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Expat in Tokyo

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  • What Special Forces Can Teach Us About Investing [View article]
    Unconventional thinking is key!

    De Oppresso Liber

    Mar 19, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne: An Example Of Why Management Strategies Are Important For Investors [View article]

    Very good article!

    I am waiting - hoping another low occurs before purchasing again.


    Mar 17, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Ford And GM Compare In China [View article]

    what percentage of the JV do GM and Ford own? I think I read SAIC, the GM JV, is 50% owned by GM. Is this accurate? Is the Ford JV the same percentage?

    For each JV the profits are reduced by the percentage of ownership. So if GM only owns 50% of the JV then they really only profited from 50% of the 3.5M cars sold.

    Are the cars sold under the GM and Ford brands?


    Mar 15, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50% Reduction In Distributions Appears More Sustainable [View article]
    Morningstar just updated it natural gas and oil long term forecast - NG $4 and Oil $69 per barrel WTI - $75 for Brent!

    Mar 13, 2015. 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Major Inflection Point Is Coming For Crude Oil... But It's Not Here Yet [View article]
    The oil maybe discounted below market prices and/or the type of oil needed by the refinery. Many refineries need heavy oil and are new shale production is light crude.

    Mar 12, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Enterprise Products Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of 4Q 2014 [View article]

    as usual a great article. I have moved my MLPs to your recommended core MLPs this past year and I am glad I did!

    I wish you would look at and analyze the Sand producer MLPs - EMES and HCLP in particular. There may be others.

    Thanks again!

    Mar 12, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Foreigner Is Drowning The U.S. In Oil Exports - Hint, It's Not OPEC [View article]
    IMO there are a couple reasons exporting US oil will have the overall price rise. I think that the price will be limited to closing the WTI-Brent spread. The reason is that oil is a global commodity and the only reason this price increase would occur is because of the refineries in the US inability to handle all the light shale oil. Many refineries were design for heavy oil and the costs to switch to light shale oil is expensive. If US exports it light crude it could get closer to the cost of Brent. That is the max increase I see.

    Mar 10, 2015. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Smoke A Cigarette In Whitney Tilson's Office [View article]
    CA tests said over the long term the floors with that much formaldehyde is unhealthful - hence the standards - that apparently have been violated. Does not matter if you lick or eat it or not - the standard is the standard.
    The liability to replace all those floors in CA may bankrupt the company. The lawyers are circling! Do you think the lawyers will be able to find anyone in CA that says they were damaged by these floors? They will be crawling out of the wood work!

    Mar 10, 2015. 09:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pick Your Energy MLPs Carefully [View article]
    NTI is a variable rate MLP!

    The payout depends on what they earn for the Q.

    Mar 6, 2015. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Foreigner Is Drowning The U.S. In Oil Exports - Hint, It's Not OPEC [View article]
    Not Canadian oil drillers - tar sands production is where the real growth in Canada is coming from.

    Mar 4, 2015. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Companies Are More Wonderful Than Others [View article]
    I have this same concern with Morningstar's approach. Changes should be few and far between. I do not expect them to forecast the price of oil - but the volatility was well known and should have been incorporated more into the fair value and wide moat ratings.

    2 of my wide moat stocks have been beaten down - NOV lost it's wide moat and CLB's fair value was also substantially reduced. I am still feeling the pain!

    Mar 3, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handling Retirement Savings In A Taxable Account [View article]
    Yes, I worry about a lot of tax changes that could impact my family - I still have 4 teenagers at home - especially now that I am out of the work force.

    But we have to base our decisions on what we know and real numbers - guessing the future is a fool's game.

    Thanks again for a nice article!

    Mar 3, 2015. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Harbinger Of Normalization In Crude Oil Supply And Demand [View article]
    Very good analysis!

    I think one area you did not mention was wells drilled and not put into production. I read that around 700 wells were drilled but not put into production in the Bakken. If this are wells drilled and not into produciton for all 3 basins and assume that these wells are all put into production, then we are another 3-4 months later before the plateau and slow decrease in production. But it is still coming!

    Maybe June or July for the first flat month on month production.


    Mar 2, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handling Retirement Savings In A Taxable Account [View article]
    You are the rare doctor that manages their own money! I have read that doctors loose more money to investments and investment advisors than any other profession!

    I like your approach and before I retired I used a similar strategy for my portfolio. I rolled my 403b(= to 401k) into a IRA and it remains my conservative nest egg - all blue chip dividend stocks. A Roth IRA where I still buy stocks and can go anywhere I find a deal. A taxable account that I live on the dividends and sell stocks to raise funds when I have to. When I hit 59.5 I can start tapping my IRAs.

    You probably make too much for a Roth IRA - but you should investigate the backdoor Roth! There are no income limits for this approach. If you have a Roth 401K, max this vehicle also.

    I am trying to get to 30% of my retirement money into the Roth - moving about 1.5% a year. Having multiple ways to pull money out in retirement is a great way to control one's taxes.

    One last thing - do not do what I did. I own BRK for 17 years now, but reduced my position many times because so much of my portfolio was in BRK. As Charlie Munger said at last years annual meeting - paraphrasing - "young people should not be to early to sell our stock" - let it run and you have it right - it is very conservative in down markets and will come back.

    Thanks and keep up the self investment!

    Mar 2, 2015. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What To Expect From Devon Energy [View article]
    MLPs benefit the controlling company in 3 main ways as I see it:

    1 - Incentive distribution rights (IDRs) - are distributions that go to the general partner (GP) ENLC in this case, when certain thresholds are met. DVN owns a controlling interest in ENLC. ENLC pays dividends to DVN for the shares DVN owns - the income that comes from the IDRs.

    2 - ENLC owns lots of ENLK units - not sure how much, but I think a majority. So ENLC receives the distributions as an owner of the units. ENLC pays dividends to DVN for the shares DVN owns - the income that comes from the ENLC distributions.

    3 - When DVN drops down assets, such as storage or other pipelines, ENLC pays DVN for these assets. So DVN maintains control of theses assets and is paid for them.

    There are other benefits that are less important I feel. Like if DVN needs money it can sell shares of ENLC or units of ENLK - but then it might be limited if it DVN wants to maintain control. Debt can be raised by ENLC or ENLK for growth and it is not on the books of DVN.


    Mar 1, 2015. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment