Seeking Alpha

pauliene

pauliene
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pauliene's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • MannKind Corporation: Back To The Fundamentals [View article]
    I believe you gave a great concert of this product.
    some items of interest. they have convertible bonds, conversion price in the five to six area, that convert or are to be paid back by the company.
    I assume since they are in the money they will and are being converted.
    we are talking about 100 million in bonds.that will reduce debt
    then, al is owed about 100 million or less, that too should be considered being paid back
    all this leads to reduced debt.
    also, once . please explain if I am wrong, once you change the delievery system from what ever the product to alfreeza delievery, you get new patent protection and acceptability with the fda.
    again, did they sign an exclusive with Sanofi for the system, or, is the company free to use this delievery system for other products??
    thanks
    Aug 20 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake -5% following disappointing production guidance [View news story]
    lets see if I understand this sell off correctly
    natural gas hits new high for last few years
    and oil is about 96 dollar range
    the negative was, it was so cold in dec and in January they could not get it out to market
    then they cut capital expense 20 percent from last year and will get the same production numbers with a slight increase this year
    then, since product is much higher in price, let alone if it was the same, no one sees increased dollars to the company?
    they have a shortage in numbers from the 200 million mentioned to the questioner who got them up to the billion mark.
    how difficult is it to sell a billion dollars worth of what evers, from land, to buildings to etc.?
    so as natural gas goes from two buck area to five buck area we should be seeing increased dollars?
    even the calls the puts the collars
    anyone able to figure out how much they locked into protection of prices?
    remember, sell a put is bullish
    buy a put is negative
    buy a call is optimistic sell a call is protection
    a collar? who knows for sure<G>
    me? I stay long till the dust settles
    Feb 6 11:47 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Chance Natural Gas Storage Dips Under 1 Trillion Cubic Feet [View article]
    we will hit five bucks very shortly.
    yes we will have a big draw next two weeks
    also, this gives Chesapeake a price differential from the$ 3.76 it had been receiving with their selling options, spreads, and collars for natural gas
    at this price range it has to have a major move on the bottom line numbers going forward
    what a company
    no news from them for almost three months
    no company guidance
    no activity except for the 225 million deal
    something positive has to be in the works
    Jan 24 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Set To Grow [View article]
    when will pressure build for them to revalue their natural gas from about 2 bucks last year. remember that billion dollar devaluation?
    at , say four bucks, they should be looking at the 12 month moving average and saying to us...
    I think if they up value the 12 month moving averages for natural gas we jump in valuation am I right?
    this is for their reserves in natural gas
    Jan 21 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Chance Natural Gas Storage Dips Under 1 Trillion Cubic Feet [View article]
    at last..
    I wrote this on replies for the last several weeks
    wish we knew the real story on how much is required for the system to properly function.
    I hear numbers from 1200 to 1400 as the lowest numbers
    any ideas out there ?
    Jan 21 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Storage Glut Is Over [View article]
    can you comment on the 2800 units on hand last Thursday and what it means if we get a300plus down usage this Thursday?
    at 2500 and 12weeks more of draw down.
    .would that create an interesting situation?
    ]
    Jan 15 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Bounce Back? [View article]
    it does not matter if we have cold or hotter days than last year
    it does not matter if we produce more or less natural gas
    it does matter if we have about 2800 units in storage and, if we need about 1600, as a low point to keep the system flowing.
    so its the deferential between input and subtraction from the system each week. that creates the true action.
    suppose we have 13 weeks this year of greater demand than available.
    suppose this week draw is 300.That leaves about 2500 units in
    storage.
    in 12 more weeks at 100 units a week we wind up at about 1500 to 1600 units which I believe will cause a reaction in pricing
    so its cold weather that produces more than an average draw of 100 going forward against a lower average draw of 100 units per week.
    just my opinion..
    however, over 300 this Thursday, and it will be over 300 will suddenly open up a serious discussion on availability of product. remember, we cannot just increase production if needed, like oil we are locked in by gas companies not spending excess cash to find new production, low gas prices, and other factors that lead to less product in a short time frame
    with about 12 weeks of draw,
    suppose we average 100 units per week from this week till the end of draw downs.
    2800 less 300 equals 2500
    take about 1200 out leaves 1300 at the end f the season in late ,march, early April
    Jan 14 11:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Positive Signs Emerging [View article]
    Paulo Santos...

    do you have any ideas as to the total natural gas that Canada produces that is sent to us , here in the USA.?
    also, I do believe they are shipping more thru Canada to other countries at a better price than sending it to us.
    will this nave a material effect on our production numbers ?
    thanks,
    Oct 24 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Positive Signs Emerging [View article]
    ten percent of Chesapeake energy natural gas is going to be set aside for the deal they made with that Canadian company that was suppose to be ready by Jan one..
    it was a joint deal, Chesapeake supplies the gas and they split the profits in the chemicals..
    I forget the end product,,just that it was a lot of product to be used and no ever talks about it anymore..
    Oct 24 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake moves higher after Citi upgrades shares to Buy [View news story]
    anyone have any idea why we tanked yesterday.Then, the upgrade and back to square one?
    if citi is aggressive along with Cramer on TV., then we may see 30 by next week
    of course this has meaning only to fast traders, and day traders ,and option players/
    last week we had the take over rumor and got about 17000 options traded on the 28 dollar call.They exercised most of the trades/
    then, this week looks interesting as we have, I think seven more trading days to go for earnings
    looking at their competition.. we should see a bang up qtr against last year low earnings
    also, no one ever talks about the 2 billion dollar hit for natural gas reserves devaluation last year.
    what does it take to up the evaluation when we went from 1.82 low to today's value?

    ..
    Oct 24 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily Mail says Chesapeake a rumored target of oil majors [View news story]
    some power that be, should ask the company to address rumors that affect the stock price
    if its so, a takeover, the stockholders should be informed, or, maybe, no comment would do?
    tomorrow morning , the s,e,c, should ask the question...
    now I kind of like .Maybe ,,or, no comment would do
    even better, any one seen any old company bean counters hanging out in the halls of corporate Chesapeake ?
    me, i want any kind of a buy out
    Oct 17 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy gives up drilling leases in New York [View news story]
    this will be a tremendous positive for Chesapeake.
    the leases were not producing a return,. they were not available for sale .
    after all, who would buy development rights if you could not develop on the property.
    so they give up the land, it was never developed, and meant they would have to have spent big bucks to develop the property in question.
    if Chesapeake paid in the hundreds per acre, and , the land owners think they can get thousands per acre, they can go forward.
    Chesapeake filed they sold about 3.6 billion year to august one.They have now unloaded shares in that investment and will get 85 million, plus 13 million, and get out of the 50 million dollar commitment to invest in that company. their loss? about 15 million less the profit of, say three million, plus savings of 50 million that can be used for better purposes.
    folks, read the companies federal filings and company web site and you can "gleam" a lot of information.
    Aug 7 05:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tale Of 2 American Energy Stocks [View article]
    lets see.. Friday Chesapeake tanked down about 67 cents
    today, it went down to about 2160 area, and I bought in the 22 dollar calls for this Friday
    at the close I was up about 60 percent
    tomorrow, another day, another game
    they have a presentation scheduled with a big conference group
    the market was higher overall today
    Chesapeake closed almost at the high of the day
    tomorrow, I will sell at the first down tick, my calls ..
    I anticipate a move up on and after the opening
    my point being?
    I am not trading for five years with Chesapeake. and I am buying and selling as this market will take many years to equal what is happening at this point in time
    as long as uncle Sam is supporting low interest rates and buying up all the street paper, the game is positive
    when uncle Sam starts selling , then the game is over for awhile
    Jun 3 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
    I am a Chesapeake investor,
    I own this stock to make money.
    simple.
    they do 13 billion in sales
    they owe about 12 billion in long term debt
    they write off the cost of debt in their selling prices
    they put everything they need into the pricing to determine their cost
    they owe about 4 billion to the u.s. government for taxes which is offset by capital expense, over time. its never paid to the government. just used up.
    the price of oil is about 96 bucks ,and next year they will either sell at market prices, or, lock in options.
    so the only real play is natural gas. I study this market as an investor.
    I see the one year and five year numbers on charts, look at new natural gas users, and so forth.
    my point being, at 5 to 6 million a drilling pad, no one is going to spend this kind of money to lose funds,
    so as this year goes forward, most producers have ,and are going to, cut back on spending.
    result? we will have less product going to market.
    yes, we all know about proven reserves, and wells needing hook ups.
    that is where the fun begins.
    finding oil or gas is one situation. getting it to market is another story.
    look at the top ten producers who provide the major source of natural gas. they are not spending money for natural gas, its just a bye product of the search for oil and liquids.
    watch Mexico and Canada taking large quantities of gas, gas in trucks and cars. gas in other uses such as fertilizer, etc.
    net result? we will have less product by the end of the year then most forecast.
    natural gas tanked Thursday because gamblers listened to forecast of cool weather in two weeks.
    they will buy back in to push it over four bucks very soon.
    the buyers and sellers are not really using reason, they are just gambling on rumors and being led by self dealers.
    Chesapeake sold a lot of options and locked in about 3.72 for the next few months.
    so at 3.98 it means nothing to Chesapeake
    now to Chesapeake.
    we just got several buy or upgrade recommendations we got insider buying
    we have a new president of the company
    we have several asset sales being announced shortly
    we have a stockholder meeting in June
    we will get new update numbers by then
    selling non needed assets is fine by me. they are worth what the market says is their value, not what was paid for them
    selling a non productive asset for cash is a smart move
    as to the stock price
    we are almost at the one year high
    we almost got to 23 last week before the sell off.
    interesting that we did 23 million shares in trading on Friday
    that got the new, short term buyers out as they panicked, real quick,
    the true buyers are holding for a major move up in price.
    Friday was an opportunity for the market makers to sell into the price, force it further down so they could pick up shares they needed to trade for inventory
    remember, Chesapeake is not a stock that goes up or down in price by itself. it is controlled fully by major players in the market.
    when they are ready, we will make major moves, I believe.
    I recall we would never see 19 and never go to 20 area.
    I even wrote we could never see 22 in price
    now?
    I see move in natural gas controlled by trains and truck and car switching energy sources
    I see more and new uses for natural gas
    I see companies running out of borrowing money to produce new natural gas sources
    I see consolidations and fewer players in the market
    also, watch china and Japan wanting into the natural gas game.
    we have so much money owed to china what can they do with the cash except buy natural resources. how many houses would china buy? or, even other items?
    so its a natural resource product that is needed by them
    if china said they wanted to import natural gas, our government would make them a trading partner or special exemption, in a heartbeat/
    Jun 2 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil production in Texas’ Eagle Ford shale formation rose 77% Y/Y in March, yielding more than 529K bbl/day and posting a record. The number could still go higher; February output was revised to 511K bbl/day from the preliminary report of 471K. EOG Resources (EOG) is the largest Eagle Ford leaseholder, with 639K net acres, followed by Chesapeake (CHK) and Apache (APA). [View news story]
    I would have thought today's action in Chesapeake would have at least a bunch of writers..
    we hit over 22 and closed at 22.16 and were up to 22.30 for a few minutes.
    everyone should be in the money and happy with this movement,
    as I see it we should expect some asset sales before the national stockholder meeting
    if we get to 23 by Thursday we will get more favorable news from the street as they like to tell us, after the fact, that the stock is moving
    natural gas is holding up and so is oil
    anyone looking at the 5 day moving averages versa. the 50 day moving averages and see any direction?
    May 28 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
146 Comments
122 Likes