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Fogbound

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  • Back From The Brink - Why Bond Insurers Look Attractive Again [View article]
    Very useful analysis. When you write "made whole," you should explain that the insurers' commitment cannot be accelerated. In other words, they are only responsible for maintaining the interest payments until the bonds come due, which is when they make the bondholders "whole."

    Also, if you are confident about these insurers, why not pile into the Puerto Rico bonds insured by them? And also the Chicago bonds insured by them? Those PR bonds give a great return.
    Jun 20, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting On The Wells Fargo Dividend Bandwagon [View article]
    And then there's the Wells Fargo 7.5% preferred, with its max fed tax rate of 15%. Evidently lots of folks still don't realize that this is an ironclad non-callable preferred. At yesterday's closing price, this is a 6.55% yield, 5.57% after tax. Even better, it's going ex in about 20 days. Stripping on that dividend gives you a yield of 6.9%, 5.87% after tax. To me, it looks like the cheapest yield play without credit risk out there.
    Aug 9, 2013. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Protein: Even More Trouble Ahead [View article]
    I have no positions in Omega. As a saltwater fisherman, I have witnessed Omega's devastation of the marine environment. There is a growing movement of environmentalists and anglers to limit if not halt Omega's overfishing of the most important fish on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. You should do your homework on this.
    Aug 8, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Protein: Even More Trouble Ahead [View article]
    Today's Wall Street Journal (August 7) article "What's Killing the Dolphins?" reported about alarming toll of sick and dead dolphins washing up on the East and Gulf coasts. The most obvious cause is the collapse of the food essential to dolphin survival: Atlantic and Gulf menhaden. There is no mystery about why the menhaden population is collapsing: Omega Protein is fishing itself out of existence while destroying the marine ecology on both coasts.
    Here's the latest NOAA info on the menhaden catch (which is Omega's business; the catch is overwhelmingly Omega's catch):
    http://1.usa.gov/13jNJpy
    Aug 7, 2013. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The sell-off in Omega Protein (OME -10.5%) accelerates, with losses now in the double-digits. Sidoti cut the shares to Neutral from Buy yesterday. The company says it will report Q2 earnings on August 6. SA contributor LongShort 101, whose previous piece sent the stock reeling, was out last week with an update, noting that Peruvian fish meal prices were falling fast. He also raised concerns about OME's menhaden landings catch. [View news story]
    The New York Times today (July 23) reported on the comprehensive study suggesting a link between high Omega 3 fatty acids and prostate cancer. Whether there's any cause/effect relationship is not known. However, Omega Protein's fish oil capsules were tested by an independent laboratory in England and shown to have significant levels of toxins. Unlike Omega Protein, all other manufacturers of fish oil capsules have voluntarily had their product tested, and the tests show that they all meet California's standards of purity, standards that are far more stringent than those of the FDA.
    Omega has a lot of other dirty linen, including numerous penalties for pollution of the Chesapeake.I have no position in Omega.
    Jul 23, 2013. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Protein: Even More Trouble Ahead [View article]
    The stock of menhaden in the Atlantic has been declining at a truly alarming rate. Once there were over one hundred companies fishing for menhaden in the Atlantic. They practically all fished themselves out of existence. Omega took over the few survivors and it is now following them into extinction by wildly overfishing the remaining stock. Anyone interested in understanding the present situation and its history should read the book "The Most Important Fish in the Sea: Menhaden and America."
    The dead zone in the Gulf is rapidly expanding because of excess nutrients from the entire Mississippi basin and because of the loss of menhaden that otherwise would be filter feeding on the algae whose blooms cause the dead zone. The switch from soybeans to corn plantings--thanks in part to our insane ethanol legislation--is aggravating the problem (corn requires high nitrogen supplementation whereas soybean fixes nitrogen in the soil).
    So, yes, anyone who is long OME should be thinking short term. Sooner or later, OME will prove to be a catastrophe for itself as well as for the marine environment.
    Jul 16, 2013. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Protein (OME -12.8%) posts double-digit losses two days after reaching an agreement with the U.S. Attorney's Office to pay a total of $7.5M in fines to resolve issues related to two violations of the Clean Water Act. Perhaps helping to tip sentiment to the downside today is an article from SA contributor LongShort101 who says the company's EBITDA could be cut in half once the depleted supply of Peruvian fish meal recovers. [View news story]
    Omega has a long history as a serial polluter, especially in the Chesapeake Bay. A more dire problem is the Omega is fishing itself out of existence, especially on the Atlantic coast. It is the last survivor of the hundred companies on that coast that have been devastating the menhaden species ever since the 1870s. For a full history, analysis, and prognosis, read the book "The Most Important Fish in the Sea: Menhaden and America" by H. Bruce Franklin."
    Jun 6, 2013. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Buy Advance Auto Parts [View article]
    One interesting development. Shareholders are being encouraged by the board to vote in favor of eliminating a supermajority voting requirement and in favor of another proposal to allow 25% of shareholders to call special meetings. Both of these would make a takeover easier.
    May 3, 2013. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar (CAT -1.2%) slips today after Credit Suisse lowered its 2013 EPS guidance to $7 from $7.77, and its price target from $123 to $110. The firm cites declining optimism for an improvement in mining orders, for which it had earlier priced into its forecast. [View news story]
    A target of $110 sure makes the January 2014 $87.50 p
    ut a great sell.
    Apr 13, 2013. 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Caterpillar A Good Stock To Buy? [View article]
    Unlike CAT, JOY is mainly a manufacturer of mining equipment, with its main concentration being on equipment for coal mining, an industry under long-term threats.
    Mar 21, 2013. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mylan (MYL) acquires Agila Specialties, a developer, manufacturer and marketer of high-quality generic injectable products, from Strides Arcolab for $1.6B in cash. The acquisition significantly expands MYL's global injectables platform and will provide entry into new high-growth geographic markets. The acquisition is expected to close in Q4 of 2013 should be immediately accretive to earnings. Shares +1.8% AH. [View news story]
    This should be a big help in the expansion of the EpiPen market.
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Storm Brewing For Copper Mining Stocks? [View article]
    This year Rio Tinto is beginning production from what may become the copper mine with the largest production in the world, its Oyu Togloi in Mongolia, just dozens of miles from China. (Oyu Togloi will also be a major source of gold, BTW.)
    Feb 24, 2013. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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