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tsra1983

tsra1983
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  • China's Dream, Our Nightmare: How To Invest, How To Hedge [View article]
    If I recall correctly, projections for recoverable reserves of silver are, depending on who you believe, about 12 to 25 years worth of supply at current mining rates. So, that's not factoring in increased mining or decreasing economics of retrieval.

    Perhaps another investment viewpoint to glean from this artilce would be to be on the opposite side of the unconventional oil boom. These pure play unconventional E&P companies are operating a Wall Street driven shell game and no one dares to say that the emperor has no clothes. The decline rates are so strong, and the economics so sensitive, that their business models demand an ever-quickening-CapEx-... They have to continually add locations and rigs to keep their corporate production profile growing (and book PUD value). If anything gives way (number of locations, operational capacity either in terms of rigs or humans, or commodity prices) the production profiles of these companies will begin to look an awful lot like the hyperbolic decline rate of a single well. Not to mention, by the nature of the model, these companies are forced to spend outside of cash flow.

    Look out below.
    May 6 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Oil Major Has Discovered A Billion Barrels Of Oil But Nobody Cares - Why? [View article]
    A billion barrels sounds like a lot of oil. However, it actually only satisfies about 11 days of world consumption. The world consumes somewhere around 93 million barrels per day. Think about that.
    Aug 19 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spyglass Resources: With A 15.5% Yield The Market Wrongly Expects Certain Failure [View article]
    If you look at most NG co.s right now they are barely surviving. Obviously. They are just trying to tread water long enough to maybe make it out alive.

    I personally believe that we are on the cusp of a short term down trend in US on-shore natural gas. This should give some support to prices before drilling and alleviation of production curtailments (choke back) take over for a correction. A window of arbitrage in the NG market is upon us. Hedge funds already know this. Still, for retail investors, the debt load a lot of these companies have will make survival difficult.
    May 12 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of U.S. Oil: Wolfcamp And The Gulf Of Mexico [View article]
    These Wolfcamp plays are not in East Texas.

    What "original oil boom" 40 years ago is the author talking about? A boom in 1973, presumably in East Texas? Does he mean Spindletop (which was in East Texas), over 100 years ago. Or perhaps the Santa Rita #1, in West Texas, 90 years ago?
    Mar 5 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Did Chesapeake Sell $12 Billion Of Assets And Actually Increase Its Debt? [View article]
    I wonder how much of CHK's production is dedicated to midstream entities which may be affiliated with CHK in some way... and perhaps is being sold under contracts which are wildly beneficial to said midstream co. This would effectively be transferring cash flow from CHK proper to loosely affiliated entities.. basically causing royalty owners to foot the bill.

    Hmmmmm.
    Feb 1 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) says Aubrey McClendon will retire as CEO effective April 1. The CHK board says its extensive review of alleged conflicts of interest and other matters involving McClendon has thus far found no improper conduct; a final report will be completed in mid-February. CHK +10.6% AH. [View news story]
    I hope McClendon's narcissism subsides and his conscience keeps him up at night.

    The real story here is probably in the asinine retirement package he most likely received.

    Good riddance to you, McClendon. You abused a publicly traded company to as nearly a criminal level as you could get away with. Please, please, whatever French wine cellar you retreat to, take your glorified HR VP pal Wilson with you.
    Jan 29 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Intel's Situation Bodes For The Entire IT Space [View article]
    We are also reaching price and supply constraints in rare earths and PMs.
    Jan 24 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Reasons Chesapeake Is Positioned For Rising Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    XTO hasn't acquired any wells from CHK in the Barnett. Here's what really happened:
    There were some CHK leases in an area where XTO most likely had most of the leases and a location from which to drill. XTO proposed a jointly operated well to CHK covering a unitized area which includes leases from both companies. CHK participated and is billed for the well according to the amount of leasehold they own. XTO is paying royalties to everyone regardless of who their lease is with.
    Bottom line, you probably own a very small amount of land in a very large area. Also, gas prices are extremely low which drives down the value of production and royalties net to you. They do typically withhold payment unless you've reached some threshold amount.
    Kind of puts those crazy bonus amounts everyone was going nuts about a few years ago in perspective, doesn't it?
    Oct 25 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Continue To Fall? [View article]
    -Oil is at 85 dollars. That's over 40% off highs from the four years ago you cite.
    -Sugar is trading at notably low prices.

    Commodity valuations are a mixed bag right now. But, don't get me wrong, you're right that it's coming and we'll need to "hold onto our hats".
    Oct 25 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Our 4 Top Picks In A High-Potential Space [View article]
    I wonder what kind of lingering legal liability WFC has related to mortgages. It's certainly a concern for BAC.
    Oct 24 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Continue To Fall? [View article]
    You're right. Inflation is not rampant. In fact, we're just staving off deflation right now.

    BUT, the tide will turn. The bond market will be the indicator.
    Oct 24 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays investigates possible overvaluation in MLPs and thinks “the sector does not screen as cheap and will widen if the market gives up recent gains," advising investors who are overweight in EPD, PAA and KMI to moderate their positions. It's OK to add to ETB, EPB and DPM, the firm says, but reduce exposure to BPL, EEP and BWP[View news story]
    I know. I was just pointing out that MLPs have seen valuation gains for a reason (from a common unit perspective).

    Also, their paper is good because they have tangible, reliable, cash producing assets. You know like real things, instead of some dweeb fresh out of yale in a Manhattan basement dreaming up intangible financial pie-in-the-sky products.
    Oct 12 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays investigates possible overvaluation in MLPs and thinks “the sector does not screen as cheap and will widen if the market gives up recent gains," advising investors who are overweight in EPD, PAA and KMI to moderate their positions. It's OK to add to ETB, EPB and DPM, the firm says, but reduce exposure to BPL, EEP and BWP[View news story]
    I agree with Mike.

    However, MLPs have done fairly well in the current environment because they are dividend vehicles. And, these are mostly midstream cash-cows.

    This is a classic flight to safety during a time of low interest rates and a crazy energy markets. I wouldn't trust Barclays on this at all.
    Oct 11 10:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. is heading towards fiscal disaster and no one in Washington is doing anything about it, warns a trio of experts. Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson - authors the Simpson-Bowles reform plan - along with Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein are concerned that investors are putting way too much faith in Congress and the White House to work out a deal. Those people are just "whistling around the market" right now, and they're likely to get creamed, Simpson notes. "They really believe honestly that no Congress could be this stupid, and by God, they can.” [View news story]
    I probably won't vote because I don't really care for either candidate. But, I agree with your assessment of the VP debate 100%. The moderator has practically acted as an extension of Biden.
    Oct 11 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The underperformance of Ivy League endowments for the year ended June 30 is another illustration of how the "smart" money is down on U.S. stocks. These funds have benefited over the past 20 years by shifting assets into alternative investments - Yale now has a U.S. equity allocation of 6% vs. a 35% weighting in P-E. It might be time to return to the simple 60/40 U.S. stocks and bonds model, but who's going to pay 2 and 20 for that? [View news story]
    Every sell side bozo is pushing "Alternative Investment" vehicles on anyone with over $500k in assets right now. The "smart money" are likely liquidating their positions and creating this sell side momentum.

    PE has been very active since the turn of the century, and even more so since '08. I think they're going to be offloading assets in the next few years. Assets that are going to end up on the balance sheets of publicly traded companies.
    Sep 29 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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