Seeking Alpha

Expat in Tokyo

Expat in Tokyo
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Expat in Tokyo's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • General Motors: 3.6% Yield And 40%+ Upside Potential [View article]
    Nafar,

    please explain your preferred shares comment. Did GM buy back all their preferreds?

    Thanks!

    Expat
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger: Eurasia Drilling Transaction Could Represent A Good Value Amid Industry Turmoil [View article]
    I sold SLB last week before this announcement to buy it back lower this year. I am taking it off my watch list now because of this purchase. As Russians continue to kill Ukrainians I don't like western companies buying Russian companies. Plenty of other great oil filed companies to buy without working with the devil.

    Expat
    Jan 22, 2015. 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Phase Of The Oil Bear Market Are We In? [View article]
    511,

    Yes, I believe all these blue chip integrated oil companies (XOM, CVX, BP and even COP) will be great long term holdings that we retirees can eat the dividends. I believe they will continue to fall until oil stabilizes. And then I plan to double my energy investments. I never hit the bottom exactly - I am usually too early, but I do okay. The exact bottom is not a requirement to be successful.

    Good luck!

    Expat
    Jan 19, 2015. 12:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Defense On The Field [View article]
    LB,

    very good reasoning that parallels my own pretty close!

    Thanks!


    Expat
    Jan 17, 2015. 01:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Phase Of The Oil Bear Market Are We In? [View article]
    Wells already producing do not get shut in until the oil is below the company's operating costs for those wells. The companies need the cash. New wells do not get drilled and eventually with the producing well's depletions supply-demand balance is restored. This will take another 6 months minimum unless OPEC cuts back. Long term the balance will be restored in a year or two and prices will rise and then another fall as it always does.

    I am guessing we are not half way there yet. But who knows?

    Planning on doubling my energy allocation when things stabilize.

    Expat
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia On Fire Sale: Gazprom At 20 Cents On The Dollar [View article]
    What about the refinance risk of Dollar and Euro denominated bonds.

    Gazprom can no longer get western credit. How is it going to refinance its bonds? Perhaps a slow down in capital spending - less gas in the future? Or sell more shares to the government? Neither a good scenario for current investors.

    I think investors have this one priced right on the mark.

    Expat
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: Why I'll Ignore The JPY [View article]
    Wow! Where to begin.

    Just like we buy stocks for what they will do in the future - looking at the past yen-USD exchange rates tells one nothing about the future. The YEN could go to 300 to the dollar.

    With the high Japanese government debt I think the Yen may not appreciate until their population stops decreasing in 2050. Abenomics is a very big experiment - don't risk your capital on an experiment!

    If the dividend coverage is near 100% with the US cash flow - where is the dividend growth going to come from, if not Japan! US growth rates have not been stellar. Each year AFL will need to repatriate more and more Yen. And as the Yen continues to slide the dividend growth rates will also.

    With that said I still think the YEN will be a slow decline and investors will slowly see they need to sell.

    AFL is great company doing 75% of their business in a lousy market.

    I sold AFL a few months ago, but hope the best to all the longs.

    Expat
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning My Income Portfolio For 2015 [View article]
    Bargain Hunter,

    Aren't CVR and NTI variable rate MLPs? That change their payouts each quarter depending on their profits. Therefore the dividend you quote was for last quarter and unlikely to be the same for the future.

    Expat
    Long NTI
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum's Drastic Price Drop Provides Potential Opportunity To Play A Natural Gas Rebound [View article]
    The company leverage needs to be addressed in all articles for E&Ps to determine the current risks especially with low O&G prices.

    A nice chart showing oil and gas price scales with projected production to get cash flows to pay the debt would be nice. It takes hours for me to figure it out on the 10Qs to see who is risky and who is not.

    Thanks for the article.

    Expat.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unstated Case For Long-Term Low Oil Prices (Part I) [View article]
    Good Article!

    I worked in the oil patch in college in the late 70's until 81. One well in Evanston Wyoming was a directional well that did a dog leg to get under the Catholic cemetery. Yes, we did directional drilling in 1980 - what is the big deal!

    It was some old iron - compound triples - I worked on with very little electronics and sensors - kinda the opposite of today. Especially for a college boy getting a electrical engineering degree.

    This transformation of the tools from mechanical to electronic/sensor for O&G extraction provides more accurate data make the industry more precise in its' decisions - thus reducing the the cost of the extraction. I agree engineers in the industry will develop the tools as the demand requires! Always have and always will - that is why America leads the world in O&G technologies. This technical capability cannot be underestimated and is a tremendous advantage to American oil companies to continue to drive the marginal cost of O&G extraction lower.

    Looking forward to the remaining articles.

    Expat
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Defense Cutbacks Hurt The Housing Market [View article]
    You are an clearly uniformed with comments like these. You are trying to blame the military for our politicians errors.
    Oct 28, 2014. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drowning In Oil Again [View article]
    SA government needing over $100 a barrel to be solvent! Rubbish! Average shale oil all-in cost to produce - $60-$80. Once oil drops below cost to produce less drilling and less oil results in higher prices. Then more drilling again. This happens every time! I expect significant consolidation in smaller E&Ps if oil stays below $80 for even a quarter or 2!

    The investors issue is always the same what companies will remain standing and make us money!

    Thanks!

    Expat
    Oct 15, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The 'Shale Oil Miracle' Be Just A Pipe Dream? [View article]
    A couple of missed points in this article.

    1) You forget the benefits of new technology to improve the recovery of more oilper well than the averages today. 2) E&Ps leave and comeback to oil patches because they see better IRRs in other oil patches not because they are not making money in one they sell their leases on. 3) If shale oil proves unprofitable at $65 less oil will be produced and prices will increase making them profitable again.

    The best part of you argument would have been that there is always boom & bust in the oil patch. Many small E&Ps have over leveraged and can only survive with a high oil price. This has always been true in the oil patch and this shale boom is no different - if you do not believe their is a boom go to Williston, ND for a visit. If oil stays at or below $75 per barrel you will see significant consolidation of smaller E&Ps just to survive. But will the overall shale oil be a negative IRR as you have postulated - no way! Oil is finite resource and the price will recover.

    Yes, some smaller E&Ps are over leveraged and will get hurt with lower oil prices, but the shale oil boom is real. The issue for us investors is to pick the right companies that can be profitable.

    Thanks!

    Expat
    Oct 15, 2014. 12:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Oil Price And Energy Stocks [View article]
    Don't under estimate the new methods and technologies in the oil patch. The shale oil patch is much like solar ever year cost of production in know reservoirs gets better. No one is standing around doing it like we did when I was a roughneck in college!

    Yes, high cost of production E&Ps will suffer as oil drops and may go out of business. But most will still be pumping shale oil out 10 years from now. The shale oil and gas boom is real and yes it will slow down because it is a finite resource, but it will be years from now. Our peak shale oil and gas production might be beyond 2020. Some producers like range resources and COG produce gas for under $2 per thousand cubic feet! And this is what is hurting coal not solar power plants.

    I think we need heterogeneous energy supplies. There is room for all types and I look forward to a world of cheap renewals for my great grandchildren!
    Oct 13, 2014. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Now, Ask Later Provides Opportunity For Sand MLPs [View article]
    Darn,

    you let the secret out of the bag! I am still buying! Even if the marginal E&Ps have to stop drilling the sand use growth will only drop for exponential to very high!

    If you are in the oil patch these are no brainers. I own both and over the long run (from an oil patch perspective) 5 years - I like EMES the best because of the lack of a IDRs because they own their GP.

    Thanks!

    Expat
    Oct 13, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
77 Comments
141 Likes