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Donkey Kong

Donkey Kong
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  • Yelp: You'll Be Sorry You Missed It [View article]
    There must have been a typographical error in your analysis. The intrinsic value of YELP is at least comparable to the current value of GOOG which implies a stock price for YELP of $4,900. You never want to miss out on a 100-bagger!
    Jul 14, 2013. 09:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake With A 36% Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    According to my calculations, the discount to intrinsic value is actually 35%.
    Jul 9, 2013. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overreactions Galore [View article]
    First sentence should have read "deflationary pressures".
    Jun 24, 2013. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overreactions Galore [View article]
    People equate "deflationary prices" with lower bond yields which is not always the case. The reason for the sell-off in risk assets is the sharp increase in real rates, exacerbated by a decline in future inflation expectations (deflation). Higher real interest rates are bad news for stocks, commodities, real estate and precious metals. Look at the performance of long maturity TIPS vs. long maturity nominal U.S. Treasuries. The interest rates on TIPS have increased faster than the comparable nominal U.S. Treasury security since mid-May. This implies a lower inflation breakeven (i.e. deflation) as well as increasing real interest rates. You can also see it via the relative performance in the LTPZ and TLT bond ETFs. LTPZ (PIMCO TIPS 15+ year maturity ETF) is down 10.9% MTD while TLT (U.S. Treasury 20+ year maturity ETF) is down only 5.2% MTD. Translation = real interest rates are increasing while deflation expectations are rising. While U.S. Treasuries have not been a safe haven in the recent bond sell-off, you still could have generated an attractive return with a long TLT / short LTPZ pair trade (I'm guessing that most bond fund managers where positioned the other way >>> long TIPS, inflation hedge, etc.

    The change in real rates is more important than nominal rates when it comes to evaluating the outlook for risk assets. Bernanke & Co. thought they could keep real rates low ad infinitum and inflate away the massive global debt problem. Unfortunately, everyone has a plan until they get hit (h/t Mike Tyson).
    Jun 24, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boulder Brands (BDBD +9.2%) has become a "leading natural foods manufacturer with a significant leadership position in the gluten-free segment," Imperial Capital says, initiating coverage at Outperform with a $16 price target. Analyst Mitchell Pinheiro sees three-year revenue growth of 10% and "EPS CAGR of 33%, placing the company among the fastest growing in the packaged food category." [View news story]
    Please list and quantify (i.e numerically) said consequential track record. I would argue that he waaaaayyyy overpaid for the SmartBalance business which is already in decline and therefore needed to go on an acquisition spree (Udi's, Glutino) in order to generate any type of top-line growth.
    Jun 10, 2013. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boulder Brands (BDBD +9.2%) has become a "leading natural foods manufacturer with a significant leadership position in the gluten-free segment," Imperial Capital says, initiating coverage at Outperform with a $16 price target. Analyst Mitchell Pinheiro sees three-year revenue growth of 10% and "EPS CAGR of 33%, placing the company among the fastest growing in the packaged food category." [View news story]
    Looks like a sellside analyst with a penchant for companies with sketchy business models.
    Jun 7, 2013. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Price Targets [View article]
    "There are two types of forecasters: those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know."

    John Kenneth Galbraith
    May 23, 2013. 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 P/E Ratio [View article]
    The conclusion of this article / analysis is a testament to data mining. Instead of analyzing the data to determine whether P/E ratios and valuations are overly extended, Bespoke Group worked backwards by starting with the conclusion that valuations are still low and crafting data that supports their argument. Analyzing P/E ratios for the S&P 500 over a selected 15-year period where high P/Es dominated is a textbook example of data mining.
    May 18, 2013. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Boulder Brands (BDBD +9.1%) make a strong move higher to reach their highest level since February on what Roberto Pedone considers a technical breakout . On the fundamental side, the maker of Smart Balance, Earth Balance and Bestlife products is starting to capitalize on an increased focus on organic products including "gluten-free" butter. [View news story]
    With short interest of almost 18%, today's 9% couldn't possibly be due to short-covering could it?
    May 16, 2013. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broker-Dealers Echo May 2012 Correction Now [View article]
    No need to reply. I just read the semi-annual report for ATACX. Realized, undistributed capital gains (I assume it's all short-term in nature given the 300% portfolio turnover) through 2/28/13 is $0.81 per share of ATACX. I estimate that it cuts about 115 bps from the fund's pre-tax return assuming a 35% marginal tax rate.
    Apr 18, 2013. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broker-Dealers Echo May 2012 Correction Now [View article]
    What are the tax implications YTD from the portfolio changes for holders of ATACX in non-IRA accounts?
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Any Of Your Stocks Members Of The Triple Digit Club? [View article]
    Sorry for the typo. 2013 should be 2023 (10 years from today).
    Mar 31, 2013. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Any Of Your Stocks Members Of The Triple Digit Club? [View article]
    I feel fortunate that I own all 20 of the stocks listed above. While the collective stock performance has been impressive, all of these stocks have much more room to run. I am forecasting at least a 100% annual return for each of these stocks over the next 10 years. NFLX will be the first public company with a market capitalization in excess of $1 trillion (actually $10.9 trillion market cap by 2013).
    Mar 29, 2013. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What, If Anything, Do Rising Silver Coin Premiums Foretell? [View article]
    What's interesting to me of late is that the premiums for closed-end funds that are fully-backed by physical metal (e.g. PHYS, PSLV, GTU, CEF) have seen their respective premiums plummet to all-time lows. Based on the principle that possession is 9/10 of the law, I understand why premiums paid to a local coin shop would be higher than the premiums to NAV for PHYS, PSLV, GTU, CEF, etc. However, I would think that the premiums for fully-backed closed end funds would be increasing given the reported shortage of physical gold and silver.
    Mar 13, 2013. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Direxion Closing Nine Leveraged And Inverse ETFs [View article]
    I want you to put your hands together, and welcome him to the stage. Big round of applause for Jackson Heights own, Mr. Randy Watson, Yes! Randy Watson!
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
184 Comments
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