Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pauliene's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    today is sunday and the markets open Monday . time to reflect.
    I would like an explanation from anyone who reads our little column about mankind, the stock.
    explain to me, if I understand, a few issues about this stock we have invested our money with.
    the company has a factory with costs from employees , heat , lights, water, and depreciation of the plant itself, plus add in the kitchen sink to the costs.along with the insulin cost itself.
    all of this is added to the price to deliever product to a joint venture.
    this cost or overhead is absorbed by the joint venture..not sanofi itself.
    so if the joint venture had sales at end of march of seven million dollars and mankind claimed one million dollars in sales.
    the third figure is 20 million spent by the joint venture for that time period.

    at end of june what is mankind going to say is their sales?
    at end of june what is joint venture dollar sales
    and, then sanofi is going to report dollar sales
    at end of june joint venture is going to report profit or loss for the time frame.

    so we get four numbers to look at?
    mankind reports 5 million in sales
    then joint venture could report 35 million sales
    then joint venture could report 25 million spending to produce a loss
    then sanofi, using this example, reports ????sales
    the joint venture loss is the difference between posted price and they actually receive hard dollars after advertising, discounts, give aways, samples and so forth.
    so how do we spin these numbers to make sense of them????
    is the street measurement mankind sales??
    the joint venture sales number??
    or, the joint venture bottom line number??
    it sure is not sanofi that is involved in these numbers .
    as I see it mankind will have passed on to the joint venture each and every cost to deliever product to the joint venture. mankind will have no profit or loss with the entire plant and its entire costs.
    now, the joint venture has all these costs plus their overhead of management and sales, and you add it all up.
    joint venture sales are measured at , say, 3000 dollars a year per patient.
    then sales are 3000 and the bottom line changes..
    take out discounts
    take our over head
    take out taxes
    take out everything to produce sales
    net, net is ??
    we had 175 million times two to cover this over the years.
    so 350 million is available to the joint venture before this game is over
    would like some ideas or suggestion
    fellow posters, your stage

    Jul 5, 2015. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    js888 you bring up a good point.
    doctor says dispense as written ..and, it can not be changed to private label or to a different product.
    yes, a call to the doctor and he gives permission it is changed.
    now, are you saying a patient must accept an inferior product or not have insurance coverage for the prescription?
    if so, and you get more ill, or die, the lawyers will have a field day.
    insurance company will not pay for afrezza is that your point?
    this formulary is a list of covered drugs?
    so the formulary just says, a product is not covered because ???
    just wondering
    anyone please explain this exactly what the discussion is
    Jul 5, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    I understand up to a point.
    if its name brand versus private label, it takes a note or initial by doctor saying, medically required for the name brand
    most plans substitute private label
    that said,
    if it is insulin then you van argue, the cheapest one in the market place. needles pens no insurer cares
    however, let the doctor say, this does this and that does that, the patient gets what the doctor wants.
    government and medicare or any state plan and they pay as its not their money
    talking bout a company sponsored plan> okay , then its the cheapest one for the buck.
    afrezza is not a comparison between insulin by itself. ask danny, or john, or Robert among others and, they know the value differences.
    so again, the insurance company puffs and puffs as to why they are the best and cheapest, and then pass on all costs.
    wonder how my novel is progressing?
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    I do have a question about afrezza.
    anyone going to a doctor and asks for any medicine and the doctor says, sure and writes it for the patient.
    leaving out those that get you high, or out of your mind, or even a drug addict.
    I know for fact, pick a medicine?? not working?? fine, here"s another one to try till we get the one that works.
    analgesic? we got a dozen or more
    my point is , what harm does the doctor or patient have if the patient tries afrezza, says it works with tests to verify, and we are all happy.
    the doctor can look up in their medical area on their computer and know everything as they half listen to the patient.
    afrezza information is there for any and all doctors to read and evaluate for themselves.
    suddenly the game seems to be the doctor suddenly is not looking at the time clock so as to see more patients each day, or scheduling more tests to cover being sued and to collect a fee for each test.
    suddenly the doctor is not calling their stock broker
    suddenly, this doctor is listening to a patient>??
    when did this all start about concern about afrezza being so ??
    why even insurance companies that pass on all costs plus the kitchen sink to the ultimate payer cares?
    please tell me how all this concern suddenly appeared
    I get it, a prescription is a note to the pharmacist saying in latin....
    I got mine, now you get yours<G>
    really, when did these doctors get so involved in providing a prescription to a patient ?? I must have missed them making house calls
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    its not 160 million. it was broken out into four parts
    they converted most of this debt.
    as I recall, 40 million is available as debt to mankind if mankind chooses to borrow this money. they have not and do not plan to borrow any more from anyone.
    back to business...
    I do not believe in charts or candlesticks or any other tea leaves..
    that said, the only true measure , and it works to a large degree..
    I believe that you can measure that when the 10 day moving average moves above the twenty day moving average, your stock is going up for about three days in time,
    as long as this ten is above the twenty,,the stock rises in price,
    use twenty and fifty day moving average. okay, but the shorter the time frame being measured, the more accurate the movement in price,
    so mankind must break the twenty day down movement to the upside to be convincing a move.
    then, if it dips, all bets start again ..
    also, at any given up level, stock price must take three days to build a new base.
    problem with this stock is the shorts are so involved that they tend to destabilize the true direction and what is happening at any given time.
    example.. they covered ten million r twenty million shares in last short report and stock did not go up in price.
    that meant the market makers are into the game with shorters as partners.
    market makers determine the price at all times .
    no ifs or makers create the price and the movement.
    remember the old days of 1/8 or 12 cents a buy or sell?
    they were called two dollar brokers as they allways bought or sold eight hundred shares to make a hundred commissions were paid by brokers.
    last gem for the day..
    magazines to a targeted market create bigger results than those to a mass market..the readers are motivated and looking for something, anything that helps.
    so we will see results to the magazines as an on going move in about three weeks..
    after that it will grow more quickly as as time passes the patient is seen by the doctor and switched to afrezza.
    look for about five to seven million in mankind sales and about 40 million for joint venture sales.
    please mankind,, report your factory unit sales monthly like others in your type business do.
    mankind hire a public relations person and stay involved in reporting what is happening with this company. stop playing games and pretending you are uncle sam and just trust us.
    do not play you know best..its all a secret,
    everyone in the business knows how many units you sell to every major account in the country.
    any sales rep can go to any wholesaler, drug chain , and get unit sales for every one in the business, I did it for years. no one ever said movement numbers is a no, no..
    so every sales rep, every competitor, every drug exec knows what is selling and who is losing share of market except for mankind shareholders.
    this posting today is to give some flavor to dannys article, jeffs readership, and johns thinking about his investment
    Jul 3, 2015. 08:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    eight dollars is the magic number because the shorts start to lose serious money at that point.
    remember, a dollar move on the stock is about 110 million dollars profit or loss to them.
    giving the bond holders an extension is terrible for stockholders. it means 14 and 9 or a total of 23 million shares remain short.
    make them cover this 23 million shares and the stock price will soar.
    remember, the bond is all ready shorted by the bond owner ,
    no one owns the bond as a bond. its all about greed.
    even if mankind paid out the 100 million dollars which they have on hand in cash, it will not change anything for the company except have them grow up to be adults.
    that means create value for the stock price and do not let the product be the leader.
    we all know that afrezza will be a winner over time.
    now to sanofi.. they have done a terrible job of introduction of this product.
    they know better and they let politics get in the way.
    what happened is, they decided not to let the past top exec get credit for afrezza by holding off any actions till the field was cleared.
    now they can start and claim all the credit.
    to run magazines is a cheap method of advertising . it is not done as the lead of an advertising campaign.
    spare me how to sell the public and/or doctors. I have been there, done that , and all ready know the results.
    big dealers, big spenders step up to the plate and hit home runs.
    start national advertising and you create the market.
    create demand, create need, convince the public on all the features and benefits, create motivating briefs and we have a winner.
    social media, talkers to talkers ???
    forget it all..just spend a few million of dollars like you mean it.
    buy the market, remember, sanofi has locked up ad space at low rates all ready available to the parent corporation.
    remember sanofi has marketing departments all ready on hand
    you built a better mouse trap now advertise like you mean it.
    wanted to wait six months because you are big shots giving the doctor time to be acquaintd with afrezza ?? fine six months is up
    now play ball like a major league company.
    advertising later in the year?? stupid move.
    wait? why not wait five more years??
    if you want to be a player then sanofi must act like it wants to be a player
    the joke is, it is easy to make afrezza a house hold name .
    the plant is there,the insurance companies are paying,and approved the pricing
    sanofi even claims they have a sales force with district, regional, area, and zone managers.
    why they even claim to have a vice president for sales, maybe a vice president for advertising , and one for merchandising, and distribution.
    want to add in a few major account managers. what did I leave out?? o yes the mail room
    you do get my point !!!
    sanofi, get with it and start to act like afrezza is one of your products and not a step sister
    Jul 3, 2015. 12:21 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSA: Afrezza Is NOT Exubera [View article]
    two excellent articles today. gentlemen, I say "cheers" to your rational thinking and reasoning. mankind will be a big winner in the market place.
    that said, I notice you do not talk about the stock price!!
    the stock price is set by many different rules and regulations of wall street at the same time. lets look at a few of the many games we are playing, all at the same time.
    this stock is influenced by its low price. from say, five to ten area. low prices tend to allow shorting in large numbers and allows games to run .
    the largest stockholder really does not care about the stock price as he knows over time it will go up and his charities will bless him for the stock they get.
    current management? they get millions in salaries and stock options for pennies on the dollar and play the game for what they can get, for as long as they can .
    that leaves the street and us little players.
    we have no power and nothing we do will make the price rise or decline.
    that said, it leaves the big players..a million shares or more. about 212 are in the mankind game, plus some other funds or institutions. who knows for sure..
    so the big boys bought in and with us we all have about 540 million shares.
    however, we have only 408 million shares in play at any given time,
    so its shorting that is the problem.
    what will make them cover? nothing as they have very deep pockets and wlil hold till we see 8 area. over 8 they panic.
    what will create the steps to get to 8??
    the street has to perceive the game plan which to date is murkey at best.
    this management has not a clue as to how to get the stock price higher.
    magazines are nothing but small potatoes in the world of pharmaceuticals.
    we have 175 million times two available over a few years to spend and they are spending peanuts.
    they need television advertising to force the public to demand afrezza from their doctors.
    this silylness of a cheap machine for doctors to purchase is so stupid I only repeat it because it was used as an excuse.
    these doctors earn how much per year? plus 401 and other goodies and expense accounts and everything that is not nailed down and some claim they believe doctors are crying they are hungry with two loafs of bread under their arms?
    back to reality..
    today we dropped like something had happened.. maybe it did.
    suppose they plan to extend the convertible notes for two more years. same terms as conversion rate and interest rate?
    I bet they even give the bank the extras two years of that free 9 million shares to keep shorting.
    why not, who loses besides you and me??
    more in my next novel,,
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza: Another Look At The Early Adopters [View article]
    could we get a copy of the ads and articles on this website concerning afrezza in july/august issue??
    pages 21 and 22
    and a three page ad??
    am I allowed to name the magazine for clarification??
    Jun 27, 2015. 09:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza: Another Look At The Early Adopters [View article]
    to continue my story for Saturday...
    the nine million shares are to be returned to mankind, they were lent for free.
    there is no tie in with converting or non converting
    9 million shares returned to company
    if 9 plus 14 equals 23 million less shares outstanding, what effect would that have on the stock price?
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza: Another Look At The Early Adopters [View article]
    to add to the pot as it stirs;
    at 580 area and if we want, say 680 to seven dollars area , what is needed?
    now till mid august? well, how about ?????
    reporting for june qtr??
    reporting some advertising in media??
    reporting some reactions to advertising??
    reporting that july sales number were in range of that to that??
    reporting that the company is projecting sales of??
    saying anything that gets stock to seven bucks a share for bond converting for shares
    add in 9 million more shares out there for free
    well, what then ??
    add in television advertising
    add in users saying it works
    add in ??
    lets think and see into the future as to our investment in mankind
    remember I am long nov and jan options and wish to win
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza: Another Look At The Early Adopters [View article]
    Saturday morning and all is well. we traded this week like nothing was happening.
    one day we are up five cents, and the next we drop ten cents.
    we get a major presentation and 25 slides
    we get a new script count
    we get 20 million shorts covering
    all of this and no stock movement?
    if at end of march mankind sold one million dollars of product to the joint venture
    and, recorded seven million dollars in sales by sanofi????
    what should we expect at end of june qtr. to show in sales and dollars??
    54000 samples are sold product from mankind to the joint venture as it cost money for product and labor and factory cost. add some regular product, and it all adds up one million dollars.
    if we now know that may was 42 per cent more in dollars than april....then what was april?
    assumption. just thinking..
    april 1 million dollars
    may 1.5 million dollars
    june is 2 million dollars
    total sales are about five million dollars at factory or mankind dollars
    that implies about 35 million dollars in joint venture sales in dollars for the qtr.
    times four is about 140 million for the year with no growth to speak of.
    take advertising , take adcom, take satisfied users and add it all in a pot and , we could see over 200 million dollars projected sales for the year as a minimum.
    the magic number to be profitable to mankind was implied to be about from 20 to say, 30 million dollars in sales by the venture.
    so, over 40 million dollars in sales per year , or make it ten million a qtr we are on the right direction
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Vs. Bears: For The Fate Of MannKind [View article]
    Friday morning and the market is yet to open,
    I see a move to six area and, a battle will begin.
    the shorting game is over for the shorts.
    like john says, high interest costs
    other good news
    once we move over six they will get nervous.
    its when they started to cover that is scaring the players.
    the time to cover was in four area
    they should have covered in low five area
    over six and they have a problem
    over six and we test 650 to seven area
    over seven and panic sets in
    six weeks to bond issue date.
    other thought..
    if sanofi sells insulin to mankind then, that means they fulfilled original contract and source of goods.
    watch those rx numbers as even if I disagree, they seem to be of interest.
    I see them as false as the big players do not report in those numbers.
    all drug companies and insurance companies went up due to supreme court decision
    what if afrezza ever got noticed
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Vs. Bears: For The Fate Of MannKind [View article]
    shorting is a tough business and when ,or why, or it they cover, is easy to explain only after the fact.
    so lets look at the slides and hear the presentation from yesterday
    I heard a lot of positives
    I saw the slides
    my take?
    they are not concerned about the bond issue as they believe initial advertising will pop up sales
    I do believe advertising is a great tool to use to gain sales
    in business, its not the initial sale that is important, its the reodering that shows you are right.
    they have 120 million in cash.
    they talk oversea sales
    they talk sanofi for insulin
    they talk its a very profitable item
    they talk??
    how does we all get this satock to seven area so we can all be happy""
    Jun 25, 2015. 08:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Launching MannKind's Afrezza: Sanofi's 4 Laws Of Success [View article]
    Robert , john,
    several interesting events took place yesterday.
    with massive trading we dropped about 10 million shares in the covering of shorting.
    heavy volume covered them as did a swing from 4 1/2 to about, was it seven area then we dropped back to 585 area
    well, if they bought , it had to be willing sellers , and those wanting out of the stock.
    I am now positive it will take real news to move this stock, not just a promise
    of sales or events,
    bask to the conference yesterday...
    not sure what I heard;
    they will use sanofi insulin ?
    if so, that means they use what they contracted for, and need more supply. over time??
    if every dollar of insulin equals seven dollars of joint venture sales?
    then they talked about high profit margins and the ability to turn profitable with small increase in volume??? is that accurate??
    then they talk about new partners, new products, a company within a company of 35 dedicated workers doing what???
    lots of pickings with this chicken, or is it a duck?
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Vs. Bears: For The Fate Of MannKind [View article]
    I picked eight dollars because everyone at that point has a profit
    at that point , two points is about 300 million dollars minus for shortie
    I like that number
    pick nine or ten, I agree!!!
    shorting against the box does not apply with shortie and this house of cards.
    no one buys and sell the same stock except if they want some sort of a roll over from one year to the next..just remember about the wash sale rules
    remember 31 days? my good uncle sam wants all his goodies. pay taxes or else.
    back to shorting
    the number of days involved means nothing.
    its not even an indicator.
    what it is, is a play with simple investors.
    all that really counts is number of shares short against either total outstanding, or, the float..
    take your pick
    small daily trading..means many days to cover
    lots of trading volume and shortie days are fewer
    so what??
    after market closes I look for move from 131 million , I like 150 million because it is an even number.
    also , 19 million in ten trading days says piggies are at play
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment