FIG trader_

REITs: High Valuation, Questionable Value

Almost 3 months later, and the REITs are even more overvalued according to "market participant". He may be correct, but he hasn't outlined probabilistic scenarios assessing the security of the revenue stream (i.e. recession, rent and lease cuts) or how it is to be discounted (i.e. interest rates). I'll put in my two cents, though I still think it is 50/50 whether it actually happens. There is some momentum money here, but lots of foreign investors (Need I say stodgy Germans) who have been buying real estate for some time. The possible trigger seems to be a run on the dollar, which could spank the Treasury markets, though at this precise moment the exact opposite is happening. Treasuries are being bid, and $ is being sold down the river. Do we break $1.35/ Euro? I think more profound reasoning is needed to make a real bear case. There is one smart investor who bought homebuilders cheap and sold them when they were expensive. As of few months ago, he was still massively long apartment REITs. His name is Heebner and he runs CGM realty. I would look for what he has to say to get the skinny on what ti look for in a top of this market