Seeking Alpha

maz » Comments » CHK

  • Michael Hall: Natural Gas Is a Victim of Its Own Success [View article]
    Gas Rig counts are now 810 (27 March) so almost down 50% from the high and going lower. It will not be long till this affects supply as depletion rates on new wells are so high - certainly not longer than 6 months imo although there could be an increase in LNG imports that could stretch things out a bit. Cimarex was forecasting dropping from 35 to mid-single digits in rig count!
    Mar 28 20:53 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Back from the Dead [View article]
    BadCompany,

    Your comment makes absolutely no sense whatsoever - in a pump & dump scheme the CEO would surely have benefited from selling a vast number of shares in the $60 & $70 range. Instead he sold none & eventually had 95% of his shares taken in a margin call.

    Also anyone that invests in energy could tell you that what you are looking at in the charts is another period with very low short term O&G prices.

    The share price will follow short term NG prices just as every other natty out there. The value of the assets is not determined by short term prices.
    Dec 17 19:04 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Called the Market's Bluff [View article]
    Come on Guys this is NOT a political forum
    Sep 02 17:23 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Raising Chesapeake Energy's Intrinsic Value Estimates [View article]
    Although Haynesville is likely very good news for CHK I'd classify Davy's valuation as a guesstimate at this stage & certainly wouldn't take a $75 to $100 valuation to the bank. There is simply too much information missing

    * It relies on NG remaining in the $8 to $10 range yet that much increase in supply may negatively effect price.

    * We have no idea how much lease costs will be to expand from 200,000 to 500,000 acres but we do know that they'll be high as everyone & his dog knows the play

    * There's no guarantee that pull costs will be similar to Barnett

    * Lastly & perhaps most important we have no idea how much dilution and/or increased debt we will have to take on to get to the vast increases in proven reserves. What we do know is that it's highly unlikely that the latest dilution is the last - we've been this route before.

    Morningstar has a more conservative $59 valuation - which may prove low in the end but imo is prudent for the time being
    Apr 22 17:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
More on CHK by maz
Comments by Ticker
maz's
Comments Stats
48 comments
Rating: 70 (77 - 7 )