Microsoft And 4 Other Undervalued Stocks [View article]
Part-Time,
I like your KISS approach. Many of us, if we tell the truth, have been paralyzed by analysis. We often analyze too much data and they rarely all align and we miss many opportunities.
I am not sure I like your actual chosen criteria or the number, but the KISS is elegant -- especially compared to my 30+ item checklist prior to buying a stock!
A Real Dividend Growth Machine: 2012 Review [View article]
Medical costs -- Oh medical costs!!
Here are some costs that I found last year when investigating medical costs.
I am getting ready to retire in July and I will be 56.5 years old. I will not qualify for my company's medical because I am under 58. The company only pays 50% anyhow about $7800 for the plan I must take when I retire and it ends at 65 when medicare kicks in.
I am also a retired Army reservist in the grey area. Which means that I do not get retirement pay or medical benefits until 60 years of age.
Therefore, I need to provide medical and dental insurance for my family of 5 ( I still have 3 young kids) until 60.
Here are my 3 general options I see: 1: pay for company medical via cobra for 18 months @ right under $16K. This is a decent plan.
2: pay for military Tri-Care which I am eligible for, but since I am not eligible for medical benefit until 60 - I have to pay the full cost of the insurance. It is $12K a year for 2012, but going up in Feb. - also decent insurance.
3: purchase medical on the open market. There are a wide variety of plans available at various price points. Here are some that I remember.
High deductible plans - the insurance kicks in after you have spent the deductible;
$5K deductible and $7K cost there is still 20% co-pay after the deductible.
$10K deductible and $3.5K cost there is still 20% co-pay after the deductible.
Regular medical plan with $1000 deductible was around $12-14K
Lots of other options and different deductibles and co-pays. Also the health savings accounts impacts the calculations because the premiums might be pre-tax. With all the Obama care changes things will certainly change if they haven't already!
Bakken Update: Continental Continues To Seek Better Differentials [View article]
Mike,
another good article - thank you!
I keep reading that unconventional oil wells deploy faster than conventional wells in other articles. This is never backed up with any evidence. Is there any factual data to back these statements up that you or anyone know of?
Why Exxon Mobil Should Support Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
Most miles driven by the average American is the commute to and from work, soccer game, store, etc. A five gallon tank for CNG would suffice for most folks to replace 70-90% of the gasoline consumption if they filled up in their garage at night.
Some CNG conversion kits include dual fuel capability both CNG and gasoline when you run out of CNG, just flip a switch to start using gasoline. I am not sure what the cost of running the compressor station is per gallon but that certainly adds to the cost. Still very very cheap compared to gasoline. Last year I priced kits for my F-150 and cost for the conversion kit was about $2K with a 5 gallon tank and the Phil compressor was about $4,000. All this to get fuel at $2 a gallon back then. Unfortunately the Ford 6 cylinder engine I have does not have a conversion kit yet.
Being an old oilfield hand working my way through college ( I actually worked on a couple Exxon wells near Big Piney WY), I know there are very good salaries for the blue color working man in the oil patch - something we seem to need now in America.
I disagree with the author that XOM role should be to build the CNG infrastructure. There has to be a market before I want one of my companies to invest big. I believe it will come, but it isn't there yet. Not enough consumer vehicles have conversion kits and the Phil was the only at home compressor I found. More competition in both of these areas is needed before the transition crosses the chasm to the main stream.
Sell Exxon Now: Too Much Uncertainty Exists In Iraq [View article]
Lots of discussion -- but no data on the importance of Iraq to XOM.
How much production does it get from Iraq today? What % overall?
How much is anticipated?
How much capital is XOM investing in Iraq?
I am betting much less than 3% of production! If Iraq explodes - little impact to XOM.
If Iran explodes and tries to block the Persian Gulf. It will only be temporary (because we will kick their asses up and down the gulf) and again little impact to XOM.
Foreclosure, Principal, And The Housing Market [View article]
Why not pass a law that allows underwater homeowners to refinance with the government guaranteeing the difference of the value and the mortgage. The government portion would be non recourse.
This would allow people who can pay to enjoy lower interest rate mortgage.
I think the loss the government would end up with will be low and a possible net gain without forgiving debt or giving more funds to banks!
A Response To Whitney Tilson's Netflix Flip-Flop [View article]
Sarcasm and snide remarks do detract from your article. I will stick with Tilson, because his credibility remains unquestioned, and his long term track record speaks for itself!
If all hedge and former hedge fund managers were so open with their investment thesis - what a better world this would be.
I have no interest in NFLX now - too many uncertainties for my money. I made money and got out of NFLX 2 years ago - a little early I guess!
Yes, You Can Retire: One Investor's Contrarian Perspective [View article]
Good sound advice for many of us. I also started on this path many years ago and will retire next summer. The Motley Fool site and "Your Money or Your Life" book were key in turning me into deciding to manage our own money. Infact I liked the book so much I bought one for each of my 5 siblings, but I will be the first to retire although I am the 4th one born. I wish they would follow your advice and the books. I will get the"Die Broke" book you mentioned and read it - we have to keep learning because we boomers may have 30-40 years of retirement ahead of us. Thanks for the good article!
The Challenges of Using Beta to Measure Risk [View article]
Good article!
I wish you had written this 6 months ago because it would have saved me a lot of time. I had to learn most of this by picking up text books and scanning the web. This article lays it out clearly and I did not realize the swings in beta were so large.
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
Cullen,
don't attack the few politician's with courage to propose something!
Everyone else is just shooting the BS! Your article is exactly why politicians are cowards - they don't like being attacked - so they never put anything in writing - just more BS talk.
The Important Factors to Consider When Investing in Iron Ore [View article]
James,
thanks for a good article. What about the major's costs - don't they really control the price since their produciton is such a large percentage of the total world output?
How about Fortesque Minerals Group? It is now becoming a major player with low production costs and with other major production increases from the the other 2 big majors in Australia will the price of Fe flatline?
If China slows down, as it is apparanetly doing, how long can these Fe prices hold up?
Is now a risky time to enter into a Fe miner position?
Companies Issue Warnings on Q1 Earnings, Citing Japan and Middle East [View article]
A little summary from Tokyo from my view. The damage from the quake was primarily in the east part of the Tohoku region - to the northeast of Tokyo on the main island of Honshu. I think the earthquake will have little impact on supply chain - in a few more weeks most of the major earthquake damage will be worked around.
The killer tsunami damage is primarily limited to the 5 provinces on the coast east of Tokyo and North - Chiba, Ibaraki, Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate. Damage is along the coast. I do not think too many factories were impacted - the only major city is Sendai (of 1 million) and the tsunami only did damage in the suburbs by the ocean and the airport about 15 KM from the city center. Supply chain impact limited from Tsunami damage and only mediam size port was Sendai. The other ports destroyed were mostly small.
Major impacts from the nuclear power plant issues caused by earthquake and tsunami. We in the Tokyo Electric Power company area have lost 25% of our generating capacity - 10 nuclear power generators. 1 out of ever 4 Japanese are provided electricity by TEPCO. So company production schedules are disrupted. We are on rolling blackouts outside the key Tokyo business areas (center parts of the city). This is the main problem impacting the supply chain. Production is impacted by the rolling blackouts. We have overcome the fuel shortages (some refineries got knocked offline) and more power is slowly coming on line. By the end of April they expect the blackouts to end.
The major supply chain impacts are from the lack of power. Although some key plants were damged in the earthquake and even less in the tsunami - not enough of them to have a significant impact from what I have read. Power is the problem - track power availabilitiy to see when the supply chain bottle necks end!
Former Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Merrill McPeak disagrees with much of the chatter regarding the no-fly zone. "I can’t imagine an easier military problem ... just flying a few jets across the top of the friendlies would probably be enough to ground the Libyan Air Force." [View news story]
I think Gen McPeak is right - this would be a low risk operation. We have many resources that could get rid of Gaddafi, or just destroy his armor and artillery. I do not think Obama will do anything or use any military power.
He might not understand that he could infiltrate some of our and/or other country's special forces to train/lead the rebels and a reasonable amount of additional weapons to remove Gaddafi. The teams leave immediately once the rebels are capable and we have no occupation duty - all with plausible deniability.
Is removing a mass murderer to save innocent lives worth a little criticism from unfriendly countries?
This may be the defining moment of the next election. I think that if he does nothing in Libya he reduces his chances for reelection. No leadership->higher oil->lower consumer sentiment-> slower economy->less jobs->new president.
We Americans and the rest of the world (including Libyans) need real leadership in the White House and unfortunately we do not have it.
How One Retiree Is Muddling Through Dividend Investing: Part I [View article]
you are already in the top 5% of retirees! You escaped from the financial adviser's grip!
Expat!
Microsoft And 4 Other Undervalued Stocks [View article]
I like your KISS approach. Many of us, if we tell the truth, have been paralyzed by analysis. We often analyze too much data and they rarely all align and we miss many opportunities.
I am not sure I like your actual chosen criteria or the number, but the KISS is elegant -- especially compared to my 30+ item checklist prior to buying a stock!
Thanks for the article!
Expat
A Real Dividend Growth Machine: 2012 Review [View article]
Here are some costs that I found last year when investigating medical costs.
I am getting ready to retire in July and I will be 56.5 years old. I will not qualify for my company's medical because I am under 58. The company only pays 50% anyhow about $7800 for the plan I must take when I retire and it ends at 65 when medicare kicks in.
I am also a retired Army reservist in the grey area. Which means that I do not get retirement pay or medical benefits until 60 years of age.
Therefore, I need to provide medical and dental insurance for my family of 5 ( I still have 3 young kids) until 60.
Here are my 3 general options I see:
1: pay for company medical via cobra for 18 months @ right under $16K. This is a decent plan.
2: pay for military Tri-Care which I am eligible for, but since I am not eligible for medical benefit until 60 - I have to pay the full cost of the insurance. It is $12K a year for 2012, but going up in Feb. - also decent insurance.
3: purchase medical on the open market. There are a wide variety of plans available at various price points. Here are some that I remember.
High deductible plans - the insurance kicks in after you have spent the deductible;
$5K deductible and $7K cost there is still 20% co-pay after the deductible.
$10K deductible and $3.5K cost there is still 20% co-pay after the deductible.
Regular medical plan with $1000 deductible was around $12-14K
Lots of other options and different deductibles and co-pays. Also the health savings accounts impacts the calculations because the premiums might be pre-tax. With all the Obama care changes things will certainly change if they haven't already!
Thanks!
Expat
Bakken Update: Continental Continues To Seek Better Differentials [View article]
another good article - thank you!
I keep reading that unconventional oil wells deploy faster than conventional wells in other articles. This is never backed up with any evidence. Is there any factual data to back these statements up that you or anyone know of?
Does anyone have any data?
Thanks!
Expat
Is Molycorp Getting A Bum Rap? If So, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Thanks!
Expat
Why Exxon Mobil Should Support Natural Gas Transportation [View article]
Some CNG conversion kits include dual fuel capability both CNG and gasoline when you run out of CNG, just flip a switch to start using gasoline. I am not sure what the cost of running the compressor station is per gallon but that certainly adds to the cost. Still very very cheap compared to gasoline. Last year I priced kits for my F-150 and cost for the conversion kit was about $2K with a 5 gallon tank and the Phil compressor was about $4,000. All this to get fuel at $2 a gallon back then. Unfortunately the Ford 6 cylinder engine I have does not have a conversion kit yet.
Being an old oilfield hand working my way through college ( I actually worked on a couple Exxon wells near Big Piney WY), I know there are very good salaries for the blue color working man in the oil patch - something we seem to need now in America.
I disagree with the author that XOM role should be to build the CNG infrastructure. There has to be a market before I want one of my companies to invest big. I believe it will come, but it isn't there yet. Not enough consumer vehicles have conversion kits and the Phil was the only at home compressor I found. More competition in both of these areas is needed before the transition crosses the chasm to the main stream.
Sell Exxon Now: Too Much Uncertainty Exists In Iraq [View article]
How much production does it get from Iraq today? What % overall?
How much is anticipated?
How much capital is XOM investing in Iraq?
I am betting much less than 3% of production! If Iraq explodes - little impact to XOM.
If Iran explodes and tries to block the Persian Gulf. It will only be temporary (because we will kick their asses up and down the gulf) and again little impact to XOM.
Foreclosure, Principal, And The Housing Market [View article]
This would allow people who can pay to enjoy lower interest rate mortgage.
I think the loss the government would end up with will be low and a possible net gain without forgiving debt or giving more funds to banks!
A Response To Whitney Tilson's Netflix Flip-Flop [View article]
If all hedge and former hedge fund managers were so open with their investment thesis - what a better world this would be.
I have no interest in NFLX now - too many uncertainties for my money. I made money and got out of NFLX 2 years ago - a little early I guess!
Yes, You Can Retire: One Investor's Contrarian Perspective [View article]
Thanks for the good article!
The Challenges of Using Beta to Measure Risk [View article]
I wish you had written this 6 months ago because it would have saved me a lot of time. I had to learn most of this by picking up text books and scanning the web. This article lays it out clearly and I did not realize the swings in beta were so large.
I am a follower now.
Expat
Paul Ryan's 'Land of Austeria': Nothing but Nonsense [View article]
don't attack the few politician's with courage to propose something!
Everyone else is just shooting the BS! Your article is exactly why politicians are cowards - they don't like being attacked - so they never put anything in writing - just more BS talk.
I expected more from you.
One less follower!
The Important Factors to Consider When Investing in Iron Ore [View article]
thanks for a good article. What about the major's costs - don't they really control the price since their produciton is such a large percentage of the total world output?
How about Fortesque Minerals Group? It is now becoming a major player with low production costs and with other major production increases from the the other 2 big majors in Australia will the price of Fe flatline?
If China slows down, as it is apparanetly doing, how long can these Fe prices hold up?
Is now a risky time to enter into a Fe miner position?
Thanks!
Expat
Companies Issue Warnings on Q1 Earnings, Citing Japan and Middle East [View article]
The killer tsunami damage is primarily limited to the 5 provinces on the coast east of Tokyo and North - Chiba, Ibaraki, Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate. Damage is along the coast. I do not think too many factories were impacted - the only major city is Sendai (of 1 million) and the tsunami only did damage in the suburbs by the ocean and the airport about 15 KM from the city center. Supply chain impact limited from Tsunami damage and only mediam size port was Sendai. The other ports destroyed were mostly small.
Major impacts from the nuclear power plant issues caused by earthquake and tsunami. We in the Tokyo Electric Power company area have lost 25% of our generating capacity - 10 nuclear power generators. 1 out of ever 4 Japanese are provided electricity by TEPCO. So company production schedules are disrupted. We are on rolling blackouts outside the key Tokyo business areas (center parts of the city). This is the main problem impacting the supply chain. Production is impacted by the rolling blackouts. We have overcome the fuel shortages (some refineries got knocked offline) and more power is slowly coming on line. By the end of April they expect the blackouts to end.
The major supply chain impacts are from the lack of power. Although some key plants were damged in the earthquake and even less in the tsunami - not enough of them to have a significant impact from what I have read. Power is the problem - track power availabilitiy to see when the supply chain bottle necks end!
Expat
Former Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Merrill McPeak disagrees with much of the chatter regarding the no-fly zone. "I can’t imagine an easier military problem ... just flying a few jets across the top of the friendlies would probably be enough to ground the Libyan Air Force." [View news story]
He might not understand that he could infiltrate some of our and/or other country's special forces to train/lead the rebels and a reasonable amount of additional weapons to remove Gaddafi. The teams leave immediately once the rebels are capable and we have no occupation duty - all with plausible deniability.
Is removing a mass murderer to save innocent lives worth a little criticism from unfriendly countries?
This may be the defining moment of the next election. I think that if he does nothing in Libya he reduces his chances for reelection. No leadership->higher oil->lower consumer sentiment-> slower economy->less jobs->new president.
We Americans and the rest of the world (including Libyans) need real leadership in the White House and unfortunately we do not have it.
De Oppresso Liber