FIG trader_

Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!

No Doo Dah; I here you, and sense your frustration at the free publicity pundits get just for being pundits with lots of free time (when do they work??), with zero accountability by the media. I'm not aware of Beary's track record, though being a guest on Kudlow is a strike against him, in my opinion. I have seen some value in some of his graphs and charts. That said, there are some who are good strategists and fundamentalists (not many I would agree). But not everybody has a trading mandate; real money needs to find a home for the long term, hence taking longer term positions based on "funniementals" are some peoples real jobs, though they may have the foggiest notion of what they are doing. As well, there are many frauds in the technical analysis arena. The best out there is someone you have probably not heard of at OpCo. The real winners will be those that integrate both methodologies

REITs: High Valuation, Questionable Value

not sure; you can probably check holdings of funds, and than any potential chnages in Q3 filings, though think they can hide it if they really want to. CNBC may have transcripts from his recent interviews

REITs: High Valuation, Questionable Value

Almost 3 months later, and the REITs are even more overvalued according to "market participant". He may be correct, but he hasn't outlined probabilistic scenarios assessing the security of the revenue stream (i.e. recession, rent and lease cuts) or how it is to be discounted (i.e. interest rates). I'll put in my two cents, though I still think it is 50/50 whether it actually happens. There is some momentum money here, but lots of foreign investors (Need I say stodgy Germans) who have been buying real estate for some time. The possible trigger seems to be a run on the dollar, which could spank the Treasury markets, though at this precise moment the exact opposite is happening. Treasuries are being bid, and $ is being sold down the river. Do we break $1.35/ Euro? I think more profound reasoning is needed to make a real bear case. There is one smart investor who bought homebuilders cheap and sold them when they were expensive. As of few months ago, he was still massively long apartment REITs. His name is Heebner and he runs CGM realty. I would look for what he has to say to get the skinny on what ti look for in a top of this market