FIG trader_

It's Too Late To Short The Financial Sector

maybe someone is covering....

It's Too Late To Short The Financial Sector

Well except for isolated cases (balance sheets where they find "waldo" this quarter) and where technically the stocks look unusually vulnerable, based on multi-month/year support levels at risk of high volume breaks, where is the opportunity in shorting? Clearly, you nor I nor the market, which was valuing BSC, GS 30% higher months ago, know where "waldo" is (see bill gross's sept commentary at pimco.com), though I probably have better idea what is being discounted at current valuations. I would hazard a guess that you you are short (based on a misguided technical approach). If you were short based on fundamentals (weeks/months ago), than congrats, but why not cover now???

It's Too Late To Short The Financial Sector

read what i wrote july 10th

It's Too Late To Short The Financial Sector

read what i wrote July 10th

Why Volatility and Beta Matter

You seem to be looking for data to fit the theory. Price data used to calculate beta (Bloomberg data for example) goes back only five years. Turnover of average portfolio is probably somewhere between 3 and 5, probably materially lower for high beta tech and growth portfolios. Buffett's holding periods is minimum decade, in most cases substantially more (major holdings AXP, KO, WFC,). I can't imagine what assumptions you use to get his portfolio to fit your model. It makes no sense. Sure volatility and beta matter..............., especially for young turks and masters of Universe types, 2 and 20 crowd who play that game for that bonus every quarter, and sell it to the even more ignorant pension funds. But as history and WEB proves (and you don't); long term consistent returns (on capital and equity) will produce better results. The voting and weighing machine analogy is most appropriate here

In Bid To Catch Competitors, Morgan Stanley Will Buy 20% of Avenue Capital

MS' deal to buy Front Point (announced afterwards) tops that $400 mill to buy fund managing $5.5 bill or a price (gulp) 7% of assets. You do the math, but if Texas Instrument calculator is correct ,mutual fund manger Legg Mason which runs some $875 billion and houses legendary manager Bill Miller is quoted at $13 bill (or under 2% of assets) again. Ok he probably won't beat the S&P this year, though his 4 responsible underperfomers he mentioned YHOO, GOOG, AMZN and Interactive corp are playing catchup quickly. And even acctg for MS/Front point synergies, exceedingly generous fee structures, the magic wand they give to hedge fund commuters on their way to Greenwich, Ct, you need to make heroic assumptions about growth in assets (inflows and incremental returns). Can anybody say "add leverage" funded by none other than MS, who, in return, will get commisons, fees. How many people work in that joint by the way? As they say in Cramerica, ring the register.