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oneinfiniteloop

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  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @richto, any link to substantiate the claim that many CEOs and other senior executives have ditched their Blackberry?
    Jun 7 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BBRY: Why AT&T Delay May Be Good News [View instapost]
    I think you bring up an interesting point. I guess, $BBRY is trying hard to prevent inventory buildup in their channel and I guess is relying more on Just In Time production approach. This helps them to conserve on cash and also keep the analyst from fomenting rumors post results.

    I also believe that $BBRY must have got fairly accurate input from the providers about the demand from business customers. Thorsten Heins mentioned that they are looking at a demand for tens of millions of Q10 - he won't make such an off the cuff remark without some concrete input on how the demand is shaping up.
    Jun 7 01:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry, Cisco Systems And Qualcomm: Which Is The Best Bet For Now? [View article]
    Kurt, does BES 10 support this capability for iOS and Android today? Well, I guess it probably does through its Work Space container offering for iOS and Android - because you do need a way to provide a store that can allow one to manage applications that are available within a Work Space container.
    Jun 5 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Digitimes reports of a pickup in BB10-related (BBRY -3.3%) component orders, Pac Crest's James Faucette claims Asian supply chain checks indicate BB10 phone production "remains well in excess of current sell-through demand." Faucette, who aired similar comments a month ago, thinks combined sell-through for the Q10/Z10 are "well below" 500K/month, while production has remained in the 1.5M-2M/month range, though a June slowdown is expected. He thinks there's potential for a write-down similar to the $752M charge taken on BB7/PlayBook inventory last year. [View news story]
    alext1379, it does happen with companies over here as well - just look at $CSCO's stock over the last 2 to 3 years and you will hopefully see a similar pattern - I can tell you first hand that it is true because I have lived through it :) Today, the hedge fund industry is so powerful that some governments openly exhibit respect and keep a worried eye open on their activities - a while back Manmohan Singh, India's current Prime Minister (who was once India's Finance Minister and who is a financial wiz.) had made a quote that he doesn't worry much about the local politics in his country but he is more worried about the hedge funds and the rating agencies (like the Moody's) who if they decide to could reck financial havoc in India that is much more damaging than a war!

    Having said all that, I agree with you that the hedge funds will think twice before playing some mischief out here - they know to play within certain limits.
    Jun 3 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Digitimes reports of a pickup in BB10-related (BBRY -3.3%) component orders, Pac Crest's James Faucette claims Asian supply chain checks indicate BB10 phone production "remains well in excess of current sell-through demand." Faucette, who aired similar comments a month ago, thinks combined sell-through for the Q10/Z10 are "well below" 500K/month, while production has remained in the 1.5M-2M/month range, though a June slowdown is expected. He thinks there's potential for a write-down similar to the $752M charge taken on BB7/PlayBook inventory last year. [View news story]
    @cereal, as you know I have followed your comments for quite sometime now.

    On your comment about Pac Crest as having some of the best analyst - can you please provide some definitive proof about this (ideally links that provide some history)? Also, can you provide a track record of James Faucette - I will be very interested in reading this through.

    While you question the company for a plan to profitability could you also help provide a plan/breakdown over next quarters of how this bankruptcy of Blackberry will unfold (and in particular what are the key assumptions you are making along the way)? The reason I ask is because hopefully you will realize that there are a number of ifs and buts that you will encounter along that route in your argument. To substantiate my argument, as we all know, Apple went through the throes of near bankruptcy (and was bailed out by Bill Gates (twice) and the prince of Saudi Arabia) - I guess you would have made the same call about Apple back then - correct?

    Remember, Blackberry has ~$3B in cash on their books. Before you scoff away on that let me tell you a piece of history - before the dot com crash there was a very nice article in Forbes comparing Cisco with Lucent and who would survive in case there was a .com bust; do you know how much cash Cisco had on hand then - about $2 Billion while Lucent had a debt on their books of about $4+ Billion and we all know who survived and flourished. Don't underestimate the power of having this amount of cash. As you know I am also a fan of $NOK - the pangs that $NOK is going through currently are due to the large debt on their books. Debt is a padlock that can sink a good company. Currently, with $NOK, it is the $2B infusion provided by $MSFT every year and their patent portfolio that is helping them keep their head above the water.

    Remember, Blackberry already has BB10, BES 10, BBM, BBM Money in the bag and they have the money and resources to pummel through. All said and done the enterprise market is still Blackberry's domain and that is not going to change anytime soon (BYOD or otherwise).
    Jun 2 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @edicap, was your previous id @marcap? if so, then the content is nearly the same but there is a distinct change in tone :)

    IMHO, not all the points you listed out are on the mark. Gestures are quite intuitive and simple - once you get your prejudice out of the way - it also becomes addicting in a strange sort of way. More importantly, to help alleviate concerns about gestures, all Blackberry needs to do is support at least two gesture modes - Android and Blackberry; after the user unlocks the screen a Gesture selector could provide one to select Android or Blackberry (or Apple) and voila all the issues will be solved! - the peek gesture can continue to work in Android mode. IMO, this is a relatively simple change that Blackberry can introduce in one of the upcoming release of BB10 (since Blackberry supports multiple OS platforms this could be very logical step in that direction).

    You mention about $BBRY loosing steam by next year - many of us have shared adequate thoughts on why we think that is not true. I don't want to rehash it right now but if you want it to be rehashed I will be more than happy to share my thoughts. In a nutshell, Blackberry is growing itself to be a multi-faceted company way beyond the hardware - technically speaking, their eco system (BB10, BES, BBM, etc.) is geared for scaling along both the horizontal and vertical axis of the network, mobility, consumer and enterprise stack.

    Having support for Android platform is a big plus. All android apps can be sideloaded very easily. Also, be aware that BB10 will very likely support Mozilla platform down the line.

    Security is something that everybody should be concerned about and demand/expect. As they say, "you don't feel the pain until you experience loss" - in this age of information the concept of "loss" is rather amorphous; unfortunately, consumer awareness is abysmal and they are rather naive to the long term impact. (Government and Private) enterprises are dealing with "industrial espionage" everyday; their back offices see this happening day in and day out. Blackberry's legacy and current position as a leader in security is still intact and growing. IMO, the reason it took time to support Android's Jelly Bean platform is because Blackberry is very likely building a better than "Knox" support for securing Jelly Bean platform.

    Blackberry's service revenue model is evolving - they are still selling BB7s. BES 10, BBM and other service based offerings are not as yet out in the market. Don't discount this until you have seen the story unfold.

    Last but not the least I only hope I had that kind of money that I could buy 1 million+ shares of Blackberry - believe me, I would have bought it, for the long term, in a heartbeat.
    Jun 2 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) has upped its component purchases from Taiwanese suppliers thanks to strong BB10 sales, supply chain sources tell Digitimes. The sources add Indonesian and Middle Eastern sales are healthy, and that if other emerging markets prove strong, BlackBerry is likely to ship 30M-40M smartphones in 2013 - Feb. quarter shipments totaled 6M, and were down 23% Y/Y. BBRY +1% in spite of lower NASDAQ futures. The sell-side has been arguing back and forth over BB10's early reception. [View news story]
    I had a "surreal" moment today (I mean it in good terms :) I was using my Z10 and happened to click on an audio link through SoundCloud to listen in on a podcast and Z10 threw a popup saying that the website is attempting to gather personal information and that the access was blocked. It also warned me that following the link will end up compromising personal information on the device!

    I guess right there BB10 just saved me from inadvertently handing over personal data!
    May 31 10:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) has upped its component purchases from Taiwanese suppliers thanks to strong BB10 sales, supply chain sources tell Digitimes. The sources add Indonesian and Middle Eastern sales are healthy, and that if other emerging markets prove strong, BlackBerry is likely to ship 30M-40M smartphones in 2013 - Feb. quarter shipments totaled 6M, and were down 23% Y/Y. BBRY +1% in spite of lower NASDAQ futures. The sell-side has been arguing back and forth over BB10's early reception. [View news story]
    @thecatman, if it helps in anyway, just watch the first two lectures by Prof. Shiller on Yale's website (or through iTunes if you use a Mac). He shows week to week chart of Apple over last 6 years or so, you should see the gyrations that $AAPL went through and he says, "just look at those gyrations on a week to week basis, it must have been stomach churning for those who were invested in it..."
    May 31 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) has upped its component purchases from Taiwanese suppliers thanks to strong BB10 sales, supply chain sources tell Digitimes. The sources add Indonesian and Middle Eastern sales are healthy, and that if other emerging markets prove strong, BlackBerry is likely to ship 30M-40M smartphones in 2013 - Feb. quarter shipments totaled 6M, and were down 23% Y/Y. BBRY +1% in spite of lower NASDAQ futures. The sell-side has been arguing back and forth over BB10's early reception. [View news story]
    If you check the math Pacific Crest just bumped their estimates from 300k BB10 devices last quarter to 1.5 million per quarter. Which means they just increased their estimates ~5 folds! As the results will show yet again Pacific Crest is going to be way off the mark.

    Also, isn't it interesting that by repeatedly doing this they are causing folks who have been long thus far to give away their shares thus very likely helping the shorts cover their position?

    The enterprise purchase cycle here in US hasn't even kicked in as yet, second the BES 10 sales are still to show up on $BBRY's radar.
    May 31 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While Digitimes reports of a pickup in BB10-related (BBRY -3.3%) component orders, Pac Crest's James Faucette claims Asian supply chain checks indicate BB10 phone production "remains well in excess of current sell-through demand." Faucette, who aired similar comments a month ago, thinks combined sell-through for the Q10/Z10 are "well below" 500K/month, while production has remained in the 1.5M-2M/month range, though a June slowdown is expected. He thinks there's potential for a write-down similar to the $752M charge taken on BB7/PlayBook inventory last year. [View news story]
    It is amazing how commoners like us have to just standby and watch this while folks like James Faucette from Pac Crest and others can pretty much run amuck saying what they like with vague terms like "we believe". Lately it is happening so frequently with the option closing date that this coincidence reeks some form of blatant fraud! It is amazing that SEC lets this happen right under its nose.
    May 31 07:46 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @frankc, if security and capability to run both Android and BB10 apps on the same device is not something that you find compelling then I guess you don't have to buy a Blackberry. I don't think you can put Blackberry in the "proprietary" bucket (as iPhone) because it does allow you to sideload Android apps on BB10; it also has the fastest open HTML5 compliant platform); plus, it also gives you micro-USB based charging, a HDMI port and NFC! Other than that, IMO, it seems like price point is the sole motivation for your decision and that you get all you need with S3 - fair enough.

    BTW as side note: Through Google Chrome's Playbook App Manager plugin it is really simple of load .bar files on the Z10. I was able to sideload Netflix, Flipboard, TED Talks in about 5 minutes. Folks talking about Netflix not being available - well can't stop that rubbish but all I can say is that there is a slight (initial) delay in the Netflix app's response but the search functionality and the capability to play a movie works flawlessly!
    May 31 11:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) has upped its component purchases from Taiwanese suppliers thanks to strong BB10 sales, supply chain sources tell Digitimes. The sources add Indonesian and Middle Eastern sales are healthy, and that if other emerging markets prove strong, BlackBerry is likely to ship 30M-40M smartphones in 2013 - Feb. quarter shipments totaled 6M, and were down 23% Y/Y. BBRY +1% in spite of lower NASDAQ futures. The sell-side has been arguing back and forth over BB10's early reception. [View news story]
    Looks like $BBRY has a good handle/filler on the demand from the enterprise customers, in particular, as we know most of the enterprise customers are long due for a refresh. This also means that BES 10 orders will be filling in soon.

    The article talks about small sized "LCD" panels - does this mean Q5? I was under the impression that like Q10, Q5 also uses OLED. If so then what are these small sized "LCD" panels for. Z10 is based on LCD but the screen is not small sized.
    May 31 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    Frank/@manfredthree, IMO, for that to happen $BBRY will very likely have to move its headquarters to US.
    May 31 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @manfredtree, very well written. I know $ALU has some good technology but I am very worried about the debt load on their account books and the cost of laying off people in Europe - I think they still have some work left to clean up their balance sheet. Any insights on $ALU?

    As you correctly pointed out $BBRY is in a league of its own. They have grown their balance sheet when everybody expected them to actually bleed on their cash. Now they have the BB10 platform that is ready - in another 2 to 3 quarters they will have lot more services, apps and BB10 as a platform will become rock solid.
    May 31 09:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @stockaudit, I agree that all the concerns you listed are very much valid. Actually the way I see it a lot of people, like David, are probably procrastinating along similar lines - based purely on the recent downward movement in the stock price and all the negative news in the media. There are probably only a handful people like us who are in this with conviction and for the long run.

    IMO, at the current price you are practically getting $BBRY stock for "free" - I consider this opportunity similar to what "Helicopter Ben" has been doing to our US housing market and the economy at large. I am more than happy to buy on the dips and I have been doing just that.
    May 30 10:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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