Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
lets see if Monday is an interesting day.. new president of Chesapeake should be worth some move natural gas going to $4.13 at about 6 am. this morning possible permit to export natural gas by the administration a lot on the table as I see it that looks positive for the stock just my thoughts. if the market is over 15000, and, natural gas is very much higher than last year, Syria scaring oil traders, and add to the mix that Chesapeake is serious about selling assets, then, add a new leaser for Chesapeake who is joining them as he sees a future with the company got to be worth more than two cents!!
Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
its 8 p.m. and natural gas is about 4.12 and was as high s 4.14 in past few hours.
looks like a 20 cent move in 15 minutes on Friday and this evening when the markets are really closed except for professionals with access to trading. if the big move is about next January for the new export facility to gear up, does that mean futures go higher, then current should move up also. I find it strange when the futures are higher than the current months. in that case if the natural gas fund sells and buys every month, they are selling low and buying higher.Is that correct folks?
Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
for an investment decision could we talk about three issues;
the decision ,about the time the market closed Friday.,To allow an exporter of natural gas by a government agency from an area in Texas.
next the downgrade by the big outfit saying Chesapeake has a continuing need for major capital expense.Does not all gas companies need capital , or, just Chesapeake due to its vast holdings?
then we got that big investor who just bought in making the announcement Friday
so we get the good, bad, and the unknown news all stirring into the pot.
should be interesting Monday.Bye the way, natural gas jumps up in price Friday after the 98 jump in storage.
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
got another question for anyone who knows. if natural gas is valued using a twelve month moving average by the sec. to determine value.. and Chesapeake likes to bring up the ten year average value as a determining factor.. since we took a three billion, non cash hit last year for down revision value of natural gas , can we assume that if natural gas were about 2.17 last year first qtr and went to about, say, 2.45 a unit. recently... when will they revise up if we go to 3.50 area. or 3.62 area, let alone hit four bucks this year. each month that we are higher in price than last year, will it at some point move up the value of the asset? is it possible to see them revise up the reserves value? just a thought, thanks
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
wall street and Chesapeake energy.. we should all realize that we do not affect the price of this stock. we are small players even if we combined all of us together. so, its the 500 or so big institutions, mutual funds, and other big players, plus the market makers that create the price of this stock. that said, they upgrade, downgrade, even tell us on television if its a buy or sell. Friday we broke twenty and closed at 21.15 which to some , means we are five day moving average over the 20 or 50 day moving average, or we watch other technical indicators. the point being, over 20 and we are in the twenties, under twenty and we are in the teens. big difference to wall street. so, Monday we either move up and new interest develops in the stock, or, we go down and the struggle begins again to move higher. if they announce something positive Monday, and, someone else were to recommend the stock, who knows? I believe money was buying Thursday and Friday for a reason. I have no idea of who or why. not important to us we just want the stock to rise in price. now if, I say if the stock rises this week, it means some group is thinking positive about the stock and it will create a feeling of hold for even higher prices. it we tank, you know how it plays/
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
a great article that says it all. now to facts as I see them.. the court case.. the bank is appealing the judge's decision.. that means they have to get a higher court to determine that the judge in the case ruled improperly. that is very difficult to do unless you got a lot of proof. and, we know this is a simple case. the ruling was a decision by the judge, the appeal is not the decision, but that he violated a rule. so, since the appeal does not say that the appeals court should stop the process, rather it allows the bond issue to continue, it means we will see the redemption tomorrow take place, unless.. a bond seller decided not to participate and take their money. in that case, the interest stops going to the owner, and the bond sits idle, having no value other than the face value, paying no interest. the way forward then, is to get a appeals court to rule the judge was wrong, rule a new trial, and, , or, decide in favor of the bank. then, it would also have to rule that the money paid to bondholders is, somehow, made good on the bond, and other nonsense to numerous to go thru. bottom line, the appeal is going no place and would require the appeals court not to rule on the case, but, to rule on the judge's decision. too complicated.. it will die as a case to go forward. also, since the bank does not own the bonds, is just the transfer agent in a sense, they cannot decide for holders to get their money. what a waste of energy
lets see if I got this fairy tale correct. Chesapeake energy spends 5 billion dollars a year to develop new wells and to increase in the ground product. they have to scrimp and borrow, or, sell assets to maintain this movement. now other companies do not have this problem. they just drill and find the money to build reserves in thin air. so other companies go up in price and Chesapeake is the ugly duckling. well the wolf said, they could always sell calls and lock in production over four bucks and ranging to almost five in future months. they could even sell oil options going out in time. no matter, in the first qtr they got pittance for their natural gas. just read their filing. this qtr they should get at least $3.62 for natural gas.. if so, they should change their outlook to become the belle of the ball. lets count the many asset deals they have done this year. on average it seems., they got 40 million here, and 100 million there, and 83 million over there, and 400 million from last years held back monies. I almost forgot the 1.2 billion joint venture. how much has it added up to? remember, they plan 400 million to spend for land / I got a better idea, why don't they just buy the land from themselves? they spent 35 million for land in the first qtr? wonder why, unless? now they own ten million shares of a company that is convertible at 15.80 a share, or thereabouts, yet the stock is about 13.50 at the latest look.this cost 150 million dollars. now as to debt. they promised 9.6 billion last December. suddenly its over 12 billion. that's addition for you. they were suppose to do subtraction. now they promise over four billion in assets sold ,and the sales go to reduce debt. it this the good fairy telling us this or the ugly duckling? Chesapeake must decide, tell us stockholders the total debt, tell us as they pay it down, keep a tally sheet that wall street can understand, stop these one time multi million dollar, payouts , and get back to reality.
Chesapeake Energy: A Timely Investment [View article]
just for investors if one really watches this stock you will see we are in a pattern of hitting about $19.00 on the low and selling off at 19.90 area. maybe as high as twenty really look at the volume. with heavy volume we move up or down fifty cents then we reverse . what does it mean? it means we are in play and no really can figure out the purpose of the trading. if it were real sellers we would be at 16 and, real buyers at about 22 to 24 area nope, we just spin , back and forth someone is buying, someone supports this stock, and, yes , we do have sellers shorts can not make money selling short in this trading range .. they need a high price, they sell into it, then the stock drops with Chesapeake, we sell down for no real reason, today before the gas report we hit the daily high, within three minutes it dropped to about 19 bucks I am not convinced they bought based on that weekly report, then sold as they did not like the report
Chesapeake Energy: A Timely Investment [View article]
so we are back to the price of natural gas.. if they got about 2.17 at the bottom of the market, then we sure have to get 3.62 for natural gas gong forward because that is the price they locked up about 50 percent of product. we are getting 76 bucks for oil. thats a great price in this market now, if we do not have to give 50 million for another exit of a CEO if we do not have to pay about 60 million, or more for employees leaving or retiring if we can sell that clean energy stock which we own about ten million shares if we can stop buying anyone's land for which they spent 45 million thru march with 400 million in their budget. if they can stop ding silly things, then, maybe we can get this stock to rise in price we have to wait out the court decision on the bonds which have a potential savings of about 100 million we have to close on some small deals and tell the market when we do so we have to explain why four billion is our low point of needed cash, and why over that, the money is to dedicated to debt reduction what did I leave out> o yes, is there really going to be a new CEO or, will we give it to the loyal leaders we now have in place?
A Look At Chesapeake And Range Earnings: Why Are They Hedging Now? [View article]
just wondering... what was the price they received last year for the march qtr ,on average, for natural gas? then, what was the price they received, on average for this year march qtr? now its over four bucks, ranging from 4.25 to 4.45 depending on each month. well, did Chesapeake from their reporting score card get market prices for their natural gas? for this June qtr what sort of price will they get? I can not figure this out, as natural gas rises, they seem to get a lot less than the market prices? what am I missing in this area?
Chesapeake Energy: As Operating Performance Improves, Debt Remains A Worry [View article]
you have reported exactly how the game is being played. this stock does not deserve to trade 14 million shares a day without a major move up or down. shorts, longs, option players all participate. however, this stock is not that bad. their problem seems to be the capital cost of 5.5 billion a year to drill. well, cut back to core drilling of about three billiion, keep selling off assets and they will creep out of the hole they are in. they have to place the cost of drilling or capital expense into their regulat pricing like others do. they cannot fund 4 to 6 billion a year without having the csh to do so. yes, they capture fture profits by drilling and increasing reserves, but, their problem is not reserves, that they have, its true cash to reduce debt. suddenly, if i understand them..they have two billion and need about two billion more ..they say, anything over four billion goes to rediuce debt. how can that be, unless they plan to really spend down to five billion, raise four billion total and the other billion is either cash flow or from profits. then, over the four billion mark goes to debt. i believe this is a great long term play, but, short term? unbelievable moves with out reason or rhyme
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
what do we make of the founder well participation program if it went from 127 million 184 million 198 million to 63 million for the qtr ending march 30 does that mean we will see a big increase in sales? multiply everything by 40 as the participation is for 2 1/2 percentage
lease expenditures were 26 million 42 million 54 million for march ending qtr 14 million so its 14 times four, equals 56 million 56 million on equal value of 248 million for the year net cash flow goes in last three years... 100 million 141 million 144 million this qtr its 49 million equal for the year of 198 million again, that's some increase in cash flow
capital expenditures go from 242 million 457 million 434 million to 71 million times four qtrs equals 285 million that's some decrease in cash expenditures I got a feeling this all means something . well,we will tomorrow morning if its all positive me? long lots of chesapeake
Chesapeake Sells Marcellus Acreage To Southwestern At $574 Per Acre: Quick Read [View article]
Wednesday morning and we will all know what will be, will be. if you are long Chesapeake you want them to have great earnings, have a prepared story about how much the high price for natural gas means to them, bottom line. then they go into the status of asset deals. how much has been collected this year, how much looks like it will be done shortly, and how much is still on the block. they have to have a correlation between the high natural gas prices and their participation in the game. what else do we really want to know to move this stock? the entire market is hitting new highs and we are hitting the road with a spark plug missing.
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
Friday evening and the markets are closed. what is happening with Chesapeake? well, the volume is the lightest I have seen in recent months. which indicates? then, they cut 20 million from the shorts in two months with out a ripple, well, maybe a downswing. then chevron says, natural gas was their saving for the qtr and they got 3.28 , or thereabout, for the qtr we know we averages 3.62 yet, no one cares well, Wednesday morning we get to hear all the stories. are they going to complete that one billion dollar deal? was the joint venture profitable? will they tell us where the rest of the asset deals are? some big, some small, but what do they add up to? what's the deal? are they going to report great earnings from a price of 2.16 to a price of 3.62 from last year comparisons? will this stock go up again in our life time? the market hits all time highs, and we just..well,you know so folks call it now..will we go up Wednesday or flounder? can they go into a conference call and say, they are just tilting on the wind, or, do they have a master plan to move this stock up in price// this is like Portia faces life, or is it how the world turns, or, maybe all my children.. what about it? are we destined to flounder?
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
I moved the three lists to separate columns, but, the computer squeezed them together the point is 3472 -2501 ---------- 971 units were used up in 2012
3517 -1704 ----------- 1813 units used up in 2013
3088 -1797 ---------- 1291 units used up in 2013
looking out till December , do the math and it looks like its interesting
Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
new president of Chesapeake should be worth some move
natural gas going to $4.13 at about 6 am. this morning
possible permit to export natural gas by the administration
a lot on the table as I see it that looks positive for the stock
just my thoughts.
if the market is over 15000, and, natural gas is very much higher than last year, Syria scaring oil traders, and add to the mix that Chesapeake is serious about selling assets,
then, add a new leaser for Chesapeake who is joining them as he sees a future with the company
got to be worth more than two cents!!
Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
looks like a 20 cent move in 15 minutes on Friday and this evening when the markets are really closed except for professionals with access to trading.
if the big move is about next January for the new export facility to gear up, does that mean futures go higher, then current should move up also.
I find it strange when the futures are higher than the current months.
in that case if the natural gas fund sells and buys every month, they are selling low and buying higher.Is that correct folks?
Billionaire Mason Hawkins' Top Stock Picks [View article]
the decision ,about the time the market closed Friday.,To allow an exporter of natural gas by a government agency from an area in Texas.
next the downgrade by the big outfit saying Chesapeake has a continuing need for major capital expense.Does not all gas companies need capital , or, just Chesapeake due to its vast holdings?
then we got that big investor who just bought in making the announcement Friday
so we get the good, bad, and the unknown news all stirring into the pot.
should be interesting Monday.Bye the way, natural gas jumps up in price Friday after the 98 jump in storage.
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
if natural gas is valued using a twelve month moving average by the sec. to determine value.. and Chesapeake likes to bring up the ten year average value as a determining factor..
since we took a three billion, non cash hit last year for down revision value of natural gas , can we assume that if natural gas were about 2.17 last year first qtr and went to about, say, 2.45 a unit. recently...
when will they revise up if we go to 3.50 area. or 3.62 area, let alone hit four bucks this year.
each month that we are higher in price than last year, will it at some point move up the value of the asset?
is it possible to see them revise up the reserves value? just a thought, thanks
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
we should all realize that we do not affect the price of this stock.
we are small players even if we combined all of us together.
so, its the 500 or so big institutions, mutual funds, and other big players, plus the market makers that create the price of this stock.
that said, they upgrade, downgrade, even tell us on television if its a buy or sell.
Friday we broke twenty and closed at 21.15 which to some , means we are five day moving average over the 20 or 50 day moving average, or we watch other technical indicators.
the point being, over 20 and we are in the twenties, under twenty and we are in the teens. big difference to wall street.
so, Monday we either move up and new interest develops in the stock, or, we go down and the struggle begins again to move higher.
if they announce something positive Monday, and, someone else were to recommend the stock, who knows?
I believe money was buying Thursday and Friday for a reason. I have no idea of who or why.
not important to us we just want the stock to rise in price.
now if, I say if the stock rises this week, it means some group is thinking positive about the stock and it will create a feeling of hold for even higher prices.
it we tank, you know how it plays/
Chesapeake Energy Beat And Guided Higher; It's A Buy [View article]
now to facts as I see them..
the court case.. the bank is appealing the judge's decision.. that means they have to get a higher court to determine that the judge in the case ruled improperly. that is very difficult to do unless you got a lot of proof. and, we know this is a simple case. the ruling was a decision by the judge, the appeal is not the decision, but that he violated a rule.
so, since the appeal does not say that the appeals court should stop the process, rather it allows the bond issue to continue, it means we will see the redemption tomorrow take place, unless.. a bond seller decided not to participate and take their money.
in that case, the interest stops going to the owner, and the bond sits idle, having no value other than the face value, paying no interest.
the way forward then, is to get a appeals court to rule the judge was wrong, rule a new trial, and, , or, decide in favor of the bank. then, it would also have to rule that the money paid to bondholders is, somehow, made good on the bond, and other nonsense to numerous to go thru.
bottom line, the appeal is going no place and would require the appeals court not to rule on the case, but, to rule on the judge's decision.
too complicated.. it will die as a case to go forward.
also, since the bank does not own the bonds, is just the transfer agent in a sense, they cannot decide for holders to get their money.
what a waste of energy
Will Natural Gas Fall Below $4? [View article]
Chesapeake energy spends 5 billion dollars a year to develop new wells and to increase in the ground product. they have to scrimp and borrow, or, sell assets to maintain this movement.
now other companies do not have this problem. they just drill and find the money to build reserves in thin air.
so other companies go up in price and Chesapeake is the ugly duckling.
well the wolf said, they could always sell calls and lock in production over four bucks and ranging to almost five in future months.
they could even sell oil options going out in time.
no matter, in the first qtr they got pittance for their natural gas. just read their filing.
this qtr they should get at least $3.62 for natural gas..
if so, they should change their outlook to become the belle of the ball.
lets count the many asset deals they have done this year. on average it seems., they got 40 million here, and 100 million there, and 83 million over there, and 400 million from last years held back monies.
I almost forgot the 1.2 billion joint venture.
how much has it added up to?
remember, they plan 400 million to spend for land / I got a better idea, why don't they just buy the land from themselves? they spent 35 million for land in the first qtr? wonder why, unless?
now they own ten million shares of a company that is convertible at 15.80 a share, or thereabouts, yet the stock is about 13.50 at the latest look.this cost 150 million dollars.
now as to debt. they promised 9.6 billion last December. suddenly its over 12 billion. that's addition for you.
they were suppose to do subtraction.
now they promise over four billion in assets sold ,and the sales go to reduce debt.
it this the good fairy telling us this or the ugly duckling?
Chesapeake must decide, tell us stockholders the total debt, tell us as they pay it down, keep a tally sheet that wall street can understand, stop these one time multi million dollar, payouts , and get back to reality.
Chesapeake Energy: A Timely Investment [View article]
really look at the volume. with heavy volume we move up or down fifty cents then we reverse .
what does it mean? it means we are in play and no really can figure out the purpose of the trading.
if it were real sellers we would be at 16 and, real buyers at about 22 to 24 area
nope, we just spin , back and forth
someone is buying, someone supports this stock, and, yes , we do have sellers
shorts can not make money selling short in this trading range .. they need a high price, they sell into it, then the stock drops
with Chesapeake, we sell down for no real reason,
today before the gas report we hit the daily high, within three minutes it dropped to about 19 bucks
I am not convinced they bought based on that weekly report, then sold as they did not like the report
Chesapeake Energy: A Timely Investment [View article]
if they got about 2.17 at the bottom of the market, then we sure have to get 3.62 for natural gas gong forward because that is the price they locked up about 50 percent of product.
we are getting 76 bucks for oil. thats a great price in this market
now, if we do not have to give 50 million for another exit of a CEO
if we do not have to pay about 60 million, or more for employees leaving or retiring
if we can sell that clean energy stock which we own about ten million shares
if we can stop buying anyone's land for which they spent 45 million thru march with 400 million in their budget.
if they can stop ding silly things,
then, maybe we can get this stock to rise in price
we have to wait out the court decision on the bonds which have a potential savings of about 100 million
we have to close on some small deals and tell the market when we do so
we have to explain why four billion is our low point of needed cash, and why over that, the money is to dedicated to debt reduction
what did I leave out>
o yes, is there really going to be a new CEO or, will we give it to the loyal leaders we now have in place?
A Look At Chesapeake And Range Earnings: Why Are They Hedging Now? [View article]
what was the price they received last year for the march qtr ,on average, for natural gas?
then, what was the price they received, on average for this year march qtr?
now its over four bucks, ranging from 4.25 to 4.45 depending on each month.
well, did Chesapeake from their reporting score card get market prices for their natural gas?
for this June qtr what sort of price will they get?
I can not figure this out, as natural gas rises, they seem to get a lot less than the market prices?
what am I missing in this area?
Chesapeake Energy: As Operating Performance Improves, Debt Remains A Worry [View article]
shorts, longs, option players all participate.
however, this stock is not that bad. their problem seems to be the capital cost of 5.5 billion a year to drill.
well, cut back to core drilling of about three billiion, keep selling off assets and they will creep out of the hole they are in.
they have to place the cost of drilling or capital expense into their regulat pricing like others do. they cannot fund 4 to 6 billion a year without having the csh to do so. yes, they capture fture profits by drilling and increasing reserves, but, their problem is not reserves, that they have, its true cash to reduce debt.
suddenly, if i understand them..they have two billion and need about two billion more ..they say, anything over four billion goes to rediuce debt. how can that be, unless they plan to really spend down to five billion, raise four billion total and the other billion is either cash flow or from profits.
then, over the four billion mark goes to debt.
i believe this is a great long term play, but, short term?
unbelievable moves with out reason or rhyme
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
184 million
198 million
to 63 million for the qtr ending march 30
does that mean we will see a big increase in sales?
multiply everything by 40 as the participation is for 2 1/2 percentage
lease expenditures were
26 million
42 million
54 million
for march ending qtr 14 million
so its 14 times four, equals 56 million
56 million on equal value of 248 million for the year
net cash flow goes in last three years...
100 million
141 million
144 million
this qtr its 49 million equal for the year of 198 million
again, that's some increase in cash flow
capital expenditures go from
242 million
457 million
434 million to 71 million times four qtrs equals 285 million
that's some decrease in cash expenditures
I got a feeling this all means something .
well,we will tomorrow morning if its all positive me? long lots of chesapeake
Chesapeake Sells Marcellus Acreage To Southwestern At $574 Per Acre: Quick Read [View article]
if you are long Chesapeake you want them to have great earnings,
have a prepared story about how much the high price for natural gas means to them, bottom line.
then they go into the status of asset deals. how much has been collected this year, how much looks like it will be done shortly, and how much is still on the block.
they have to have a correlation between the high natural gas prices and their participation in the game.
what else do we really want to know to move this stock? the entire market is hitting new highs and we are hitting the road with a spark plug missing.
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
what is happening with Chesapeake?
well, the volume is the lightest I have seen in recent months. which indicates?
then, they cut 20 million from the shorts in two months with out a ripple, well, maybe a downswing.
then chevron says, natural gas was their saving for the qtr and they got 3.28 , or thereabout, for the qtr
we know we averages 3.62 yet, no one cares
well, Wednesday morning we get to hear all the stories.
are they going to complete that one billion dollar deal? was the joint venture profitable?
will they tell us where the rest of the asset deals are? some big, some small, but what do they add up to?
what's the deal? are they going to report great earnings from a price of 2.16 to a price of 3.62 from last year comparisons?
will this stock go up again in our life time?
the market hits all time highs, and we just..well,you know
so folks call it now..will we go up Wednesday or flounder?
can they go into a conference call and say, they are just tilting on the wind, or, do they have a master plan to move this stock up in price//
this is like Portia faces life, or is it how the world turns, or, maybe all my children..
what about it? are we destined to flounder?
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
the point is
3472
-2501
----------
971 units were used up in 2012
3517
-1704
-----------
1813 units used up in 2013
3088
-1797
----------
1291 units used up in 2013
looking out till December , do the math and it looks like its interesting