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Expat in Tokyo

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  • The Biggest Threat To Your Retirement Portfolio: Mild Dementia [View article]
    Great article!

    Dementia runs in the family!

    I plan to have the family investments on autopilot by the time my last child graduates college. I will be 66 then and plan on using the Buffet approach of index funds for all our accounts - as I do now for my wife's IRA.

    Thank you for publicizing a real threat to us invincible baby boomers!

    Jun 5, 2015. 08:11 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners LP: The Recent Collapse Presents A Strong Buying Opportunity [View article]
    2 problems with management and why I sold.

    Poor timing buying oil and gas assets!

    Loaded up the balance sheet when income was dropping. If they had held fast, we would be in the cat bird seat picking up very cheap assets.

    I fear the debt rollover in 2016 will force stringent covenant conditions that may include another dividend cut.

    Won't know until it happens with this management.

    May 28, 2015. 05:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Troubling Economics And AFLAC [View article]

    a good overall article until this paragraph.

    "Japan's stagnant economy is no cause for concern for AFLAC investors. On paper, the company must translate its Japanese earnings into dollars. In practice, the company does not do this. In the long run, underlying business growth will determine the value of AFLAC shares, not currency fluctuations."

    You cannot gloss over the currency risk. If 75% of business is in Japan and they don't convert Yen to dollars where are the dividends and buybacks coming from? Not enough profits in USA to pay for all the dividends and buybacks. Look at the numbers.

    With the Japanese debt in excess of 200% of GDP the currency fluctuations are not anywhere near normal risk - this is an extreme case IMO.


    May 22, 2015. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worst-Of-Breed Frac Sand Producer Emerge Is A Strong Buy [View article]

    what about the 1100 rail cars in storage? What do the car storage costs and the new rail cars on contract that EMES has to purchase impact the cash flow?

    THanks for a good article.

    May 7, 2015. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Aflac Is A Solid Dividend Investment [View article]

    I always enjoy your articles, but this one misses the mark. No analysis on AFLAC can be complete without a Yen-Dollar currency discussion.

    I also think a discussion of the demographics in Japan are pertinent for long term investors. I was long for many years, but bailed out last year due to currency risk.


    Apr 23, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spending Typically Declines As We Age [View article]
    I also wonder, as does ConcernedProf75, if this is a forced reduction by being poor and seeing your nest egg shrink. Causing a more conservative spending pattern to reduce risk as one ages.

    Thanks for a very good article!

    Apr 22, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprising Oil Hotspot Brewing In America [View article]
    GOM in deep water has high pressures, therefore no or little lifting cost.

    Apr 22, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: The Box Closes In [View article]
    I remember when I worked for IBM in the late 80's before I got laid off the thesis of this article was also in the news. Then IBM turned around. Yes, that was 25 years ago, but they can do it again. And one of the main problems was the client-server model and min-computers that IBM was way behind on.

    What happened just to remind everyone was that IBM had to right size the company for existing revenues - (I help when they laid me off!), and invest in growth areas to start to grow the company again. They succeeded.

    No certainty this will happen again, but I bet they pull it off. That is why I am long easing into my position over the last year.


    Apr 21, 2015. 10:45 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned - Confessions Of A Financial Adviser [View article]
    Great article!

    Lots of good information all pulled together and well written.

    This should be published in the AAII journal.


    Apr 16, 2015. 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technology Indices And Creative Destruction: When Might The Bubble Burst? [View article]
    Very good article!


    Apr 11, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important [View article]
    We shut down nearly half our rigs in 6 months and we can start em up in about the same 6months time. Once prices rise more rigs will start drilling and there will be no large price increase - a dollar or two increase will do it! Like it always does.

    Apr 7, 2015. 10:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part II: Nelson's Notes On Berkshire Hathaway's 2014 Newsletter [View article]
    Good article!

    My family is still enjoying the fruits of our first stock in 1998 BRKB!


    Apr 3, 2015. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Lumber Liquidators' First Quarter Business Update [View article]
    I think readers should challenge the argument Whitney is making vice attacking him.

    If you do not like his articles - don't read them.

    BTW - I think he always publishes his short positions in his quarterly updates as he does his long positions.

    This is just another short for him when the vast majority of his investments are longs. Find another public investor that tells people what he is doing!
    Then you attack him vice his investment thesis. No wonder most public investors don't say anything.

    Apr 3, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Says Digital Realty Is A Right REIT At A Right Time For Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Another great article.

    I am 2 for 3 so far already owning highlighted companies. I had been watching EMR and after your first article I decided to pull the trigger.


    Apr 2, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Special Forces Can Teach Us About Investing [View article]
    Unconventional thinking is key!

    De Oppresso Liber

    Mar 19, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment