Seeking Alpha

kid1112000

kid1112000
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kid1112000's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • AT&T Is Selling; Frontier Is Buying; Who's Right? [View article]
    Is this message for real?

    First, Stephenson started from the bottom, doing basic network repairs. You can easily look it up.

    Second, if your husband works for AT&T in CT, then he's probably now part of Frontier, and it doesn't really matter what you think of AT&T going forward, right?

    Third, shouldn't you be thinking about Frontier's next steps? Also, is he part of the union? If so, isn't this really a union matter?

    Cheers
    Apr 10 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    Meh, at this point with valuation so low they can repatriate foreign earnings, pay the incremental 10% tax, and still come out well ahead in the buy-back. I think they will target FCF and simply pay the repatriation tax.
    Apr 8 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    I expect they'll increase buyback significantly, potentially indicating a certain % of free cash flow that they will use for the buyback, which would be a strong statement and also really put sell-side price models into superdrive.

    It's impossible to make a price prediction at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if this actually surprises people and launches the share price to $600 (which to be fair is still nearly its all-time cheapest relative to historic valuations).
    Apr 8 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: One Heck Of An Ark That's Prepared For The Storms Ahead [View article]
    Perhaps, but O was a much different company in 1994. 39 million shares, $10 per share, $400 million market cap, no debt, $400 million EV. CFFO $29 million, so EV / CFFO about 14 times or 7% yield. EBITDA $40 million, or EV / EBITDA 10x.

    Fast forward to today, 207 million shares, $40 per share, $9,000 million market cap, $5,000 million debt, $13,000 million EV. CFFO $500 million, so EV / CFFO about 26 times, or 4% yield. EBITDA $700 million, or EV / EBITDA of 19x.

    It's about twice as expensive, significantly more levered, and its dividend yield is about half what it was then. I'm not saying it wasn't a good investment in 1994. I'm saying it's not a good investment today.
    Apr 5 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: One Heck Of An Ark That's Prepared For The Storms Ahead [View article]
    You'd be smart to take their advice. I wouldn't touch this one. 5% yield is not worth 50% capital loss.
    Apr 4 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Slower-Growing Apple Is Still A Buy [View article]
    Agree
    Apr 2 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Different Quarter, Same Prognosis [View article]
    I agree next earnings call will come with a very, very big change to capital allocation strategy - I'm thinking something like 70% of futures free cash flows to share repurchases

    I'm not sure I see how someone who has invested in NFLX, P, FB, TWTR will move their investment to Apple stock - I just don't know the mindset of people who own those 4 names and why they would buy Apple and not go to cash
    Mar 26 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Different Quarter, Same Prognosis [View article]
    what's the source for these technicals? I'd be really curious to know!!
    Mar 26 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Best, Apple Is Trading At Fair Value [View article]
    Yep.
    Mar 20 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northrop Grumman: A Superior Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Thanks for your reply! I'm nervous its a bit too expensive now. All-time high stock price, up 80% in 1 year. Seems like it hit everyone's price targets, and now people have simply raised their price targets (lowered their standards) rather than sell.

    As I see it, it's got the following metrics:

    $2.5bn Cash from ops
    $0.6bn capex (2014)
    $1.9bn FCF
    $0.5bn dividend
    $1.4bn cash for repurchases / M&A

    $26bn market cap
    6% free cash flow yield

    I suppose people like the buy-back and think there's potential growth? I just can't figure it.
    Mar 11 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northrop Grumman: A Superior Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Why was spinning off Huntington a good thing for current shareholders? Shouldn't company be worth ~$5bn less now that they have spun off this division?
    Mar 11 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Galaxy S5 Dive Sets Up The iPhone 6 To Thrive [View article]
    What do you think the opposite side of the argument would be? i.e., why would someone sell apple right now?
    Mar 6 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Is Selling; Frontier Is Buying; Who's Right? [View article]
    Thanks for comments.

    Satellite. I'm sure that there's a transition services agreement allowing continued U-Verse video for some period of time, but long-term, I'd bet they move to satellite. I mean FTR would just use their existing satellite relationships, and drop AT&T U-Verse video all together. If you were a U-Verse customer getting video service, you would have the option to transition to DISH or whatever for a great rate.

    Anyway, cheers and thanks for a good conversation.
    Feb 21 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parrot: Accelerating Growth And Revaluation [View article]
    Any update?
    Feb 21 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Is Selling; Frontier Is Buying; Who's Right? [View article]
    U-Verse. I have same question. I expect FTR uses existing satellite relationships and drops U-Verse video product offering while keeping U-Verse high speed data.

    People. Yes, many will want to go to AT&T, which is the smart move if you're a manager of the asset seeing sold. However, you'd be surprised about the remaining. Not many will retire, I expect, and instead most will risk their luck with FTR (for the ongoing paycheck). Retirement isn't that much $$$.

    What's your view as to as to what really caused this move? Was it primarily union, regulatory, or other reasons?
    Feb 20 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
118 Comments
151 Likes