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Greg Porter

Greg Porter
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  • Catalysts Present For Northeast Community Bancorp's 2nd-Step Conversion Offering Attractive Risk-Adjusted Returns [View article]
    Is it really likely that the bank could do a second step transaction now with equity to assets well over 20%? If they completed a 2nd step now, equity to assets would be well over 30%.
    Apr 17 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cambridge Bancorp: This 3.7% Yielder Demands Your Attention! [View article]
    Really nice writeup and a damn fine bank.

    I suspect that part of the reason for the low valuation is that fact that the bank doesn't file with the SEC and stock is traded OTC. I wonder if that might change as the bank continues to grow.
    Apr 17 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pathfinder Bancorp: This Unfolding Special Situation Offers Investors Substantial Upside With Limited Risk [View article]
    Thanks for writing this one up. Looks like a decent little bank.

    You assumed that the bank will sell the second step shares at book value. What are you basing that on? Almost all of the recent second step transactions, including Prudential, Charter, and Northfield, as well as a couple of other small banks currently in the conversion process, all valued the second step shares at a big discount to book. The only one I am aware of that has valued their shares near book value is Investors Bancorp, which is a much bigger, much more profitable bank.
    Apr 14 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below Tangible Book, You Can Bank On Ambitious HomeTrust Bancshares [View article]
    Thanks for writing this one up. It has been some time since I looked at it closely, and with the stock buybacks and acquisitions, things are clearly changing. A couple of questions for you.

    1. The ROA improvement this year appears to be solely due to reversing loan loss provisions. HTBI's efficiency ratio is still below average for a bank of its size. Have you modeled out what their cost structure/efficiency ratio might look like after the acquisitions?

    2. When I last looked at HTBI, their loan quality was below average. How comfortable are you with HTBI's lending skills? How much of their loan issues were from acquired loan books versus their own lending?
    Mar 19 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    I read the transcript. A lot of optimism. They clearly expect Q1 to be terrible, but for revenues to improve after that and for revenues to grow in 2014 compared to 2013. They did not talk much about margins, which are the real key. If margin return to the level they saw in 2012, then NES is undervalued today. If, on the other hand, margins look like they did in the later part of 2013, NES is going to struggle. I am short the stock, so you know which I think is more likely. Good luck to you.
    Mar 17 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    The TFI sales price was higher than expected, but it seems to be far from a done deal. The deal is subject to a financing condition. It does not appear that VeroLube, the buyer, has much in the way to operations currently. Credit is pretty freely available, but with TFI losing money and VeroLube having little existing operations, this might not be that easy to finance.

    Tasty, where did you see optimistic guidance? Did you listen to the conference call? I didn't see anything in the press release other than a generic statement that they are optimistic, and nothing that would suggest that they expect to be profitable in 2014. Still going through the numbers, but it looks like they burned through about $15 million of cash in Q4, excluding TFI.
    Mar 10 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lakeland Financial: Why This Boring Indiana Bank Is Beating Other Regionals [View article]
    Nice find and a nice writeup. The current price is more than I am willing to pay, but I will add to my watch list.
    Mar 5 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Federal Bancorp: Low-Risk Investment With Potential 30% To 48% Annualized Return [View article]
    I suspect that the spread is so wide because the cost to borrow CACB shares is so high
    Feb 20 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    ECapo, KEG is relevant because it is a direct competitor of NES. KEG has reported Q4 results and NES has not, so by looking at KEG's results, it may be possible to get an early idea of how NES did in Q4. In addition, since KEG and NES supply what are essentially commodity type services, KEG's view on it future operating margins are also relevant. It isn't likely that NES will be able to generate operating margins significantly higher than its competitors.

    The real key for NES going forward, particularly since it is in the process of selling TFI, is the operating margin of its Power Fuels segment. In 2012, Power Fuels was generating operating margins over 30%. By late 2013, its operating margin had dropped to under 10%. The real question is whether the future looks more like 2012, or more like late 2013.
    Feb 18 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    KEG fluids division Q4 revenue was down 15% YoY, but that was an improvement from earlier in the year. Revenues for the full year were down about 25%. They don't break out operating profits for the fluids division, but overall US operating margins were down 350bp, which is better than I would expected.
    Feb 14 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    Very nice writeup.

    The thing that immediately struck me was that was that there was no profit in selling solar systems. SCTY's gross profit on selling the systems was only 5% in Q3, and their operating profits are almost certainly negative.

    The big question is whether by leasing the solar systems instead of selling them and with a lot of financial engineering, you can transform a profitless business into a highly valuable one.

    Between the various government incentives and the various financial vehicles designed to monetize the future payment streams, following the accounting is challenging. Have you put together a model that analyses the economics/cash flow of an individual solar system lease?
    Feb 12 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selective Insurance Is Still A Good Holding After Recent 20% Pullback [View article]
    You didn't really discuss what you think SIGI is worth. Based on a pretty cursory look, It appears to me that SIGI can generate ROEs in the high single digits in low cat years, and low to mid single digit ROEs in higher cat years. SIGI has grown over the last 5 years but only modestly. It appears to me that SIGI generates average to a little below average returns, and deserves an average to a little below average valuation. As it already trades above book value, it seems to me to be pretty fully valued, if not a little expensive. What am I missing?
    Feb 12 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    goldendog, you are right. I will amend my prior comment. If you take net cash provided by operating activities and subtract cap ex, NES did indeed generate a positive 40MM in the first 9 months of 2013. However, almost all of the 40MM was working capital changes which either reverse by year end (the accrued interest which gets paid in Q4) or is not likely repeatable (stretching out payables). I can see why a short term creditor might include w/c changes when calculating FCF, but when evaluating the equity, I exclude them. Excluding working capital changes, NES was cash flow negative even before considering cap ex, and almost certainly was in Q4 as well.

    It is also relevant to note that the TTM period represents the only period in NES's history that it has produced cash flow of any sort, and that was only due to the acquisitions of TFI and Power Fuels. Now of course they are selling TFI and Power Fuels results rapidly deteriorated throughout 2013.
    Feb 7 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: Lowering 2014 Target Price To $0 [View article]
    If NES generates FCF of $50MM in 2013, then NES is tremendously cheap. Just one problem, NES has never generated $50MM of FCF in a year before. I am not sure NES has generated $50MM of FCF in its history.
    Feb 6 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The First Trust Intermediate Duration CEF Offers 8.7% Yield, Total Return Potential Of 19%, And Minimal Rate Risk [View article]
    Very nice writeup.

    The thought of credit exposure to European financials makes me a bit queasy. How does FPF compare to JPI, which at first glance seemed to be a similarly structured CEF trading at a discount to NAV, but with less European exposure?
    Feb 6 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment