FIG trader_

MBIA and Ambac: Edge of the Cliff, Ratings-Wise

Oldlures1; wake up. do you actually think the "headlines" caused the failure. If you are still holding the bag, it will be empty soon. Only the last phase of the decimation for equity holders is probably due to "headlines". The business model is worthless, and William Ackman deserves star status for exposing the "investment farce". All the rest of your discussion, and that of 99% of commentators is worthless filler.

Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis

Bitchdog; well said, The funny thing is if Ackman is still short and correct that BK is a 2008 event, this will go to zero and JC will lose even more. Does JC he think its going back above $70, or is he hoping for a double to $25. I think he is in the former camp, like many disbelievers. I for one applaud Ackman for doing what no other analyst (or very few) was able to do, defy the sellside, rating agencies, and the whole machinery of Wall Street singlehanded

MBIA, Newcastle: Short Ideas For the Decrease in Land Prices

Its great that you feel you don't have to be very specific about the cause for a potential blowup with MBIA (MBI). Interesting way to analyze financial stocks, and helps me understand who we may be up against when analyzing company and presenting ideas. Its trading just above book value. Notwithstanding the short presented by major hedge fund several weeks ago, they are playing in different sandbox, in the CDS market, with smal changes in credit spreads making or breaking ther bet. Equity investors however ought to learn about value creation, overcollateralization, and loss mitigation in asset backed public finance loans. They are not betting the ranch, and will show very limited losses over time. Buy

MBIA: Expect A Sharp Move On SEC Settlement

Like the insurance industry settlements of yesteryear (not the insurance broker MMC however), the settlement amounts to pocket change for MBIA (less than 1% of almost $10 bill in market, and should be considered almost an irrelevance to the sell side, since little will be done to impose material changes in business practices (ask what AIG has changed, besides the CEO). But they do have to publish, and attempt to make an argument of one that does not exist. As for the merits of the investment case single digit growth in BV (perhaps 8% to 9%), but more than likely 10% based on minimal expected ROE of 12% to 13% (next two or three years) and dividend payouts. But in fact here is where the getting an option on a company with substantially prospects for an improved ROE profile through 2020, given the the high probablity of wider credit spreads (the driver of profitability). After dramatic underperformance since the mid 50's (almost 10 years ago), it seems the stock is a much better positioned for a weakening economy in the financial sector (certainly more predictable), with less earnings volatility. BV may be more volatile short term because of longer duration assets. But longer term, there is not nearly as much trading in the portfolio and less vulnerability to a major balance sheet shock. 10% to 12% annually from these levels is probably better than the "higher risk" 10% bank total returns