FIG trader_

Mortgage Lenders Toast Wall Street with Kool Aid

You are out of your league Trader Mark. TMA's announcement today makes it even more apparent

A Trader's Dream: Handicapping Indymac

I assume you didn't buy it banking on the dv'd. It's been well understood that they would a)lose money in Q4 07, Q1 and Q2 08 b) write down BV (in the four worst quarters) by something close to $10 a share; c) have to raise capital/eliminate dividend. Those are starting points in estimating takeout value, and, assuming independent survival, a starting point for growth in BV

Mortgage Lenders Toast Wall Street with Kool Aid

Who is drinking the Koolaid?? Perhaps you should look at TMA's loss from the sale of MBS in the second half of 2007. Do you even read the stuff you write before publishing? The stock was cut in half. You are incorrect and misleading readers. IMB has/had very little "subprime", and that is not what got them in trouble. Get your facts straight. It is/was mostly ALt-A, something priced very differently in the secondary market for non GSE paper, as well as some homebuilder and other loans. The educated guessers on the sell-side (please not RBC, who downgraded IMB at absolute lows) use "expected losses" embedded in the December 31 price for the ABX index for sub-prime (when estimating potential write-downs for the GSEs), since there is no comparable index for Alt-A. We shall see. (BTW, you are running with the crowd and consensus who are bearish on the mortgage names overall, not in the minority, as you seem to think.). Almost everybody has now thrown in the towel on the GSE's and IMB and others. You can be sure we are close to the bottom, if not there already.