Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
In the recent interview he also said that the strategy has now shifted from thinking about selling the company (the sum of parts thesis) to one where they want to capitalize on all the market opportunities that are out there. This is yet another bullish sign and lays to bed all the naysayers who had written off $BBRY.
I see Z10 as the icing on the cake - all diehard $BBRY fans who are hooked to the keyboard are going in for the Q10s. If $BBRY shows that they have not only arrested the hemorrhage but show a growth in the subscriber base of both BB7s and BB10s then that by itself will be a huge positive. I think Thorsten knows this is true and that is why he seems so relaxed. I won't be surprised if the subscriber base jumps above 85 million.
Yes indeed. Unfortunately, or SEC is so heavily under staffed at this time that it has no way to enforce/regulate all this.
Wait for Android Jelly Bean to become available on BB10 in the next couple of weeks - after that you will see lot more Android apps on the Z10 and Q10. Another 6 months and you will have about 300/400k apps available on $BBRY.
There is a category of customers who say buy a new plan - like I last year bought a new plan for my kid - if I choose to buy a Z10 then as far as $BBRY is concerned it is a contract that is choosing $BBRY over other competing platform. So when they say they see 50% move over from other platform - it is for those customers where they could concretely link them to such a switch. Here in US I have to give additional information to the provider if I am switching over my phone line from another provider to ensure that the switch over happens by the switch over date. So, in such situation $BBRY does know where the customer came from and what they were using previously.
If you end up buying say a Z10 then irrespective of whether you buy from BestBuy, Costco, Walmart, Amazon, etc. - the service providers do know - if you are upgrading, buying a new plan or switching from another service provider and as soon as you complete the transaction this data is accessible to the companies. Also, remember that $BBRY receives this data from multiple service providers so they also get a view of the overall movement occurring between service providers, plans, etc. (for effectiveness of their pricing and the kinds of services that the customers are opting for). Remember when you switch you prefer to carry your phone number along.
@Systembolaget, either ways it is good for Blackberry because if they continue with their old device they continue to pay for the BIS service. That is one reason I think Blackberry still continues to sell the Bold in store for $199 - because it bundles their BIS service.
This ensures that $BBRY's service revenue continues.
Is there something incorrect in my analysis of the situation?
Who is not desperate @Marcap? Apple is desperate, Tim Cook wants to show that Apple will thrive without Steve Jobs. Samsung is desperate to get out of the shadows of Google. Google is desperate to ensure that its search dominance and proliferation of Androids continues. Microsoft is desperate to ensure that its mobile strategy centered around Windows 8 works. Heck even you and I are desperate to ensure that we can earn a living to have food, shelter and clothing. Blackberry is no different, we have our share of comebacks in our lives and we know how it feels when the chips are down. But one does whatever they can to get the mojo back and in case of Blackberry they have put together BB10 as their strategy, and platform for that comeback. You may not want to give 'em a chance or even care about 'em and that is okay. So far the tea leaves are pointing in the right direction.
@Marcap - there is no need for $BBRY to take a survey - service providers have all that data available in real-time and they do indeed share such data with the companies like Blackberry. That is one reason why Thorsten keeps saying he is receiving early indications and he is waiting for more data to come in to call it a trend. As you know, in this connected world a lot of things happen in (near) real-time, gone are the days of manually surveying, cataloging, collating, inferring, putting together reports, and distributing those reports to concerned parties - all of this now happens automatically - that is how companies today can measure the effectiveness of a marketing campaign to the level of dollars and cents, etc.
Thanks Maltzberger for responding back. To tell you frankly my experience with the AT&T sales people in the stores has been so horrendous that I will never, never ever step into those stores to purchase anything. I have had extremely repulsive experience while buying my first iPhone, while getting a refund on my kid's contract and recently when I went to the Pleasanton, CA AT&T store early march - the AT&T rep. lied to me on my face saying that in his system he has information that the Z10 won't be sold until the first week of April! I even joked with him - "you are not pulling an April Fool on me right" - with a dead pane face he said no. That very Monday Bloomberg reported that AT&T was going to start selling it from March 22nd. Since they know you are a captive audience the customer care part is up in the air for these guys. That is why I admire Apple because it was Apple who kicked in the pants of AT&T and got them to comply to their terms - but then there is only one Steve Jobs who can do that.
That is why I bought my Z10 from Costco at least they won't deal with me like a convict if I do go to them for assistance with the phone.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
Thanks Canadian Forever and Yurij. If you want to know how Blackberry is doing just go an look at the interview that Thorsten gave after the last quarter where he appears all serious and look at the recent interviews he has given - he is all smiles - that says it all. Recently he has said that $BBRY's strategy has changed from trying to find a buyer/partner for $BBRY to taking about what we can do with all the opportunities that are out there!
As we will know from the upcoming call BB7s are still selling which means BIS revenue is not going anywhere soon!
With such a small float even small positive steps will cause substantial moves in $BBRY stock.
Haven't we seen this trend with WSJ and Guardian all along @skylark99? I personally would hate to go out in cold and queue outside a store to buy the phone. I would rather have it delivered to my house. Mind you I stay in the Bay Area, CA :)
Don't worry they did the exact same thing with Nokia. Actually, with Nokia I went to quite a few AT&T stores and AT&T was so bad that they wouldn't even charge up those phones! With Blackberry they are at least aware that Z10 was coming.
I thought I would never say this but I truly believe that the stock is being heavily manipulated - classic Cramer style. All they have to do is to start the downward movement with a sizable order and then let the domino effect of stop losses take over. I hope SEC will seriously investigate the trading tapes and these well timed media reports and those reporters.
Wow! you do seem to make animated conversations with the sales people in the store. I don't know about you but I usually don't have such conversations with sales people. Anyway, numbers will speak for themselves soon. I for one booked my order online without walking into the store - I did go to two Costco and one AT&T store to enquire about the Z10 last week and then I ordered it online from Costco. I think there will be quite a few like me who are ordering it online. But well, I don't want to spoil your experience.
I guess your next post will be - "after you went back to the store to now buy the new Z10 I heard the same story and so I decided no point in buying this loser" :)
Have a wonderful family time watching Les Miserables with your family.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
Yes, indeed. The only thing to be aware though is the following:
1. Total stock float 525 million
2. Prem Watsa owns about 100 million+ of this stock (that leaves about ~425 million)
3. Mike Lazaridis holds 25 million (that leaves 400 million)
4. All the other guru investors collectively hold approx. 100+ million (that leaves 300 million)
5. $BBRY employees hold another 5% (I think it is 10+% but ignore that) - (that leaves ~275 million).
6. Almost 50% (137 million) of 275 million are shorted!
7. With $3 billion in cash - and growing (this is about $5.50+ included in the price of this stock) - so the market is evaluating $BBRY at ~$11. IMO, that is a very low valuation. Also, remember that $BBRY generates ~$3.1 billion of free cash flow every year. If we agree that $BBRY is not going anywhere in the next two years and that the free cash flow just stays where it is currently you will have recovered the entire value of your current investment!
8. Now consider what could happen if mutual funds start building position in $BBRY by next quarter or so?
9. Prem Watsa is a value investor which means it is very likely that $BBRY will start paying dividends in the next year or so (or better yet do some stock repurchase at the current price level).
10. Even if $BBRY can maintain its current level of Blackberry users (80 million) it is still huge - IMO, that is one primary reason $MS upgraded them to over weight - because I think they have realized that Blackberry will be able to retain its user base.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
I see Z10 as the icing on the cake - all diehard $BBRY fans who are hooked to the keyboard are going in for the Q10s. If $BBRY shows that they have not only arrested the hemorrhage but show a growth in the subscriber base of both BB7s and BB10s then that by itself will be a huge positive. I think Thorsten knows this is true and that is why he seems so relaxed. I won't be surprised if the subscriber base jumps above 85 million.
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
Wait for Android Jelly Bean to become available on BB10 in the next couple of weeks - after that you will see lot more Android apps on the Z10 and Q10. Another 6 months and you will have about 300/400k apps available on $BBRY.
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
This ensures that $BBRY's service revenue continues.
Is there something incorrect in my analysis of the situation?
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
That is why I bought my Z10 from Costco at least they won't deal with me like a convict if I do go to them for assistance with the phone.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
As we will know from the upcoming call BB7s are still selling which means BIS revenue is not going anywhere soon!
With such a small float even small positive steps will cause substantial moves in $BBRY stock.
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
Don't worry they did the exact same thing with Nokia. Actually, with Nokia I went to quite a few AT&T stores and AT&T was so bad that they wouldn't even charge up those phones! With Blackberry they are at least aware that Z10 was coming.
I thought I would never say this but I truly believe that the stock is being heavily manipulated - classic Cramer style. All they have to do is to start the downward movement with a sizable order and then let the domino effect of stop losses take over. I hope SEC will seriously investigate the trading tapes and these well timed media reports and those reporters.
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
I guess your next post will be - "after you went back to the store to now buy the new Z10 I heard the same story and so I decided no point in buying this loser" :)
Have a wonderful family time watching Les Miserables with your family.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
1. Total stock float 525 million
2. Prem Watsa owns about 100 million+ of this stock (that leaves about ~425 million)
3. Mike Lazaridis holds 25 million (that leaves 400 million)
4. All the other guru investors collectively hold approx. 100+ million (that leaves 300 million)
5. $BBRY employees hold another 5% (I think it is 10+% but ignore that) - (that leaves ~275 million).
6. Almost 50% (137 million) of 275 million are shorted!
7. With $3 billion in cash - and growing (this is about $5.50+ included in the price of this stock) - so the market is evaluating $BBRY at ~$11. IMO, that is a very low valuation. Also, remember that $BBRY generates ~$3.1 billion of free cash flow every year. If we agree that $BBRY is not going anywhere in the next two years and that the free cash flow just stays where it is currently you will have recovered the entire value of your current investment!
8. Now consider what could happen if mutual funds start building position in $BBRY by next quarter or so?
9. Prem Watsa is a value investor which means it is very likely that $BBRY will start paying dividends in the next year or so (or better yet do some stock repurchase at the current price level).
10. Even if $BBRY can maintain its current level of Blackberry users (80 million) it is still huge - IMO, that is one primary reason $MS upgraded them to over weight - because I think they have realized that Blackberry will be able to retain its user base.