silentobserver

Emerging-Market Debt After Ecuador

"The Mission Song" by John Le Carre

5 Reasons Austria’s ETF Could Be on the Move

Alan,

Compared to German, French or Spanish Situation, the write-off losses in the Austrian financial system by February 2009 in relation to GDP amounted to 0.3 percent – at very strict accounting rules. While U.S. and Swiss banks are in danger to loose a substantially larger part of their equity, the losses of Austrian banks are only 1.1 percent.

In the past, the Austrian financial system was directly involved in Eastern Europe rather than buying questionable financial products. However, since Austrian banks lead in terms of engagement related to GDP, certain potential residual risk remains due the weaknesses of these economies.

Regarding the discussion that have been induced by remarks of Mr Krugman and false IMF statements about Austria´s exposure to CEE risk, one must clearly differentiate between direct exposure of the Austrian state on one hand and indirect loans, that Austrian banking subsidiaries in Eastern European countries have issued and on the other hand the engagement in EU / non EU resp. Eurozone countries.

Besides all the above, one must bear in mind that most important foreign markets of the Austrian manufacturing industry are not in the CEE.

regards,
s.o.

On May 18 07:37 AM Alan Young wrote:

> It seems like only a week or two ago we were being warned that Austria
> was the epicenter of the Eurozone's fiscal woes, because of its huge
> leveraged bets in Eastern Europe. What has changed all of a sudden
> to make it such a good deal?

The FDIC wants to establish a fund to cover the costs of winding down large brokerages, and wants to get the money by charging upfront assessments on financial firms with over $100B in assets.

All of them ?


On May 18 01:54 PM The Aft Deck wrote:

> Wow, why would they want to do that, who else is in trouble? Which
> large brokerages need winding down?

Following in Goldman Sachs's (GS) footsteps, Merrill Lynch muzzles a blogger - our very own Tyler Durden. Here's the take-down letter.

All the best, David

Why dividends matter: Historically, dividends are responsible for about half of the stock market's total return. Yet by 2000, their slice of the pie plunged to just 10%. Meager dividends could significantly delay any full recovery.

I Agree,
Just scroll over it..
The situation is serious enough.


On May 13 09:25 PM You're Kidding wrote:

> Cetin lives for feedback. If he doesn't get any, he'll stop posting.
> You guys keep him alive by giving him attention.

"In 2008, the markets affected the economy. In 2009, we'll see the economy drag down the markets," Meredith Whitney says on CNBC. She chalks up the current rally to massive short covering, following by sidelined money jumping in out of fear of missing the next bull. Someday soon, they're going to get sheared.

congratulations!


On May 11 04:46 PM herbert hoover wrote:

> Nope. I am 100% in cash right now. I cashed out on Thursday. I just
> get tired of the same old tired shit coming out of the same old tired
> mouths.
>
> We DO realize that these guys are not impartial observers, right?
> They all made their plays and want everyone to follow their leads
> to make their positions more lucrative.

The Obama rally has no legs.

thx
nothing to add


On May 11 12:22 PM old boat guy wrote:

> Sorry, you are NOT being critical of his thoughts and ideas, but
> of him.
>
> You know, you need to take your little e-Harmony relatonship somewhere
> else.

UAW: It Should Be Giving Up More

Thank you,

especially for your civiliced wording.

you´ve got a new follower.


On May 10 07:56 PM Alan Young wrote:

> Wow, tough crowd! I agree with the general thesis of the critiques,
> but I don't think they benefit from getting personal.
>
> Here's another angle:
>
> If we were more like other civilized countries, we would have free
> medical care for all citizens, and subsidize medical education. Then
> your hypothetical pediatrician would not have to spend half his career
> paying off his debts, and auto makers would not have to spend 1/3
> of their HR budget on medical programs. That would level the playing
> field to everyone's benefit.

April Sentiment Up - But It Followed the March Rally, Remember

Thank you!

Can somebody back these points with numbers?




On May 02 12:35 PM InvestBaboo wrote:

> Any intelligent person can chose to be a bull or bear given all the
> data we have on hand.
>
> Case and point. Tyler Durden looks at consumer optimism and labels
> it as a lagging indcator and that it followed a rally, etc., etc.
> In other words, not worth reading much into. InvestBaboo would argue
> that consumers see a genuine recovery under way, feel more optimistic
> about the economy and see improved job prospects. There is no way
> optimism could be this high if consumers didn't begin to feel optimistic
> about the job situation. Jobs are #1 first and foremost on everyone's
> mind. The manufacturing index data, the reduced inventory numbers
> point to the first green shoots of hiring and consumers can see this
> from the smoke and the fire and are genuinely encouraged by it.<br/>
>
> Case and point. Tyler Durden would argue that the increased consumption
> number was an ununatural one-time surge from unnaturally low levels.
> InvestBaboo would argue that the 92% people with jobs who started
> spending unnaturally low what with all the fear and doom and gloom
> have started opening up their wallets and spending money they have
> because they are feeling safer about thier jobs than a month before
> and that this spending pattern has just begun and will adjust upwards.
>
>
> Case and point. Tyler Durden would argue that housing has not bottomed,
> it is foreclosure bargain sales that are obfuscating the real problem,
> banks have yet to foreclose on tons more properties and that housing
> is yet to find a bottom. Not so fast says InvestBaboo. If that is
> true increased optimism amongst homebuilders would not be present.
> Toll Brothers CEO sees a big uptick in people coming in with cash,
> making deposits on new homes. New home builders from one end of the
> nation to the other are seeing an uptick in their prospects. Also,
> there is a whole new class of investors now you see who are snapping
> up foreclosed homes in the hopes of making a buck or two. All this
> will put a bottom on the housing prices and turn it around.
>
> Case and point. Tyler Durden would worry about the "unexpected" yet
> to come in the bank stress tests and that banks are not in a position
> to lend which means credit conditions will deterriorate even further
> before turning greenshoots. Not so fast, InvestBaboo would counsel.
> Investors are coming to the realization that these stress tests are
> far tougher than they thought and the govt has been quite objective
> and taken into account hell-in-a-handbasket parameters for the economy.
> If true then the govt is standing by with cash and help for these
> banks to come out of this hell-in-a-handbasket if we were to fall
> into one. All this points to the credit situation continuing to improve
> not deterriorate.
>
> Tyler Durden would see all the improved earnings and prospects from
> the likes of Best Buy, Bed Bath and Beyond, Catepillar, JC Penney
> as flash in the pan while InvestBaboo would put real weight behind
> the numbers and their outlook and state that these companies if anything
> will be extra-cautionary in these super sensitive times and thus
> their optimism perhaps could be far understated and that things could
> be actually much better.
>
> So it is all in how you see things. You can see it as a bull or bear
> and make good arguments. To those who are inclined to be PermaBears
> Tyler Durden and his cousins will make a lot of sense and they sleep
> better at night being happy about the cash they have in their hands
> and the gold they have buried in their backyards and the guns they
> have stocked in their cabinets and the canned food they have stockpiled
> in their pantry. To those that have turned bullish such as InvestBaboo
> they are handsomely profiting from the rally, being careful to protect
> their profits with stop losses, and enjoying the little fortune thrown
> their way after what has been a brutal drought. Also, people such
> as InvestBaboo don't trust their own gut feel or their own analysis
> ability to outguess the market instead they chose to follow the market
> reaping from the trend but always watching out for the bend at the
> end to exit their positions.

Chrysler's Bankruptcy: Historic Changes for Markets?

I agree,

There was nothing better to expect from the beginning.
As my dad used to say: You cant build a castle with a pile of sh*t.

Those who want to believe that anybody involved with Chrysler after Daimler left, would have loved to build great automobiles, may dream on. To me they were ignorant of the car business.

It takes more than cheap money to be competitive.

BTW: The current spouse just recently got back from rehab.



On May 01 05:37 PM I am not a number.. wrote:

> Why didn't anyone bother to see or ask why Daimler AG dumped Chrysler?
> That had to be a corperate coup of the first order and yet knowone
> took on the information that must have been there for all to see.
> Chrysler may have been able to float along for decades but it's glory
> days were in the early 1960's when they were next to Daimler in terms
> of automotive engineering and a reasonable amount of quality. From
> then on it was disaster after another.
> The poison theatened to infect Daimler which saw it's once precious
> asset ,It's reputation for quality.diluted by the need to prop up
> Chrysler like some sort of alcholic spouse . We know the rerst,Daimler,hurting
> but surviving ,Chrysler dying from within and suddenly it finds yet
> another bunch of suckers ready to buy it a drink...let it die before
> it drags America down with it.
>

Consumer Spending vs. Consumer Savings

Regarding the future development of the savings rate all has been said:

"The longer-term outlook; which includes further financial strains, a possible bottom in the second half, and a very gradual recovery; remains in place."

The question rather is: Is it the cause or its result?

Banks And Consumers Say No to More Debt

Congress is the problem! ???????????
I keep on reading this!
If these congress critics think that they are so much smarter, why don´t they get on their feet and create value for Joe sixpack voter?
I mean we all should stop to look at good politics as something that we are entitled to.
In times like these we are entitled to nothing but to roll up our sleevs, take out the crooks and to stop blaming others. (At least that´s what a is made democracy for).

As long as this is not going to happen exactly nothing will change.

Don't Count on the Consumer for a Recovery

paying back debt = saving