clm2112

Sysco: My Favorite Stock

SYY - Hmmm.. Loyalty to my non-publicly traded employer prevents me from being overly exubirant about the competition ;-)

That said, they should be seeing the same benefits we are at present. The real stress was about this time last year, when trying to absorb large fuel surcharges at the same time as not-so-well run customers were closing. The past year has cleaned out the weakest restaurants and distributors. Those that remain are ordering large case counts and paying their bills...both of which are welcome in the foodservice distributor business.

So, since you can't invest with my employer, you might as well go with Sysco. (And as an aside, the Private Equity firms are unlikely to bail from the other two. As bad as the economy may be, we're still making money for them...a lot better than some of their other investments ;-)

Railroad Companies: Good, Better, Best

Liked the article and agree with the basic assessment. Couple of thoughts:

1.) Passenger transport is a overall loss to frieght railroads. One major reason all of them abandoned hauling people in the late 50's and early 60's. Routing passenger traffic on the same lines that move frieght creates lots of conflicts and cuts into the revenue potential of the lines. Commuter rail on dedicated routes in densely populated areas makes sense, but I don't expect to see a "Super-Amtrak" anytime soon. All of the frieght roads will avoid it if possible. (See CSX's response to giving up or sharing it's route across Florida for a light rail proposal.)

2.) PBR coal is important and will no doubt give BNI an advantage. But blending it with Appalachian coal is what power plant operators want, so NSC still has a lot of coal to haul too (best BTU output with a pollution level currently acceptable to the EPA.) NSC got the better end of the deal when ConRail was split between them and CSX.

3.) Eastern roads still have a lot of customers to serve and a container loaded in California can easily get unloaded in Florida with no fuss, and no muss. Handed off from one carrier to the next. The railroads have got intermodal frieght down pat. The density of the eastern roads cuts the size of their physical plant, which works in their favor.

So... for me the best plan is to have positions in both an eastern and a western road. NSC & BNI work for me.

Brunswick: A Forgotten Recreational Vehicle Stock Coming Out from Underwater

Brunswick has a long hard road ahead of it. While the boating industry is in the toilet, and boat owners are abandoning craft on the waterways, Brunswick still has a huge advantage: The Mercury/MerCruiser parts business. When times get better, there will be a lot of boats in need of parts. Plus, their other recreational lines (Bowling and Billiards) do ok in a recession. If Brunswick can survive 2009, it should do better in 2010.

Positions: no BC currently, have owned in the past, will own again in the future ;-)