that energy to run the car. We will learn and discover, and we will improve for sure, but we’ve got to get out there and start doing it. Our industry in normal times builds 70 million cars and trucks per year. So for any battery based solution to matter, you’re going to have to get into tens of millions of units per year, and I think we’ve got a ways to go before (durability and cost issues are solved enough to allow that kind of scale). As a manufacturer, if you have to replace the battery one or two times in a vehicle with a 150,000-mile lifetime you are in trouble. I do believe there will be continuous improvement with lithium-ion batteries, but I think we’re going to need some invention and breakthrough to get the cost per kwh down to where we need it to be. We’ve got to have some breakthrough here on chemistry. There is a big difference between using these batteries in your recording devices and cell phones and in an automobile in terms of the temperature extremes and (changing demands for power) …
BR: … Toyota, and I assume other manufacturers, is going to be very cautious about how we cycle the batteries, … about the modes we operate them in… and about the actual size of the battery, with an eye toward warranty costs. Lithium-ion batteries are still not available with the 150,000 mile durability you have with an ICE. So that’s going to limit the penetration of the battery powered cars to either niche markets, urban cars, plug-in hybrids with very small batteries, or range extended cars with moderate sized batteries.
JBS: … another way to look at this is to think about the cost per mile (including changing the battery pack if need be). … On these metrics, we’re close, possibly over a threshold in some cases, where its actually cheaper to own and operate an electric vehicle than a gasoline car. That’s not the case necessarily with $2 per gallon gasoline, but it absolutely is the case with $3.50 or $4 gasoline in most parts of Europe. And especially if there are any political incentives or tax credits involved.
ED: Is it practical to use plugged in electric vehicles to fill in low demand times on the grid?
MD: … In the short run, we agree with the automakers that we need to reach certain objectives with the vehicles, including lifetime batteries. Then we can start talking about doing other stuff. To us, smart charging (where electric cars and the grid can schedule lowest-cost battery recharging) is a daunting enough task for the present.
ED: … The fuel efficiency, exhaust emissions and safety of vehicles all have to meet standards. What are your thoughts about future regulation?
LB: Whether its electricity or renewables or whether its hydrogen, none of them by themselves can displace the amount of petroleum and CO2 that we’re talking about. … All this technology will matter only if we can get it to high volume. Because you’re not going to have impacts on energy environment … if you only sell specialized niche products. I just find so many regulators and politicians and other people weighing in on this debate who don’t have a clue about what’s required to get to high-volume commercialization of a technology.
MD: Lets be careful before we adopt very expensive alternatives that try to create a one-size-fits-all technology. We need to avoid the silver bullet approach - - its always proved to be generally more expensive and have less of a chance of success.
End.
New MS Therapies: A Hard Pill to Swallow? [View article]
Minor to moderate adverse effects affect the tolerability of a drug. Despite excellent safety data, many patients stop taking Avonex (Biogen - BIIB; Elan - ELN),
Avonex is a Biogen - BIIB product only, Elan-ELN does not own, market, or have any stake in Avonex. The BIIB-ELN partnership pertains to Tysabri; not Avonex.