Luke, I am keeping my fingers crossed on that and I sincerely hope that is true; given that $AAPL is in their quiet period right now, I am not sure if they are allowed to say anything that can materially impact their stock (short of pre announcing their results similar to what $NOK did recently).
If Tuesday ($AAPL reports after close) goes by without a hiccup then it is very likely that $NOK will end near or well above $5.
All said and done iPhone is still a huge cash making cow for $AAPL and they don't need to cut prices just for China Mobile - because it doesn't cause a dent in their earnings. So in a way, I agree with you Luke that Tim Cook is under no pressure to cut prices and adversely affect iPhone sales margins worldwide.
My worry is that $AAPL might agree to China Mobile's terms and as a result iPhone 5 might be sold anywhere between $0 to $49 w/ contract. If that happens then I think all bets are off - as, no matter what we say, given a choice to buy an iPhone 5 at $0 (to $49) w/ contract - people are not going to hesitate to jump in. That is why I am interested in knowing if $AAPL was able to seal a deal with China Mobile - apparently Tim Cook himself travelled to China for a meeting so it means that $AAPL is serious about opening that market.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
That @Debutant and @Strike for sending in a detailed response. This just goes to show how much difference it makes to hear opinions from people who actually see what is going on the ground. Knowing the bias of media out here, I had a similar impression about Europe and I think that it will recover far quicker than most analyst over here are writing about. The opinion here is that Europe is the most fractured entity out there and that the nations that make up the union are so deep into their own vested interests that Europe is not going anywhere. But recent movements by Draghi on the monetary side and some fiscal steps taken by Greece, Spain, and Italy goes to prove that Europe is serious about fixing its issues.
A major portion of my 401(k) position is currently vested in $SAN and I am very bullish about Europe in general and plan to make additional investments in European ETFs in the coming year.
Thanks @Debutant for comments about Monti. The news I read in US media was that one of the parties was trying to get Monti on their ticket so that he could become Italy's Prime Minister. Will google "Senatore a vita Monti, and Italian elections" and get the details.
@Debutant please be careful about Gold/Silver - currently they seem to be on descending side of the parabolic curve (with stubborn resistance forming at ~$174). I personally think that the descend will start sometime in the later half of 2013 to early 2014 (assuming the economies around the world continue to mend at the pace that they are going currently). Second, all the news about huge gold buying in China and India has recently stopped in US media - earlier they were touted as the major catalyst for Gold/Silver prices going up. Full Disclosure: I have absolutely no position in Gold/Silver - either long or short.
Does anybody know if $AAPL made any headway on their talks with China Mobile? Also, although $AAPL has denied the rumors about dropping iPhone prices the rumor mill is going on about the possibility that Apple will indeed do just that - any news on that front?
If the above two things come out to be true then in the near term it is going to have an impact - especially if China Mobile decides to subsidize the prices of iPhones.
Apple is going to report on this 23rd so hopefully we will know then if not before.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
@VincentCh, @Debutant and @Strike - I had questions for you guys (since you are all from Europe) - how is the mood in Europe currently? In particular, the news in the media over here (in US) was that Germany doesn't like this and that about European Union (especially, Greece, Italy and Spain) and that it would let the European Union collapse, etc. etc. Is this just rumor mongering from these analyst or is there truth to this matter?
Also, in your opinion how much time is it going to take Europe to pull itself out of the current set of issues - high unemployment, aligning monetary policies and fiscal policies across European Union nations (we saw the ground work for that laid out last year). My guess is that the mending process has already started and that it will take another 2 years or so for things to return back to a consistent growth. High unemployment numbers in Spain of the order of 26% amongst elders and ~50% is scary. Also, what is the possibility of Catalonia splitting from Spain?
Is Mario Monti going to be elected as the Prime Minister of Italy? How about Rajoy and Angela Merkel? Are they both likely to win as well?Recent news about corruption in Prime Minister Rajoy's Popular Party (PP) is just out in the media - http://bit.ly/U9dzv7
I don't see it having been picked up by the US media (although, I picked up that link from New York Times in the section "News around the Globe" but apparently the protest is small about 1000 people marching to the PP party's headquarters). I think corruption is nothing new in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
Luke, your points are very interesting. I have to concur with Kurt on this - changes in technology are happening at a lot faster pace than they used to just a decade ago. So about 2/3 years seems to be reasonable time - I think this market is so lucrative that a lot of enterprises are going to jump on this bandwagon very soon (for all you know, Google might be doing something about this already). Like Kurt says this probably is the best kept secret by $RIMM (over these years) while it is building the infrastructure to address all those things. No wonder BB10's browser performance and compliance numbers are go good.
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
Luke, I hope by shorting $RIMM you mean you will be buying puts.
As I always say, time will tell but, my 2 cents on this is that BB10 (built on QNX - I have written a realtime OS myself and I know what goes into building an OS like QNX) is technically a far superior, reliable and resilient platform. As I mentioned, I hope that $RIMM will use $NOK maps and location platform - that will be good for both the firms and would imply an implicit backing from $MSFT. I also understand that $RIMM is going to fully support MS Office 360 (through cloud based offering). Per some bloggers it appears that Skype is coming to BB10 as well (actually, it is in the interest of $MSFT to support Skype on BB10).
Second, $RIMM has zero debt, they seem to be having good traction with $GS and have hired $JPM (and $RBC?) as their strategic advisors. Per what I understand the entire cost of BB10 launch is going to be cashflow neutral on $RIMM's account books (which to me is a huge plus as far as their March 2013 financial results go). If that is not enough $RIMM has 65% institutional ownership and 15% of the stock is owned by the employees- this leaves very little float for people like us and the shorters (the very fact that big institutions haven't sold out of $RIMM is an attestations of their future prospects). From what I understand about 150 million stocks are still shorted on $RIMM! This is like tinder lying all around waiting to catch fire.
Third, Prem Watsa is invested into $RIMM big time - he is known to be the Warren Buffett of Canada. Prem is also on their board since Jan '12. Prem is a very intelligent guy and both an engineer (from IIT, India) and a chartered accountant. If that is not enough, Prem was a director at ICICI - one of the premier financial institutions in India - equivalent of $JPM - and was part of their risk management division (only the very best get picked to be part of the risk management division). Knowing his background and calibre I am certain that he will be the last person to take such a huge position if he had known that $RIMM is a train wreck waiting to happen - being a director now I think he knows a lot more about $RIMM's future plans. Also, his break even is somewhere in the $18 range!
The more I read about $RIMM the more I am convinced that they are taking the right steps. Also be aware that a lot of carriers have willingly signed up to carry BB10 devices and have also agreed to put their own skin in the game (all that without them having to sign up for a "Hero" like status with the likes of AT&T). Thorsten Heins has clearly indicated that his first priority is to go after the Enterprise - and that by itself should keep $RIMM busy for at least 2 years or more.
Last but not the least as far as security goes IMO they are way ahead of others.
Cisco is yearning to make their name in the mobility space and with what $RIMM has to offer and how much they depend on $RIMM's QNX I won't be surprised if they become one of the suitors for $RIMM in the very near future! I am a big time shareholder of Cisco and I sincerely hope that they will buy out $RIMM (although, knowing John's history I think he will hesitate to take this bold step).
As you know, I am (hopelessly :) long $NOK and $RIMM.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Very valid point @Debutant :) The way Spain was able to sell its bonds recently it shows that the market seem to be confident about Europe's progress. Of all things Greece's debt was upgraded recently! With all the banks on the path to healing I think things are going to brighten up sooner than later. IMO, markets tend to over punish stocks on any bad news and also tend to correct itself when things show signs of improvement. I guess since things had been on the downtrend since late 2008, after about 4 and half years there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
Actually there is another possibility - Google is getting a lot of heat from Oracle for using Java. With the capability provided by RIMM to move/port Android apps to BB10 I think Google might be actually happy that Android apps can now be run on BB10 and that they can have the issue with Oracle behind them (eventually)! So, if RIMM does decide to license BB10 platform to other hardware manufacturers it might actually open an entirely new market for RIMM. Just a thought.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Thanks a lot @Debutant and @VincentCh for providing all those details. @VincentCh I agree that the drop to Euro3.55 was a pure once in a lifetime opportunity (for folks like me). Like you @VincentCh I think $SAN should be above $10 by end of 2013 - lets see.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
$SAN hasn't dropped after going ex-dividend last week which seems to be a good sign and portends to improving conditions in Europe and around the world in general.
@VincentCh, @Debutant what is your take on $SAN's stock price end of 2013? IMO it should be north of $10.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Thanks @VincentCh. I had called JPMorgan who handles dividends for $SAN here in US and they mentioned that my last dividend (which I received on Nov' 13th 2012) would be paid in $SAN shares and the next 2 dividends (this one included) will be paid in shares as well. But after that I will have to call them before every dividend ex-date to inform them how I would like the dividend to be processed - which sounded rather odd to me.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Per my understanding the last one, this one and the next one will be paid in $SAN stocks and not in cash; after that, you can choose to receive in cash (if you are not in spain(/europe?) this results in 20% spanish tax), or get stocks and then sell those later. The later option is better for those in US as you can avoid the 20% spanish tax. Since I am in US I prefer to take my dividend as stocks. BTW: does anybody know when the dividend payment will be made? (i.e., when will it land in our brokerage accounts?) - I expect it somewhere around Feb '13th 2013.
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
If Tuesday ($AAPL reports after close) goes by without a hiccup then it is very likely that $NOK will end near or well above $5.
All said and done iPhone is still a huge cash making cow for $AAPL and they don't need to cut prices just for China Mobile - because it doesn't cause a dent in their earnings. So in a way, I agree with you Luke that Tim Cook is under no pressure to cut prices and adversely affect iPhone sales margins worldwide.
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
A major portion of my 401(k) position is currently vested in $SAN and I am very bullish about Europe in general and plan to make additional investments in European ETFs in the coming year.
Thanks @Debutant for comments about Monti. The news I read in US media was that one of the parties was trying to get Monti on their ticket so that he could become Italy's Prime Minister. Will google "Senatore a vita Monti, and Italian elections" and get the details.
@Debutant please be careful about Gold/Silver - currently they seem to be on descending side of the parabolic curve (with stubborn resistance forming at ~$174). I personally think that the descend will start sometime in the later half of 2013 to early 2014 (assuming the economies around the world continue to mend at the pace that they are going currently). Second, all the news about huge gold buying in China and India has recently stopped in US media - earlier they were touted as the major catalyst for Gold/Silver prices going up. Full Disclosure: I have absolutely no position in Gold/Silver - either long or short.
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
If the above two things come out to be true then in the near term it is going to have an impact - especially if China Mobile decides to subsidize the prices of iPhones.
Apple is going to report on this 23rd so hopefully we will know then if not before.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Also, in your opinion how much time is it going to take Europe to pull itself out of the current set of issues - high unemployment, aligning monetary policies and fiscal policies across European Union nations (we saw the ground work for that laid out last year). My guess is that the mending process has already started and that it will take another 2 years or so for things to return back to a consistent growth. High unemployment numbers in Spain of the order of 26% amongst elders and ~50% is scary. Also, what is the possibility of Catalonia splitting from Spain?
Is Mario Monti going to be elected as the Prime Minister of Italy? How about Rajoy and Angela Merkel? Are they both likely to win as well?Recent news about corruption in Prime Minister Rajoy's Popular Party (PP) is just out in the media - http://bit.ly/U9dzv7
I don't see it having been picked up by the US media (although, I picked up that link from New York Times in the section "News around the Globe" but apparently the protest is small about 1000 people marching to the PP party's headquarters). I think corruption is nothing new in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
As I always say, time will tell but, my 2 cents on this is that BB10 (built on QNX - I have written a realtime OS myself and I know what goes into building an OS like QNX) is technically a far superior, reliable and resilient platform. As I mentioned, I hope that $RIMM will use $NOK maps and location platform - that will be good for both the firms and would imply an implicit backing from $MSFT. I also understand that $RIMM is going to fully support MS Office 360 (through cloud based offering). Per some bloggers it appears that Skype is coming to BB10 as well (actually, it is in the interest of $MSFT to support Skype on BB10).
Second, $RIMM has zero debt, they seem to be having good traction with $GS and have hired $JPM (and $RBC?) as their strategic advisors. Per what I understand the entire cost of BB10 launch is going to be cashflow neutral on $RIMM's account books (which to me is a huge plus as far as their March 2013 financial results go). If that is not enough $RIMM has 65% institutional ownership and 15% of the stock is owned by the employees- this leaves very little float for people like us and the shorters (the very fact that big institutions haven't sold out of $RIMM is an attestations of their future prospects). From what I understand about 150 million stocks are still shorted on $RIMM! This is like tinder lying all around waiting to catch fire.
Third, Prem Watsa is invested into $RIMM big time - he is known to be the Warren Buffett of Canada. Prem is also on their board since Jan '12. Prem is a very intelligent guy and both an engineer (from IIT, India) and a chartered accountant. If that is not enough, Prem was a director at ICICI - one of the premier financial institutions in India - equivalent of $JPM - and was part of their risk management division (only the very best get picked to be part of the risk management division). Knowing his background and calibre I am certain that he will be the last person to take such a huge position if he had known that $RIMM is a train wreck waiting to happen - being a director now I think he knows a lot more about $RIMM's future plans. Also, his break even is somewhere in the $18 range!
The more I read about $RIMM the more I am convinced that they are taking the right steps. Also be aware that a lot of carriers have willingly signed up to carry BB10 devices and have also agreed to put their own skin in the game (all that without them having to sign up for a "Hero" like status with the likes of AT&T). Thorsten Heins has clearly indicated that his first priority is to go after the Enterprise - and that by itself should keep $RIMM busy for at least 2 years or more.
Last but not the least as far as security goes IMO they are way ahead of others.
Cisco is yearning to make their name in the mobility space and with what $RIMM has to offer and how much they depend on $RIMM's QNX I won't be surprised if they become one of the suitors for $RIMM in the very near future! I am a big time shareholder of Cisco and I sincerely hope that they will buy out $RIMM (although, knowing John's history I think he will hesitate to take this bold step).
As you know, I am (hopelessly :) long $NOK and $RIMM.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
@VincentCh, @Debutant what is your take on $SAN's stock price end of 2013? IMO it should be north of $10.
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]
Banco Santander: A 10.8% Yield, But Can It Last? [View article]