BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
@marlowe9810 I had heard that the production numbers were bumped to 1.5 to 2.0 million per month based on the initial volumes of pre-order interest. I think Thorsten was referring to that bump up from 500k to 1.5/2.0 million.
BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
I think for $BBRY to meet its goal of say converting 25% of BB7 folks over to BB10 over this year (ignoring the seasonality and a possible major demand for Q10) then, on a prorated basis, for the month of February alone it has to sell approx. ~1.67 million (and if we assume an additional 20% switch over from iPhone/Android - based on their new NPS - Net Promoter Score; 20% switchover is most likely on the higher side though) to ~2.0 million around the world. February is a short month so we could assume ~1.55 million for February and about ~1.86 as the high water mark.
who talks about how the hedge fund managers use the media (CNBC, etc.) and others (like: MKM?) to circulate rumors and outright lies through those dimwits who have no foggy idea or purely using it to bring down the stock and buy it on the low.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Wasn't there a news a while back (well before Z10 launch) that the incoming pre-orders (in Canada and UK) were so overwhelming that Blackberry increased its production from 500k to 1.5/2 million devices per month? If that is indeed true then, that in and by itself should give an indication of what Blackberry was expecting initially for BB10/Z10 (500k devices) to what turned out to be actual demand - 1.5/2 million per month. This is very much inline with the estimates I have expounded upon on my other response on this thread. With this in mind I think MKM might be way off target here.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Michael, do you still see the same level of demand/buzz in U.K. or do you think (like the MKM analyst said) the demand for the Z10 has suddenly taken a nose dive? Cutting the estimates from ~1.75 million to 400k is a major shave. If one was to extrapolate the figures that would account for only about ~5 million BB10 devices to be sold during year 2013! That is way below the original estimate of about ~20 million BB10 devices in 2013.
Here is my math - with say 25% conversion rate (of 80 million Blackberry BB7 subscribers) to Z10/Q10, the top line run rate (prorated on a month to month basis) for February 2013 would mean that $BBRY will have to notch up a sale of at least (20/12 =) 1.67 million to 2.0 million (2 million is on the higher side - assuming ~20% uniform switch over rate from Apple/Android to Blackberry across the globe - albeit, that may be too high). So MKM's number of 400k is very, very low indeed - especially given that Blackberry tried to create so much buzz about BB10/Z10.
Do you find any flaw in my estimates - the only variables I can see (amongst many) is if folks are holding back purchase of Blackberry until Q10 is released; the rate of switch over from other platforms; and, folks are holding off purchase of Blackberry until so called "top 50 Android/iOS" apps become available on Z10/Q10.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Michael, could it be that $BBRY/channels didn't anticipate and so didn't hedge against current currency fluctuation in sterling pound and as a result are passing the costs to the consumer as $BBRY can't (/doesn't want to) absorb those costs as it essentially would wipeout their margins. While the bell weathers like $AAPL and Samsung are willing to either absorb those losses (or actively hedge their currency positions) due to the shear volume of sales that they are able to pull through. I know this argument is treading on flimsy ice but thought of putting it out there anyway.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Per finance.google.com $BBRY reports on March 28th, 2013 - so I guess we will have to hold it for another month or so. I don't plan to sell $BBRY any time soon so I am game for it.
Heard that if you have a margin account your stocks can be used by the brokerage for loaning it out to the shorts - I don't know the specifics of what that means - maybe somebody can elaborate on that. Also, can somebody explain how I can tell my brokerage (like say Etrade) to block this from happening with my $BBRY account? If we retail customers can do that before March 28th then there is a possibility that something interesting might happen.
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
@go4itrob, I applaud you for being humble in your response. As long as you have the thirst to learn and excel you will always be ahead of the game. Your english is quite understandable; please don't get disheartened by some of the comments.
You made a very valid point about one getting blinded by "brand loyalty" - it could very well happen (Apple is a standing example of that). From a purely personal point of view, I never owned a Blackberry before, because it just didn't resonate with me; but, recently I have changed my opinion after doing a lot of technical due diligence on their BB10 platform and after seeing a lot of demos and finally got a chance to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to my friend. I have to say that they (Blackberry) have done a very good job - mind you I have been a Apple zealot for a very long time but then switched over to Nokia Lumia 920 (after Apple sued Samsung because I didn't appreciate their greed - albeit I don't own Apple or Samsung stock :) and now, after having played around with all those platforms (and having seen what Android has to offer) I have come to realize that Blackberry has got it this time. If you don't mind, just watch some of the videos by Mike Lazaridis and you will understand the genius of that person to stick to Blackberry's stance of not having an App Store; or, being fanatic about extracting every last drop of energy from the battery; and, to top that building a top notch secure and reliable platform. Second, also read Prem Watsa's yearly reports and watch some of his videos and you will hopefully understand the minds that are working on Blackberry. People tend to talk about Jim Balsillie in disdain but I have a lot of regards for him as well. Among many other things, all said and done, the co-CEOs ensured that Blackberry never ever had any debt - that is very commendable.
Again, whatever I said above is purely my personal opinion, and, I like to bet on things that I truly believe in.
Last but not the least, your views are very much appreciated - thanks and sincerely appreciate it.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
A very good idea Michael. What would help is a questionnaire that folks could follow up on.
I am in US and as you know the Z10 is still not available. I got to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to a visiting friend of mine. It is very light and has a slate like (cardboard-ish) feel to it - the UI is very smooth as well; the applications also launch very quickly. The doc to go provides lot more features to edit and format a document - much more than what I get on my Lumia 920 - I was pleasantly surprised about that. The transition between the Hub, Active Frames and Apps is very smooth and intuitive - I don't know why some of the bloggers say that it is confusing.
Overall in the 10 minutes or so that I got to play with the Z10 - I have to say that, I found it to be very intuitive and I have to give pretty high marks to Z10.
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
Luke, I completely agree with you on that point. The recent news of Spotify shows that well known application houses are taking note of Z10. This is not a one or two quarter story it will play out over 2013 and until then those folks who believe in BB10 (like myself) will have to just lay low and enjoy reading interesting comments from you, System, and others :)
BTW: I loaded up more $3.50 options on $NOK today - I think it is a good buy opportunity. Luke, do you know when Nokia is launching on Verizon?
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
@kherman, please include a better picture (if you can) that the line is actually for Blackberry Z10 else some of the bears (and I don't need to specifically call out names) will say that the line is to pick up their ration - we know our beloved bears will throw anything at $BBRY if they get a chance to do that.
6 Reasons To Buy Marvell As Solid State Makers Compete For Market Share [View article]
BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
BlackBerry: Waiting For The Sunshine [View article]
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
who talks about how the hedge fund managers use the media (CNBC, etc.) and others (like: MKM?) to circulate rumors and outright lies through those dimwits who have no foggy idea or purely using it to bring down the stock and buy it on the low.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Here is my math - with say 25% conversion rate (of 80 million Blackberry BB7 subscribers) to Z10/Q10, the top line run rate (prorated on a month to month basis) for February 2013 would mean that $BBRY will have to notch up a sale of at least (20/12 =) 1.67 million to 2.0 million (2 million is on the higher side - assuming ~20% uniform switch over rate from Apple/Android to Blackberry across the globe - albeit, that may be too high). So MKM's number of 400k is very, very low indeed - especially given that Blackberry tried to create so much buzz about BB10/Z10.
Do you find any flaw in my estimates - the only variables I can see (amongst many) is if folks are holding back purchase of Blackberry until Q10 is released; the rate of switch over from other platforms; and, folks are holding off purchase of Blackberry until so called "top 50 Android/iOS" apps become available on Z10/Q10.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
Heard that if you have a margin account your stocks can be used by the brokerage for loaning it out to the shorts - I don't know the specifics of what that means - maybe somebody can elaborate on that. Also, can somebody explain how I can tell my brokerage (like say Etrade) to block this from happening with my $BBRY account? If we retail customers can do that before March 28th then there is a possibility that something interesting might happen.
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
You made a very valid point about one getting blinded by "brand loyalty" - it could very well happen (Apple is a standing example of that). From a purely personal point of view, I never owned a Blackberry before, because it just didn't resonate with me; but, recently I have changed my opinion after doing a lot of technical due diligence on their BB10 platform and after seeing a lot of demos and finally got a chance to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to my friend. I have to say that they (Blackberry) have done a very good job - mind you I have been a Apple zealot for a very long time but then switched over to Nokia Lumia 920 (after Apple sued Samsung because I didn't appreciate their greed - albeit I don't own Apple or Samsung stock :) and now, after having played around with all those platforms (and having seen what Android has to offer) I have come to realize that Blackberry has got it this time. If you don't mind, just watch some of the videos by Mike Lazaridis and you will understand the genius of that person to stick to Blackberry's stance of not having an App Store; or, being fanatic about extracting every last drop of energy from the battery; and, to top that building a top notch secure and reliable platform. Second, also read Prem Watsa's yearly reports and watch some of his videos and you will hopefully understand the minds that are working on Blackberry. People tend to talk about Jim Balsillie in disdain but I have a lot of regards for him as well. Among many other things, all said and done, the co-CEOs ensured that Blackberry never ever had any debt - that is very commendable.
Again, whatever I said above is purely my personal opinion, and, I like to bet on things that I truly believe in.
Last but not the least, your views are very much appreciated - thanks and sincerely appreciate it.
Disclosure: I am long Nokia and Blackberry.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
I am in US and as you know the Z10 is still not available. I got to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to a visiting friend of mine. It is very light and has a slate like (cardboard-ish) feel to it - the UI is very smooth as well; the applications also launch very quickly. The doc to go provides lot more features to edit and format a document - much more than what I get on my Lumia 920 - I was pleasantly surprised about that. The transition between the Hub, Active Frames and Apps is very smooth and intuitive - I don't know why some of the bloggers say that it is confusing.
Overall in the 10 minutes or so that I got to play with the Z10 - I have to say that, I found it to be very intuitive and I have to give pretty high marks to Z10.
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
BTW: I loaded up more $3.50 options on $NOK today - I think it is a good buy opportunity. Luke, do you know when Nokia is launching on Verizon?
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]