grey road

Gold Bubble Represents Market Irrationality

OH boy the foolishness of this article I presume will get even sillier after the 50 dollar drop in the price of gold yesterday.. ok ok, its in a bubble, my reccomendation is to sell all of your gold to me ..NOW.. failing this why not just give it to me sicne its in a bubble that has burst so it must be nearly worthless.. yes .. please do this.

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

yes and you are right. This conflict would have much more affect on the price of oil. Personally I dont see this conflict even happening however who knows


On Dec 03 09:01 AM The Chairman wrote:

> Actually what I meant to say is: If that were true shouldn't it be
> Crude Oil going parabolic and not gold?
>
> On Dec 03 08:57 AM The Chairman wrote:

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Im not even sure this has anything at all to do with the price of gold rising. If this happens as you suggest ,it may cause a short term "bubble" however longer term this will have absolutely nothing to do with the price of gold. And once this conflict ends(if it in fact ever happens at all) it will not signal the end of the rise in gold.... could cause a sharp little increase and then a pullback but it will be a blip on the radar as far as the real reasons that will push gold higher.


On Dec 03 12:43 AM j-dub wrote:

> Gold is going parabolic because Israel is about to bomb Iran.
> They have stated that if nothing changes, they will bomb Iran by
> Christmas. Now don't go running to look at the calendar, I'll help
> you out-it's December.
> Folks, that is why Gold is parabolic; traders believe Israel will
> strike this month.

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Gold is not yet in a bubble. It is most cetainly heading for one though. However it is only in a bubble once it gets over where it will eventually wind up trading at a fair value over a longer period of time. Heres how I see it . There are two major factors which will cause gold to rise more and more. The first is the world currency/US$ factor. There is little to no doubt in my mind we are headed back to some kind of gold standard, whether it is in our currencies themselves or the new "currency" which will eventually replace the US$ as the worlds currency. This is what has been causing the price of gold to rise from 200 to where it is now. This will continue to push the price of gold much higher in the short to medium term.My feeling is the fair price for gold longer term once we are out of this bubble will be will be somewhere between 2000-4000 per ounce. Secondly the outlook for inflation which I believe will arrive at some point in the next 5 years will be a major factor in concert with the continuing currency theme to pushing the price of gold into a bubble. I have no idea how high it might go however i would not put 10000per ounce or even much more out of the question.At that point it will be a bubble most likely of some degree or another.My out look for all of this is to happen and subside in the next 10-15 years though. I am sure many stock market bulls will completely disagree with me however there is not much of an argument to be made for what most bulls suggest. It would take a miracle whcih just isnt in the cards anymore to prevent this from happenng.

A123 vs. BYD and Other Irrational Battery Investments

of course you take profits for now.. and watch for it to reset then hop on again.. this isnt rocket science.


On Oct 26 12:29 PM jjp wrote:

> Your comments on BYD sure ruined my morning. Yes they are true, but
> having someone write about them made me have to pull the plug to
> grab my profits before other people caught on. I was thinking of
> doing anyway because of the high price, but also before there had
> been talk of a posible pull back in the China market in November.

12 Cheap Growth Companies

This is precisely correct , and is the reason why no one in there right mind would buy into these insurers...for those of you who put thumbs down to this , wake up... its coming.

On Oct 25 12:20 PM Uncle Pie wrote:

> Healthcare in America is about 35% more costly per capita than it
> is in other developed countries because the health insurance oligopoly
> marks up the cost of health care by that much. Take a look at the
> income statement of any of these companies. You'll find that about
> 2/3rds of revenue goes to pay for actual health care (ie. claims)
> and the other 1/3rd goes for overhead, executive compensation, dividends
> to shareholders, etc. It's not hard to connect the dots. Trouble
> is, such a costly system makes our labor costs non-competetive, and
> leaves 48 million people without access to healthcare. The whole
> system is on the verge on collapse which is the only reason the politicians
> are paying any belated attention to the issue. I'd think twice before
> investing in health insurance companies like WLP or AET or AIZ or
> HUM and am not surprised by the low p/e ratios as their business
> model is not long for this world. Health care costs per capita in
> Canada are 1/3rd lower than ours and Canadians have a longer life
> expectancy, according to figures in The Economist magazine and elsewhere.
> Number of health insurance companies in Canada: Zero.

A123 vs. BYD and Other Irrational Battery Investments

Oh boy, what can I say John? BYD is not a value play at all at this point. Warren Buffet has the clout to get the best deal he can. Before he came along, there was no guarantee that these guys were going to be able to be as ambitious as they are. BYD and these other companies you mention are growth plays , plain and simple. The P/E and these kind of metrics mean very little in the case of BYD. My advice to anyone is to buy BYD , preferably on the Hang Seng , but if not the OTC sheet is good too, buy it on dips , sell on rips. and wait for the cycle to repeat itself. The growth will slow down at times , at other times , it will tear ahead very quickly. Anyone who is buying stocks and companies like BYD as some kind of value play are not looking at the potential for huge profits, obviously with some risk. I would reccomend big old blue chips with dividends of the same old tired companies if you want to invest like this. The growth potential in quality companies like BYD is the only story and I feel will continue for many years. Just dont buy at all time highs and dont be afraid to take some profits from time to time.Or dont , and I will scoop up more profits for myself.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

This is a fair point. However things are so bad and will get so much worse I do believe it will feel this bad for alot of people. SO long as the world does nto disintigarte into war at all angles though, you are right, things will eventually get better to some degree.


On Oct 19 12:56 PM KingGeithner wrote:

> The real Depression is that this writer and many posters on this
> site refuse to believe that anything short of an economic holocaust
> will occur in the US. Things will be bad for years to come, but not
> as doom and gloom as the 100% bears are preaching. These same bears
> have as much conviction in the validity of their opinions as the
> full-on bulls did earlier in the decade. I am always skeptical of
> people who have complete blind faith in their own opinions.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

yes they do... and unfortunately they are right for the most part.


On Oct 17 04:00 PM luv2makemonies wrote:

> We have Wall Street & their greedy corporate cornies to thanks
> for cooking up all this mess. The big difference is that they all
> got bailed out ( GM, AIG, Goldman Sachs, BOA, C, etc)
> All we got was to trade in our clunker cars and lip service. It's
> time to clean house folks we should be mad as hell and not going
> to take this anymore! do they think we're that stupid...

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

Why are you all arguing over the point of English versus Chinese? Rogers probaly was making a greater point that China will have much more clout in the future. What language we will be speaking is irrelavant. What you should be focusing on is the greater point of what he is saying , however , yes this is over a number of years. In the meantime ther is lots of money to be made, however I agree with Rogers completely.

Gold's Breakout Revisited

Obviously anyone who can think clearly and sensibly knew that gold would go higher, theres no question that gold will go much higher for the foreseeable future.


On Oct 10 12:47 AM Laurence Hunt wrote:

> Every time gold pushed upwards at the $1000 resistance since March
> 2008, it was moving closer and closer to long-term uptrend support
> lines. This was a simple but dependable analysis, in my opinion.
>
>
> You've gotta say that by the fall 2009 move, we couldn't have crowded
> the ascending support line very much more closely, so here we are.
>
>
> What amazes me is that the Comex shorts don't look at the long-term
> trending support. I guess they really just trade MACD and RSI and
> such metrics to go short at overbought levels. (I'm not a professional
> trader, so I really don't know.)
>
> Were I on the short side, I'd hate to bet against the so far 8-year-long
> gold bull at trending support!

The Next Major Crisis Brewing

You must be joking , right?


On Oct 01 12:20 PM Leftfield wrote:

> The Fed is privately owned, so, let them buy up all the toxic assets
> and Treasuries the banks and agencies feed them. Then, let it collapse.
> Won't that take taxpayers off the hook?

The Next Major Crisis Brewing

you are correct in many ways, however you also sound like a raging bull who cannot accept that very bad things, should, can, and will happen.


On Oct 01 12:18 PM Shaftsinker wrote:

> There is no larger conception in this article. This is just seekingalpha's
> daily dose of why the world is ending. Every day it's a new theory
> and yet all these damn articles are the same.
>
> It's always somebody rambling about the US banks, the fed, Obama,
> inflation, deflation, and how everything is obviously pointing towards
> a "crash" or "crisis" yet the author will never even attempt to quantify
> our impending doom in any way. No numbers, no percentages, no timeline,
> no actual prediction whatsoever.
>
> "It's going to rain. I'm not saying when, or how much, but get your
> umbrellas ready. It might be sunny for a while, and in fact it might
> not even rain, it might just be a little overcast or slightly cloudy,
> so you might not need your umbrella at all, but you might want to
> put your sunglasses away"
>
> And then for some reason the comment section is filled with happy
> clapping seals convinced that this is a brilliant and insightful
> prophecy.
>
> I wonder what this place is like during the good times.

The Next Major Crisis Brewing

youve let yourselves down by being so stupid to believe any of these clowns can or will ever help you in any way. what a sad sad situation.


On Oct 01 12:07 PM Depressionitis wrote:

> BTW, Next election I'm voting for whomever is NOT currently in office.
> If I lived in his Congressional District - they only incumbent I
> would vote for is Ron Paul (I live in NY).
>
> Our governments (local, state & Federal) have let our country
> down. I see two ways to get our government to responsibly run our
> country - A. Revolution or B. Until our elected politicians perform
> responsibly, keep changing them - ALL of them.
>
> We have a 90% re-election rate in our country. Why do we allow the
> same people who cause us problems to stay in office and continue
> causing us problems?

Tobin's 'Q' Shows Market Is Still Cheap

the author is grasping at straws here, and is what i call a polyanna, no one is buying this stuff.