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  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    Didn't Prem Watsa say that all he expects is Blackberry to have 5% of the global smartphone market in 2016? I don't think that is a big ask.

    With ~2.7 million BB10 devices sold $BBRY was still able to add 200 million dollars to its cash balance. So even though the naysayers have been writing $BBRY's obituary for a long time it still seems to be quite resilient and growing q/q.

    Having said that, it is sad that the bulls have been badly bruised and for some of us (who are in this for the long term) we have a paper loss and while for others (short term or who don't see any hope) they just booked their losses and walked away. Is the stock way undervalued - you bet it is - in the end what is on the books doesn't matter, what matters is how the company is perceived by the market as far as its future goes. Perception usually takes a long time to change.

    Just to be clear Blackberry didn't misguide the market - it is the market (analyst) that stepped ahead of itself.
    Jul 4, 2013. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why We Are Not Selling Our Shares  [View article]
    The latest Z-Score per Guru Focus is 2.86 and the F-Score is 2.0.
    Jul 3, 2013. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    @Tufenk, I think the short interest should have dropped substantially. Why do you think the short interest is still high?
    Jul 3, 2013. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    He had also said "buy, buy, buy..." about Lehman and Bear and Sterns. Since early this year Cramer also asked people to buy gold when gold was trading at a high price. The other Cramer - Hillary Cramer is also in the same league. We all very well know what Mr. Cramer is here in America - so I would take what he says with not just a pinch but bucket full of salt :)
    Jul 3, 2013. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    That article is dated April 12th, 2013.

    Having said that, I don't think Watsa is going to exit $BBRY anytime soon.
    Jul 2, 2013. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: More Devices, More Data, And More Revenue  [View article]
    @Tufenk, IMO, I think such knee jerk reaction will only cause panic. I am certain that dividends will come sooner than later (2015).
    Jul 2, 2013. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    I agree with you Infinity Group. I am of the same opinion. I think the Z10 is a really good device and I can tell you from my personal experience that all my friends and colleagues (including those who own Apple devices) who have held my Z10 and played with it like it a lot. The only thing that holds them back from buying the Z10 is the availability of the apps that they like - they want an easier way to be able to side load Android apps right from the device rather than having to first attach it to a Mac/PC. They also prefer having Jelly Bean support. I have asked them to hold on until A10 comes out with hardware acceleration support for Jelly Bean platform.

    I am very surprised that Michael made such comments about Z10 inventory build without doing prior due diligence on this.

    Just look at the Geographic Revenue Breakdown and, IMO, for a company that has been written off to be DOA, it is very decent:

    Time and time again I have been saying that Prem Watsa is on Blackberry's board - he will not let such inventory build to happen at Blackberry. They are very cautious folks and are running on a lean inventory.

    People should be very weary of folks like Ashraf who is just in it for "pump and dump" - nothing wrong with it but folks should be well aware of his motives. In that, I will any day prefer to read sage advice from folks like Mr. KnowItAll, @Systembolaget and @Seppo2. At least we know where they are coming from.

    Michael, frankly, you are a lot better than this - I guess this article was your low point and I won't blame you for this knee jerk reaction.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He  [View article]
    Michael, any concrete data to share on why you believe that there are about a million+ Z10s sitting on Blackberry's inventory? IMO, the full touch device like the Z10 is a must. Personally, I was drawn to buying a Z10 and get a "taste" of Blackberry's echo system after seeing the Z10. Blackberry also needs the full touch device in order to provide a rich gaming experience. I am looking forward to the A10, in the meantime, I am happy with my Z10.
    Jul 2, 2013. 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why We Are Not Selling Our Shares  [View article]
    Tone down your language pvshah, no need to call somebody stupid - it is very easy to hurl insults at others and usually difficult to objectively reason it out. Usually, price on a given product/commodity is not set out of ether - there is usually sound market study and reasoning that goes behind that which includes demand analysis, promotions, volume discounting, market segmentation, service bundling, cost structure, etc. Ask somebody who is well worse at pricing products and they will tell you what goes into deciding the price.

    As a share holder who hasn't sold a single share of Blackberry (and doesn't intend to do so anytime soon), I believe that, given all the negativity that is being fomented in the media, Blackberry delivered a decent results - and in this respect, I completely concur with Tufenk's assessment of Q1 results. To me personally it has shown that - that which they can control and manage Blackberry has hit a home run (you all may choose to disagree). There are certain things that are well beyond its control and it has to just keep chipping away. All OSes (iOS, Android) have taken time to mature and thrive - in the near term, the market is in no mood to listen to reasons.

    Anyway, just my 2 cents, take it for whatever it is worth.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY): FQ1 EPS of -$0.13 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $3.1B misses by $0.26B. (PR[View news story]
    If that is indeed the case then I think the Z10 sold either better than or equal to in Q4 2013 - the sell-through in Q4 was about 700k for a total sell-in of 1 million. This time around they sold 2.7 million in 3 months which would mean that either Z10 sales were around the same pace of 700k/mo. = 2.1 million for Z10s and 600k of Q10s sold.

    In Q4 of 2013 $BBRY reported sell-in to the channels so I am a bit surprised why they reported a sell-through this time around.
    Jun 30, 2013. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY): FQ1 EPS of -$0.13 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $3.1B misses by $0.26B. (PR[View news story]
    Chris, I believe that little detail is a very important factor. This quarter had only 1 week of Q10 sales. So essentially what $BBRY reported should account for 70% to 80% of Z10 sales.

    My only concerns about that call were:
    1. No guidance on the next quarter - which means they are still waiting on orders to close for this quarter
    2. They didn't give a breakdown of sell-in v/s sell-through

    Do you know what he meant when Thorsten mentioned that Blackberry would breakeven this quarter?
    Jun 28, 2013. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $0.25 EPS Is All I Want For Q1F2014  [View instapost]
    @sonbuster, you should have submitted this as an article on SA! As always, very insightful content. Glad to have had an opportunity to meet up with some very knowledgeable folks like yourself and many others on SA - it is amazing how much people are willing to share. Your gratitude is deeply appreciated - thanks for taking the time to write this instablog. Next time around it would be my pleasure to hopefully be the "first" to respond to your first article on SA!

    Tomorrow whatever happens - I am certain that it is a journey where we are in it together and that in by itself is a huge gain! Thank you my friend.
    Jun 28, 2013. 12:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry And The Hardware Game  [View article]
    @StormanNorman, do you own a Z10/Q10? Could you provide some datapoints on your comment about "Blackberry makes inferior products at too high a price" - I have extensively used an iPhone, Nokia Lumia 900/920 and a Z10 so want to understand you line of thought.
    Jun 27, 2013. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry And The Hardware Game  [View article]
    Yes, @sph0308. Both Nokia and Blackberry have their strengths and that is why I am bullish on both.
    Jun 27, 2013. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Names With Sharp Rises In Short Interest  [View article]
    This linear rise in short interest on $BBRY is hard to believe given that there are so many products that are due to be released or have already been released and the acceptance outside of US is rather decent. The media and analyst have been working in tandem to do everything they can to tarnish the brand to the best of their abilities yet these same analyst and media people hide their Blackberrys (and in almost all cases are also upgrading their's to the Q10). In some weird sense when things are too good to be true then it is time to watch out because it usually is a trap that is being laid for you. IMO, a perfect bear trap has been set - if the media and the analysts are making things look really bad and you fall for it then usually you are the one who is being taken for a ride. I believe the time has come for the bears to learn this lesson and the taste is going to be quite bitter to swallow.
    Jun 27, 2013. 02:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment