oneinfiniteloop's  Instablog

I had bought Blackberry Playbook along with my Lumia 900 around July/August 2012 and back then I wasn't aware that Blackberry had a plan to release BB10 platform - how ignorant of me. What I was most impressed about the Playbook was its front and back 1080 camera and mini HDMI port along with their QNX operating system and BBM. I have worked in the past with real-time OS'es and had also implemented one myself (the one I wrote was good enough to run cruise control and other apps in a car with limited compute and memory resources) and I had studied early incarnation of QNX back then and was thoroughly impressed.

Around that time I was pretty impressed with my Lumia 900 and so I did a lot of technical due diligence on Windows Phone 8 platform and Nokia's differentiation at the level of hardware, application and eco-system and came out pretty impressed with what Microsoft and Nokia had done. Unfortunately because I wasn't aware about Blackberry's BB10 phone I didn't buy Blackberry when their stock was at $5.80. My only grip about Blackberry Playbook was that at that time I couldn't install and run Android applications (that support came later in the OS 2 release) - apparently BB10 now allows one to run Android applications (although my initial take away was that they were a bit slow). I also had found that their internet browser was slow as well. I did write about this on my earlier post. Over last two days I have seen all the latest demo videos out there and it has blown my mind on what BB10 provides as a platform.

As far as $RIMM goes I think they have truly carried forward the idea of Microsoft's Windows 8 Live Titles to a new level and have not only neatly integrated the Live Tiles UI with their Messaging Hub (BBM) but, have also truly changed the playing field in terms of application level integration.

Microsoft and Nokia have also achieved application level integration in the current Windows 8 platform but is currently limited to certain specific applications (e.g. look at Camera and the extensions that you can drop into it).

The differentiator as far as the BB10 platform goes is that they have integrated cross cutting features as "aspects" and make them available to any application (and these can be pulled in seamlessly with simple finger gestures).

Apart from some of the features like peek, flow, cascade, etc. they also seamlessly integrate all forms of messages (emails, tweets, etc.) as incoming events - which to me is a key differentiator over and above their secure email exchange. Microsoft/Nokia also supports this capability but as far as I know it is not bubbled up as transparently as on finds in the BB10 platform.

Last but not the least they provide means to run Android applications - I think this will be a key driver that will drive $RIMM sales and take a bite out of Samsung revenue. It won't be too far fetched to say that in the next few months BB10 will be to Android what Usain Bolt is to Sprint. If that was not all, they have made their entire platform open - which means a lot of school/college kids and hackers will also be gravitating towards it.

On the financial side, $RIMM has >$2B cash in hand and their market cap is 6B which means market is really valuing them at less than $4B - which is a 30% discount on $RIMM's current stock price!

IMO, BB10 doesn't necessarily have to be blockbuster for the stock to move higher (and that is why I took a long position in $RIMM at $11.98). With no debt on their books, I don't believe that $RIMM is going bankrupt; and, since their stocks outstanding (float) is comparatively small ~500M coupled with the fact that 65% of that is held by financial institutions and the short interest is ~30% - I think there is a very high possibility of a true short squeeze occurring on $RIMM's stock.

All in all, I am thoroughly impressed by the work that both $RIMM, $MSFT and $NOK have done to build an eco-system that can stand on its own and truly compete with the likes of $APPL, and Samsung. I am personally convinced that together $RIMM and $NOK will take a sizeable bite out of the share of Samsung (and to a much lesser extent Apple). Last but not the least I am also of the opinion that BB10 very likely will use $NOK maps.

I am long $NOK and now $RIMM.

Disclosure: I am long RIMM, NOK, MSFT.

For those who have been following the discussion about Nokia on Seeking Alpha, there is quite a bit of chatter about Nokia's sales in USA, Europe, China, India, etc. As an investor, I think we all are very interested in knowing what is going on on the ground.

I am writing this instablog to collect data on how many folks actually bought the Nokia Lumia 920. The only way I can think of to collect this data is if you can leave a short comment on this instablog.

Please consider this as a grass roots movement on Seeking Alpha to help gather data. If you or your friends bought a Lumia 920 or 820 please click on the Like button. Lets be honest and leave a comment with the number of Lumia's that were actually bought - no cheating please :) I will collect the data and update the results periodically.

Please leave a comment where you bought (US, Europe, China, India, etc.) - no binding on this, if you don't want to include your location that is fine.

Disclosure: I am long NOK.

I wrote this in response to a comment made by @eldaedhel which I believe captures what Nokia has done since the letter sent out by Elop about their burning platform.

I am not sure if you will agree with me but, IMO, the very day Nokia decided to burn their Symbian platform implicitly they signed themselves up to a tiered market for their products. In a way Windows Phone 8 platform is very similar to Android in that a device manufacturer can only make good margins if they can clearly differentiate themselves from their peers on the quality of their individual offerings and how they are able to effectively build and augment the base eco system to help create a niche offering and differentiation in the minds of their customers and partners - in this case, Nokia is creating its niche augmentation to the new windows 8 eco system (from the hardware and above) by offering their own home grown best in class Camera, Sensors (GPS, etc.), NFC, highly touch sensitive user experience; to platform level services like Maps, High data compression ratio; to application software - Nokia Drive+, Augmented Reality/City Lens, Free Nokia Music, etc. - so when one buys a Nokia product they are really getting a Windows Eco System++ which no other competitor within that system is able to offer.

The majority of the reviews that I have been hearing is how Nokia is better than or weaker than iPhone or a Android and not its own peers within the Windows 8 eco system. In my opinion, this in and by itself is an excellent foot holding that Nokia will monetize eventually. A companies financials definitely has its place and a smart investor should have a keen eye on it; but, when a company like Nokia is pulling itself out of a situation like they are in right now one also has to consider if they are creating a product pipeline that will carry them through over the next 5 to 10 year window. In this respect, I think Nokia is doing an excellent job. All the other portfolios (NSN, Patents, NAVTEQ) are now profitable the only thing that is lagging right now is their D&S business portfolio and that should turn corner in the next quarter or two. It won't be wrong to say that Nokia is turning itself into a full service enterprise addressing the entire length of the network.

Another slant to the above argument could also be that when you are trying to get a patient in critical state back to normal you as a doctor would see the health parameters swing in different areas, a doctor has to choose which of them should be watched at and which of them will come back to normal once the vitals are back. I think Elop's call in this major restructuring phase is to let the COGS be high in the interim because as the sales pickup Nokia will have created a market for itself within this eco system (like: through patents; platform services like: Maps, Imaging, etc.; and, application level offerings like: Nokia Drive+ and, others to come, available on other peer platforms, etc. If that is not all it will also allow the application developers to augment Nokia's offering like: Camera, NFC, etc. through their own extensions - not sure if Nokia will be able to monetize anything on this front).

The reason I listed all the above was to show you that there are a number of fronts which have a potential to help study the financial aspects of Nokia.

Personally, I am betting on Nokia's augmentation and innovation capability as being far, far superior to its peers and I am hopeful that this will lay a solid foundation for its future. It is the only company that, I think, is silently making a foray into the enterprise market and if I am not mistaken with the buyout of imaging company Scaladon, will be able to offer products for the enterprise verticals like health care, printing, etc and supply chain in general. So, in due course probably time for Xerox, HP and others to watch out as well.

Nokia is not going to go bust anytime soon this eco system and its augmentation is going to take 2+ years to take create deep roots so until then the stock will get trashed around, for those who stick with it may have a wholesome return in the end.

My only concern is that AT&Ts sales rep are not presenting the above clear differentiators to a potential buyer. In a way, when you carry a Nokia its "weight" of innovation shows in every way and can make you feel comfortable that you, as the user, are not getting short chained and are covered on all fronts as far as the user experience goes :)

Disclosure: I am long NOK.