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dgodfrey

dgodfrey
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F, FB, FCX
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  • Freeport-McMoRan: Why Its Acquisitions May Cause Investors To Sell [View article]
    FCX management has chosen to diversify away from copper. What does that tell you about their view of the copper market?

    Time will tell if the oil & gas acquisitions were in-artful hedges of an inherent energy short position of a copper miner that carry a boatload of other risks.

    Good luck to longs.

    The trend in FCX, for now, is down.
    Dec 9 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Why Its Acquisitions May Cause Investors To Sell [View article]
    good article
    Dec 6 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Small-Cap Value Style [View article]
    agree with you randy.

    not likely to get a response from the author since he has a fixed approach to what he does that is based on backward looking data.

    it can be helpful, but doesn't always work.
    Sep 24 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Price Decline Imminent [View article]
    Statistically speaking, I do not believe your seasonality analysis to be statistically significant (at a confidence level of interest to investors), given your sample size.

    Further, I don't know what the logic of a 35 year sample period is. Perhaps you could elaborate on this.

    If you redo the sample period at simply 30 years, I believe you would get somewhat different results, which is consistent with my earlier comment that I do not believe your seasonality analysis is providing meaningful information.

    Best wishes.
    Aug 20 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Small-Cap Value Style [View article]
    yes that was a typo. I meant RZV.
    Aug 20 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Small-Cap Value Style [View article]
    I applaud the diligence of the author in his analysis of past accounting information to ascertain best companies to invest in.

    I agree that past return on invested capital and what you have to pay to own that return is helpful in assessing investment opportunities. What is not captured by this type of rating system is how companies business prospects change over time, especially during changes from relatively poor business conditions to relatively better business conditions.

    Since your article was published (August 10) RZW has already strongly outperformed the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis. Time will tell whether this will continue.

    The inherent design of RZW attempts to capture the "pure value" companies within the S&P 600 (small cap universe, as articulated by S&P's index). If you like the concept of "value" investing, and you like the idea of selecting the best values from within the S&P small cap pool to invest in, from time to time this index may in fact turn out to be quite a nice one to own.

    I hope you will revisit your article a few times over the next weeks, months and year to see how your prediction turns out. For now the trends look to be changing to FAVORABLE for RZW and personally I like the operational definition of "undervalued" . . . that which appreciates in price.

    Best wishes.
    Aug 18 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait To Buy Facebook At $22.50 [View article]
    The timing may have been relatively perfect from the perspective of FB, which apparently was interested in only in extracting as many dollars from investors as possible.

    They will be well positioned to do a buy back at 50% or more below the offering price; and with decent PR, may even get credit for "helping out their investor 'friends' ". Whether FB would or could actually do such a buy back is, of course, purely speculative.

    Thanks to Brian for his research and diligence in pointing out the pattern in these recent IPOs.
    May 29 12:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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