BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]
George, who are the other competitors in this space who can be considered as an alternative for this contract?
The earlier some of these bonehead analyst figure this out the better! I am sure when $BBRY does get this contract these same analyst and media reporters will spin the news as "US Army/DoD throws a much needed lifeline to Blackberry, but can it save Blackberry given that their BB10 devices are not in demand here in US?"
Thanks to @Yosemite Wealth and @sonbuster for posting those DoD links on stock talk a couple of days back. The surprising thing is that not one media outlet has published this news - they eagerly jumped over each other to post the false news that Army is going to replace $BBRY devices with Apple and Android devices.
The level of dysfunction and corruption in today's media is appalling to say the least.
Wow! you do seem to make animated conversations with the sales people in the store. I don't know about you but I usually don't have such conversations with sales people. Anyway, numbers will speak for themselves soon. I for one booked my order online without walking into the store - I did go to two Costco and one AT&T store to enquire about the Z10 last week and then I ordered it online from Costco. I think there will be quite a few like me who are ordering it online. But well, I don't want to spoil your experience.
I guess your next post will be - "after you went back to the store to now buy the new Z10 I heard the same story and so I decided no point in buying this loser" :)
Have a wonderful family time watching Les Miserables with your family.
Why Opening Up BBM Is The Right Move For BlackBerry [View article]
Could it also be possible that it "sweetens" the pot for DoD to decide on Blackberry - as BBM creates a single secure messaging platform available across iPhone, Android and Blackberry. It also facilitates using a consistent set of policies managed through BES 10. Additionally, it would also allow DoD to create and run their own internal BBM Channels.
If DoD does go with BBM as the preferred messaging platform then it is very likely that other government services will align with Blackberry as well. A nice side effect of this will be that BBM could very quickly become a de facto messaging gateway.
Haven't we seen this trend with WSJ and Guardian all along @skylark99? I personally would hate to go out in cold and queue outside a store to buy the phone. I would rather have it delivered to my house. Mind you I stay in the Bay Area, CA :)
Don't worry they did the exact same thing with Nokia. Actually, with Nokia I went to quite a few AT&T stores and AT&T was so bad that they wouldn't even charge up those phones! With Blackberry they are at least aware that Z10 was coming.
I thought I would never say this but I truly believe that the stock is being heavily manipulated - classic Cramer style. All they have to do is to start the downward movement with a sizable order and then let the domino effect of stop losses take over. I hope SEC will seriously investigate the trading tapes and these well timed media reports and those reporters.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
A very good idea Michael. What would help is a questionnaire that folks could follow up on.
I am in US and as you know the Z10 is still not available. I got to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to a visiting friend of mine. It is very light and has a slate like (cardboard-ish) feel to it - the UI is very smooth as well; the applications also launch very quickly. The doc to go provides lot more features to edit and format a document - much more than what I get on my Lumia 920 - I was pleasantly surprised about that. The transition between the Hub, Active Frames and Apps is very smooth and intuitive - I don't know why some of the bloggers say that it is confusing.
Overall in the 10 minutes or so that I got to play with the Z10 - I have to say that, I found it to be very intuitive and I have to give pretty high marks to Z10.
BlackBerry 10: It's Shiny, It's New, But Will It Sell? [View article]
@robbieboggie excellent detail - that is what I call a true quantitative outline! I have only found a few SA authors (like: Caiman Valores) who really take the effort and provide the level of detail as outlined by you. I sincerely hope that folks on SA (and authors included) will take time to read your response in its entirety. As you have mentioned you pretty much have discounted all other sources of revenue (other than their phone) - so i think it is very conservative outline - although for 2013 I would think that the margins may very well be around 30%. The news coming out of Canada that 50% of folks buying Z10 were switching from an iPhone or a Android was also very encouraging. If Blackberry just maintains its turf - we should see some good returns; coupled with that as Heins/Thor mentioned in the worst scenario the BIS related revenue is not going anywhere for another 1 1/2 to 2 years - I think folks are discounting this fact as well. Given the recent hacks and security breaches I think it is more likely that Federal, State and Local governments, Defense, Financial and Healthcare business (here in US and in other countries) will continue to use their Blackberry devices.
If you don't mind please post your response as an article on SA - IMO it is well worth it - if nothing else, it will provide readers who may have missed reading this article or may not have read all the responses a chance to realize the true worth of Blackberry in the near term future.
I am glad that Blackberry has Prem Watsa (Fairfax Investments) on their board. I for one plan to hold on to my investments in Blackberry until Prem Watsa continues to serve on Blackberry's board. Second, even though people have been very critical of Mike Lazaridis (as a co-CEO) I for one think that he laid the ground work (through his vision) for creating the BB10 platform; per Prem Watsa, Mike is a brilliant man (in that sense, I think Mike is comparable to Steve Woz.). Like Prem puts it - you will see the fruits of BB10 in the next 2 to 3 years as the BB10 saga unfolds.
Wells Fargo who had downgraded Blackberry (post its last quarter) has now upgraded Blackberry to Outperform! Now that makes you wonder their motive.
BlackBerry (BBRY +2%) spikes higher on rumors Carl Icahn has bought a stake in the company. H-P was the beneficiary of such rumors a couple weeks ago. Earlier today, Scotia Capital argued a strategic partner such as IBM (once reported to be interested in BBRY's network operations centers) is likely to buy the company. [View news story]
The jump in the stock is quite measured so it is obvious that folks are not convinced about the rumor (which to me is good news). IMO, such rumors (like bear attacks) do not do any good to the stock, just brings more volatility in the mix.
I am happy about the fact that Prem Watsa is invested in $BBRY - his personal track record of returning 27% year over year for 27 years speaks for itself (even beats Warren Buffett's track record in terms of the duration). I am at peace with my investment in $BBRY knowing that Prem Watsa and his team has done sufficient due diligence. If it does turn out that Icahn is indeed invested in $BBRY that will be an icing on the cake.
Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
@Paul Santos
I have read through your article in detail along with the comments from some of the bastions of Nokia stock - these folks like Caleb23, Luke, jtalpha75, Systembolaget and others who are the bulwarks (as you might have seen from their comments) have been cautiously following through Nokia's progress over the year and have being doing their study/homework on this subject. Your primary premise for caution is the year end selling triggered by reason to save on taxes - I agree that it would have some impact on the markets as a whole but, it won't be solely targeted on Nokia alone (if at all it ever materializes). In this respect, I find your argument to be on thin ice.
If you read all the write-ups related to Nokia on SA you will find that folks have been very honest in what they say and try to back it with solid data and, try to seek it when some data is missing.
Your warning is fair and well taken but it would help if you can provide anecdotal numbers to show a pattern that you have seen in the markets with respect to other stocks that were in similar situation (a turn around story) and met with similar fate. Without such data your assertion is merely a personal opinion.
As Caleb23 and others have pointed out there are quite a bit of things that are happening with Nokia which is truly pointing in the positive direction. We (those of us who are long) tend to believe that this was long coming. As evidenced, over last two days the stock has sold 3X and 2X times its daily volume, with 2X being on half day of trading - with the stock being substantially higher. Technically speaking Monday should also be a positive day to truly signal a trend - we will have to wait and see. There is no denial amongst us that there is a possibility that Nokia may move down again but overall we know that the direction is positive long term - and in particular, don't believe that Nokia is going bankrupt anymore.
All in all if you make a call on SA please try to provide substantial evidence to prove your point of view. As an example of what I mean look at the articles written by Caiman Valores - he is a guy who provides very detailed evidence when he makes a particular call - that is what I am talking about. It takes courage to write an article on SA and I applaud you for that; but, an author should not fail on his/her duty to point (/clearly delineate) facts from personal opinions.
BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double [View article]
IMO, it will be another quarter or two of bleed in subscriber base with continued improvements in gross margins and cash reserves. So my take is that the stock will remain in this range during this period. Once the number of apps crosses about 250k and the BB10 platform becomes more matured, things will start chugging along at a new pace. My only hope is that Q10 and BES 10 will carry the day for $BBRY over next 2 quarters and then there is no turning back.
Any company that goes through such a major change (e.g. Apple) takes at least 2 years to study the ship and complete the change of course. $BBRY is just in its first year of the launch of BB10 - give it some more time and until then just sit back and relax :)
Exactly Wilsonia - some of these SA Authors are spinning false stories which is really irresponsible on their part. IMO, they are doing a disservice to the SA community.
BBM Cross Platform Means Gold For BlackBerry [View article]
Kurt, thanks a lot for putting together this timely article.
With BBM soon to be available on other major platforms, if it succeeds will turn out to be a scalable, cross platform, secure Tumblr + Twitter + FB/Instagram + Paypal + Skype + more rolled into one that is seamlessly tailored for P2P (using Pins, and NFC), B2C and B2B markets and will be able to leverage $BBRY's NOC.
In terms of features, initially you will see high value brands signing up for their own channels. In addition, in the future you will very likely see: - peek and flow experience "channeled" through BBM (with BBM exposing APIs that will enable tighter integration into those platform and their apps). - deals that could be tailored to your individual preferences/buying patterns - channel stores hosted and directly accessible through BBM - large and small enterprises getting an alternative to Facebook for channeling targeted marketing - with BBM Money + NFC integration, Blackberry could soon be Paypal++ - with highly secure messaging, Healthcare enterprises and others could leverage $BBRY NOC to exchange information (pin to pin) between the patient, pharmacy and your healthcare provider - possibilities of universities pushing their own channels (iTunes U) through BBM (?) - and more...
A lot of the above areas can become rich revenue sources for $BBRY. Not sure why the analyst are myopic to these possibilities.
Now we are getting a glimpse on why Thorsten says that the desktop app experience is not the correct paradigm for mobility.
BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]
Thanks Kurt, in fact when I read those lines about what the Army was looking from in MDM solution it almost felt like they had (almost) cut and pasted the some of the key salient points of BES 10 platform!
Per Heins about 4k customers are already in the final stages of approval for a BES10 platform in their enterprise and another 4k customers have signed up for the program.
I very much like your thought that from a revenue standpoint all non $BBRY devices become $BBRY devices generating a nice stream of yearly revenue for $BBRY (but who is going to explain this to some of those dunderhead analyst and equally clueless reporters?).
BlackBerry Bullish On News Of Q10 Release [View article]
Lein, Vlad is the only one amongst a number of others who have been negative on $BBRY who has graciously updated his stance on $BBRY futur, kudos to him on that.
BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]
The earlier some of these bonehead analyst figure this out the better! I am sure when $BBRY does get this contract these same analyst and media reporters will spin the news as "US Army/DoD throws a much needed lifeline to Blackberry, but can it save Blackberry given that their BB10 devices are not in demand here in US?"
Thanks to @Yosemite Wealth and @sonbuster for posting those DoD links on stock talk a couple of days back. The surprising thing is that not one media outlet has published this news - they eagerly jumped over each other to post the false news that Army is going to replace $BBRY devices with Apple and Android devices.
The level of dysfunction and corruption in today's media is appalling to say the least.
Some Signs BlackBerry May Be Back [View article]
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
I guess your next post will be - "after you went back to the store to now buy the new Z10 I heard the same story and so I decided no point in buying this loser" :)
Have a wonderful family time watching Les Miserables with your family.
Why Opening Up BBM Is The Right Move For BlackBerry [View article]
If DoD does go with BBM as the preferred messaging platform then it is very likely that other government services will align with Blackberry as well. A nice side effect of this will be that BBM could very quickly become a de facto messaging gateway.
BlackBerry: Z Is For Zero [View article]
Don't worry they did the exact same thing with Nokia. Actually, with Nokia I went to quite a few AT&T stores and AT&T was so bad that they wouldn't even charge up those phones! With Blackberry they are at least aware that Z10 was coming.
I thought I would never say this but I truly believe that the stock is being heavily manipulated - classic Cramer style. All they have to do is to start the downward movement with a sizable order and then let the domino effect of stop losses take over. I hope SEC will seriously investigate the trading tapes and these well timed media reports and those reporters.
Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving [View article]
I am in US and as you know the Z10 is still not available. I got to play with a Z10 yesterday - thanks to a visiting friend of mine. It is very light and has a slate like (cardboard-ish) feel to it - the UI is very smooth as well; the applications also launch very quickly. The doc to go provides lot more features to edit and format a document - much more than what I get on my Lumia 920 - I was pleasantly surprised about that. The transition between the Hub, Active Frames and Apps is very smooth and intuitive - I don't know why some of the bloggers say that it is confusing.
Overall in the 10 minutes or so that I got to play with the Z10 - I have to say that, I found it to be very intuitive and I have to give pretty high marks to Z10.
BlackBerry 10: It's Shiny, It's New, But Will It Sell? [View article]
If you don't mind please post your response as an article on SA - IMO it is well worth it - if nothing else, it will provide readers who may have missed reading this article or may not have read all the responses a chance to realize the true worth of Blackberry in the near term future.
I am glad that Blackberry has Prem Watsa (Fairfax Investments) on their board. I for one plan to hold on to my investments in Blackberry until Prem Watsa continues to serve on Blackberry's board. Second, even though people have been very critical of Mike Lazaridis (as a co-CEO) I for one think that he laid the ground work (through his vision) for creating the BB10 platform; per Prem Watsa, Mike is a brilliant man (in that sense, I think Mike is comparable to Steve Woz.). Like Prem puts it - you will see the fruits of BB10 in the next 2 to 3 years as the BB10 saga unfolds.
Wells Fargo who had downgraded Blackberry (post its last quarter) has now upgraded Blackberry to Outperform! Now that makes you wonder their motive.
BlackBerry (BBRY +2%) spikes higher on rumors Carl Icahn has bought a stake in the company. H-P was the beneficiary of such rumors a couple weeks ago. Earlier today, Scotia Capital argued a strategic partner such as IBM (once reported to be interested in BBRY's network operations centers) is likely to buy the company. [View news story]
I am happy about the fact that Prem Watsa is invested in $BBRY - his personal track record of returning 27% year over year for 27 years speaks for itself (even beats Warren Buffett's track record in terms of the duration). I am at peace with my investment in $BBRY knowing that Prem Watsa and his team has done sufficient due diligence. If it does turn out that Icahn is indeed invested in $BBRY that will be an icing on the cake.
Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
I have read through your article in detail along with the comments from some of the bastions of Nokia stock - these folks like Caleb23, Luke, jtalpha75, Systembolaget and others who are the bulwarks (as you might have seen from their comments) have been cautiously following through Nokia's progress over the year and have being doing their study/homework on this subject. Your primary premise for caution is the year end selling triggered by reason to save on taxes - I agree that it would have some impact on the markets as a whole but, it won't be solely targeted on Nokia alone (if at all it ever materializes). In this respect, I find your argument to be on thin ice.
If you read all the write-ups related to Nokia on SA you will find that folks have been very honest in what they say and try to back it with solid data and, try to seek it when some data is missing.
Your warning is fair and well taken but it would help if you can provide anecdotal numbers to show a pattern that you have seen in the markets with respect to other stocks that were in similar situation (a turn around story) and met with similar fate. Without such data your assertion is merely a personal opinion.
As Caleb23 and others have pointed out there are quite a bit of things that are happening with Nokia which is truly pointing in the positive direction. We (those of us who are long) tend to believe that this was long coming. As evidenced, over last two days the stock has sold 3X and 2X times its daily volume, with 2X being on half day of trading - with the stock being substantially higher. Technically speaking Monday should also be a positive day to truly signal a trend - we will have to wait and see. There is no denial amongst us that there is a possibility that Nokia may move down again but overall we know that the direction is positive long term - and in particular, don't believe that Nokia is going bankrupt anymore.
All in all if you make a call on SA please try to provide substantial evidence to prove your point of view. As an example of what I mean look at the articles written by Caiman Valores - he is a guy who provides very detailed evidence when he makes a particular call - that is what I am talking about. It takes courage to write an article on SA and I applaud you for that; but, an author should not fail on his/her duty to point (/clearly delineate) facts from personal opinions.
Best Regards and Happy Thanksgiving.
BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double [View article]
Any company that goes through such a major change (e.g. Apple) takes at least 2 years to study the ship and complete the change of course. $BBRY is just in its first year of the launch of BB10 - give it some more time and until then just sit back and relax :)
Where Is BlackBerry Heading? [View article]
BBM Cross Platform Means Gold For BlackBerry [View article]
With BBM soon to be available on other major platforms, if it succeeds will turn out to be a scalable, cross platform, secure Tumblr + Twitter + FB/Instagram + Paypal + Skype + more rolled into one that is seamlessly tailored for P2P (using Pins, and NFC), B2C and B2B markets and will be able to leverage $BBRY's NOC.
In terms of features, initially you will see high value brands signing up for their own channels. In addition, in the future you will very likely see:
- peek and flow experience "channeled" through BBM (with BBM exposing APIs that will enable tighter integration into those platform and their apps).
- deals that could be tailored to your individual preferences/buying patterns
- channel stores hosted and directly accessible through BBM
- large and small enterprises getting an alternative to Facebook for channeling targeted marketing
- with BBM Money + NFC integration, Blackberry could soon be Paypal++
- with highly secure messaging, Healthcare enterprises and others could leverage $BBRY NOC to exchange information (pin to pin) between the patient, pharmacy and your healthcare provider
- possibilities of universities pushing their own channels (iTunes U) through BBM (?)
- and more...
A lot of the above areas can become rich revenue sources for $BBRY. Not sure why the analyst are myopic to these possibilities.
Now we are getting a glimpse on why Thorsten says that the desktop app experience is not the correct paradigm for mobility.
BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]
Per Heins about 4k customers are already in the final stages of approval for a BES10 platform in their enterprise and another 4k customers have signed up for the program.
I very much like your thought that from a revenue standpoint all non $BBRY devices become $BBRY devices generating a nice stream of yearly revenue for $BBRY (but who is going to explain this to some of those dunderhead analyst and equally clueless reporters?).
BlackBerry Bullish On News Of Q10 Release [View article]
BlackBerry: The Killer Punch Will Be Security [View article]