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dgodfrey
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Registered Investment Adviser Global Trend Following Market Neutral Investing Since 2003
My blog:
Trends for Profit
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  • Revision To Bank Stock Comment

    In light of the correction that seems to be developing, yesterday's post about possible bank stock out-performance has been re-assessed. My view is that these securities should no longer be held for out-performance relative to the market.

    Bank stocks today are weakening after a some recent relative strength. I would be concerned that this new weakness will persist and that holding the banks mentioned would not be a good idea.

    There seem to be other areas for relative out-performance that offer a better return for risk taken. Please send me an email to discuss.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own due diligence.

    Best wishes

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in BAC over the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Positions change day to day based on trend developments.

    Feb 03 6:25 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Selected Bank Stocks To Consider Owning For Relative Performance

    Earlier today I posted an update to my "market correction" post made in December.

    This post is made to suggest a few ideas for stocks that may do well relative to the market (which as I posted, might be under some selling pressure).

    These are bank stocks that have trends that seem to be holding somewhat well even though the market is under pressure. At the moment, I actually own these names on a hedged basis. Please note: My positions can change day-to-day based on trend developments.

    I would suggest that it might be worthwhile to put these names on your list for analysis and possibly, in consultation with your investment adviser(s), consider owning.

    They are:

    BAC Bank of America

    FITB First Third Bancorp

    HBAN Huntington Bancshares

    This is not a recommendation for investment. Do your own due diligence.

    Best wishes

    Disclosure: I am long BAC, HBAN, FITB.

    Additional disclosure: My positions can change day to day based on trend developments. At the moment the names mentioned are also hedged with market index related instruments.

    Jan 29 11:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Durable Equity Market Correction--Update

    On December 18, I shared my views on why I believe a durable equity market correction was on the near term horizon. All of those ideas continue to hold.

    As an update this morning, I would also like to mention that the recent declines in the broader market indexes (i.e. the S&P 500, Russell 200, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA) have all been large enough and fast enough to strongly suggest that these price indices are starting to confirm my earlier thinking.

    As I look at all of the pieces of the puzzle, I have to say that I think the size of what may be an imminent market price correction looks like it might be larger than people are expecting (i.e. greater than 10%). In fact, certain elements suggest that the correction could be rather larger.

    In some ways, the foregoing analysis is the easiest part of what an investor has to do. The hard part is to translate this thinking, effectively into an increase in the value of an investment or trading account. My thinking on that is that for a while the market may still be a little choppy and provide opportunities to sell on strength (if that is what you decide you want to do and/or is in your best personal interest. I am not your adviser, so please consult him or her as to what you should be doing in the markets at a time like this).

    If the market stays choppy and provides both up and down price action you will have a chance to make any changes to your portfolio in accordance with those opportunities. Looking at my analyses and thinking about how the markets behave, I do believe that if the correction does occur as I am expecting, after several weeks of choppiness, a full-fledged downward correction might ensue.

    One of the reasons I believe that I believe a relatively larger correction is in our near term future is the durability of the indicators that are "flashing" at the moment. These suggest several months of price weakness. That is enough time to somewhat thoroughly change prevailing bullish investor sentiment to the opposite. If that occurs, there will likely be a period of "panic" selling at the time sentiment goes to bearish extreme levels that we have not seen for a while.

    The foregoing is not investment advice. I am not your investment adviser, do not know your personal financial situation or holdings and have no idea what your risk tolerance or financial objectives or needs are. Please consult with your own professional prior to taking any actions in these risky markets.

    Best wishes and let me know if any of the foregoing was helpful to you.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own due diligence.

    Disclosure: I am short SPY, QQQ, IWM.

    Additional disclosure: My (net) positions in the equity markets change day by day. At any time, short positions may be partially or more than fully offset by a variety of other non-identical, long positions.

    Jan 29 9:31 AM | Link | Comment!
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