Seeking Alpha

MexCom's  Instablog

Send Message
Alan R. Goozner During the 1994 Peso crisis, I started an e-mail newsletter. This followed from my comments to Mexican interest groups and list servers on the rapidly expanding Internet. The newsletter became a copyright publication : "The Mexican Commentary." This had a limited paid... More
My blog:
View MexCom's Instablogs on:
  • Record Snows Portends Record High Grain Crop Yields
    Most of the news on the recent snowfall is centered on the East Coast but the Mid-West is getting their share.  These high amounts of snow will boost soil moisture guaranteeing a record high yielding crop for most of the corn belt and some Eastern states too.  Ohio New York and Pennsylvania have significant acreages that will greatly benefit to boost the 2010 corn crop to be the highest ever on record.

    Farmers would do well to hedge their crop with the current up-tic on price.  Come harvest time this fall, corn could go below $1 a bushel coming out of the field.

    Investors can benefit from the corn glut by buying companies involved with milling, marketing and transport of the commodity.  Archibald Midland (NYSE:ADM) and Corn Products (CPO) instantly come tom mind but my best play is the Mexican miller - Gruma (GMK.)  

    Disclosure: Long GMK
    Tags: ADM, INGR, GMK, Corn
    Feb 11 3:04 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Update on Gruma - GMK
    The sharp rise in the stock today on heavy volume comes from the Mexican Bolsa adding Gruma to the IPC index.  This is the most popular index that tracks the Mexican stock market.  As such this is a very favorable development for Gruma.

    Gruma continues to be a fairly small capitalization on the Mexican market compared to the giants such as Tel Mex.  Nonetheless,  any Mexican mutual fund that would measure its performance against the IPC would be at a disadvantage if one of the components such as Gruma were to advance sharply and not be included in that fund's portfolio.

    I believe that the immediate increased demand for the stock as reflected in the price rise is just the start of accumulation.  I expect some further immediate advance in the price for a possible 20% maximum move.  With at least an additional 15% more to go on the upside near term my target is $9.80 for the ADRs traded on the NYSE.  This should be achievable before the end of the Q1 2010.

    On the negative side, if the Venezuelan situation continues to weigh, it would muffle this expectation.  If the Venezuela removes its current control over operations as announced I would add an additional 20% to the move for a peak potential of $11.80.

    Max potential if a dividend is declared by 2012 would be well into the mid-teens.

    The IPC Index is to be congratulated for including Gruma in the index and expressing confidence in this company and its significance to the Mexican market.


    Disclosure: I am long GMK in all my investment accounts and continue to buy on a cost average up strategy.
    Jan 07 7:50 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • GMK - Gruma Worry Over Venezuelan Nationalization
    WSJ Story on the Venezuelan "take over" could continue to do damage near term. Even with a complete Nationalization it only comprises 20% of the business. Worry could drive it down sharply however - more than 20% from its December peak.

    Facts do not support Nationalization - the culprit in the matter is a minority partner/holder. They need the continuation of corn meal production. If the minority holder is squeezed out, the company may come out of it with a larger stake.

    Near term results should not be impacted - profits should continue to flow to the bottom line.

    A further 9-10% drop in the stock price would discount complete Nationalization. Any good news could infer that business would continue as usual and would pressure the short sellers to pop the ADRs up by more than $1.

    I look for further immediate decline and a slower rebound to follow if not immediately, some time soon into the New Year unless good news comes to pop it back up faster.

    I hold GMK ADRs in all of my investment accounts and continue to view it as an excellent way to participate in North America's fastest growing economy.  I have been a recent purchaser of shares in a cost average up strategy

    Disclosure: I am long GMK
    Dec 29 9:06 AM | Link | 1 Comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • Recent property sale indicates that real estate portfolio on the balance sheet is terribly undervalued. $VGR
    about 19 hours ago
  • MSB No apparent selling pressure this morning. My today's trade at a profit. Expect further increase. Could accelerate. $MSB
    Jul 27, 2015
  • Apr 1 at 12.11, shares recovered to $15.80 on Apr 10, 30%. If current recov only half as good, from $10.40, could reach $11.96. $MSB
    Jul 23, 2015
More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.