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Alan R. Goozner During the 1994 Peso crisis, I started an e-mail newsletter. This followed from my comments to Mexican interest groups and list servers on the rapidly expanding Internet. The newsletter became a copyright publication : "The Mexican Commentary." This had a limited paid... More
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  • Current Prospects For Gruma (GMK)

    It's been a little over 5 years now since my last public comment for Gruma on Seeking Alpha under my pseudonym Mexcom. Gruma is probably the largest company in the world making tortillas and corn flour. My luck with the stock (symbol GMK for the American Depository Receipts traded on the NYSE) shows one trade that I still hold in my cash account for 150 shares at $8.81 on 6/7/2012. As I type this comment, the stock is trading at $51.11 - $42.30 increase - 480%. But, will this fabulous investment increase continue? What are the things to watch?

    This company had been the investment darling of many mutual funds back 20 years ago as a stable food company in Mexico that paid a good dividend. I followed it closely back at that time when I wrote the Mexican Commentary - a weekly newsletter distributed to over 100 paid subscribers. One subscriber was the INS in the Department of Justice that used the information in their intelligence analysis of illegal immigration. I covered the exchange rate trends of the peso, employment rates, inflation and the other major economic indicators for the Mexican economy. This lead the INS to employ me fulltime. I continue to hold a position in Gruma with over 1,000 shares in my personal accounts.

    Schwab brokerage has their stock rating for the company as "A." S&P has a report and The Economist has a BBB rating for Mexico. Anyone considering this for investment should review these reports.

    Gruma had a great relationship with Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) for their corn supply. ADM owned a major portion of the company but below the 50% threshold allowed for an expatriate of Mexico. Market hedging on corn prices and the peso versus the dollar got them into trouble about at the time of our financial crisis - the fear was bankruptcy. Since then, Gruma took over the ADM position, they increased their leverage to do so, but still have a relationship in the grain market with them.

    My current speculative interest in the company comes from my interest in this year's corn crop that is currently being planted. I haven't seen the April intended planting report for USDA. The June Acreage report for US crop prospects would make intentions firm. The snow cover this winter and current rain accumulations make me believe that US grain production could be at a record high with possible record yields for corn. This would lower the major input costs for this company and their profits could be a record breaker for 2015.

    My exposure to this company is very small. My comment here is not a recommendation for anyone to buy this stock. The available information on this company is not as good as for a typical US company. However, if anyone reading this has an opinion or information to share - It would be greatly appreciated.

    Apr 24 11:27 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Hi-Yield Selling Climax

    Monday saw a second leg of a selling climax over increasing interest rate worry. The economic indicators continue weak. Inflation is very low. Oil prices - the last time we had an inflated price are much lower and continue to decline - gold and silver positions are being liquidated. The Federal Reserve would never increase interest rates in this type of environment. Consumer confidence is waning and employment statistics are not indicating the desired level of growth. To me this is a grand opportunity to buy hi-yield investments. During yesterday's decline, utilities, mortgage REITs and hi-yield bond funds increased. I added to my DHF position at $3.70 and expect it to rise into the $3.80's before the end of the month. My portfolio showed nothing close to the loss experienced in yesterdays stock averages. For several hours during the day I was showing a gain for all my portfolios and they closed with less than 1/10th of one percent. DHF is yielding 9.35% tax free in my IRA account.

    Tags: DHF, Hi Yield
    Oct 02 9:29 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Cross Matrix Screening For Gold (Value)

    Many investors who like to "find" their own stock to invest in use stock screens. Some are available on the internet financial sites. One of my favorites is on Yahoo. Another I have respect for are recommendation lists provided by Schwab brokerage.

    Not being a trader and being more conservative to approach, I have become very disappointed in the performance of my fixed income securities. To reinvest the proceeds from called preferred stocks and bond maturities into similar investments I can't match anywhere near the yields they have provided in the past. This has required me to change my approach to shift portfolio weighting more toward common stocks.

    Looking at index performance, the traditionally riskier stocks are the smaller capital companies. I looked at the Russell 2000 Index and saw how it has been performing compared to most other stock indices. I downloaded all 2000 stocks into a spreadsheet. That alone was a time consuming task but to then analyze each company to make an investment decision would be daunting.

    I used Yahoo to narrow down the list.

    http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/stocks.html

    The Yahoo screener has the S&P 600 as a criteria that overlaps almost all of the Russell 2000 and to my more conservative orientation I added a low beta range of .5 - 1.5 and that there must be a dividend. This screen was sorted against the Russell 2000 list and those not matching discarded. Finally I downloaded the Schwab recommendation list selecting only those that were rated A or B.

    To match against my Yahoo screen, I used a cross matrix of Schwab list symbols in the top line with the Yahoo screen symbols ad associated data for beta, P/E, dividend yield, and market cap. The matrix is comprised of "IF" statements with a "1" result for a match. I then coded the positive match codes with into the Schwab list with other data for my final list.

     

    Yahoo link

    Company

    Schwab

    Market Cap:

    P/E (NYSE:TTM):

    EPS :

    Div & Yield:

    COKE

    COKE

    Coca-Cola Bottling Co. Consolid

    A

    626.16M

    23.28

    2.91

    1.00 (1.50%

    FDEF

    FDEF

    First Defiance Financial Corp.

    A

    170.01M

    12.49

    1.4

    0.20 (1.10%)

    FIBK

    FIBK

    First Interstate BancSystem, In

    A

    664.85M

    14.02

    1.1

    0.48 (3.10%)

    SAFT

    SAFT

    Safety Insurance Group, Inc.

    B

    695.35M

    14.51

    3.13

    2.40 (5.20%)

    QUAD

    QUAD

    Quad Graphics, Inc Class A Comm

    B

    802.46M

    N/A

    -0.07

    1.00 (5.60%

    ELRC

    ELRC

    Electro Rent Corporation

    B

    431.43M

    16.8

    1.07

    0.80 (4.50%)

    UVSP

    UVSP

    Univest Corporation of Pennsylv

    B

    304.01M

    14.8

    1.23

    0.80 (4.50%)

    DEST

    DEST

    Destination Maternity Corporati

    B

    253.25M

    14.89

    1.27

    0.70 (3.70%)

    CTBI

    CTBI

    Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.

    B

    558.55M

    12.47

    2.9

    1.26 (3.50%)

    CWCO

    CWCO

    Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.

    B

    122.47M

    19.09

    0.44

    0.30 (3.60%)

    ECOL

    ECOL

    US Ecology, Inc.

    B

    379.82M

    17.79

    1.17

    0.72 (3.40%

    MHLD

    MHLD

    Maiden Holdings, Ltd.

    B

    651.79M

    9.6

    0.94

    0.32 (3.50%)

    RNST

    RNST

    Renasant Corporation

    B

    483.43M

    19.64

    0.98

    0.68 (3.60%)

    WASH

    WASH

    Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc.

    B

    438.36M

    13.53

    1.98

    0.96 (3.60%)

    CHFC

    CHFC

    Chemical Financial Corporation

    B

    669.00M

    13.67

    1.78

    0.84 (3.40%

    WSBC

    WSBC

    WesBanco, Inc.

    B

    560.21M

    12.26

    1.71

    0.72 (3.40%)

    OCFC

    OCFC

    OceanFirst Financial Corp.

    B

    262.95M

    12.35

    1.19

    0.48 (3.30%)

    NKSH

    NKSH

    National Bankshares, Inc.

    B

    248.55M

    13.72

    2.61

    1.06 (3.10%)

    SRCE

    SRCE

    1st Source Corporation

    B

    543.78M

    11.73

    1.91

    0.68 (3.00%

    CVBF

    CVBF

    CVB Financial Corporation

    B

    1.26B

    14.03

    0.86

    0.34 (2.80%

    FCBC

    FCBC

    First Community Bancshares, Inc

    B

    311.32M

    16.17

    0.96

    0.44 (2.80%)

    BANF

    BANF

    BancFirst Corporation

    B

    659.66M

    13.47

    3.23

    1.16 (2.70%)

    EPIQ

    EPIQ

    EPIQ Systems, Inc.

    B

    478.18M

    36.77

    0.36

    0.36 (2.70%)

    PCBK

    PCBK

    Pacific Continental Corporation

    B

    162.15M

    21.98

    0.41

    0.24 (2.70%

    STSA

    STSA

    Sterling Financial Corporation

    B

    1.39B

    3.88

    5.77

    0.60 (2.70%)

    ALTE

    ALTE

    Alterra Capital Holdings Limite

    B

    2.34B

    10.76

    2.26

    0.64 (2.60%)

    EBTC

    EBTC

    Enterprise Bancorp Inc

    B

    161.77M

    13.58

    1.24

    0.44 (2.60%

    UBSH

    UBSH

    Union First Market Bankshares C

    B

    404.85M

    12.59

    1.24

    0.40 (2.60%)

    WBCO

    WBCO

    Washington Banking Company

    B

    223.83M

    14.39

    1.01

    0.36 (2.50%

    ESIO

    ESIO

    Electro Scientific Industries,

    B

    363.46M

    N/A

    -0.07

    0.32 (2.50%

    BKYF

    BKYF

    The Bank of Kentucky Financial

    B

    201.56M

    11.49

    2.35

    0.64 (2.40%

    CBRL

    CBRL

    Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor

    B

    1.57B

    15.18

    4.4

    2.00 (3.00%

    DAKT

    DAKT

    Daktronics, Inc.

    B

    399.26M

    33.93

    0.28

    0.23 (2.40%)

    ATNI

    ATNI

    Atlantic Tele-Network, Inc.

    B

    669.67M

    18.98

    2.27

    1.00 (2.30%)

    CRDN

    CRDN

    Ceradyne, Inc.

    B

    593.38M

    11.56

    2.12

    0.60 (2.40%)

    GSBC

    GSBC

    Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.

    B

    419.89M

    9.3

    3.33

    0.72 (2.30%)

    MTSC

    MTSC

    MTS Systems Corporation

    B

    845.75M

    16.37

    3.21

    1.20 (2.30%)

    NRCI

    NRCI

    National Research Corporation

    B

    344.91M

    25.84

    1.96

    1.04 (2.10%)

    BSRR

    BSRR

    Sierra Bancorp

    B

    175.58M

    20.58

    0.61

    0.24 (1.90%)

    RELL

    RELL

    Richardson Electronics, Ltd.

    B

    189.67M

    28.49

    0.43

    0.24 (2.00%)

    CECE

    CECE

    CECO Environmental Corp.

    B

    139.91M

    16.53

    0.58

    0.18 (1.80%)

    COLB

    COLB

    Columbia Banking System, Inc.

    B

    705.51M

    12.94

    1.37

    0.36 (1.90%)

    PEBO

    PEBO

    Peoples Bancorp Inc.

    B

    248.91M

    13.02

    1.79

    0.44 (1.90%)

    STEI

    STEI

    Stewart Enterprises, Inc.

    B

    704.41M

    20.68

    0.4

    0.16 (1.90%)

    BMRC

    BMRC

    Bank of Marin Bancorp

    B

    225.93M

    13.1

    3.23

    0.72 (1.70%)

    EIHI

    EIHI

    Eastern Insurance Holdings, Inc

    B

    125.83M

    16.3

    1.03

    0.28 (1.70%)

    RCII

    RCII

    Rent-A-Center Inc.

    B

    2.09B

    11.97

    2.95

    0.64 (1.80%)

    EFSC

    EFSC

    Enterprise Financial Services C

    B

    242.73M

    9.71

    1.4

    0.21 (1.50%)

    HTLF

    HTLF

    Heartland Financial USA, Inc.

    B

    465.21M

    14.08

    2

    0.40 (1.40%

    SCHL

    SCHL

    Scholastic Corporation

    B

    1.02B

    10.65

    3.03

    0.50 (1.50%

    SKYW

    SKYW

    SkyWest, Inc.

    B

    540.72M

    N/A

    -0.33

    0.16 (2.20%

    USPH

    USPH

    U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. Com

    B

    332.05M

    15.45

    1.82

    0.36 (1.30%)

    HBOS

    HBOS

    Heritage Financial Group

    B

    108.96M

    20.27

    0.67

    0.16 (1.20%

    CFNL

    CFNL

    Cardinal Financial Corporation

    B

    418.62M

    12.34

    1.16

    0.16 (1.10%)

    COBZ

    COBZ

    CoBiz Financial Inc.

    B

    274.65M

    8.26

    0.85

    0.08 (1.10%)

    JJSF

    JJSF

    J & J Snack Foods Corp.

    B

    1.08B

    21.39

    2.68

    0.52 (0.90%

    ENSG

    ENSG

    The Ensign Group, Inc.

    B

    643.40M

    13.75

    2.18

    0.24 (0.80%)

    FRME

    FRME

    First Merchants Corporation

    B

    436.05M

    20.11

    0.76

    0.12 (0.80%)

    ISCA

    ISCA

    International Speedway Corporat

    B

    1.32B

    19.98

    1.43

    0.20 (0.70%)

    ALCO

    ALCO

    Alico, Inc.

    B

    231.69M

    13.3

    2.37

    0.16 (0.50%)

    ALOG

    ALOG

    Analogic Corporation

    B

    963.51M

    23.08

    3.42

    0.40 (0.50%)

    BFIN

    BFIN

    BankFinancial Corporation

    B

    178.14M

    N/A

    -2.31

    0.04 (0.40%)

    CSFL

    CSFL

    CenterState Banks, Inc.

    B

    264.62M

    15.74

    0.56

    0.04 (0.50%)

    SYNT

    SYNT

    Syntel, Inc.

    B

    2.59B

    16.79

    3.69

    0.24 (0.40%

    FICO

    FICO

    Fair, Isaac, Incorporated Commo

    B

    1.51B

    17.21

    2.59

    0.08 (0.20%

    Thus far I have made pilot purchases of the following: CRDN, MHLD (I chose to buy their preferred) and FIBK. I was pleased to see that CRDN is to be bought out by MMM this not known when I made the purchase. Could there be other undervalued companies in this list can be a buyout target?

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    Disclosure: I am long CRDN, FIBK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Oct 02 11:13 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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  • MSB No apparent selling pressure this morning. My today's trade at a profit. Expect further increase. Could accelerate. $MSB
    3 days ago
  • Apr 1 at 12.11, shares recovered to $15.80 on Apr 10, 30%. If current recov only half as good, from $10.40, could reach $11.96. $MSB
    Jul 23, 2015
  • MSB - Upside down fish hook pattern on the chart. On breakout would regain the 11 handle. $MSB $CLF
    Jul 22, 2015
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