Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
Did I tell you that son? I thought I told you apple was a forbidden fruit; obviously you were not listening. Try out the blackberry next time - that fruit isn't on the forbidden list.
Just couldn't prevent myself from indulging in a little humor to end my day - but the message is still true to God :)
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
Thanks Alan, your first article on BB10/Z10 was a poetry in motion - you have a very lucid style of writing - I guess you should author a book on QNX/BB10 (and I sincerely mean that).
Having implemented a mini version of QNX like system myself way back I know what goes into implementing such a system and have a very high regard for its capabilities. Future will speak for itself but IMO, all this current noise/talking down that is going around $BBRY will go down as the time goes by and BB10 proves its merits.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
@aadams111, thanks for those kind words, credit also is due to the author who covered her thesis by listing those points. I merely projected another "aspect" of thought onto it just to show that staying within those guidelines how we folks are "bullish" think about Blackberry, and BB10.
Both I and my wife are going to buy a Blackberry Z10 when it is released in US. i have a Nokia Lumia 920 right now and she has a iPhone 4S. BTW: in my office a lot of Android owners who are tech savvy are thinking of switching over to Z10. In all honesty, I couldn't get them to do that with my Lumia 920 even though Lumia 920 has lot of neat features and apps.
Nokia has its own strengths (which I have already listed out on my other posts) but I think for a person who needs to get the job done, Z10 truly provides the tools to keep you on the top of it. My wife is a "Getting Things Done" type of personality and she was sold on Z10 the very moment she went through some of the Z10 demos at my behest. She wasn't too impressed with Windows 8 and after looking at Z10 I can now understand why she had taken that stance. For some reason, I was never impressed with Androids - the UI just feels clunky and cumbersome (it is just my opinion). In that respect iPhone, Windows 8 and now Blackberry sport a very clean and polished UI interface.
I have a Playbook and last year (August 2012 I think) I was a bit disappointed with Playbook because the web browser was very slow and their App store was a bit confusing. I saw the recent web browser on Z10 and it is blazing fast. The browser on Playbook has also improved substantially in speed and doesn't crash as it does on my Lumia 920.
I am long Nokia (options) and Blackberry (stocks and options) because I truly believe that if anybody it is Samsung who is going to have to watch out for because as I mentioned Z10 provides you with the best of both Android and a true Blackberry.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
BTW: I haven't even touched here on one of the key cornerstone of BB10 strategy - mobile computing - if you think the world is going gaga about virtualization watch what BB10 will do on that front and many others - hint the internet of "things" is going to get a lot more interesting as time goes by and per Mike Lazaridis BB10 is ready for it.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
Lets go through your points one by one and let me provide my 2 cents:
1 No more unique - 1.1 On Technology front you think they lost their edge and have no differentiation to bring to the market with respect to their peers:
Well, I guess you need to probably understand that BB10 supports true multi-tasking and realtime OS, a unique UI experience that is not only quick but is also geared towards giving you all the tools that will help in getting your job done effectively - in and out of a task with minimal fuss, an entirely aspect driven interface between applications, an interface that is geared for the people who are hyper connected and on the move, a keyboard that is considered by many pundits to be the best and the most productive in the industry (even better than the Android keyboard app/plugin which you can buy for $5, and which, if you are not aware, is based on the technology licensed from Blackberry). A best of class browser (which is fast and most compliant) and soon to be available rich Apps and Games - that are built entirely for the browser environment - which incidentally can also be dropped as apps on the apps dashboard. If that is not all you can also be rest assured that you will be working on the most secured platform. From an enterprise standpoint it provides the enterprise both device specific and server side offering that allow complete control of not only the device but also allows users to pursue BYODs without disturbing their choice (Blackberry, Apple, Android and soon Windows?). The BB10 platform was the only platform that was declared FIPS compliant even before a single device was actually sold! It also lets those folks who are sold on Android to allow them to run their apps while also enjoying the best of what Blackberry has to offer (which I already called out above). But wait that is not all, there is more but I will leave that to your's and our other SA members' imagination (hint: NFC and all its related applications, rich interfaces that will be available through integration of the Hub's notification and messaging API with other Apps, unified consistent search interface, Siri like capabilities, etc.)
1.2 Enterprises are quitting on Blackberry (e.g., Home Depot) The reason why Home Depot chose to move out of Blackberry Z10 was because they were getting the iPhone 4S for free. AFAIK, Home Depot hasn't announced anything about whether or not they are leaving their BES intact. BES 10 provides rich capabilities that are geared to address BYOD requirements and I don't need to tell you that it is secure (probably the best in the industry bar none). Home Depot cannot be used as a barometer for stating that as a trend - it's not just you - I have seen WSJ and others do the same. Enterprises fall into various categories (and putting them under one umbrella is a cardinal mistake), those falling in the same domain as Home Depot (with lower security requirement - with nothing much to loose in terms of competitive advantage) may choose to go Home Depot route but there are plenty others who will not due to the shear nature of their security requirements - e.g., Finance, Healthcare, Defense, etc.). Even if they choose to use a BYOD/mixed approach they will use BES 10 server capabilities to ensure that their infrastructure is secure. I could go on but enough said.
2. Fringe Player in the U.S. market Just go back in history and watch what those same analyst had written about Apple during their second coming. Microsoft and Sun were supposed to be the 500 pound gorillas that were insurmountable. Don't know about you but I have been through that period and I know what it was then. I would leave you to watch the recent interview of Charlie Rose with Bill Gates to know about the success of Windows Phone (mind you I have a Nokia Windows 8 phone so I know exactly what their shortcomings are - and I don't see those shortcomings in Blackberry - in fact BB10 has taken Windows, iPhone and Android's interfaces to the next level of generalization - bringing in seamless integration between and capability to extend apps, features and functionality).
3. Emerging Markets have heightened competition as well Apple is a standing example of success where people will pay to buy quality. One has to use the Blackberry to really understand how much it facilitates your day to day life over and above being just a phone. There will always be competition, value is in the minds of us human beings there are 80 million of those out there, and, with BB10 there is at least 20-25% potential to get others to buy into BB10 story - we will know about this very soon. Blackberry doesn't want to play in the commoditized market - let Nokia, Samsung, and other local operators fight it out in that market. Blackberry provides a compelling play for those who want Android++ capabilities. As time goes by it will become more compelling.
4. Size - it is not about outspending Look at Microsoft v/s Apple (during Apple's initial days) - Microsoft did try to outspend Apple but look what happened. Android may be free but it is really not free - people are giving away their right to their personal information to Google - if you are happy to give away your information by buying Android phones so be it. Google will give anything to know what you are breathing, eating, chatting, reading, writing, etc. even if that means giving you an Android phone for free. If you think China dumps goods on other countries - Google is similar to China in that it dumps its technology on us folks and gets free access to valuable information - the value is in aggregates and we all haven't as yet realized that! The sooner people realize the similarity the better it will be for them.
5. Tough to be in both smartphone software and hardware Like other points listed above, I personally beg to differ on this point as well - BB10 is both a platform and strategy - just look at the possibilities available to BB10 - I won't go into all details here. All I will say is don't be myopic in terms of looking at the current offerings but look at the future 2 to 3 years out. Do read some of the articles by Prem Watsa and you will see why he is invested so heavily in Blackberry. And given that you are an Indian you will know that he went to IIT and you know better than anybody that getting into IITs is not an easy job - he has a very good handle on technology and is a financial wizard when it comes to risk assessment - enough said. Don't compare Nokia with Blackberry - Nokia has plenty other issues which resulted them in dumping Symbian - if they had a BB10 like strategy/platform and didn't have so many people on their payroll in Europe they wouldn't have opted for Microsoft. It was more a marriage of necessity than a match made in heaven. Just look at the blog by Eld on SA and you will see what Nokia is heading up against. Blackberry only has about 11k employees with "at will" employment - Nokia has a different problem where it is very costly to fire employees. Nokia is also saddled with huge debt - Blackberry as you know has none - don't underestimate the power of zero debt, very few companies are fortunate to be in that position - that is one reason I admire both Jim and Mike (their previous co-CEOs) - apart from Mike's brilliance in conceiving the hardware and Jim's almost single handed drive in putting together a secure network for RIMM.
6. You can't be just a smartphone seller any more In the near future we all will see what Blackberry has lined up - both in terms of software and hardware. Z10/Q10/BES10/etc. is just the start. The potential of BB10 is deep, and broad; and, spans human to machine and machine to machine boundaries all thanks to a small, muti-tasking, realtime, distributed, secure, reliable and scalable QNX. Just go and check if any OS out in the mobile space can say all this about itself.
7. Do we have room for four mobile software eco-systems There is always room for quality - time will prove it. Take the example of IBM which got out of the PC business because frankly they lacked the imagination that Apple showed in later years with the products like iPads, iMacs, Macbook Pros, Macbook Airs. Could IBM have done that - yes they could very well have - but they are too much of a process driven company; their heart and soul is invested into other areas other than truly investing effort into productizing technology that resonates with the hearts and minds of people. In this respect, I consider this as the second coming of Blackberry - time will tell.
8. Summary: I don't know how you came to the EV of less than $5 billion! Anyway, I won't argue with you on that; all I can say is that IMO you are assuming BB10 as complete failure and completely discounting their future cash generation potential and to a large extent the true value of their patents.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
@ATInsider - how do you know that the pre-orders in USA are strong? I don't see that data being published by AT&T, Verizon or Sprint. Could you please share it if possible?
I think this delay is helping Blackberry to release a new update that includes the latest Android support and helps them to add some important apps like WhatsApp, (probably) Netflix and Skype and another 25k to 30k additional Android apps. I hope people here in US will realize the benefit of buying a Blackberry over a Android only phone in that they get the benefit of both an Android platform plus all the virtues of being a Blackberry.
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
Good point Herr Hansa. To add to that Heins categorically stated that BB7 based BIS revenue is not going anywhere for at least next 2 years - which means an additional $4 billion to $BBRY's bottom line. This is assuming all BB7 sales halt tomorrow - which obviously is not the case because $BBRY has said that the sales numbers were really good during December '12 and January '13. Which essentially means that there are more BB7 phones running BIS that have been sold over last 2 months. If during the short time that BB10s have been selling they are able to chalk out a good sales number then that will be a good indication about the success of BB10. I am sure that the analyst will paint that in a bad light saying that the sales of BB10 is an indication that service revenue is going to decline faster than expected due to earlier adoption of BB10 than what they had expected. Well that is for some other day I guess.
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
@Systembolaget, thanks for forwarding the link over. I find this a very balanced review and we all know that Blackberry has to prove its worth - so far the results are encouraging.
Why do you call it as a marketing failure? The author has mentioned his personal opinion about the Super Bowl Ad. and everybody has one. I guess you must have watched their Keep Moving Ad. I found it pretty interesting. BTW: I also thought that the Super Bowl Ad. was good and actually mocked the fact that they could hardly do justice to Blackberry Z10's capabilities in those 30 seconds - which I thought was very honest.
Don't under estimate the power of these celebrities to reach out to their base. Obama is a standing example of what grass root movement can achieve.
BlackBerry 10: Too Little, Too Late To Save Investors [View article]
Glad you brought that point up Michael. If Blackberry is able to show that the BB10 sales were good/solid should hopefully result in higher multiple on that FCF. I am sure some analysts will still have some mischief up their sleeve.
Somebody pointed out that based on prior data the best initial launch sale that Blackberry achieved earlier was ~525k devices and Heins has been saying that the sales in Canada and UK have been excellent and that he was pleased and surprised and that the sales numbers have well gone beyond his expectations. Second, Blackberry also mentioned that their December and January sales were looking very good (which I think essentially accounts for BB7?).
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
Didn't Blackberry announce that they had their best device sales (BB7 and BB10) in this quarter so far?
Blackberry And Forbes: Battleground Stocks And Headline Risks [View article]
I completely concur with your viewpoint Michael, I have been reading quite a bit of these blogs, and articles on WSJ, Bloomberg, Forbes, Endgadget, TheVerge,... Each one of them has been very negative - journalism has taken a new low point - it almost feels like the media is hell bent on destroying Blackberry. I am not sure what vested interests draws those folks to write such bad and disingenuous reviews with sensational headlines that misguides the readers. The only exception to this is New York Times and especially David Pogue - he has been all praise for Blackberry. Even Mossberg liked Z10 and praised the keyboard. It is only here on SA that I see a lot of bullish sentiment towards Blackberry which is refreshing to say the least.
I am also a bit taken aback by the way US service providers AT&T, Verizon and Sprint (purposely?) delayed the official launch of Z10 in US. I do think that it is for the best though as I think Blackberry will integrate Jelly Bean by then and will also have lot more apps available. I sincerely hope that they can take that count to over 100k+ with additional support from Android community to port Android apps over to Blackberry. If it catches fire with the youth watch how quickly the Android apps will start mushrooming on Blackberry - then it will be time for Samsung to watch out. I am hearing that Android apps run faster on Blackberry if the benchmark numbers do turn out to show that is true then that would be a real game changer.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
@csymalla, if you watch some of Mike Lazaridis's videos you will see that his entire effort was to build devices that left a very lite footprint on the network and used battery very frugally. That is one primary reason he refrained from building a full touch version until very recently. Second, he didn't support an app model because he thought: a) Blackberry had all the applications that a user needs to be productive (which might have been true during a certain period of time - and personally I think this is still true, but others may very well defer) b) Through quality of their apps and device they could maintain strong control on data/network, and cpu usage - today this is hardly a concern
When I watched some of those videos I have to say that I came out pretty impressed with his thought process - he was trying to make full use of the limited bandwidth that was available on GPRS/1.5/2G. I would bet a dollar to anybody to find another company that can match that on those networks (remember many African, Latin American and Asian countries are still humming on those networks). His favorite tag line was if you don't understand the physics of transmission you will never build efficient devices. I have read that the compression ratio that Blackberry achieves is way better than gzip and other compression tools. I have heard that Doctors without boundaries still carry Blackberry devices.
As recent history has proven people and service providers give a damn about having an efficient device (that is efficient on power consumption and data usage); they want a fancy and cool device that provides lots of apps, games, etc. There is data out there that shows that most people don't use more than a few hundred apps but the numbers (the long tail) matter for getting the bragging rights and to build a community with vested interests.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
L.D., I don't have a link readily available but I had read that the reason why WebOS failed is because Palm had a lot of debt on their hands and when they launched WebOS they didn't have the money to help drive the marketing campaign nor did they get any backing from the service providers. Also, palm's device was pretty small with a tiny keyboard and didn't have much enthusiastic support from the app community.
I think Blackberry has plenty of cash and no debt - apparently Apple spent less than $500 million dollars when they first launched iPhone and thus far Apple has spent about $1 billion overall on marketing iPhone. So with that benchmark I think Blackberry will come well below that mark. Heins had also mentioned that the entire marketing expense of BB10 launch was going to be cash neutral as of last quarters cash position - will have to see what that actually means during this quarters results.
Last but not the least (if you don't mind answering) what I wanted to know was what do you advice your private investor clients - to hold buying Blackberry for now or to go outright and short it?
Also, you know that Prem Watsa and Francis Chou are both invested in Blackberry and Prem Watsa is on their board. What do you think is the motive driving them to be long when you personally think that Blackberry is heading toward bankruptcy (I hope I am not misquoting you). To date Prem Watsa has shown very shrewd instincts when it comes to picking stocks and knowing his technical and financial prowess I am sure he would be shepherding them in the right direction. Last but not the least Mike Lazaridis is a brilliant man as well and apparently he was a key driver behind their BB10 strategy - I some way (at least to my mind) he seems to carry the traits of both Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Do you think such brilliant minds can throw their child under the bus?
I can't help myself from writing long responses, but, your response will be very much appreciated.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
L.D. IMO, it is different than the current stock of Linux kernels in that it provides realtime capabilities; plus, the kernel itself is pretty well optimized and very small in comparison to the normal size of a Linux kernel. Its scheduler is also better optimized.
The small footprint makes it suitable for environments that are limited in hardware resources.
Is BB10 The Modern Example Of 'The Chicken Or The Egg'? [View article]
Just couldn't prevent myself from indulging in a little humor to end my day - but the message is still true to God :)
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
Having implemented a mini version of QNX like system myself way back I know what goes into implementing such a system and have a very high regard for its capabilities. Future will speak for itself but IMO, all this current noise/talking down that is going around $BBRY will go down as the time goes by and BB10 proves its merits.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
Both I and my wife are going to buy a Blackberry Z10 when it is released in US. i have a Nokia Lumia 920 right now and she has a iPhone 4S. BTW: in my office a lot of Android owners who are tech savvy are thinking of switching over to Z10. In all honesty, I couldn't get them to do that with my Lumia 920 even though Lumia 920 has lot of neat features and apps.
Nokia has its own strengths (which I have already listed out on my other posts) but I think for a person who needs to get the job done, Z10 truly provides the tools to keep you on the top of it. My wife is a "Getting Things Done" type of personality and she was sold on Z10 the very moment she went through some of the Z10 demos at my behest. She wasn't too impressed with Windows 8 and after looking at Z10 I can now understand why she had taken that stance. For some reason, I was never impressed with Androids - the UI just feels clunky and cumbersome (it is just my opinion). In that respect iPhone, Windows 8 and now Blackberry sport a very clean and polished UI interface.
I have a Playbook and last year (August 2012 I think) I was a bit disappointed with Playbook because the web browser was very slow and their App store was a bit confusing. I saw the recent web browser on Z10 and it is blazing fast. The browser on Playbook has also improved substantially in speed and doesn't crash as it does on my Lumia 920.
I am long Nokia (options) and Blackberry (stocks and options) because I truly believe that if anybody it is Samsung who is going to have to watch out for because as I mentioned Z10 provides you with the best of both Android and a true Blackberry.
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
BlackBerry - Some Roads Aren't Meant To Be Traveled Alone [View article]
1 No more unique -
1.1 On Technology front you think they lost their edge and have no differentiation to bring to the market with respect to their peers:
Well, I guess you need to probably understand that BB10 supports true multi-tasking and realtime OS, a unique UI experience that is not only quick but is also geared towards giving you all the tools that will help in getting your job done effectively - in and out of a task with minimal fuss, an entirely aspect driven interface between applications, an interface that is geared for the people who are hyper connected and on the move, a keyboard that is considered by many pundits to be the best and the most productive in the industry (even better than the Android keyboard app/plugin which you can buy for $5, and which, if you are not aware, is based on the technology licensed from Blackberry). A best of class browser (which is fast and most compliant) and soon to be available rich Apps and Games - that are built entirely for the browser environment - which incidentally can also be dropped as apps on the apps dashboard. If that is not all you can also be rest assured that you will be working on the most secured platform. From an enterprise standpoint it provides the enterprise both device specific and server side offering that allow complete control of not only the device but also allows users to pursue BYODs without disturbing their choice (Blackberry, Apple, Android and soon Windows?). The BB10 platform was the only platform that was declared FIPS compliant even before a single device was actually sold! It also lets those folks who are sold on Android to allow them to run their apps while also enjoying the best of what Blackberry has to offer (which I already called out above). But wait that is not all, there is more but I will leave that to your's and our other SA members' imagination (hint: NFC and all its related applications, rich interfaces that will be available through integration of the Hub's notification and messaging API with other Apps, unified consistent search interface, Siri like capabilities, etc.)
1.2 Enterprises are quitting on Blackberry (e.g., Home Depot)
The reason why Home Depot chose to move out of Blackberry Z10 was because they were getting the iPhone 4S for free. AFAIK, Home Depot hasn't announced anything about whether or not they are leaving their BES intact. BES 10 provides rich capabilities that are geared to address BYOD requirements and I don't need to tell you that it is secure (probably the best in the industry bar none). Home Depot cannot be used as a barometer for stating that as a trend - it's not just you - I have seen WSJ and others do the same. Enterprises fall into various categories (and putting them under one umbrella is a cardinal mistake), those falling in the same domain as Home Depot (with lower security requirement - with nothing much to loose in terms of competitive advantage) may choose to go Home Depot route but there are plenty others who will not due to the shear nature of their security requirements - e.g., Finance, Healthcare, Defense, etc.). Even if they choose to use a BYOD/mixed approach they will use BES 10 server capabilities to ensure that their infrastructure is secure. I could go on but enough said.
2. Fringe Player in the U.S. market
Just go back in history and watch what those same analyst had written about Apple during their second coming. Microsoft and Sun were supposed to be the 500 pound gorillas that were insurmountable. Don't know about you but I have been through that period and I know what it was then. I would leave you to watch the recent interview of Charlie Rose with Bill Gates to know about the success of Windows Phone (mind you I have a Nokia Windows 8 phone so I know exactly what their shortcomings are - and I don't see those shortcomings in Blackberry - in fact BB10 has taken Windows, iPhone and Android's interfaces to the next level of generalization - bringing in seamless integration between and capability to extend apps, features and functionality).
3. Emerging Markets have heightened competition as well
Apple is a standing example of success where people will pay to buy quality. One has to use the Blackberry to really understand how much it facilitates your day to day life over and above being just a phone. There will always be competition, value is in the minds of us human beings there are 80 million of those out there, and, with BB10 there is at least 20-25% potential to get others to buy into BB10 story - we will know about this very soon. Blackberry doesn't want to play in the commoditized market - let Nokia, Samsung, and other local operators fight it out in that market. Blackberry provides a compelling play for those who want Android++ capabilities. As time goes by it will become more compelling.
4. Size - it is not about outspending
Look at Microsoft v/s Apple (during Apple's initial days) - Microsoft did try to outspend Apple but look what happened. Android may be free but it is really not free - people are giving away their right to their personal information to Google - if you are happy to give away your information by buying Android phones so be it. Google will give anything to know what you are breathing, eating, chatting, reading, writing, etc. even if that means giving you an Android phone for free. If you think China dumps goods on other countries - Google is similar to China in that it dumps its technology on us folks and gets free access to valuable information - the value is in aggregates and we all haven't as yet realized that! The sooner people realize the similarity the better it will be for them.
5. Tough to be in both smartphone software and hardware
Like other points listed above, I personally beg to differ on this point as well - BB10 is both a platform and strategy - just look at the possibilities available to BB10 - I won't go into all details here. All I will say is don't be myopic in terms of looking at the current offerings but look at the future 2 to 3 years out. Do read some of the articles by Prem Watsa and you will see why he is invested so heavily in Blackberry. And given that you are an Indian you will know that he went to IIT and you know better than anybody that getting into IITs is not an easy job - he has a very good handle on technology and is a financial wizard when it comes to risk assessment - enough said. Don't compare Nokia with Blackberry - Nokia has plenty other issues which resulted them in dumping Symbian - if they had a BB10 like strategy/platform and didn't have so many people on their payroll in Europe they wouldn't have opted for Microsoft. It was more a marriage of necessity than a match made in heaven. Just look at the blog by Eld on SA and you will see what Nokia is heading up against. Blackberry only has about 11k employees with "at will" employment - Nokia has a different problem where it is very costly to fire employees. Nokia is also saddled with huge debt - Blackberry as you know has none - don't underestimate the power of zero debt, very few companies are fortunate to be in that position - that is one reason I admire both Jim and Mike (their previous co-CEOs) - apart from Mike's brilliance in conceiving the hardware and Jim's almost single handed drive in putting together a secure network for RIMM.
6. You can't be just a smartphone seller any more
In the near future we all will see what Blackberry has lined up - both in terms of software and hardware. Z10/Q10/BES10/etc. is just the start. The potential of BB10 is deep, and broad; and, spans human to machine and machine to machine boundaries all thanks to a small, muti-tasking, realtime, distributed, secure, reliable and scalable QNX. Just go and check if any OS out in the mobile space can say all this about itself.
7. Do we have room for four mobile software eco-systems
There is always room for quality - time will prove it. Take the example of IBM which got out of the PC business because frankly they lacked the imagination that Apple showed in later years with the products like iPads, iMacs, Macbook Pros, Macbook Airs. Could IBM have done that - yes they could very well have - but they are too much of a process driven company; their heart and soul is invested into other areas other than truly investing effort into productizing technology that resonates with the hearts and minds of people. In this respect, I consider this as the second coming of Blackberry - time will tell.
8. Summary:
I don't know how you came to the EV of less than $5 billion! Anyway, I won't argue with you on that; all I can say is that IMO you are assuming BB10 as complete failure and completely discounting their future cash generation potential and to a large extent the true value of their patents.
Look forward to reading your response.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
I think this delay is helping Blackberry to release a new update that includes the latest Android support and helps them to add some important apps like WhatsApp, (probably) Netflix and Skype and another 25k to 30k additional Android apps. I hope people here in US will realize the benefit of buying a Blackberry over a Android only phone in that they get the benefit of both an Android platform plus all the virtues of being a Blackberry.
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
Why do you call it as a marketing failure? The author has mentioned his personal opinion about the Super Bowl Ad. and everybody has one. I guess you must have watched their Keep Moving Ad. I found it pretty interesting. BTW: I also thought that the Super Bowl Ad. was good and actually mocked the fact that they could hardly do justice to Blackberry Z10's capabilities in those 30 seconds - which I thought was very honest.
Don't under estimate the power of these celebrities to reach out to their base. Obama is a standing example of what grass root movement can achieve.
BlackBerry 10: Too Little, Too Late To Save Investors [View article]
Somebody pointed out that based on prior data the best initial launch sale that Blackberry achieved earlier was ~525k devices and Heins has been saying that the sales in Canada and UK have been excellent and that he was pleased and surprised and that the sales numbers have well gone beyond his expectations. Second, Blackberry also mentioned that their December and January sales were looking very good (which I think essentially accounts for BB7?).
More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier) [View news story]
Blackberry And Forbes: Battleground Stocks And Headline Risks [View article]
I am also a bit taken aback by the way US service providers AT&T, Verizon and Sprint (purposely?) delayed the official launch of Z10 in US. I do think that it is for the best though as I think Blackberry will integrate Jelly Bean by then and will also have lot more apps available. I sincerely hope that they can take that count to over 100k+ with additional support from Android community to port Android apps over to Blackberry. If it catches fire with the youth watch how quickly the Android apps will start mushrooming on Blackberry - then it will be time for Samsung to watch out. I am hearing that Android apps run faster on Blackberry if the benchmark numbers do turn out to show that is true then that would be a real game changer.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
a) Blackberry had all the applications that a user needs to be productive (which might have been true during a certain period of time - and personally I think this is still true, but others may very well defer)
b) Through quality of their apps and device they could maintain strong control on data/network, and cpu usage - today this is hardly a concern
When I watched some of those videos I have to say that I came out pretty impressed with his thought process - he was trying to make full use of the limited bandwidth that was available on GPRS/1.5/2G. I would bet a dollar to anybody to find another company that can match that on those networks (remember many African, Latin American and Asian countries are still humming on those networks). His favorite tag line was if you don't understand the physics of transmission you will never build efficient devices. I have read that the compression ratio that Blackberry achieves is way better than gzip and other compression tools. I have heard that Doctors without boundaries still carry Blackberry devices.
As recent history has proven people and service providers give a damn about having an efficient device (that is efficient on power consumption and data usage); they want a fancy and cool device that provides lots of apps, games, etc. There is data out there that shows that most people don't use more than a few hundred apps but the numbers (the long tail) matter for getting the bragging rights and to build a community with vested interests.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
I think Blackberry has plenty of cash and no debt - apparently Apple spent less than $500 million dollars when they first launched iPhone and thus far Apple has spent about $1 billion overall on marketing iPhone. So with that benchmark I think Blackberry will come well below that mark. Heins had also mentioned that the entire marketing expense of BB10 launch was going to be cash neutral as of last quarters cash position - will have to see what that actually means during this quarters results.
Last but not the least (if you don't mind answering) what I wanted to know was what do you advice your private investor clients - to hold buying Blackberry for now or to go outright and short it?
Also, you know that Prem Watsa and Francis Chou are both invested in Blackberry and Prem Watsa is on their board. What do you think is the motive driving them to be long when you personally think that Blackberry is heading toward bankruptcy (I hope I am not misquoting you). To date Prem Watsa has shown very shrewd instincts when it comes to picking stocks and knowing his technical and financial prowess I am sure he would be shepherding them in the right direction. Last but not the least Mike Lazaridis is a brilliant man as well and apparently he was a key driver behind their BB10 strategy - I some way (at least to my mind) he seems to carry the traits of both Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Do you think such brilliant minds can throw their child under the bus?
I can't help myself from writing long responses, but, your response will be very much appreciated.
Is BlackBerry Finally Back In The Game? [View article]
The small footprint makes it suitable for environments that are limited in hardware resources.