DumbAss

Closing Update for Thursday, June 16

why are you guys blabbering on about H&S when it is clearly now a megaphone :)

Stands out a mile (and I'm only an amateur), and megaphone is bearish so hang onto your SDS. I did (famous last words..)

Commodities, Global Markets

For stocks that can't be disengaged from the indices, fundamentals and emerging patterns will remain my contrarian indicators for at least the next couple of days.

Absurd Inverse and Leveraged ETF Product Whining (Updated)

With grammatical corrections:

They can't be traded long (eg from an IRA). Look @ the charts, since March 9, there have been no more than ~3 consecutive long days on any of the liquid ones (sds, smn, srs), so if you need 2 days for confirmation of a trend, then jump in on the LOD of the 3rd day, then hit the high (already losing momentum with zigzag drops) followed by complete loss of momentum, then gap down the 4th day. So if you try to trade them long (ignoring options), even during the market retracements we have had recently, they have the potential to screw you every which way to Sunday. And if you make the lethal mistake of feeling bearish and therefore hanging on after the market has turned bullish again (note: the first bullish day is usually testosterone-fueled), you can be totally shafted.

Of course, if a little birdie tells you that tomorrow will be a 3% selloff, and the next day will be another 1.5%, then another birdie tells you its safe to jump in long again at the end of the second or third day, you are made. But that's not retail, that's insider stuff.

And another thing: Even the 2x does not have the capacity to hedge a volatile stock portfolio, which gets hammered more than the market index during a retracement. And (ignoring options for a second), even if you put 50% of your portfolio into a 2x ultrashort in order to fully hedge, does this not mean you have to either move & swap out awful fast (like within a few seconds), or permanently have 50% of capiltal tied up?

Sorry if, as a retail investor, I am missing something...

Absurd Inverse and Leveraged ETF Product Whining (Updated)

They can't be traded long (eg from an IRA). Look @ the charts, since March 9, there have been no more than 3 long days on any of them (sds, smn, srs), so if you need 2 days for confirmation of a trend, jump in on the LOD on the 3rd day, hit the high (already lost momentum with zigzag drops) followed by complete loss of momentum, then gap down the next day. So if you try to trade them long (ignoring options), even during the market retracements we have had recently, hey have the potential to screw you every which way to Sunday. And if you make the lethal mistake of feeling bearish and therefore hanging on after the market has turned bullish again (not the first bullish day is usually testosterone-fueled), you are totally shafted.

Of course, if a little birdie tells you that tomorrow will be a 3% selloff, and the next day will be another 1.5%, then another birdie tells you its safe to jump in long again at the end of the second day, you are made. But that's not retail, that's insider stuff.

And another thing: Even the 2x does not have the capacity to hedge volatile stocks, which get hammered more than the market index during a retracement. And (ignoring options for a second), even if you put 50% of your portfolio into a 2x ultrashort in order to fully hedge, does this not mean you have to either move awful fast (like within a few seconds), or permanently sideline 50% of capiltal? As a retail investor, am I missing something?

Financial Sector Ultra-Shorts: Must Have Protection Against Banking Sector Madness

Twice in the past month I tried daytrading FAZ, and each time, lucky me, after a 1.5 day drift-upward trend I got in JUST a few seconds before the slapdown started. In one of them I managed to get out after 10 min, 97cents down.

Those were my first two attempts at day-trading

I also purchased SDS (S&P 2x bear) the night before the rally began on 9 March, and being bearish in nature, chose to keep it as a hedge. Hopefuly I've used up some bad karma here.

Financial Sector Ultra-Shorts: Must Have Protection Against Banking Sector Madness

Reconciling all points, SKF & FAZ may be good multiday in a more-or-less straight-up scenario, but if there is any whipsawing, the daily leverage reset causes then to leak. The slower resulting net trajectory them also becomes a worry.

That's my take on it anyhow.
The other thing about SKF & FAZ in my conspiratorial view, is that the big players always hold enough to slap them down. And they will do it to deliberately break a technical trend in order to punish you for even thinking about it.

Snap-On: The Future Looks Promising

Hi folks,
Great comments all round. As a bit o a car DIYer, I completely agree with these comments - In my humble opinion, Sears/Craftsman is the first option (if you still have transportation to get you there) and it nearly always has what you need.

SnapOn is occasionally useful for a specialty tool though. For DIYers there can be a barrier in getting the truck to come to a residence as opposed to a shop (you would have to go wait outside a shop to meet the truck), and if you resort to the web (slower) for a specialty tool from SnapOn, you may end up finding cheaper options on the web even for special tools.

I have never quite understood the business model of not lowering some barriers and broadening appeal a bit more.

Therefore the catalog is a great read, but to be used minimally.