Can you please tell me how you did your early checks? Let me tell you something - I am trying to pre-order a Z10 and AT&T won't allow me do it because I am a premier customer :)
Also, I am hearing on other boards that people who have pre-ordered their Z10s are receiving notification from AT&T that their order delivery has been pushed out because of higher volume of pre-orders.
It's Too Early To Get Excited About BlackBerry's Revival [View article]
Orders of that size are not signed impulsively; usually it takes weeks to finalize and process such things. I very much doubt that, if it is indeed AT&T, they based it on pre-orders.
It's Too Early To Get Excited About BlackBerry's Revival [View article]
@cereal, I had a Lumia 900 and now I have a Lumia 920 and I can tell you what you are stating about Lumia 920 is not factual - let me leave it at that. (BTW: the battery life on the Lumia 920 is not good either - I can tell you some of the ways I am able to quickly drain the battery on my Lumia 920. So before we poke holes in other castles lets be sure that our own house is in order - mind you that Lumia 920 has a slightly higher capacity battery. I can assure you that I saw the same issue on iPhone as well. Lets not talk about Samsung SG3 because that too faces similar issues.)
BlackBerry Z10 Goes On Sale, But BlackBerry Is Not For Sale [View article]
@prophet81 - I don't believe we saw a short squeeze today. It was just the high frequency traders jumping in. The actual short squeeze, if it ever materializes, is yet to come.
If that truly is SGS IV then I completely agree with you @Systembolaget that both Nokia and Blackberry have nothing to worry about. Also if you read through the related links it says that the phone doesn't use those 8 cores at the same time anyway - so I guess it is just a gimmick to add more cores as a differentiator. Over and above that it has the same cheap plastic back and a monster of a battery just to keep those 8 cores humming!
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
Thanks Money Investor for taking time to respond. Actually, I was under the impression that BB7 sales were pretty good during the Dec and Jan period (I also thought Thorsten Heins mentioned about that) - so I guess the overall subscriber numbers (BB7 and BB10) might actually be good. Like you said, actual subscribers on BB10 may be lower than the inventory that the channels are holding currently. If we don't consider seasonality then based on month to month breakdown and a 25% conversion rate per year (from BB7 to BB10) and given the fact that Feb is a short month - BB10 should clock between 1.25M to 1.5M or if they really did well then it could be as high as 1.67M. Again, this is just a guess on my part we will see how the numbers actually turnout this quarter.
Second, I distinctly remember Thorsten mentioning that the entire BB10 launch is going to have no appreciable impact on their existing cash position.
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
Excellent article Money Investor!
Could you please share some insights about revenues from other streams like BES 10 (especially with BYOD becoming a fad) , BB Money (and tie with Visa), Apps, Music, Movies (and Books/Magazine/Auctions? in the future). What about licensing deal with say Sony for exclusive rights to Japanese (and say the Chinese) market.
This may not be quantifiable but how would Net Promoter Score further add to the revenues. So far, this score is pretty high in Canada, UK, UAE and other countries.
If we assume only 25% of existing BB7 customers move over to BB10 every year we are still looking at about 75% services revenue stream next year and so on. So IMO, analyst are heavily discounting services revenue.
Last but not the least, an important factor to consider this quarter would be to confirm if Blackberry will finally manage to show an uptick in number of people carrying Blackberry phones from 79 million to say 85 million (as an example) - that I think will be a critical factor to consider if the balance sheet calculations and projections have to stay viable and continue to grow in the future. If they show continued bleeding (which I very much doubt) then all these calculations and justifications will be meaningless.
How Many $BBRY Users Are Switching To IOS/Android? [View instapost]
Both George K. and Michael C. have talked about the Lenovo angle. In my opinion it is more likely that $BBRY may signup some licensing deal with both Lenovo and Sony - I am not certain in what shape it will be realized though.
One thing is certain, in the near term (just before the results) the sentiment on this stock will be largely driven by how sales number start clocking on AT&T (and soon to be announced release date on Verizon). If those numbers start showing up to be positive (which I believe they will) then it is very likely that $BBRY will jump to $18 very quickly before the results (regaining its lost ground).
In yesterday's action, I saw that both the short term speculators and shorts were throwing their stock at the bid price and $BBRY still managed to climb to $14.90. The volume off the gate was very high as well - both being very positive indicators - this seems to be buy on the news euphoria at this time. If March 28th results and future guidance is solid then a lot of them might hold on to their stocks rather than selling them and this could result in some short cover rally which could propel the stock between $20 to $25 post results. (I am purely basing this on the FCF of $3B+ and a multiplier of ~8). The current put/call premiums are very high indicating that the markets are covering themselves on both sides of the equation - this will provide further legs to the overall rally (if it does come to pass).
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
@robbieboggie, we did see a drop in $BBRY stock price after the downgrade by WellsFargo's analyst indicating severe drop in services revenue going forward (which thankfully open an opportunity to buy boatload of $BBRY last quarter) - recently WellsFargo came backup and revised their estimates.
@robbieboggie, I would be more than happy if it indeed turns out that I am wrong (about some powerful players taking the short position) and we do see a short squeeze that takes the stock above $20. My assumption was based on the amount of "negative" news that has been recently "planted" in well established media. I also see that a lot of folks who would like to buy the stock are waiting on the sidelines or are rather happy with short term trading plays.
BTW: @robbieboggie, you had presented an excellent financial breakdown a while back - is it still valid or would you like to update/revise it upward and repost it based on what we have seen recently with the Z10 launch. It would be helpful if you can repost that with some addendum based on your recent thoughts.
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
The site shortsqueeze.com shows the total shares float count as ~485 million from that take out ~100+ million owned by Prem Watsa. That leaves only about 385 million outstanding shares (another ~100 million are held by other Guru investors but I will like to ignore those - because they are not "value" investors and will very likely sell if the stock doubles from here). So rounding the numbers upwards the actual float available is actually about 400 million.
Blackberry has ~3 billion dollars in cash which is equal to ~$6. So, if you deduct that then the market is currently valuing $BBRY @ ~$7. Personally, I believe that is a very low price if you discount the yearly cash inflow and the patent value.
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
As far as the 28th March, 2013 results go - I think the analyst will ask details on following line items:
1. Was there a pickup in net subscriber numbers on BB7 and BB10: Based Thorsten Hein's comments I think both BB7 and BB10 should show a nice uptick (IMO, BB10 should be well north of 800k - ~1.25/1.33 million). WellsFargo's analyst had doubted $BBRY could maintain their services revenue. A big win would be if new BB10 sign-ups equal new BB7 sign-ups - which would mean transition over to BB10 is effectively neutral on services revenue. Not sure if $BBRY will provide guidance (and breakdown) on Blackberry World's pickup in revenue stream due to BB10 related apps and services.
2. What was the Net Promoter Score (NPS) and how does that translate into net number of BB10/Z10 devices sold to non $BBRY customers. It should also provide an indication of the market share that $BBRY was able to regain in this quarter (for BB7) and since Jan 30th (for BB10/Z10).
3. What was the cost of BB10 launch and what was its net impact on cash. Per Thorsten's earlier comments - I believe this should be net cash neutral - that would be a big plus.
4. How is $BBRY doing on its cost cutting program - I believe this will be positive as well (to the tune of $100 to $200 million).
5. How are initial sales of Q10 in Canadian, UK and other markets holding up; also, initial sales in Indonesia from 15th March will be an important milestone.
6. Guidance for the following quarter and year. Clarity on US launch dates for Z10 (before the results) and Q10 will be essential. I am a bit worried here because although Thorsten keeps on saying the carriers VZ and AT&T are helping out $BBRY - IMO it is not the case. I think for some reason they are purposely trying to delay (especially, AT&T - who has a GSM/LTE network in place).
Even if $BBRY hits a perfect score on all the above points I don't believe there is going to be a "short squeeze" - now I truly believe that some very powerful players are vested on the short side - so very likely they will ensure that the rise in stock price will be capped below $20. Time will tell how this plays out.
@john001, it is certainly possible that our President can sway the Black, Latino, and some percentage of highly educated Men and Women here. I don't think he will sway the younger generation though - his own daughter uses an iPhone (that is a tough nut to crack - but they will come along too in due course of time :)
The very fact that the President and a lot of congressman continue to use Blackberry is a strong attestation of the brand. Looks like with Angela Markel joining in soon the EU will also jump on the Z10/Q10 bandwagon. As they say - we are in very good company - the company of influencers and never underestimate the power that they weld. Market is largely discounting this so far.
Where Is BlackBerry Heading? [View article]
Also, I am hearing on other boards that people who have pre-ordered their Z10s are receiving notification from AT&T that their order delivery has been pushed out because of higher volume of pre-orders.
It's Too Early To Get Excited About BlackBerry's Revival [View article]
It's Too Early To Get Excited About BlackBerry's Revival [View article]
BTW: I am long $NOK.
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
BlackBerry Z10 Goes On Sale, But BlackBerry Is Not For Sale [View article]
BlackBerry: Lenovo Can't Afford It, Buying Opportunity Coming [View article]
BlackBerry: Lenovo Can't Afford It, Buying Opportunity Coming [View article]
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
Second, I distinctly remember Thorsten mentioning that the entire BB10 launch is going to have no appreciable impact on their existing cash position.
BlackBerry - Balance Sheet And Future Cash Flows Should Stop You From Shorting [View article]
Could you please share some insights about revenues from other streams like BES 10 (especially with BYOD becoming a fad) , BB Money (and tie with Visa), Apps, Music, Movies (and Books/Magazine/Auctions? in the future). What about licensing deal with say Sony for exclusive rights to Japanese (and say the Chinese) market.
This may not be quantifiable but how would Net Promoter Score further add to the revenues. So far, this score is pretty high in Canada, UK, UAE and other countries.
If we assume only 25% of existing BB7 customers move over to BB10 every year we are still looking at about 75% services revenue stream next year and so on. So IMO, analyst are heavily discounting services revenue.
Last but not the least, an important factor to consider this quarter would be to confirm if Blackberry will finally manage to show an uptick in number of people carrying Blackberry phones from 79 million to say 85 million (as an example) - that I think will be a critical factor to consider if the balance sheet calculations and projections have to stay viable and continue to grow in the future. If they show continued bleeding (which I very much doubt) then all these calculations and justifications will be meaningless.
How Many $BBRY Users Are Switching To IOS/Android? [View instapost]
One thing is certain, in the near term (just before the results) the sentiment on this stock will be largely driven by how sales number start clocking on AT&T (and soon to be announced release date on Verizon). If those numbers start showing up to be positive (which I believe they will) then it is very likely that $BBRY will jump to $18 very quickly before the results (regaining its lost ground).
In yesterday's action, I saw that both the short term speculators and shorts were throwing their stock at the bid price and $BBRY still managed to climb to $14.90. The volume off the gate was very high as well - both being very positive indicators - this seems to be buy on the news euphoria at this time. If March 28th results and future guidance is solid then a lot of them might hold on to their stocks rather than selling them and this could result in some short cover rally which could propel the stock between $20 to $25 post results. (I am purely basing this on the FCF of $3B+ and a multiplier of ~8). The current put/call premiums are very high indicating that the markets are covering themselves on both sides of the equation - this will provide further legs to the overall rally (if it does come to pass).
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
@robbieboggie, I would be more than happy if it indeed turns out that I am wrong (about some powerful players taking the short position) and we do see a short squeeze that takes the stock above $20. My assumption was based on the amount of "negative" news that has been recently "planted" in well established media. I also see that a lot of folks who would like to buy the stock are waiting on the sidelines or are rather happy with short term trading plays.
BTW: @robbieboggie, you had presented an excellent financial breakdown a while back - is it still valid or would you like to update/revise it upward and repost it based on what we have seen recently with the Z10 launch. It would be helpful if you can repost that with some addendum based on your recent thoughts.
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
Blackberry has ~3 billion dollars in cash which is equal to ~$6. So, if you deduct that then the market is currently valuing $BBRY @ ~$7. Personally, I believe that is a very low price if you discount the yearly cash inflow and the patent value.
BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
1. Was there a pickup in net subscriber numbers on BB7 and BB10:
Based Thorsten Hein's comments I think both BB7 and BB10 should show a nice uptick (IMO, BB10 should be well north of 800k - ~1.25/1.33 million). WellsFargo's analyst had doubted $BBRY could maintain their services revenue. A big win would be if new BB10 sign-ups equal new BB7 sign-ups - which would mean transition over to BB10 is effectively neutral on services revenue. Not sure if $BBRY will provide guidance (and breakdown) on Blackberry World's pickup in revenue stream due to BB10 related apps and services.
2. What was the Net Promoter Score (NPS) and how does that translate into net number of BB10/Z10 devices sold to non $BBRY customers. It should also provide an indication of the market share that $BBRY was able to regain in this quarter (for BB7) and since Jan 30th (for BB10/Z10).
3. What was the cost of BB10 launch and what was its net impact on cash. Per Thorsten's earlier comments - I believe this should be net cash neutral - that would be a big plus.
4. How is $BBRY doing on its cost cutting program - I believe this will be positive as well (to the tune of $100 to $200 million).
5. How are initial sales of Q10 in Canadian, UK and other markets holding up; also, initial sales in Indonesia from 15th March will be an important milestone.
6. Guidance for the following quarter and year. Clarity on US launch dates for Z10 (before the results) and Q10 will be essential. I am a bit worried here because although Thorsten keeps on saying the carriers VZ and AT&T are helping out $BBRY - IMO it is not the case. I think for some reason they are purposely trying to delay (especially, AT&T - who has a GSM/LTE network in place).
Even if $BBRY hits a perfect score on all the above points I don't believe there is going to be a "short squeeze" - now I truly believe that some very powerful players are vested on the short side - so very likely they will ensure that the rise in stock price will be capped below $20. Time will tell how this plays out.
Some Signs BlackBerry May Be Back [View article]
The very fact that the President and a lot of congressman continue to use Blackberry is a strong attestation of the brand. Looks like with Angela Markel joining in soon the EU will also jump on the Z10/Q10 bandwagon. As they say - we are in very good company - the company of influencers and never underestimate the power that they weld. Market is largely discounting this so far.