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kid1112000

kid1112000
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  • Bellatrix Exploration - Attempting To Do More With Less [View article]
    At end of Q3 it was $400M + $70M working capital deficiency = $470M.
    + bought about $100M of assets in December = $570M.
    I don't imagine they were free cash flow positive, so $570M may be an optimistic number.
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Exploration - Attempting To Do More With Less [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply!

    I believe they will hit between $100-$200M cash flow this year. They will plow this all back into their plant and drills.

    They have about $600M of debt, or say 3-6X cash flow.

    I feel like this is pretty levered? I am sure they can sell stuff or take down capex to pay down debt. I'm just not sure if the equity is cheap enough to compensate for the risk that they are simply too levered.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Exploration - Attempting To Do More With Less [View article]
    Why would you say this is a better way to bet than the other Canadian E&P companies?

    I'm doing some research as well, but I'm not as confident that this is the safest or bet with most upside.

    Cheers
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6 Plus A Star, ASP To Rise [View article]
    agree
    Jan 26, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6 Plus A Star, ASP To Rise [View article]
    regulated utility being assigned a higher multiple than a consumer electronics company? blasphemy!
    Jan 26, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP, Inc. Finally Falls Closer To Fair Value. Ownership Structure Still A Concern [View article]
    I would argue that valuing this company on quarterly earnings is precisely wrong. You are taking all of the costs of development without any offsetting revenues from those developments. Now, if you are bearish on housing and believe that they will not be able to sell any of the homes that they are building, then your process would make sense. But if you believe that housing will generally improve in their operating regions, then you are being overly conservative.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Apple: The Important Details For iPad Event [View article]
    I would be more interested to see what negative events you think are not priced into the stock. Have you considered those at all?
    Oct 15, 2014. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Undervalued? [View article]
    Actually it's a bit lower than September 2012 as they have repurchased 15% of their shares since that time.
    Oct 14, 2014. 07:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPads And Tablet Growth [View article]
    Agree - most people I know are waiting for the iPad with fingerprint sensor.
    Apr 29, 2014. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    I like all these points very much. I'm not sure I think one needs to "short" the other companies. But I agree with what you said. Funny to think but here are the key themes that used to spell "doom" for the company:

    - fierce competition from Android (Apple picked up share in developed markets)

    - fierce competition in EM (Apple had massive YoY growth this quarter)

    - Margins (Apple margins were highest since 2012)

    - Telcos squeeze (Apple margins were highest since 2012)

    - Tim Cook (Apple had best March quarter ever)

    I'm sure there were a few more. And just wait what happens when people figure out that Apple has been innovating all along!
    Apr 29, 2014. 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Is Selling; Frontier Is Buying; Who's Right? [View article]
    Is this message for real?

    First, Stephenson started from the bottom, doing basic network repairs. You can easily look it up.

    Second, if your husband works for AT&T in CT, then he's probably now part of Frontier, and it doesn't really matter what you think of AT&T going forward, right?

    Third, shouldn't you be thinking about Frontier's next steps? Also, is he part of the union? If so, isn't this really a union matter?

    Cheers
    Apr 10, 2014. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    Meh, at this point with valuation so low they can repatriate foreign earnings, pay the incremental 10% tax, and still come out well ahead in the buy-back. I think they will target FCF and simply pay the repatriation tax.
    Apr 8, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    I expect they'll increase buyback significantly, potentially indicating a certain % of free cash flow that they will use for the buyback, which would be a strong statement and also really put sell-side price models into superdrive.

    It's impossible to make a price prediction at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if this actually surprises people and launches the share price to $600 (which to be fair is still nearly its all-time cheapest relative to historic valuations).
    Apr 8, 2014. 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: One Heck Of An Ark That's Prepared For The Storms Ahead [View article]
    Perhaps, but O was a much different company in 1994. 39 million shares, $10 per share, $400 million market cap, no debt, $400 million EV. CFFO $29 million, so EV / CFFO about 14 times or 7% yield. EBITDA $40 million, or EV / EBITDA 10x.

    Fast forward to today, 207 million shares, $40 per share, $9,000 million market cap, $5,000 million debt, $13,000 million EV. CFFO $500 million, so EV / CFFO about 26 times, or 4% yield. EBITDA $700 million, or EV / EBITDA of 19x.

    It's about twice as expensive, significantly more levered, and its dividend yield is about half what it was then. I'm not saying it wasn't a good investment in 1994. I'm saying it's not a good investment today.
    Apr 5, 2014. 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: One Heck Of An Ark That's Prepared For The Storms Ahead [View article]
    You'd be smart to take their advice. I wouldn't touch this one. 5% yield is not worth 50% capital loss.
    Apr 4, 2014. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
128 Comments
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