Mike Conlon

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

Black Swan has jumped the shark.

Jumped the shark has jumped the shark.

How Low Can the Dollar Go?

Yep-- just the type shock that can unwind these carry trades pretty darn fast. If this Dubai debt crisis sets off a domino effect and starts the commercial real estate death spiral that some have been predicting, then look out below.

I'm also going to keep an eye on gold. While it too is selling off due to dollar strength, it will be interesting to see demand picks up.

Until that happens, I'm going to keep buying gold and re-establish dollar shorts. Trade well!


On Nov 27 02:09 AM untrusting investor wrote:

> Well,guess we will all find out about the carry trade and the US
> dollar shortly here. Since the Dubai debt default rumor on Thurs.
> it seems both Asia and Europe are selling off a bunch. US futures
> are poised for a big sell-off on Friday morning. If short covering
> on the US dollar carry trade gets rolling it could get to be a pretty
> ugly picture for the longs, commodities, gold, and currencies. We
> shall see how the dip buyers react to what is looking like some fear
> returning.

Implications for the British Pound Should Stocks Fall

Thank you for your reply. I should have clarified that the number missed analyst forecasts, which were in the 40K range, and not that the BBA makes forecasts. My apologies for being unclear.

And I do agree that while the decline is statistically insignificant, it is giving clues that "all is not well".

Today's move in GBP confirms that assertion.


On Sep 24 10:15 AM BritishBankers wrote:

> British Bankers' Association here. Interesting argument but may we
> please correct you on two points? The mortgage approval figures we
> announced yesterday did indeed show a fall in mortgage approvals:
> from 38,186 in June to 38,095 in July. Fewer than 100 - hardly seismic.
> And the figures did not miss expectations, because we had none: we
> provide only current statistics, not forecasts.

3 Reasons Why a September Stock Sell-Off Isn't Likely

Aww it looks like I've made a friend. Two comments on your profile and both on my article. I'm sorry to say friend that I'm already married.

Ad hominem attacks aside, I don't disagree with Bling Daddy's comments either. All I am saying is that with all of the manipulation going on in the equity markets, it is really difficult to use the "fundamentals" as a guide to your investing or trading. "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

This falls in line with Albertarock's comments-- when everyone is bearish I want to be bullish, and vice-versa. Its called contrarian investing.

Take a look back at the Internet Boom, if you were a pure fundamental investor, you would have missed the entire rally as the multiples for the dotcom stocks were ridiculous as most companies had no earnings. If you did ride the wave up AND knew nothing about risk management you probably lost all of your gains on the way down as well.

My point simply is that with proper risk management techniques, you can buy stocks in any market.

Carry on.


On Sep 02 04:33 PM finance consultant wrote:

> The "devil's advocate seems like a logical thinking person. The
> authors are idiots and they are the sort of people that have caused
> many to lose their life savings. These are the guys that the proverb
> " a fool and his money are soon parted" was written for.

Why Obama's Big Spending Fallacy Could Ruin U.S. Economy

Brilliant analysis based on historical facts, and not populist rhetoric.

Buy China Policy - Is Protectionism on the Rise?

I don't think the Chinese want to waste their yuan on Chinese crap products, they'll leave that for Americans with useless paper!

Are ETFs Signaling a Bottom for the Economy?

Au contraire. I would contend that in fact China's pegging to the US dollar has had a MAJOR effect on this crisis. The trade surplus wouldn't be nearly as bad if they allowed their currency to float. And then again they wouldn't have had double digit growth numbers either. If they had fewer dollars to lend, then wouldn't have such exposure to US govt securities. It is their own fault that they invested so heavily in US Treasuries, rather than having a more diversified portfolio.

So while the common man may think that they have us by the short hairs, this couldn't be further from the truth. The sooner our politicians realize this, the better.


On Jun 07 11:56 PM TraderRob wrote:

> The reason that China has been calling for a world currency isn't
> tough to deduce. When China holds their U.S. trade surplus in Treasury
> debt and the value of that investment is rapidly declining, due to
> the $3 billion+ of new debt to be issued over the course of 2009,
> it's reasonable for them to begin exploring alternatives.
>
> All of this "seat at the table" talk and mud throwing at other countries
> because of what they've "stolen" doesn't have anything to do with
> the economics of the dilemma. Anti-American ETF's as you so Bush-esquely
> coin them are the direct result of an overwhelming demand to short
> certain parts of the U.S. economy.

Are ETFs Signaling a Bottom for the Economy?

The author is not "irked" by Shari'ah investment principles, but was merely pointing out that this ETF is basically a US Large Cap Index.

The point of the article was not that the US is a great place in which to invest, but rather that these ETFs may have jumped the shark, so to speak.

By the time the themes and trends are recognized, it may already be too late. Just like fading Jim Cramer or selling when CNBC gets wind of an investment "opportunity". Basically a contrarian indicator.


On Jun 07 11:24 PM Alan Young wrote:

> I would love to see more patriotic sentiment in business decisions—
> on the part of large companies that actually have the kind of leverage
> that could affect the economy that the rest of us must live by. Then
> I'll be delighted to invest locally.
>
> If it's "anti-American" to want to invest in sound business rather
> than shell games, all the worse for America. When I see the big
> banks take the small investors, main street businesses, municipalities
> and even the US Treasury for a ride; manipulate stock prices for
> their own profit, without regard to havoc they wreak on American
> society, it advances neither my own fortune nor my country's to invest
> as such banks advise.
>
> With interest rates liable to skyrocket any time now, investing only
> in companies that don't rely on lending money sounds like a good
> plan. That's the principle of Shari'ah investment, which seems to
> irk the author so much. If you want your investments to be political
> statements instead of business decisions, that's your privilege.

An Evening With Barney Frank (Part 2)

Phew! For a minute there I thought this article was going to be about ladies underwear and cocaine and perhaps midgets. Glad to see SA still has standards.

Investors See 'Green Shoots' in 1Q GDP Manure

Title says it all. Bravo!