Expat in Tokyo

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  • Love Them Or Hate Them, Mortgage REITs Don't 'Really' Deliver  [View article]
    Great article!
    Feb 8, 2016. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Thoughts On The Markets  [View article]
    I love the way you write!

    This statement is funny and sad - "Aside from that, most of what the FOMC will say tomorrow will just be noise. They don't have a theory that guides them; they are just making it up as they go, so they wander and try to discover what their goals should be."

    And the statement should make all of us to put risk management first!


    Merry Christmas!

    Dec 16, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Refining: Likely To Buy Northern Tier's High Quality Assets On The Cheap  [View article]
    I to am a NTI shareholder that Western is not treating fairly!

    I suspect a lawsuit by someone before this is over. Two main reasons - massive conflicts of interest and unfair price!

    Dec 14, 2015. 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac: Is It Time To Buy?  [View article]

    no analysis of AFLAC can be complete without a discussion of the currency risk due to having 70% of their business in Japan. IMO the reason the multiple is so low is the currency risk.

    Because of this risk and Abenomics I see no reason to buy the stock again. I wish the growth rate in USA would increase substantially to reduce the exposure to the Yen. Then I would take a 2nd look - I have been waiting for this to happen for a while now. Seems AFLAC can't reduce the Yen exposure as fast as the Yen is dropping.


    Dec 11, 2015. 09:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Dividend Growth Investors: I Have A Problem.  [View instapost]
    Improved health to you Bob!

    MLP WPZ and general partner WMB are getting bought out by ETE and I think the yield will drop substantially.

    Morningstar expects a 20-25% cut in KMI dividend arguing that KMI wants to maintain it investment credit rating over the dividend. Morningstar sees KMI recovering with a price target of $27 and with the cut being able to get through the low commodity prices, maintain capital investments and back to dividend growth.

    Both MMP and EPD, which I own along with KMI, SE, and ENB, do not have general partners and thus no IDRs. I am sticking with Morningstar analysis and KMI leadership - I will be keeping my 3% dividend portfolio IRA position in KMI. I may even double down after they cut the dividend.

    To get EBITDA on the other MLPs you mentioned. Seeking Alpa author - Ron Hiram analyzes those MLPs and more.


    Dec 6, 2015. 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Cummins About To Rally?  [View article]

    doesn't the the stock drop roughly by the dividend amount on the dividend pay day? So this large 6% drop is about 1% caused by the dividend payment today?


    Dec 1, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Core Laboratories: Negative Equity From Stock Buybacks Spells Danger In Industry Downturn  [View article]
    All CLB has to do to stay within free cash flow is slow down the buy backs.

    No risk to CLB at this time and likely until 2017-8 if oil stays low.

    Weak thesis in this article.

    Nov 29, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne - Set For Survival  [View article]
    Will it keep its dividend during the hard times?
    Nov 13, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Your Retirement Portfolio: Mild Dementia  [View article]
    Great article!

    Dementia runs in the family!

    I plan to have the family investments on autopilot by the time my last child graduates college. I will be 66 then and plan on using the Buffet approach of index funds for all our accounts - as I do now for my wife's IRA.

    Thank you for publicizing a real threat to us invincible baby boomers!

    Jun 5, 2015. 08:11 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners LP: The Recent Collapse Presents A Strong Buying Opportunity  [View article]
    2 problems with management and why I sold.

    Poor timing buying oil and gas assets!

    Loaded up the balance sheet when income was dropping. If they had held fast, we would be in the cat bird seat picking up very cheap assets.

    I fear the debt rollover in 2016 will force stringent covenant conditions that may include another dividend cut.

    Won't know until it happens with this management.

    May 28, 2015. 05:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Troubling Economics And AFLAC  [View article]

    a good overall article until this paragraph.

    "Japan's stagnant economy is no cause for concern for AFLAC investors. On paper, the company must translate its Japanese earnings into dollars. In practice, the company does not do this. In the long run, underlying business growth will determine the value of AFLAC shares, not currency fluctuations."

    You cannot gloss over the currency risk. If 75% of business is in Japan and they don't convert Yen to dollars where are the dividends and buybacks coming from? Not enough profits in USA to pay for all the dividends and buybacks. Look at the numbers.

    With the Japanese debt in excess of 200% of GDP the currency fluctuations are not anywhere near normal risk - this is an extreme case IMO.


    May 22, 2015. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worst-Of-Breed Frac Sand Producer Emerge Is A Strong Buy  [View article]

    what about the 1100 rail cars in storage? What do the car storage costs and the new rail cars on contract that EMES has to purchase impact the cash flow?

    THanks for a good article.

    May 7, 2015. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Aflac Is A Solid Dividend Investment  [View article]

    I always enjoy your articles, but this one misses the mark. No analysis on AFLAC can be complete without a Yen-Dollar currency discussion.

    I also think a discussion of the demographics in Japan are pertinent for long term investors. I was long for many years, but bailed out last year due to currency risk.


    Apr 23, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spending Typically Declines As We Age  [View article]
    I also wonder, as does ConcernedProf75, if this is a forced reduction by being poor and seeing your nest egg shrink. Causing a more conservative spending pattern to reduce risk as one ages.

    Thanks for a very good article!

    Apr 22, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprising Oil Hotspot Brewing In America  [View article]
    GOM in deep water has high pressures, therefore no or little lifting cost.

    Apr 22, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment